Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[jpiniero]

Saving 44mm^2 matters a lot here.

It would be worth it if it helps justify $600/$700 versus $500/$600.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

N31 silicon costs 48$ less, but packaging is certainly more expensive, the question is by how much.
If nothing else, AMD is saving a limited supply of N5 by using N6 for chiplets.

- I don't think we can understate the opportunity gain for AMD here to produce more Zen 4 chiplets on N5 as a result of capping the N31 GCD size (and as a result likely reducing the waffer load for GPUs).

AMD has been perpetually handicapped in its ability to actually secure contracts on account of its ability to actually supply contracts. Regardless of Intel's shenanigans, its ability to fab in house and exclusively for itself has always kept it ahead in the mindshare space thanks to intel parts being in everything and always readily available. AMD has recently had the chance to be more choosy and supply some high profile stuff in the HPC and server space, but its still missing in large sectors of the computer market.

For all of AMD's impressive gains in power efficiency and APU performance etc, you still see 1 AMD laptop for every 50 intel laptops anywhere you look. I'm sure this move will help AMD allocate more of their CPUs dies in their weakest markets.

 

[Timorous]

Where is the info for 64MB IF cache? I thought it is rumored to be 128MB.

That is the prevailing rumour but for a 1080p/entry 1440p part that is supposed to be targeting a $400 price point it seems overkill and with the layout of N32 it would also give the 7600XT more cache than the 7700XT (assuming a 3 SE, 192bit, 3 MCD N32 based design for that part).

Also if N31 is in the 350mm region then N32 will be around 215mm which is tiny for what is likely to be the x800 tier and a explains why AMD won't mind cutting 1 SE to make the 7700XT.

 

[Timorous]

It would be worth it if it helps justify $600/$700 versus $500/$600.

8GB of VRAM means it won't be able to command that kind of price next gen. Even the 3070 was thought to be a bit VRAM light this go around.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

Also if N31 is in the 350mm region then N32 will be around 215mm which is tiny for what is likely to be the x800 tier and a explains why AMD won't mind cutting 1 SE to make the 7700XT.

215mm^2 is a low number, N31 would be 63% larger. Too much difference in size in my opinion. I think at ~250mm2 would be the size.

 

[jpiniero]

8GB of VRAM means it won't be able to command that kind of price next gen. Even the 3070 was thought to be a bit VRAM light this go around.

The 4070 is going to be 10. That's not that much more. And it's going to be $700 unless it sucks.

 

[Timorous]

215mm^2 is a low number, N31 would be 63% larger. Too much difference in size in my opinion. I think at ~250mm2 would be the size.

Yea I derped slightly when working it out in my head. I think 231mm if N31 is 350mm. Still tiny for the tiers it will be going into so a cut version to service the 7700 tier is totally viable with a die that small.

 

[jpiniero]

Yea I derped slightly when working it out in my head. I think 231mm if N31 is 350mm. Still tiny for the tiers it will be going into so a cut version to service the 7700 tier is totally viable with a die that small.

No way is it 231. Maybe if it was on N4.

 

[maddie]

It would be worth it if it helps justify $600/$700 versus $500/$600.

The 4070 is going to be 10. That's not that much more. And it's going to be $700 unless it sucks.

I'm going to ask outright.

Do you have ANY real sources as to these price levels you keep predicting OR are you merely stating your opinions as fact?

You never write "I think/believe X,Y,Z" or "the data suggests X,Y,Z" but "it will be X,Y,Z". Very certain, very final.

I keep thinking of the JayzTwoCents video, "Don't Wait". Am I being manipulated?

 

[Timorous]

No way is it 231. Maybe if it was on N4.

I am talking N32....

 

[jpiniero]

Do you have ANY real sources as to these price levels you keep predicting

It's a prediction, yes. But it's clear what AMD is doing, it's the same as Zen 3. RDNA 2 Refresh will fill in the rest of the stack, 7000 series rebrands if need be, as long as they can justify their MSRP.

Plus Inflation, expensive TSMC, etc.

 

[maddie]

It's a prediction, yes. But it's clear what AMD is doing, it's the same as Zen 3. RDNA 2 Refresh will fill in the rest of the stack, 7000 series rebrands if need be, as long as they can justify their MSRP.

Plus Inflation, expensive TSMC, etc.

What I asked is if you have any special information, not if it's a prediction. You are emphasizing the trivial part of the question.

There are informed predictions, ignorant predictions, wishful predictions, etc.

