South Dakota Refused To Shut Down, Now Faces One Of The Largest Coronavirus Outbreaks In The Country

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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
15,997
13,717
136
The toddlers throwing a tantrum about being stopped from running out into traffic will eventually get their way.

And when the second wave hits, and the numbers rise again, they'll come up with a whole new batch of conspiratard theories.

No worries, as this will begin to happen in mid-May to June because too many states will open up in May, and the second wave will be in full force by July/August as we're forced to lock down again. The memory will stick through to November.

Are you sure this won't turn out to be seasonal though? Most of the experts think it will be because all other known coronavirus' have been seasonal. If so, then I wouldn't expect a second wave until the fall.
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
34,950
25,949
136
Hmm...

You have to wonder how much this will play straight into the hands of Trump and the GOP come November. It doesn't help that COVID-19 numbers are way down from the projected illness/death totals touted by the CDC. Was it really social distancing, or did we overreact? The truth is people don't care. Many people are hurting financially, and many people distrust anything the government says. It's why Trump got into office. IMO, democrats need to be very careful as we move forward, because if the economy is truly screwed and the democrats are blamed for this mess, they are in real trouble.
The much beter results on other countries shows it was social distancing. For being the so called greatest country in the world our results are a grade of F
 
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esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 8, 2000
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Hmm...

You have to wonder how much this will play straight into the hands of Trump and the GOP come November. It doesn't help that COVID-19 numbers are way down from the projected illness/death totals touted by the CDC. Was it really social distancing, or did we overreact? The truth is people don't care. Many people are hurting financially, and many people distrust anything the government says. It's why Trump got into office. IMO, democrats need to be very careful as we move forward, because if the economy is truly screwed and the democrats are blamed for this mess, they are in real trouble.
Actually it's not down. At 2k+ deaths per day now, we will be at 100k deaths in a month. Even if we are at the apex, the daily death toll be the same or increase in the next three weeks because who is dying now is a snapshot in time who was infected three weeks ago.

With a mortality rate of 5.0 % based on the data (677,000 infected, 34,500 deaths, 30k new cases per day), that means for every 30k cases per day, we will have 1500 deaths based on 5%, of every day we have 30k new cases. If the mortality rate drops to 3.4%, thats still 1000 deaths per day based on ongoing new cases.

New cases per day is staying at around 30k per day. Now that may be the apex.
CDC deaths estimated with social distancing, was estimated at 100-200k deaths. We may very well hit that minimum number. Look in a month and see where we are.

The overall mortality rate will probably go down, when we actually do more testing.
Deaths won't go down but the mortality rate will.

Let me add that deaths will go down when we are further down from the apex. We are nowhere near that now.
 
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esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
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Dr Chris Murray of University of Washington
just said that his newest model shows 68,000 deaths. Hopefully his newest model is a better reflection of what may happen.
 

nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
57,411
11,259
126
When I started this thread yesterday the total # of employees testing positive was 300. That total is now 518 employees with 644 positive tests associated with the plant. Statewide SD is up to 1100. Republican Governor still in Trump-like defiance refuses to issue statewide stay at home order.

"What's the worst that could happen?
I don't know, let's find out."
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,680
136
Hmm...

You have to wonder how much this will play straight into the hands of Trump and the GOP come November. It doesn't help that COVID-19 numbers are way down from the projected illness/death totals touted by the CDC. Was it really social distancing, or did we overreact? The truth is people don't care. Many people are hurting financially, and many people distrust anything the government says. It's why Trump got into office. IMO, democrats need to be very careful as we move forward, because if the economy is truly screwed and the democrats are blamed for this mess, they are in real trouble.

Ugh. By the time we get to Nov the true horror of what's unfolding will be a lot more apparent, simply because covid19 can't be stopped but merely slowed. I'm sure we'll find out the hard way whether social distancing works or not. We'll also find out that the GOP simply will not allow the kind of ebil soshulist measures necessary to maintain even a semblance of well being for millions of families.
 

dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
14,518
3,322
136
Ugh. By the time we get to Nov the true horror of what's unfolding will be a lot more apparent, simply because covid19 can't be stopped but merely slowed. I'm sure we'll find out the hard way whether social distancing works or not. We'll also find out that the GOP simply will not allow the kind of ebil soshulist measures necessary to maintain even a semblance of well being for millions of families.

Yeah, the socialism is reserved for all the large corporations who will continue to have hundreds of billions thrown at them.
 
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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
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Are you sure this won't turn out to be seasonal though? Most of the experts think it will be because all other known coronavirus' have been seasonal. If so, then I wouldn't expect a second wave until the fall.

It's always warm in Guayaquil Ecuador & they're being devastated. They're coming out of the wet season now. Dunno that he dry season will help.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
15,997
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It's always warm in Guayaquil Ecuador & they're being devastated. They're coming out of the wet season now. Dunno that he dry season will help.

Check Brazil and Australia as well, where it's been summertime through this.

The main reason they think this is going to be seasonal is that all 7 other known human infecting coronaviruses have been sharply seasonal.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
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Check Brazil and Australia as well, where it's been summertime through this.

The main reason they think this is going to be seasonal is that all 7 other known human infecting coronaviruses have been sharply seasonal.

Brazil? At least Bolsonaro says he'll own it-

 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
12,487
7,386
136
Check Brazil and Australia as well, where it's been summertime through this.

The main reason they think this is going to be seasonal is that all 7 other known human infecting coronaviruses have been sharply seasonal.

I think it's possible transmission rates will go down in the summer. After all, people will spend less time indoors, and it seems like transmission is most likely to happen when people are indoors in close proximity. It's a question of how big that effect is, though.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
15,997
13,717
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I think it's possible transmission rates will go down in the summer. After all, people will spend less time indoors, and it seems like transmission is most likely to happen when people are indoors in close proximity. It's a question of how big that effect is, though.

