Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

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uzzi38

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DAPUNISHER

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If nothing else it should indicate that AMD is eventually (no idea when Navi 32 will hit the market) going to offer 6900XT performance for ~$700.
I know what you mean, but the 6900XT can be had for less than that now. LOL. Of course the new card will do it on much less power.
 
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maddie

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That's why they won't do it. Su was pretty clear in terms of AMD's ASP and cutting prices in general during their Earnings Call a few days ago.

If they got a GPU which can match the 4090 (even though if it's only in raster) they'll price it accordingly. Not as high as NV - because AMD simply can't to be honest, mainly because of 'mindshare' - but I'd say somewhere around $1400. Still a lot, but $200 less is still a decent amount.
The problem with that thinking, if they're so inclined, is that $200 extra for NVIDIA is very acceptable to the buyers in that price range.
 
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jpiniero

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What they do against the 4080 will be far more interesting in my opinion. I think they can easily beat that and at a much better price. I also wonder if their plans have changed at all due to the 12 GB 4080 getting canceled. Does AMD also hold back whatever they might have launched to compete with that?

They already have a product for that - the 6900 XT. Which currently goes for less than the 4080 12 GB. Albeit at very crappy margins...
 

Saylick

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That's why they won't do it. Su was pretty clear in terms of AMD's ASP and cutting prices in general during their Earnings Call a few days ago.

If they got a GPU which can match the 4090 (even though if it's only in raster) they'll price it accordingly. Not as high as NV - because AMD simply can't to be honest, mainly because of 'mindshare' - but I'd say somewhere around $1400. Still a lot, but $200 less is still a decent amount.
I have to agree with @maddie here. $200 is too close.

If we were in the midst of the crypto boom, I'd agree, but the macro situation has changed. Given that N31 has a slightly higher BOM cost in comparison to N21, they should just aim to keep margins roughly in line with those they got when N21 sold at MSRP. Asking for higher margins in this economic environment is just greed, in my opinion. Instead, they should use any available wafer supply from TSMC to ship more units.
 

utahraptor

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Does anyone know how many flagship cards they sell on a given generation? I consider myself fairly well off and I would like to buy one of these or even the 4090 but it seems I already missed that boat as I won’t pay a scalper. I only know one person that would buy a top tier card so I just wonder where they all end up. I fear this will be another 2 years of not being able to pay msrp.
 

Rekluse

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That's why they won't do it. Su was pretty clear in terms of AMD's ASP and cutting prices in general during their Earnings Call a few days ago.

And it's both sad and borderline delusional. AMD, specifically in Graphics, is still perceived as an also ran compared to nVidia . They just don't have the brand recognition to pull it off. It's a marketshare momentum thing.

The more people buy AMD cards, the more people are willing to buy AMD in the future. The less brand loyalists for the competitor. Especially when you have a BOM price advantage and a less messed up inventory situation than they do.

It really is tactically short sighted to go the high ASP route on this one.

Mixing up their CPU strategy and positioning with their GPU strategy and positioning. Zen 1 had to offer more cores at a lower price than intel, Only in the last 2 gen's have they finally earned their pricing parity position and really go high ASP.
 

DAPUNISHER

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Agreed on pricing. It should be priced the same as the 4080 which will make it compelling. It is highly unlikely to have feature parity with Nvidia. Probably lag behind on ray tracing. And unless they unveil hardware FSR that is as good or better, that is another box unchecked for the sales and marketing.

If they didn't learn their lesson with AM5 pricing and the cold reception, it will be ugly for them.
 

DAPUNISHER

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I fear this will be another 2 years of not being able to pay msrp.
Nvidia is manipulating supply to clear out 30 series inventory. AMD is likely to have plenty of stock on release because as pointed out above, supply isn't so stacked up.
 

H T C

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If they didn't learn their lesson with AM5 pricing and the cold reception, it will be ugly for them.

They should "aim for the jugular": price the fastest card in their lineup LOWER than the 4080 16 GB, while revising the price of their 6000 series YET AGAIN. This would also make nVida's stock of 3000 series cards that much harder to get rid of.

