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So... What if China's Wuhan Institute of Virology did leak covid-19?

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[DHT]Osiris

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2015
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No citation noted for dead virologists. See a mention that 3 got sick but never noticed their “death notices” in the orig. linked article or elsewhere.

Got link to the mention of their DEATHS, not simply getting ill? Thx.
Shit, yeah I misread/read that part in a hurry. They are on record as having gotten ill, not died.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2015
8,560
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So where will the politics go as the PhDs bicker?
Degree of China's culpability and nefariousness?
That's exactly where it's heading.
This is what I don't want, personally. I've never really been aiming for culpability regarding this virus, unless we actually legitimately find out something nefarious happened. I'd rather understand how it happened, so it can be prevented in the future.

Having said that, people are stupid, so I'm sure in the end we'll just have more dead Americans, one way or another.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
16,035
5,959
136
This is what I don't want, personally. I've never really been aiming for culpability regarding this virus, unless we actually legitimately find out something nefarious happened. I'd rather understand how it happened, so it can be prevented in the future.

Having said that, people are stupid, so I'm sure in the end we'll just have more dead Americans, one way or another.
And this is what it boils down to.
The very likely scenario is that it was not created but it did escape the lab.
China refuses to show its hand.
Very likely scenario solidifies.
What must be done? Up the standards at these facilities.
Can it be enforced? No.
That leaves us with reactive measures, ie. getting infrastructure ready for the next one.
Research warp-2 and 3 and 4.
The real challenge will be the morons who seek to wipe off the entirety of the blame on China as an excuse not to “waste money” on those measures.
Enter the GQP.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Diamond Member
Dec 15, 2015
8,560
4,563
146
And this is what it boils down to.
The very likely scenario is that it was not created but it did escape the lab.
China refuses to show its hand.
Very likely scenario solidifies.
What must be done? Up the standards at these facilities.
Can it be enforced? No.
That leaves us with reactive measures, ie. getting infrastructure ready for the next one.
Research warp-2 and 3 and 4.
The real challenge will be the morons who seek to wipe off the entirety of the blame on China as an excuse not to “waste money” on those measures.
Enter the GQP.
Added bonus: Chinese Americans (or frankly anyone who some idiot thinks looks Chinese) are assaulted/murdered.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
105,804
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I agree with you there. I think a major factor why some have been pushing the engineered virus/lab leak scenarios is to use it as a political tool to blame China. That's not to say China is blameless at this point. But to jump on the lab leak or engineered virus at this stage of the game, and ignore the very real possibility this virus naturally jumped species just like MERS and SARS-CoV-1 is really putting the cart before the horse. Show me the bona fide evidence of engineering or a lab leak, sure, let's discuss the political ramifications. But people are wanting to assume these theories, not based on science or legitimate rationales behind, but on what they want to believe. Its no different than JFK's magic bullet.

There's one possible political consequence that is incredibly worrisome. Let's assume the virus did escape a lab by complete accident. With the rise of anti-intellectualism across the world, the pushback is not going to be just. Absolutely, labs should be scrutinized, and its possible given China, there were serious protocol breeches, or corners cut. But we all have to think about the other side of the coin. BSL3 and BSL 4 labs have been running in the US and Europe for quite some time. When was the last time you heard about a laboratory worker or somebody in their near circle becoming infected with Ebola that escaped the lab? SARS-CoV-1? Nipah? Eastern Equine Encephalitis? West Nile? Hantavirus? Scientists in places like the US and Europe have studied these badass pathogens without any(?) or very few incidents.

There's inherent risk to studying nasty pathogens. But if we didn't have 20 years of SARS/MERS research, could we have really built a 95% effective vaccine in under a year? Would we have been able to develop Remdesivir in time? But there's going to whackjobs like Ran Paul and other anti-intellectuals and anti-science who is going to throw science under the bus. So the world will be saved by vaccines enabled by science, but then the anti-science numbskulls are going to do some serious damage to society's progress.
It's comparable to the general fear of nuclear power. You can have a 95-98% safety and success rate over 50 and more years all over the world, but it really only takes (took) a single Chernobyl or Three Mile Island or Fukushima to scare the pants off of people.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,985
14,146
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Shit, yeah I misread/read that part in a hurry. They are on record as having gotten ill, not died.
Not even that. It's a contention made by the Trump era state dept, with the caveat of the symptoms being the same as seasonal illness. Color me surprised that people in China have the same problems as the ROTW. The people promoting this crap know you want to believe it as do a lot of Americans.

 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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mmmmhmmmmm….. Maybe. Maybe not.


You know what is disqualifying? That you outright dismiss the idea without even entertaining it. It lacks integrity.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,985
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mmmmhmmmmm….. Maybe. Maybe not.


