Question Speculation: RDNA2 + CDNA Architectures thread

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uzzi38

Platinum Member
Oct 16, 2019
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All die sizes are within 5mm^2. The poster here has been right on some things in the past afaik, and to his credit was the first to saying 505mm^2 for Navi21, which other people have backed up. Even still though, take the following with a pich of salt.

Navi21 - 505mm^2

Navi22 - 340mm^2

Navi23 - 240mm^2

Source is the following post: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/PC_Shopping/M.1588075782.A.C1E.html
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
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Maybe it's an issue when you are guaranteeeing it running 24/7 for at least one year and on a large number of cards with a stock cooler instead of running a single test on a single lucky sample with a cooler that is not designed by you and probably beefed up...

I am not convinced. If NV21 has similar density to NV10 then that is less than Ampere. That really does not seem credible. It may not be all the way to 60+M xtors/mm^2 but I do expect north of 50M.
 
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leoneazzurro

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Jul 26, 2016
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How many ways of counting transistors are there?

A lot


It depends of what you are actually counting, only functional units as schematics or actual implementation, and for which type of circuitry.
In this article is explicitly stated that, for the same design, the "transistor count" may vary, according to what the producer actually counts, as much as 33-37%
 
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Zstream

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Oct 24, 2005
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PS5 SoC yields are bad, under 50%. GPU frequency is I'm guessing the culprit. Wonder if AMD told Sony that 2.2 was very doable, and turns out it's not.
Source?
 

A///

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Feb 24, 2017
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The reporter who reported Sony's issues seems to be a gray wolf. Apparently they've been banned from multiple agencies in the past due to publishing unsubstantiated articles in the past. This is according to something I read off of Reddit's investing section. Sony's doing some custom chip work for their PS5, coupled with reducing CUs and pushing clocks as far as they can go up per their announcement weeks ago, I'm not surprised if there is some tangible credibility here. Sony may not repeat MS's mistake with pricing, but it looks like due to their own self-imposed shortcomings, MS will take the lead.
 

A///

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Feb 24, 2017
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Let's wait and see just how efficient that Nvidia cooler is with pushing hot air out the back of the card. Keep in mind that fan blows air in 2 directions, to the back of the card and the opposite direction, towards the center of the card.

View attachment 29868

To me the Nvidia card reminds me of the Sapphire Pulse Vega 56 with it's half size "nano" PCB and strong emphasis on cooling through the "free" half of the heatsink. The fans on the front of the card may look identical, but the amount of heat they displace from the heatsink certainly isn't.

View attachment 29867
I was thinking this. It predates the Vega 56 design.

9pRXRUg.png
 
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Helis4life

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Sep 6, 2020
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The reporter who reported Sony's issues seems to be a gray wolf. Apparently they've been banned from multiple agencies in the past due to publishing unsubstantiated articles in the past. This is according to something I read off of Reddit's investing section. Sony's doing some custom chip work for their PS5, coupled with reducing CUs and pushing clocks as far as they can go up per their announcement weeks ago, I'm not surprised if there is some tangible credibility here. Sony may not repeat MS's mistake with pricing, but it looks like due to their own self-imposed shortcomings, MS will take the lead.
That's interesting. See of Sony coroborates anything.


Article says as low as 50%, not less than. Also says 11 million chips made, doesn't specify a time period though. Current us fiscal year ends 31st September.

I was under the impression the chips were made to order based on monthly projections, rather than bulk manufacturing. How long would it take to sell 11 million units?
 

Hitman928

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Apr 15, 2012
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That's interesting. See of Sony coroborates anything.


Article says as low as 50%, not less than. Also says 11 million chips made, doesn't specify a time period though. Current us fiscal year ends 31st September.

I was under the impression the chips were made to order based on monthly projections, rather than bulk manufacturing. How long would it take to sell 11 million units?

The PS4 sold just over 4 million from November through the end of the year in its launch year. It then had sold a total of 10 million units by Aug 10 of the following year. The Nintendo switch sold about 15 million units in 10 months which I believe made it the fastest selling console ever and came in at a lower price point which obviously will help sales. So if Sony had really ordered 17 million chips to be ready by March 2021 (according to the article), that seems very aggressive to me. That means they were planning on selling faster than the switch within the first year of launch and most likely doing that bulk of those sales after the holidays. I don't have any "sources" but that doesn't seem realistic.

As low as 50% parametric yield also seems unrealistically low. I mean, it's not a new process and AMD has already put multiple CPUs and GPUs on this process. Even if Sony asked AMD to essentially overclock the GPUs, I highly doubt AMD wouldn't have been able to tell them they'd get really terrible yields of they did. I could understand it being lower than expected but that 50% number just seems made up.
 