Bolded above feels being subjected to a "present prices not bad, next gen higher" campaign.

 

[Timorous]

It's a prediction, yes. But it's clear what AMD is doing, it's the same as Zen 3. RDNA 2 Refresh will fill in the rest of the stack, 7000 series rebrands if need be, as long as they can justify their MSRP.

Plus Inflation, expensive TSMC, etc.

RDNA2 won't fit in the stack.

N31 is likely x900 tier but there is room for an x850 tier using a cut N31.
N32 will cover the x800 down to x700 tiers in full and cut forms.
N33 will cover x600

All that leaves is x500 tier and the only RDNA2 part that would work there is N23, N22 is larger than N33 and requires more ram so BOM cost would be higher.

Chances are AMD will fill x500 with N34 in the future and just leave it till last like they did this te. Another alternative is to make x500 a pretty good 1080p part and use a cut N33 with a 96bit bus and 6GB ram.

So what you see as clear is anything but when you actually think about it.

 

[jpiniero]

N31 is likely x900 tier but there is room for an x850 tier using a cut N31.
N32 will cover the x800 down to x700 tiers in full and cut forms.

Especially if the chiplet models compute tile is going to be decently sized, there should only need to be one cut needed even for N31. Yields are extremely good.

So...

7900/XT = N31 (versus AD102, ie: 4090/Ti)
7800/XT = N32 (versus AD103, ie: 4080/Ti)
7700/XT = N33 (versus AD104, ie: 4070/Ti)
7600/XT = N22 Refresh (versus AD106, ie: 4060/Ti, that is if nVidia bothers)

It's pretty simple.

 

[Glo.]

Another alternative is to make x500 a pretty good 1080p part and use a cut N33 with a 96bit bus and 6GB ram.

So what you see as clear is anything but when you actually think about it.

This.

7500XT - N33 based with 96 bit bus, 24 CUs, and 6 GB VRAM. For 280-300$ MSRP.

 

[Mopetar]

EUV tools probably a lot more expensive, etc, etc. Even if it was cheaper for TSMC, that doesn't mean they would pass on the savings.

There have been consistent and well substantiated rumors for months now that TSMC was offering discounts to customers who would move to N6. They get better throughput, so more revenue.

 

[maddie]

Especially if the chiplet models compute tile is going to be decently sized, there should only need to be one cut needed even for N31. Yields are extremely good.

So...

7900/XT = N31 (versus AD102, ie: 4090/Ti)
7800/XT = N32 (versus AD103, ie: 4080/Ti)
7700/XT = N33 (versus AD104, ie: 4070/Ti)
7600/XT = N22 Refresh (versus AD106, ie: 4060/Ti, that is if nVidia bothers)

It's pretty simple.

Memory capacity having a lot or relevance to the average uninformed customer, aka, more is always better + higher performance, what do you see as the memory capacity for your prediction.

As it is now, N22 carries 12GB. Will it have more memory than N33?
Are the rumors of N33 being 8GB & 128 bit wrong?
If right, will AMD use 1GB memory chips for 7600/XT and only have 6GB, less than the present x600 class?

 

[Timorous]

Especially if the chiplet models compute tile is going to be decently sized, there should only need to be one cut needed even for N31. Yields are extremely good.

So...

7900/XT = N31 (versus AD102, ie: 4090/Ti)
7800/XT = N32 (versus AD103, ie: 4080/Ti)
7700/XT = N33 (versus AD104, ie: 4070/Ti)
7600/XT = N22 Refresh (versus AD106, ie: 4060/Ti, that is if nVidia bothers)

It's pretty simple.

An 8GB 7700XT will get slaughtered in the press. It won't happen because it will be seen as a regression, and rightly so. Giving it 16GB makes it a lot more expensive and screws up the rest of the stack.

N33 is the 7600 tier part.

N31 will be 7900 with maybe the 5SE 320bit 20GB version being a 7850 XT.

N32 will be 7800XT with the 3SE 192bit 12GB version being 7700XT.

N33 as stated will be 7600XT.

Also with your stack the N22 7600 would actually have a higher BOM cost than the 7700XT because it is a larger die on a more expensive node even if only equipped with 6GB ram.

