Southern Islands in November?

[tincart]

Another one from the rumor-mill: http://www.digitimes.com/NewsShow/MailHome.asp?datePublish=2010/8/11&pages=PD&seq=223

Digitimes says SI will be announced in October and be available in November along with price cuts for the 5xxx line.

I seem to recall digitimes having a fairly good track record. Further, this seems to correspond with statements from one of the ATi AIB's about the announcement time but not the launch time.

Good news for pricing if true.

 

[Madcatatlas]

Hopefully true

 

[Janooo]

It seems SI is a full NI on the 40nm process. If the article is going to turn out correct.

 

[jvroig]

along with price cuts for the 5xxx line.

:thumbsup:

Finally. I'm glad prices will be cut, instead of just retaining the prices until the inventory runs out and is replaced entirely by the 6xxx. For a moment there I was afraid there would be no price cuts, being pessimistic and all.

 

[evolucion8]

Wow, if that results to be truth, AMD is unforgiving, it isn't giving nVidia any chance, that's good competition, but I hope that nVidia recovers

But its strange that they claim that S.I. is basically N.I. in the 40nm manufacturing process. I though it would be an hybrid (Evergreen shaders and N.I. core).

 

[jvroig]

t seems SI is a full NI on the 40nm process. If the article is going to turn out correct.

How so? The only thing mentioned about it was this:

AMD originally planned to have its next-generation GPUs using 32nm process and codenamed the chips Northern Islands, but Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) skipped its 32nm R&D for GPUs and advanced directly to 28nm R&D. In response AMD adjusted its plans and decided to continue adopting a 40nm process, while changing the product's codename to Southern Islands, the sources explained.

I don't think that means "Full NI on 40nm". The phrase "adjusted its plans and decided to continue adopting a 40nm process" could actually mean, you know, changing their plan to change the entire architecture and instead hold on to the existing 5xxx architecture but put the supposed 6xxx shaders on them. Or vice versa. Or rebadge the same products they have now and sell them with new stickers and new box art saying "6 is much better than 5!" even though the rebadged versions are just sidegrades for people with 5xxx cards, the same way that 9800GT was a sidegrade from an 8800GT.

I know, that last one was ridiculous. The point was that a terse phrase like that one ("AMD adjusted its plans") is far from indicative of anything at all.

But its strange that they claim that S.I. is basically N.I. in the 40nm manufacturing process. I though it would be an hybrid (Evergreen shaders and N.I. core).

See above, no claim was made at all.

 

[tincart]

One has to wonder how long a price drop would last. High prices for 5xxx suggests continued supply constraints, something AMD has publicly admitted to. I doubt there's much extra inventory in the channel. If 6xxx comes out along with a 5xxx price drop with supply still low, the remaining units probably won't stick around long.

How long after the 6xxx release will they EOL the 5xxx line? Anyone know the timeline for 4xxx EOL dates?

 

[jvroig]

One has to wonder how long a price drop would last. High prices for 5xxx suggests continued supply constraints, something AMD has publicly admitted to.

I think this is a sign that supply constraints are easing up:

To defend its market share, AMD plans to cut prices for its ATI Radeon HD 5000-series GPUs in the near future.

Having to "cut prices to defend marketshare" means "we need to lower the price so we can sell more", which is a mutually-exclusive scenario from "damn, we're selling everything we're making so fast!"

Either the article is wrong in stating it as "to defend its marketshare", or AMD is seeing or expecting supply constraints to ease up soon.

 

[tincart]

Point well taken.

We don't know the degree to which constraints have eased. If they were having a large inventory build-up, prices would already have fallen to make sure AIB's continue placing new orders.

If they are comfortable with it (and it works with the 6xxx launch) they may want to drop prices back to a projected "damn, we're selling everything we're making so fast!" level. Lowered chip demand, however, suggests that might be a hard target to hit.

 

[golem]

Point well taken.

We don't know the degree to which constraints have eased. If they were having a large inventory build-up, prices would already have fallen to make sure AIB's continue placing new orders.

If they are comfortable with it (and it works with the 6xxx launch) they may want to drop prices back to a projected "damn, we're selling everything we're making so fast!" level. Lowered chip demand, however, suggests that might be a hard target to hit.

If 5 series prices stay the same or go up before the SI launch then they are still supply constrained since it would make sense that they start shifting production from 5 to 6 leading to shortages of 5. Unless demand for 5 series is wanes.

 

[Avalon]

Would love to pick up a cheap 5850!

 

[Kenmitch]

Would love to pick up a cheap 5850!

They are going for pretty cheap already on the used market. Most of them are the non ref design tho. A ref design pops up once in awhile tho!

I wish ATI would at least give somewhat of a tease as to what Southern Island will bring to the table. If they can fix the weak points of the 5xxx without destroying the strong points then I think they'll have another winner!

I'm kinda in a holding pattern as I'd like to play around with a GTX 460 sli setup but am thinking that it just doesn't have enough umph to last for long. I'm talking in this price point that is.

 

[busydude]

If AMD doesn't cut prices of 5XXX cards, at what price points would they be launching SI?

IIRC, a 4890 was cheaper than a 5770 at launch. I hope we do not see inflated prices.

 

[spinejam]

Looks like Ati is adopting Intel's pricing strat. re: no price reductions through eol.

At least the used marketplace has adjusted for the better!

 

[jvroig]

Looks like Ati is adopting Intel's pricing strat. re: no price reductions through eol.

What gives you that idea? The article clearly stated that there would be price reductions:

To defend its market share, AMD plans to cut prices for its ATI Radeon HD 5000-series GPUs in the near future.