Zstream

Diamond Member
Oct 24, 2005
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Uh? The article? You can read the english version of the article above if Google Translate isn't your thing.
Calm down, the source of the article is just random jibberish. No way Sony would build out 15m million units in a SILO and "wait" for buyers. This type of thing does not happen, and would be counter productive to refresh cycles or revisions of the SoC. You build as many as you project within a 6-8 month period, and work on revisions for the rest. Yields will get better as time progresses.

Let's for fun say Sony predicted 15 million consoles for sale. That might have been pre-covid, and with the world economy the way it is, no way in heck that many will be sold. It's definitely wishful thinking.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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No way Sony would build out 15m million units in a SILO and "wait" for buyers.

It makes sense for consoles since while you don't know what demand will be, there's little downside to overproducing since you know you will sell it eventually. Well, as long as yields are good. MS has said the Series X SoC yield is good.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
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The big problem, as I see it, is that they still havent managed to find a solution for pushing some of the air outside the back of the card. Radial fans, we do not want them back, but look at the 30xx-cards. Thay have managed to do something Ive been wanting to do forever. Pushing air out of the back of the computer with an axial fan. How hard could it be, to manage to do what Nvidia has recently managed to do. Some one in AMD/ATI has to hire me as a consultant ASAP to discuss airflow desigs! :D

As long as you have positive pressure in the computer, the air wants to move out the easiest way possible. I just dont get it why they still have not managed to build a cooler that uses axial fans, and pushes the air outside the box.
Because using an axial fan to push air through a heatsink that then hits a PCB, has to compress and take a 90 and travel along the PCB along a <1" path out the back of the case is really inefficient. Pulling in air through the axis and pushing it out radially is the whole reason radial fans exist. Blower cards aren't loud because a radial fans is a fundementally bad design, they're loud because they need to run at high RPM to overcome the static pressure of pushing through the heatsink and venting out a 075"x3.5" slot at the back of the card while still moving enough air to keep the card cool. Radial fans are inherently better in high backpressure applications at the expense of flowrate, so they do tend to get noisy when they get cranked up to move enough air to cool 300W from a small fin array.
 

kurosaki

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Feb 7, 2019
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air through a heatsink that then hits a PCB, has to compress and take a 90 and travel along the PCB along a <1" path out the back of the case is really inefficient. Pulling in air through the axis and pushing it out radially is the whole reason radial fans exist. Blower cards aren't loud because a radial fans is a fundementally bad design, they're loud because they need to run at high RPM to overcome the static pressure of pushing through the heatsink and venting out a 075"x3.5" slot at the back of the card while still moving enough air to keep the card cool. Radial fans are inherently better in high backpressure applications at the expense of flowrate, so they do tend to get noisy when they get cranked up to move enough air to cool 300W from a small fin array.
Tomorrow we'll see if the Axial blower is any good or not. I believe Nvidia has quite a silent and cool design coming up.
*As long as there is a positive pressure in the case, I believe we wont have large problems moving the air out via a GPU. So, while an axial blower seems hard to pull off in a negative pressure case, I think it's quite the oposite in a positive pressure one.
 
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MrTeal

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Dec 7, 2003
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Tomorrow we'll see if the Axial blower is any good or not. I believe Nvidia has quite a silent and cool design coming up.
Keep in mind Nvidia doesn't have an axial blower. They have one fan acting as you describe, and then one pushing air unobstructed through a large fin array at the back of the card. Looking at least at the information that's public so far I would imagine the back fan is responsible for dissipating several times more heat than the front fan.
 

Zstream

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Oct 24, 2005
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It makes sense for consoles since while you don't know what demand will be, there's little downside to overproducing since you know you will sell it eventually. Well, as long as yields are good. MS has said the Series X SoC yield is good.
I'm not going to argue your position because it's all opinion. However, I firmly believe that Sony, to sell 15M units on revision 1 of the SoC, with a Microsoft console released at the same time, plus a world pandemic with Covid, and lastly PC refreshes.. was not only ignorant, but downright stupid. This is why they had to decrease production.
 

Zstream

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Oct 24, 2005
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Keep in mind Nvidia doesn't have an axial blower. They have one fan acting as you describe, and then one pushing air unobstructed through a large fin array at the back of the card. Looking at least at the information that's public so far I would imagine the back fan is responsible for dissipating several times more heat than the front fan.
I'd like to see a axial fan on the GPU running at a set speed, never changing, while a centrifugal fan pushing cool air from the outside towards the axial fan. The amount of air pressure pushed towards the GPU by the centrifugal fan would keep the GPU cool all while pushing a majority of it out the back of the case.
 

A///

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Feb 24, 2017
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That's interesting. See of Sony coroborates anything.