The reason AMD would be happy to split N32 across 2 product lines is because the GCD is going to be sub 250mm, that is Polaris sized... Sure it will have MCDs too but the great thing about this design is the 192bit version has a lower bom cost because it uses 1 less MCD.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Nvidia can get away with memory regressions thanks to their mind share and market cap (and frankly their memory regression and funky memory stack didn't do them any favors this gen), but AMD absolutely has to get every element of their stack right for people to trust and go with them. They put down a solid foundation with RDNA 2, but they need to keep the wins coming from an RDNA 3 & 4 before they gain the consumer's trust.

That's a tall order, given the last time they got three consecutive solid drama free generations in was the HD4xxx/5xxx/6xxx/7xxx series (and even the 7xxx was plagued by some drama).

Infinity cache will keep AMD from having to use exotic memory, which will keep memory costs down, which will let them offer a more conventional "better product, more memory" configuration I think.

 

[Aapje]

I expect AMD to keep the same memory configs for anything but the 7900, as they already had high memory configs. Nvidia really needs to increase the memory. I can see them switching back to GDDR6 24Gbps for the 4080 and using the savings to put 16 GB on that card. Then having 12 on the 4070 and 8 on the 4060 makes sense to me.

 

[jpiniero]

An 8GB 7700XT will get slaughtered in the press.

The competition is 10 GB. If it's faster than the 4070, people will gloss over it. Even if it's slower people won't mind.

7500XT - N33 based with 96 bit bus, 24 CUs, and 6 GB VRAM. For 280-300$ MSRP.

You do realize that the cut N23's original MSRP was $329. I hope you aren't expecting Zen 4 to start at under $299 either.

Then having 12 on the 4070 and 8 on the 4060 makes sense to me.

Again, the 4070 is 10. AD106 is only 128 bit so it's 8 or I guess 6.

 

[Kepler_L2]

The competition is 10 GB. If it's faster than the 4070, people will gloss over it. Even if it's slower people won't mind.

N33 is not faster than AD104 so that argument is invalid.

Also people should stop thinking of any RDNA2 rebranding on the low end. It doesn't make any sense from either a BOM or a marketing perspective. N22 is more expensive to manufacture than N33 so it can't be a lower end SKU, and the architectures are far too different to exist in the same lineup. It would be like having Polaris be the low end for RDNA1.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

Guys, let's not forget that RT performance will be way more important than when RDNA2 launched.
Let's be honest, RDNA2 is very bad with RT enabled and If they don't fix It now then they can't get away with only competitive raster performance. We say that Ampere has worse perf/W than RDNA2, but that's true when you don't have RT enabled. If you enable It, then RDNA2 looses badly.

N33 is supposedly comparable to RX 6950XT. Performance worse than 3070? Very sad.

I feared that 8GB Vram will have a big impact on RT performance, but after looking at RTX 3070(Ti) 8GB, It mostly happens at 4K + RT enabled. Ok, in some games even at 1440p, but not by that much and FPS is high enough.

My conclusion is that N33 shouldn't have a problem with 1080-1440p RT enabled because of only 8GB Vram, at least in current games.
I am more worried about the RT performance of RDNA3. Hopefully, It's better than Ampere, because Ada will be.

 

[Glo.]

You do realize that the cut N23's original MSRP was $329. I hope you aren't expecting Zen 4 to start at under $299 either.

You do realize that above 7500 XT SKU there also is 7600 SKU?

N33 full die - 399$, 8 GB VRAM, 32 CUs, 7600 XT SKU.
N33 cut die - 349$, 8 GB VRAM, 28 CUs, 7600 SKU.
N33 cut die - 280-300$, 6 GB VRAM, 24 CUs, 7500 XT SKU.

 

[jpiniero]

N33 is not faster than AD104 so that argument is invalid.

Definitely premature for that.

Also people should stop thinking of any RDNA2 rebranding on the low end. It doesn't make any sense from either a BOM or a marketing perspective.

To fill the price gap void that these high N33 prices and not having an N34 leaves. And there's no N34 unless AMD can manage to get serious mobile deals for it and probally'd be mobile only. So you just keep selling RDNA 2 Refresh as long as you can hold it's MSRP. If The Flood happens, it happens. You probally won't even see desktop AD106 until The Flood fears subside.

You do realize that above 7500 XT SKU there also is 7600 SKU?

N33 full die - 399$, 8 GB VRAM, 32 CUs, 7600 XT SKU.
N33 cut die - 349$, 8 GB VRAM, 28 CUs, 7600 SKU.
N33 cut die - 280-300$, 6 GB VRAM, 24 CUs, 7500 XT SKU.

Why would AMD do that? They only did two cuts with Navi 21 which is the biggest die.