AMD's profits would take a nose dive with such a move, but NOWHERE NEAR as much as nVidia's, but that's not the best part: @ a time where lower prices matter more than ever before (in recent years), this SHOULD make their market share rise substantially, PROVIDED they manage to have enough cards for sale.

THEN, with their RDNA 4 (or whatever it's called), they could raise prices again (not to "stupid" levels PLEASE) and, with much higher market share, they should make A TON of money.
 
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gdansk

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Agreed on pricing. It should be priced the same as the 4080 which will make it compelling. It is highly unlikely to have feature parity with Nvidia. Probably lag behind on ray tracing. And unless they unveil hardware FSR that is as good or better, that is another box unchecked for the sales and marketing.

If they didn't learn their lesson with AM5 pricing and the cold reception, it will be ugly for them.
And at $1200 it is still a higher ASP than before so they satisfy their finance wonks.
 
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DAPUNISHER

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They should "aim for the jugular": price the fastest card in their lineup LOWER than the 4080 16 GB, while revising the price of their 6000 series YET AGAIN. This would also make nVida's stock of 3000 series cards that much harder to get rid of.

AMD's profits would take a nose dive with such a move, but NOWHERE NEAR as much as nVidia's, but that's not the best part: @ a time where lower prices matter more than ever before (in recent years), this SHOULD make their market share rise substantially, PROVIDED they manage to have enough cards for sale.

THEN, with their RDNA 4 (or whatever it's called), they could raise prices again (not to "stupid" levels PLEASE) and, with much higher market share, they should make A TON of money.
It's bold, it's aggressive, I dig it. Problem comes from shoppers being dumb. They know the price of everything, but the value of nothing, as the saying goes. If you price it too low, they think it sucks and don't buy it. If you price it too close to the leader they buy the leader citing another old expression - You get what you pay for. It has to be in the Goldie Locks Zone IMO.
 

maddie

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And it's both sad and borderline delusional. AMD, specifically in Graphics, is still perceived as an also ran compared to nVidia . They just don't have the brand recognition to pull it off. It's a marketshare momentum thing.

The more people buy AMD cards, the more people are willing to buy AMD in the future. The less brand loyalists for the competitor. Especially when you have a BOM price advantage and a less messed up inventory situation than they do.

It really is tactically short sighted to go the high ASP route on this one.

Mixing up their CPU strategy and positioning with their GPU strategy and positioning. Zen 1 had to offer more cores at a lower price than intel, Only in the last 2 gen's have they finally earned their pricing parity position and really go high ASP.
Agreed. If they price too high, it will be ignoring the real present differences between the divisions.
 

H T C

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It's bold, it's aggressive, I dig it. Problem comes from shoppers being dumb. They know the price of everything, but the value of nothing, as the saying goes. If you price it too low, they think it sucks and don't buy it. If you price it too close to the leader they buy the leader citing another old expression - You get what you pay for. It has to be in the Goldie Locks Zone IMO.

That's what reviews are for: if they show nVidia being beaten, i don't see a problem.

Besides, it worked with Zen 1: why wouldn't it work with RDNA 3?

SO LONG AS THERE IS AVAILABILITY OF CARDS, this could work VERY WELL.
 
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Joe NYC

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Although their GPUs will be the main focus of this, I hope they throw in a sneak preview of a Zen 4 v-cache CPU at the end.

Anyone have any bold predictions for the event today? It almost feels a little anticlimactic right now given how fast the hype train is typically rolling through in this thread. The calm before the storm?

AMD should compare 13900K + 4900 vs. N31 + 8 core Zen 4 3D in gaming.
Compare on:
- Price
- performance
- power consumption

But my expectation is that AMD marketing will drop the ball, and let this fantastic opportunity pass them by

The comparison of:

Performance / Price
Performance / Power Consumption

Would give AMD such a compelling case - probably > 50% advantage on the ratios - that it would be mindboggling if AMD does not make this case.

Edit: maybe not > 50%, but quite high...
 