Article says as low as 50%, not less than. Also says 11 million chips made, doesn't specify a time period though. Current us fiscal year ends 31st September.

I was under the impression the chips were made to order based on monthly projections, rather than bulk manufacturing. How long would it take to sell 11 million units?
The original articles from earlier in the year were that Sony projected 6M orders through March 2021. Then, they later increased that order. However, this new article says they reduced by 4M units, to 11M units. Which implies at some point Sony increased their 10M updated order to 15M units by March 2021.


You don't have to sell all those units by then. I don't believe Sony follows JIT protocols because it caused them shortages in the past. The PS4 since its original launch has sold, maybe 40M units or just a bit more. Or they could sell it all by then. It's difficult to say given how much people are spending time at home, and realistically we won't have say 50% of the global population inoculated against COVID. Peleton sales are through the roof, for example. It's an expensive bike, but a couple who makes 40-50K each can afford it and split the cost. Home fitness equipment has been on fire since March.

I don't believe in the 50% yield issue. The reporter is known for lying and barred by many Japanese firms, according to those who know his work. 7nm+ on EUV isn't new to TSMC. It's a mature node at this point. It reads like a hit piece.
 
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blckgrffn

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I'm not going to argue your position because it's all opinion. However, I firmly believe that Sony, to sell 15M units on revision 1 of the SoC, with a Microsoft console released at the same time, plus a world pandemic with Covid, and lastly PC refreshes.. was not only ignorant, but downright stupid. This is why they had to decrease production.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

For all of 2020, every console made has been sold, near as I can tell from trying to buy them myself. Despite looming refreshes.

In my mind, Sony was aggressive because the stakes are huge. Let's say by the end of Q1 both MS and Sony have sold every console they could build.

If Sony has 2x the consoles in the wild - not mention their clear demarcation in generations - they will be well on their way to holding the same advantage in the next generation as they have in this one.

I haven't really seen the numbers that MS has been expecting to build, but it seems much lower Sony's position. The S is also a much smaller console in terms of how much silicon it requires, so I guess we'll just have to see how it plays out.

Each console refresh seems to be a moment in time (6-12 months) where the next several years of revenue are built upon and can be nearly life or death. I have zero problems with Sony being very aggressive on this front. Worst case they have too much product and low liquidity in 2021? The downside of that seems small compared with what flipping sales positions with MS might mean.
 

Zstream

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Oct 24, 2005
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯

For all of 2020, every console made has been sold, near as I can tell from trying to buy them myself. Despite looming refreshes.

In my mind, Sony was aggressive because the stakes are huge. Let's say by the end of Q1 both MS and Sony have sold every console they could build.

If Sony has 2x the consoles in the wild - not mention their clear demarcation in generations - they will be well on their way to holding the same advantage in the next generation as they have in this one.

I haven't really seen the numbers that MS has been expecting to build, but it seems much lower Sony's position. The S is also a much smaller console in terms of how much silicon it requires, so I guess we'll just have to see how it plays out.

Each console refresh seems to be a moment in time (6-12 months) where the next several years of revenue are built upon and can be nearly life or death. I have zero problems with Sony being very aggressive on this front. Worst case they have too much product and low liquidity in 2021? The downside of that seems small compared with what flipping sales positions with MS might mean.
You’re assuming Sony sticks to a single revision. There is absolutely no need to stock pile these chips, while they can make enhancements and changes after six months and still satisfy quantity. There is no way they will sell 15 million chips in the first six months, ever.
 

jpiniero

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You’re assuming Sony sticks to a single revision. There is absolutely no need to stock pile these chips, while they can make enhancements and changes after six months and still satisfy quantity. There is no way they will sell 15 million chips in the first six months, ever.

They don't make changes that quickly.

I'm starting to wonder if it's a poor machine translation and not verbatim...

The english version of the article says the same thing.
 

blckgrffn

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You’re assuming Sony sticks to a single revision. There is absolutely no need to stock pile these chips, while they can make enhancements and changes after six months and still satisfy quantity. There is no way they will sell 15 million chips in the first six months, ever.

They said they needed that many chips by the end of Q1 - that's probably not the same as having a box sitting on a shelf at Best Buy waiting for some lucky soul to pick it up?

Over three quarters of actual availability world wide 15M is just PS4 numbers transferred to the PS5, so long as the initial sales are in order. First three quarters of PS4 sales look like ~11M units.

Again, if having them on the shelf when your competitor is sold out changes a customer preference for the next 5-7 years, I'd probably make the same investment. Especially if an outbreak can cripple your supply chain. Get as many units that you can sell as fast as possible.

I import for sale for the business I own. We are leveraging buying more than normal now because lockdowns are devastating.

Reference used: https://www.statista.com/statistics/222403/unit-sales-of-sonys-gaming-hardware-by-category/