How much do GlobalFoundries get out of the "fab club" at the moment? They've diverged significantly from IBM processes, getting rid of SOI, no 22nm process- do they actually piggyback on much IBM R&D these days?
Globalfoundries is trying to develop R&D inside the company, especially after the 32nm snafu, when IBM engineers refused to listen to GLF engineers pointing out problems in the process. But given their track record with the 28nm process, I don't think they are even near of what they should be to become competitive against TSMC, their true target in the foundry market.
As for the orders, Rockchip is too small to be meaningful. The Mediatek and Qualcomm orders are the relevant ones. Albeit small the orders show that these companies want to at least give Globalfoundries a shot in their production runs, but between dipping the toe and making Globalfoundries a second source for their lagging edge products there's a huge gulf. As much as these orders shouldn't make Globalfoundries much money, because the foundry should have been very aggressive on prices, they might boost Globalfoundries credibility, something they sorely need after their debacles with AMD.
I think it's fair to say now that Globalfoundries lost the battle for 20nm. The question now is whether they will deliver their "16nm" Finfet node in a time frame competitive enough and in a shape good enough to compete against TSMC on price, and whether they will get their "10nm" node in time to compete against TSMC for bleeding edge orders. If they don't, I don't think they will have any other choice but shrink down the business.
In that scenario, it's easy to see Globalfoundries acquiring IBM foundry business: It's an engineering team they are already accustomed to work with and it's a top notch team that should have a path for 14/16nm and 10nm already in the pipeline. They would have to just tune the project targets for these nodes. Instead of uber power hogs SOI chips, they should target small, power sipping, bulk mobile chips.