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So... where will Bitcoin be at the end of 2018?

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,901
1,668
126
Since there seem to be a bunch of Bitcoin fans and Bitcoin haters in this forum, I figured that I'd put up this question just to see what comes up. The "winner" at the end of 2018 gets bragging rights, assuming that they posted their response before 2018 starts and they didn't edit it at any point during the year.

I think that we should use "Price Is Right" rules, so choose your closest estimate in US Dollars without going over.

Personally, I'm guessing that it the price of Bitcoin will be around $2,500. I'm thinking that "the crash" will occur early next year, and will probably be caused by a major government crackdown on cryptocurrency. Still, I'd expect the currency to be popular with the criminal underworld until something better for international money laundering comes along.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,901
1,668
126
There's already like 3 bitcoin threads why create a new one?
Because this is a contest, and I don't want it to get buried between pages 46 and 49 of the other mega Bitcoin posts. 12 months from now, we'll dig this one out of storage to find out who gets bragging rights :)
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
60,035
8,744
126
www.uovalor.com
Why do people always complain about having more than one thread on a subject. We may as well only have one thread about technology then. Merge all the forums and have 1 thread!

Funny thing is if you bump a thread then you get called out for a necro. Can't really win.
 
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LikeLinus

Lifer
Jul 25, 2001
11,171
493
126
Because there is literally a thread on this topic on the first page?

Not sure you know what Necro means.
 

Arcadio

Diamond Member
Jun 5, 2007
5,631
19
81
I'm going to take a wild guess: $32K, but only if the Lightning Network becomes functional. If LN fails or is delayed, then $3K.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,901
1,668
126
I think that there are a lot of us who think that it's going to tank. I'm curious how much the rest of us think it will drop.

I'm also curious how many people really think that it will be at $100,000 at the end of the year. I know that there are a few of you out there... Post your claim for austerity!
 
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Zeze

Lifer
Mar 4, 2011
10,454
582
126
I need an advice. My portfolio is 50% BTC, 15% VET, 35% others. I bought that 50% BTC at ATH ($187600~) before December dip. **Should I sell all of my BTC to buy VET TONIGHT?**

* If I did this, it hurts. I'm losing -25% of my BTC holding ($14,000 now) to buy VET.
* The conservative side of me thinks to leave BTC alone, but I'm feeling FOMO for VET. By the time BTC recovers, VET may have made much more returns. And I may regret not doing it.
* I have more fiat to invest from Coinbase by January 6. But I just think I can't wait that long. Who knows how much VET may grow in a week.

What do you think guys?

1. Should I dump BTC for VET at a 25% loss tonight?
2. Leave BTC alone and buy VET with more fiat full 6 days from today? (Saturday)
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,901
1,668
126
I figured that I'll give this post it's 12 month bump as promised. Looks like Arcadio might have the winning entry if the price stays where it is now, but snoopy7548 will take the win if it drops below $3000. Sure, he totally cheated by stealing my estimate, but I'm the dummy who picked Price Is Right style pricing rules :)
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
60,035
8,744
126
www.uovalor.com
Lower than last year at this time. :p

Eth is also low too, at around $120. To think, it was at around $1,600 last year. I have a bit over 1eth now. Too bad I can't go into the past to go cash it. :p
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,901
1,668
126
Lower than last year at this time. :p

Eth is also low too, at around $120. To think, it was at around $1,600 last year. I have a bit over 1eth now. Too bad I can't go into the past to go cash it. :p
Ugh... ETH is down to $88 now. That sucks for me as well, since I need a little bit of Ethereum to fund Coolcoin transactions.
 

snoopy7548

Diamond Member
Jan 1, 2005
6,585
3,466
136
I figured that I'll give this post it's 12 month bump as promised. Looks like Arcadio might have the winning entry if the price stays where it is now, but snoopy7548 will take the win if it drops below $3000. Sure, he totally cheated by stealing my estimate, but I'm the dummy who picked Price Is Right style pricing rules :)
Even if I win, you'll always be a winner to me.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
5,927
475
126
I know this was for Jan 2018 but the thread made me think about where the bottom might be for btc.

So I looked up what the trading volume is by country. See the full list here - https://irishtechnews.ie/which-country-trades-the-most-bitcoin/

US was first followed by Russia and then the UK. For the US and UK, I'm going to guess most of the interest is speculative. For Russia it's probably part speculation and part capital preservation and maybe capital control evasion like China.

I thought China would be the leader but it's actually in fifth place behind Venezuela.

China I think is mostly about evading capital controls and Venezuela is almost certainly preservation.

The point though is that btc seems to have found a pastiche of use cases. And since amount of btc that actually circulates is a tiny fraction of what has been mined, I think it's likely that the price will stay above the $1-2k range.

But if you're still brave/stupid enough to trade this, keep an eye on those sources of demand, especially capital control evasion and capital preservation. Both of those are very tolerant of btc's failings like it's notoriously long transaction times. Both are also probably immune to the high volatility since I assume that most people are only in btc long enough to trade into more stable assets.

 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,901
1,668
126
I'm going to call Arcadio the winner for 2018 since Bitcoin was at $3,675 around midnight GMT on 12/31.

I'm going to stick with $2,500 as the price target for the end of 2019.
 

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