Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

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uzzi38

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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
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The question is how many 68xx and 69xx cards AMDs partners have in stock compared to nvidias 3080/3090. If not too many, they can price aggressively, otherwise they too will hurt the profits of the current generation.
 
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Timorous

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She maximizes margins as a means of maximizing profits. Margins by itself as a goal is not enough. When they were capacity constrained, that was the most rational behavior. When you can produce all you can sell, the tactics necessarily change.

Don't get me wrong, they, all of them, will try to keep margins as high as possible, for as long as possible. I'm not saying that any will choose a price war, just that circumstances will force it upon them. People in general, can fantasize freely, but market forces are irresistible.

AMD will price at a level that is good for their production and supply. If they go too cheap demand will be too high and then scalpers / retailers will eat up the price gap. If AMD go too expensive then demand will be too low and wholesales will not be high enough.

I expect that with the capacity they have ordered combined with their lower BOMS AMD have an opportunity to price their parts aggressively vs NV while actually maintaining or even increasing the BOM.

Take N33 for example. Entirely possible AMD could sell that as a 7600XT in the $350-450 range depending on final performance and at that price the margin will be higher because the cost of N33 is lower than N23 given it is a smaller die on a cheaper node and the rest of the card is the same (bar memory speed probably). It is even drop in compatible for laptop OEMs so any N23 designs they have can work with N33 saving them money.

By my estimation it should be in the region of 90% 4080 12GB performance at 1080p and 1440p and at something like $400 that would be a relative steal vs the $900 4080 12GB. So here AMD can increase margin and be very very aggressive on perf/$.
 

maddie

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AMD will price at a level that is good for their production and supply. If they go too cheap demand will be too high and then scalpers / retailers will eat up the price gap. If AMD go too expensive then demand will be too low and wholesales will not be high enough.

I expect that with the capacity they have ordered combined with their lower BOMS AMD have an opportunity to price their parts aggressively vs NV while actually maintaining or even increasing the BOM.

Take N33 for example. Entirely possible AMD could sell that as a 7600XT in the $350-450 range depending on final performance and at that price the margin will be higher because the cost of N33 is lower than N23 given it is a smaller die on a cheaper node and the rest of the card is the same (bar memory speed probably). It is even drop in compatible for laptop OEMs so any N23 designs they have can work with N33 saving them money.

By my estimation it should be in the region of 90% 4080 12GB performance at 1080p and 1440p and at something like $400 that would be a relative steal vs the $900 4080 12GB. So here AMD can increase margin and be very very aggressive on perf/$.
I agree, but think it will go further as who here believes NVIDIA will passively allow AMD taking a lot of marketshare in any segment.
 

Timorous

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Or AMD could simply want to increase their margins and sell it for $499-549

They will probably try and optimise the volume/margin curve to maximise profit.

Sure they could sell fewer at that price and make more margin but if that means they have less demand than supply then there are opportunities to have even more profit even if the margin is worse.
 

Joe NYC

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Or AMD could simply want to increase their margins and sell it for $499-549

One thing to keep in mind is that all of these companies made commitments to TSMC. They have to take certain number of wafers.

So selling small number of cards at high price does not necessarily increase margins, because the company already ordered (and has to pay for) wafers for large number of cards.
 
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Joe NYC

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The point is, AMD having lower prices isn't enough to take a lot of market share. Remember this slide. These are real world prices:

There are ridiculous perf/$ advantages for AMD in there.

Now look at the Amazon best seller list.

Do you see the problem yet? There is a VAST disconnect between AMD's price advantage and sales.

As far as the 4000 series: From the arguing I've done against DLSS 3, frame interpolation and push back I've gotten (here and on another forum), there is a segment that already believe NVidia marketing, and think DLSS 3 frame generation is good enough to be considered the real frame rate. Even if there are issue today, they think all the artifacts and latency issue will just be cleared up in a software update, and it will be a free performance doubling. This is going to be another thing NVidia can market to the gullible.

So lets focus on the worse of NVidia's announced cards. The 4080 12GB at $900. What price point do you think AMD needs to target this card with, to take a lot of market share?

This best seller list seems to be incorrect. Why would 4090 at $2999 be #2 on the top seller list?
 

Heartbreaker

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This best seller list seems to be incorrect. Why would 4090 at $2999 be #2 on the top seller list?

Because that's the new hot thing, and all the wealthy nerds are running to buy them. Anywhere I look right now, the only ones I see in stock are ~$3000 scalper stores...
 
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Timorous

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AMD will charge as much as they can possibly get away with to maximise profits, if they didn't their investors would not be happy. The only way we get cheap AMD cards is if they lack features and/or performance in key areas.

The right pricing model can set AMD up to start gaining market share in the GPU space the same way they did vs Intel in the CPU space. That leads to long term profits. Based on the rumoured info about RDNA3 it seems AMD could do that while maintaining or increasing their GPU margins which makes it a win win.
 
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maddie

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When people are struggling to afford necessities, lowering the price on luxuries, doesn't make them necessities. GPUs are not necessities.