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DAPUNISHER

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That's what reviews are for: if they show nVidia being beaten, i don't see a problem.
I will show you the problem. :D Every good reviewer talks about how AMD wins in almost every price tier for gaming. Particularly at the lower levels. Yet the GTX 1650 and 1050ti sell better than the RX6600 even when they are only $20-$30 apart. It makes no sense, but those are the Nvidia offerings in that price range, and all the dude bros buy them.

Nvidia owns the market right now. Ray tracing, DLSS, NVENC, and AMD HAZ TEH BAD DRIVERZ!!1! AMD is going to have to pull a rabbit out of hat to take any real market share right now.

EDIT: I don't think it can go like Zen. Zen lead the way on threads per dollar. The GPU division is constantly playing catch up with Nvidia features. Even when they do get them, it takes forever, if at all, for software to support them. No matter what AMD does in graphics the press reaction is at best a -

bjpenn-headnod.gif
 
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blckgrffn

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I am hoping they deliver something in volume at the $800 price point. I know that seems high, but if it can be faster, more efficient and in all things better than a 3080Ti at that price, it's going to be in a position to put a lot of pressure on nvidias lineup.

If the 3080 has to crowd down, it's going to really compress nvidias offerings considering right now they offer nothing current for less than $250.

$800, $1050 and $1200. That's what I am thinking :D
 

H T C

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I will show you the problem. :D Every good reviewer talks about how AMD wins in almost every price tier for gaming. Particularly at the lower levels. Yet the GTX 1650 and 1050ti sell better than the RX6600 even when they are only $20-$30 apart. It makes no sense, but those are the Nvidia offerings in that price range, and all the dude bros buy them.

Nvidia owns the market right now. Ray tracing, DLSS, NVENC, and AMD HAZ TEH BAD DRIVERZ!!1! AMD is going to have to pull a rabbit out of hat to take any real market share right now.

True, but that's with the fastest card being from nVidia AND the price / performance not being HEAVILY in favor of AMD, but that's not the biggest factor, IMO: the biggest factor is that, unlike before, we're now in a rather severe economic downturn, meaning price will matter A LOT MORE than before.
 

DAPUNISHER

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True, but that's with the fastest card being from nVidia AND the price / performance not being HEAVILY in favor of AMD, but that's not the biggest factor, IMO: the biggest factor is that, unlike before, we're now in a rather severe economic downturn, meaning price will matter A LOT MORE than before.
I thought that too, until the 4090s flew off the shelf. The pandemic changed gamers perception of sticker shock. I don't think it will ever return to the way it was. AMD has been winning on bang for buck since the market settled down. Yet they can't touch Nvidia sales.
 

eek2121

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I thought that too, until the 4090s flew off the shelf. The pandemic changed gamers perception of sticker shock. I don't think it will ever return to the way it was. AMD has been winning on bang for buck since the market settled down. Yet they can't touch Nvidia sales.

A lot more people have decent paying jobs thanks to remote work driving up salaries. More money = more disposable income.

Impatiently waiting on presentation lol.
 

H T C

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I thought that too, until the 4090s flew off the shelf. The pandemic changed gamers perception of sticker shock. I don't think it will ever return to the way it was. AMD has been winning on bang for buck since the market settled down. Yet they can't touch Nvidia sales.

That's because there were few of those cards to begin with AND there's no competitor YET from AMD: not the same circumstances.

If the 7900 XTX ends up having @ least the same performance as a 4090 AND is priced @ ... say ... $1100, do you honestly think nVidia will still sell 4080s or 4090s as easily as you suggest?
 

DAPUNISHER

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That's because there were few of those cards to begin with AND there's no competitor YET from AMD: not the same circumstances.

If the 7900 XTX ends up having @ least the same performance as a 4090 AND is priced @ ... say ... $1100, do you honestly think nVidia will still sell 4080s or 4090s as easily as you suggest?
That's a fair point. Conceded.

But yeah, I do think they will still outsell AMD easily, same as always, unless the magic trick is really good. When people choose a 1650 over a 6600 it speaks volumes to brand recognition and perception.
 
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