Some optimism about the economy

[nixium]

So I was browsing Seeking Alpha and ran across these two articles -


End of Recession in 2009?

and

7 Signs of an Economic Bottom

I'm a financial Noob, and don't know enough to meaningfully criticize either of these articles.

Surely, my lightweight thread can't hope to compete against the likes of the several-hundred-pound doom-n-gloom threads that are raging P&N these days, but maybe reading these articles will give you a few seconds of optimism. Maybe.

 

[Moonbeam]

You put this up there with all the end of the world threads and you begin to suspect people are selling something.

 

[nixium]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
You put this up there with all the end of the world threads and you begin to suspect people are selling something.

!?

Spare me, I'm new to P&N (cowers under desk)

No one has *any* opinion?

Even the end-of-the-worlders haven't posted dismissive, scornful comments that denigrate me and my antecedents.

Surely this thread isn't that pathetic that it's beneath notice!

 

[StageLeft]

I think the "end of the recession" in fact is very possible, but similar to the end of a fight because one person is unconscious. Things are still going down hill and that will continue. If the end is defined at which point the GDP stops contracting, that may happen, but I am still positive that it will be well past that before we get to where we were. Think of a gunfight that is over. You're not getting shot anymore but that bullet wound has to heal.

I'm thinking along the lines of point 5 of the second article. Obviously he's using hyperbole, but at some point things can't get that much worse and have nowhere to go but up, even if it's slow.

 

[Moonbeam]

People see what they believe, they don't, as they think, believe what is there to see.

 

[Moonbeam]

People see what they believe, they don't, as they think, believe what is there to see.

 

[JACKDRUID]

if it ends this year, Obama would be up there as the greatest president in hstory...

Hopefully but not likely... we are lucky if we are able to get back on our feet in 5 yrs.

 

[Zebo]

There are always contrarian views out there and you should be ready for them - also known as hedging your bets since none of us know what the future will bring. One simple way is a diversified invest portfolio many brokers suggest.

After reading your links I'm still very bearish, because most of those predictions seems to compare past recessions with the current and plotting a line while ignoring some big issues we didn't have back then. Such as everything dropping in value still. Unemployment is sky rocketing. And the biggest problem is debt loads we carry top to bottom which is being deleveraged still and still unsolved in other cases. In short e have a problem of too much consumption not enough production and it's a perfectly rational response to consume less, spend less while we pay our debts.

 

[glenn1]

Originally posted by: Zebo
There are always contrarian views out there and you should be ready for them - also known as hedging your bets since none of us know what the future will bring. One simple way is a diversified invest portfolio many brokers suggest.

After reading your links I'm still very bearish, because most of those predictions seems to compare past recessions with the current and plotting a line while ignoring some big issues we didn't have back then. Such as everything dropping in value still. Unemployment is sky rocketing. And the biggest problem is debt loads we carry top to bottom which is being deleveraged still and still unsolved in other cases. In short e have a problem of too much consumption not enough production and it's a perfectly rational response to consume less, spend less while we pay our debts.

It's easy to be a contrarian, but harder to have the foresight to have liquid investable funds to act on your convictions with when you make that call. It doesn't matter what the vast majority of folks think about when the economy or Wall Street will turn around, because they're already 100% fully invested on the long side and have already ridden down the market 6000 to 7000 Dow points.

 

[Zebo]

TTT for Expert Analysts saying we are due for a rebound as the market crashes another 2000 points since first article date and 1000 points since the second was written.