I don't think that is the reason viruses typically diminish in summer. "Going out" is a mixed bag at best. It's why we have lockdowns. Going out might theoretically mean more or less social distancing because it means we come into contact with other people more often.

Pathogens all die to heat. It's just that some are more sensitive to it than others.
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
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Something is strange about SD's published coronavirus numbers. The deaths reported since the Smithfield outbreak over 2 weeks ago are the same rate as before the outbreak. A little less than 1 per day. Also, SD has a rate of .78% deaths/reported cases versus about 5% nationally. They have the lowest reported death rate of any state in the country, by a decent margin. Oh, and their testing is right about on the national average so a lack of testing does not explain it.

What might explain it is that this governor went way out on a limb here politically, not doing a lockdown even after the Smithfield outbreak, and undoubtedly would be held responsible in some way, at least subjected to public criticism, had we seen the spike of deaths which were considered inevitable but magically never materialized. Either that or healthcare in this rural state is shockingly more advanced than anywhere else...
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,680
136
Something is strange about SD's published coronavirus numbers. The deaths reported since the Smithfield outbreak over 2 weeks ago are the same rate as before the outbreak. A little less than 1 per day. Also, SD has a rate of .78% deaths/reported cases versus about 5% nationally. They have the lowest reported death rate of any state in the country, by a decent margin. Oh, and their testing is right about on the national average so a lack of testing does not explain it.

What might explain it is that this governor went way out on a limb here politically, not doing a lockdown even after the Smithfield outbreak, and undoubtedly would be held responsible in some way, at least subjected to public criticism, had we seen the spike of deaths which were considered inevitable but magically never materialized. Either that or healthcare in this rural state is shockingly more advanced than anywhere else...

Never say never. They're just lagging behind, but they're trying really hard to catch up. I'm pretty sure they will. It just spreads slower initially in smaller communities & rural areas. Exponential increase still applies. At 190K people, Sioux Falls is big enough that it can get out of control rather quickly.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
15,997
13,717
136
Never say never. They're just lagging behind, but they're trying really hard to catch up. I'm pretty sure they will. It just spreads slower initially in smaller communities & rural areas. Exponential increase still applies. At 190K people, Sioux Falls is big enough that it can get out of control rather quickly.

That doesn't explain why there was an influx of ~700 new cases in 2 days, 18-19 days ago, and we've seen no spike in deaths since. I'm not talking about spread here. I'm talking about the proportion of cases to deaths. Even if the Smithfield outbreak did not fan out much from there, you'd still expect to see a spike in deaths just from those cases alone. It didn't happen. At this point, almost 3 weeks out, everyone who got infected at that pork plant, and everyone those workers infected outside the plant, is either recovered or dead. Well, it looks like about 99.5% recovered, which is quite remarkable. Maybe they just got lucky.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,680
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That doesn't explain why there was an influx of ~700 new cases in 2 days, 18-19 days ago, and we've seen no spike in deaths since. I'm not talking about spread here. I'm talking about the proportion of cases to deaths. Even if the Smithfield outbreak did not fan out much from there, you'd still expect to see a spike in deaths just from those cases alone. It didn't happen. At this point, almost 3 weeks out, everyone who got infected at that pork plant, and everyone those workers infected outside the plant, is either recovered or dead. Well, it looks like about 99.5% recovered, which is quite remarkable. Maybe they just got lucky.

Or it just hasn't been properly reported. You're also overlooking mild cases as spreaders. That guy who recovered? His wife may work for a nursing home & never really felt sick. Or she visited her mother in one. Or any number of other ways it got out into the community. It's there, ready to go ballistic.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
15,997
13,717
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Or it just hasn't been properly reported. You're also overlooking mild cases as spreaders. That guy who recovered? His wife may work for a nursing home & never really felt sick. Or she visited her mother in one. Or any number of other ways it got out into the community. It's there, ready to go ballistic.

That is exactly what I am suggesting.
 

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
31,921
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Dr Chris Murray of University of Washington
just said that his newest model shows 68,000 deaths. Hopefully his newest model is a better reflection of what may happen.

Looks like he was wrong as we are at over 68k deaths now.
 

esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 8, 2000
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Looks like he was wrong as we are at over 68k deaths now.
Yeah that was awhile ago. I saw the same Dr. Murray someday last week and he inched that up to 74k deaths. We probably will pass that one midweek, unfortunately.
 

esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
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You'll have to find a doctor who knows how to properly factor in the stupidity of humans, specifically, conservatives and right wingers.
I think that the WH may be using Dr. Murray's models as he seems to be on the optimistic/lower fatality end.
 

tweaker2

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,184
6,515
136
I figure the next 6 months will reveal how truly fucked we really are. Expect gaslighting, blame shifting & bullshitting every inch of the way.

Standard Operating Procedure for the GOP and their corporate benefactors who will, with the persistence of a swarm of mosquito, suck every ounce of blood it can out of the populace for the almighty yankee dollars those commoners bust their asses working for.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
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Yeah that was awhile ago. I saw the same Dr. Murray someday last week and he inched that up to 74k deaths. We probably will pass that one midweek, unfortunately.

Strikes me that it's not a great forecast that has to keep being revised upward in order to just barely stay ahead of the reported figures!

Reminds me of waiting for a train here - the indicator will report the train is 'on time', right up to the moment the train was supposed to arrive, whereupon it will update to say 'runnning 5 minutes late'...then when the train still isn't here 5 minutes later it will change to '10 minutes late'...and so on, seemingly indefinitely. The waiting-time display for my local doctor's office waiting room works exactly the same way, come to think of it (Dr X is on time...Dr X is running 5 minutes late...10 minutes late...15 minutes late...).