I'm closer to the bottom than most here. I won't be buying a GPU at all, and a sale won't change that. When people are worried about job loss, food/shelter/fuel, then a cheaper GPU, is not going to convince them that's a good time to buy a new GPU.
It's not a binary decision, there are levels of struggling. Why this rigid thinking?

Individuals that bought higher end, slide down the price range. This applies to all purchases. Do we stop going to the movies or do we go less? Do we stop eating out or just at cheaper restaurants? Expand this to all aspects of life. Those already at, or close to the bottom financially will do completely without many things they previously had, as essentials consume their budgets. Those above will have less for discretionary spending and bargain hunt increasingly.

As an aside, and I'm NOT comparing now to then. Hollywood did well in the great depression. Why that happened, might have a lot to do with this discussion, modern gaming and the tech for it.
 

Kaluan

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AMD will charge as much as they can possibly get away with to maximise profits, if they didn't their investors would not be happy. The only way we get cheap AMD cards is if they lack features and/or performance in key areas.
It's not that simple. If AMD prices RDNA3 very aggressively against Lovelace and they have volumes and in 6 months they gain considerable mindshare and marketshare for the Radeon brand/products, I think their investors would be very happy. Seeing something you invested in start being very competitive in a segment they previously were meh (consumer/client GPU) and technically increasing revenue potential, is the next best thing long term investors would like to see, behind immediate ROI ofc.
 
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Heartbreaker

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Just because the current asking price on Amazon is $3000, doesn't mean that 4090s sold and contributing to the spot on the list were all sold at that price.

Good point, Amazon has multiple sellers for products. When the normally priced ones sell out, the scalper stores remain, hopefully most people aren't giving the scalper stores business.

Right now, all the normal priced online cards are gone.
 
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biostud

Lifer
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One thing to keep in mind is that all of these companies made commitments to TSMC. They have to take certain number of wafers.

So selling small number of cards at high price does not necessarily increase margins, because the company already ordered (and has to pay for) wafers for large number of cards.
True, and while orders probably is down in all categories, then AMD has the possibility to switch between 6/7nm and 5nm lines and either GPUs or CPUs.
 
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Leeea

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It's not that simple. If AMD prices RDNA3 very aggressively against Lovelace and they have volumes and in 6 months they gain considerable mindshare and marketshare for the Radeon brand/products, I think their investors would be very happy. Seeing something you invested in start being very competitive in a segment they previously were meh (consumer/client GPU) and technically increasing revenue potential, is the next best thing long term investors would like to see, behind immediate ROI ofc.
I disagree.

AMD could hand out rx7900xts for free, and nvidia would still retain 80% of the market.


If it is free it must be defective, right?
If it is cheaper it must be inferior, right?
 

gdansk

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I disagree.

AMD could hand out rx7900xts for free, and nvidia would still retain 80% of the market.


If it is free it must be defective, right?
If it is cheaper it must be inferior, right?
There's some truth to this line of thinking but you are exaggerating. People do want aggressive Radeon prices so they can buy cheaper GeForce.
 
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fleshconsumed

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I disagree.

AMD could hand out rx7900xts for free, and nvidia would still retain 80% of the market.


If it is free it must be defective, right?
If it is cheaper it must be inferior, right?
If I recall correctly ATI did get 50% market share with 3870/4870/5870 cards, but it took them 3 generations of aggressively priced cards that performed the same as nvidia to achieve it. It is a tough battle, but it is not impossible, it will take time and consistently delivering equivalent product at better prices or better product at same prices. The biggest hurdle is going to be CUDA for which AMD has no answer.
 

maddie

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There is very much two different camps. The Wealthy and secure who are unaffected, except for the current growth rate of the stocks and bonds, and those less secure concerned about necessities potentially being an issue.

For many/most of the less secure it is binary. Which is why many sales collapse. Recession sales don't drop, just because of current loss of income, but because of fears of job loss, so preemptive belt tightening back to necessities, and GPUs are FAR from necessities.

OTOH, For people with well above average income, and no fear of job loss, there is little impact from a recession and no need to curtail purchases.

So you end up in a situation where a 4090 will sell out at $1600, while low end $200 card sales slow dramatically regardless of price cuts.

You sound like you are just fantasizing about the personal benefit this recession might bring you in the form of your fantasy GPU price war.
I guess we are in a computer forum, and binary is the rule. Maybe we should advance this to the new quantum computing model. ;)
 

Joe NYC

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We'll see soon if that quarterly drop was a one off. If it wasn't, ...............

On another forum we tried to connect the dots, and the biggest culprit seems to be the inventory of PCs in the channel. The inventory level was 2 months greater than pre-pandemic.

And, it seems that all the parties involved wants to go back to that lower level of inventories.

This correlates very well with which parts of AMD revenue were hit (Client CPU). Other categories were not hit very much or at all.

From this, it would seem that this might be mostly one off...

But the dire economic situation in Europe and the US will have some negative effect across the board.
 
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