 

[lifeblood]

AMD probably has to drop prices because 1. nVidia finally has a real competitor in the GTX460, and 2. TSMC's prosess is more mature and less of a constraint.

From what we heard previously, SI was supposed to be 5xxx's core with NI's uncore. It was also supposed to be higher performing versus new features. If that is true, it suggestes the uncore is whats holding back the 5xxx performance. Does anyone how accurate that is?

Having SI out for christmas would be right in keeping with ATI's new policy of hitting the market bumps like christmas (showing up for the fight).

 

[spinejam]

What gives you that idea? The article clearly stated that there would be price reductions:

To clarify, I was referring to the lack of price-cuts to date -- hopefully we will see some significant price cuts soon. I'm sure most would agree that the prices of 5850's and 5870's in the retail maketplace remain inflated.

 

[evolucion8]

AMD probably has to drop prices because 1. nVidia finally has a real competitor in the GTX460, and 2. TSMC's prosess is more mature and less of a constraint.

From what we heard previously, SI was supposed to be 5xxx's core with NI's uncore. It was also supposed to be higher performing versus new features. If that is true, it suggestes the uncore is whats holding back the 5xxx performance. Does anyone how accurate that is?

Having SI out for christmas would be right in keeping with ATI's new policy of hitting the market bumps like christmas (showing up for the fight).

We do know something, that Evergreen shaders are slower in a per clock basis compared to previous generation of hardware, but texture power is much better and far more efficient, and Evergreen is far from being bottlenecked, so I think that shaders are the bottleneck and if they use them in S.I, will still being a bottleneck unless if they reimplement the same optimizations that were previously used on the HD 4x00 series.

 

[betasub]

Does the 5870's extra shader performance over the 5850 justify calling Evergreen shaders the bottleneck?

 

[RussianSensation]

I think many will be happy to upgrade to 58xx series with the upcoming price drops, esp. if 5850 dips to $230 and 5870 to $300. This would create enough room for SI at $399+.

I also agree that both 5850 and 5870 are clearly overpriced: http://www.techreport.com/articles.x/19404/11

Even if one were to discount performance for a moment, 5870 has not fallen in price since September of 2009 (*thanks NV!*D

 

[Madcatatlas]

lol..idd RussianS. Its high time we got some competition from Nvidia and the GTX460 is just what the doctor ordered. Hoping for some pricedrops on the 5870s especially.

 

[bryanW1995]

AMD probably has to drop prices because 1. nVidia finally has a real competitor in the GTX460, and 2. TSMC's prosess is more mature and less of a constraint.

From what we heard previously, SI was supposed to be 5xxx's core with NI's uncore. It was also supposed to be higher performing versus new features. If that is true, it suggestes the uncore is whats holding back the 5xxx performance. Does anyone how accurate that is?

Having SI out for christmas would be right in keeping with ATI's new policy of hitting the market bumps like christmas (showing up for the fight).

the biggest change for si will be going from 1 strong/4 weak shaders per cluster to a 2/2 breakdown instead. plus, they're going to ~ 400mm2, so they'll be bigger, more efficient gpus. if those get released this fall instead of q1/q2 2011 then they will be able to keep the pressure up on nvidia, and could conceivably even show more of an improvement over 5xxx than 5xxx did over 4xxx. however, if amd stumbles and nvidia continues to get its act together we could see a return to the good old days for nvidia.

 

[LoneNinja]

I didn't bother to read that article as it's old news to me, already read similar articles. Other articles I read, indicate that they are introducing SI on the low end this year, and the high end won't be until 2011. Seems to me that by the time Nvidia gets some lower end parts out to finally compete with the Radeon 5400/5500/5600 parts, AMD will be launching the Radeon 6400/6500/6600 parts.

I won't be expecting much of a drop on the Radeon 5800 series until early next year.

 

[RussianSensation]

however, if amd stumbles and nvidia continues to get its act together we could see a return to the good old days for nvidia.

I honestly have no idea how NV can beat SI, not until 32/28nm process. GF104 can only have 384 SPs while Fermi beyond 480 SPs will be way too hot. I can see a GTX475 / 485 but NV will have to compete on price for the next 6 months.

At the same time, let's face it, 4890/ GTX275 or higher are fast enough for almost every game out there (other than STALKER: Cop and Metro 2033, AvP). I doubt Medal of Honor is going to punish cards as much as Crysis 2, which got delayed until 2011 anyway.

 

[Grooveriding]

I honestly have no idea how NV can beat SI, not until 32/28nm process. GF104 can only have 384 SPs while Fermi beyond 480 SPs will be way too hot. I can see a GTX475 / 485 but NV will have to compete on price for the next 6 months.

At the same time, let's face it, 4890/ GTX275 or higher are fast enough for almost every game out there (other than STALKER: Cop and Metro 2033, AvP). I doubt Medal of Honor is going to punish cards as much as Crysis 2, which got delayed until 2011 anyway.

I agree. Nvidia needs to pull a rabbit out of their hat and somehow catch up to ATI with their new generation schedule.

I'm certain we will see a GTX495 using two 460 cores in one video card, and nvidia will regain the fastest video card crown with it for a few months until SI comes out.

That will be a half decent card, and will probably cost $500, negating the 5970 altogether. It's a shame we won't see something similar with the GF100 cores, as they offer a truer high performance caliber over the 104 core.

But they need to catch up in terms of releasing their new generations on time with ATI. If they keep running six months behind it will be the end of them most likely. I'm sure they must be endeavoring towards this goal, with the way this cycle has gone for them.