You know what is disqualifying? That you outright dismiss the idea without even entertaining it. It lacks integrity.
Yeh, I seem to have low bullshit receptivity.
 

compcons

Golden Member
Oct 22, 2004
1,854
573
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If China either screwed up or intentionally did something bad, we can do nothing about it. China is the version of Russia that we are so economically tie to that we can't do shit no matter what the origins. We can not do jack fucking squat because the world has tied itself to their cheap labor and booming economy. Sanctioning China destroys the world economy the same as the crash of '08 or worse.

Our last best chance at curbing the reliance on China was the TPP and the dumb fuck Republicans dismantled that through their dumbshit candidate Donald Trump. The TPP was the last best chance of the US keeping slave-wage labor in Asia while reducing reliance on a goddamn communist adversary. Thank you asshats for fucking that up!

Now, we can waggle a finger and tell the Chinese that we know what they did and they should clean up their act, but we have no actual means of enforcing our displeasure. It will be good to know why it happened, but in the end, the world can do nothing other than reinforce that we are all inept and China can do whatever they fucking want. China gets to sit back and think "No matter how much we fuck the world, we can do what we want. We are the greatest nation on the planet!!!"

Welcome to second-fucking-place. Brough to you by the ineptitude of the GOP. Good job!
 

abj13

Senior member
Jan 27, 2005
927
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One thing you don't see mentioned about the 3 WIV workers who may have been sick...

What if the virus naturally spilled over from animals to humans, and one of the early cases in the transmission chain was someone who worked at WIV and spread it to three other workers? We already know about the contagiousness of the virus.

Why is the assumption automatically the virus escaped from the lab and infected 3 people (inside-> out), when someone could have been infected, brought it into WIV, and spread it to those three workers (outside -> in)?

Food for thought.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
16,035
5,959
136
Yeh, I seem to have low bullshit receptivity.
So location of the lab at the epicenter of where this thing began… thats all you need to know to conclude its 100% coincidence. Did I get that right?

That is highly irrational, even illogical. You have skin in the game dude?
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,393
3,455
136
It's comparable to the general fear of nuclear power. You can have a 95-98% safety and success rate over 50 and more years all over the world, but it really only takes (took) a single Chernobyl or Three Mile Island or Fukushima to scare the pants off of people.
Why am I envisioning the Simpsons open with the "X days since a meltdown" sign as Homer heads out from the nuclear plant?
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,393
3,455
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One thing you don't see mentioned about the 3 WIV workers who may have been sick...

What if the virus naturally spilled over from animals to humans, and one of the early cases in the transmission chain was someone who worked at WIV and spread it to three other workers? We already know about the contagiousness of the virus.

Why is the assumption automatically the virus escaped from the lab and infected 3 people (inside-> out), when someone could have been infected, brought it into WIV, and spread it to those three workers (outside -> in)?

Food for thought.
Many things are possible. Probable? Let's see some supporting data.

Not so likely they were the very first cases then.

Unless one was first in line for the early bird special at the "seafood market," as WIV director Dr Shi described it in her Jan 2020 paper describing the novel virus and attributing its origin there?

Maybe she knew because that's where they order lunch? Maybe the bat soup / pango sandwich special wasn't a good idea?

 
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Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,985
14,146
136
One thing you don't see mentioned about the 3 WIV workers who may have been sick...

What if the virus naturally spilled over from animals to humans, and one of the early cases in the transmission chain was someone who worked at WIV and spread it to three other workers? We already know about the contagiousness of the virus.

Why is the assumption automatically the virus escaped from the lab and infected 3 people (inside-> out), when someone could have been infected, brought it into WIV, and spread it to those three workers (outside -> in)?

Food for thought.
To even entertain that possibility you have to believe that known liars in Trump's State Dept didn't just fabricate the story about sick virologists. That's where it came from, right? It's not like I trust the Chinese but I trust them even less. It's all sooo convenient in the creation of what has become an all too popular conspiracy theory.
 

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,393
3,455
136
Here is another lay article laying out the lab leak origins of the virus. Complementary to the Vanity Fair article in OP.

Quotes from scientists on both sides of the debate.

New York Magazine article

What shouldn't be lost in the thread so far is that incorrectly thinking manipulation of the virus is not technically feasible.
It's not easy, but it's not impossible, and very much part of the tool box of research.

The article does lay out some history of collaboration between an American pioneer in coronavirus engineering, Dr Baric, and Dr Shi from WIV.
Again, not direct proof, but more coincidences in the cloud of suspicion around that lab.

Why do they do this research? In part for future vaccine research.

So where are we? Still no closer to an answer.

There are, in fact, some helpful points of agreement between zoonoticists — those who believe in a natural origin of the SARS-2 virus — and those who believe that it probably came from a laboratory. Both sides agree, when pressed, that a lab origin can’t be conclusively ruled out and a natural origin can’t be ruled out either — because nature, after all, is capable of improbable, teleological-seeming achievements
 
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Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,393
3,455
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Now a turn on the zoonotic (animal) origin side.

Technical paper from Nature:
Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses circulating in bats and pangolins in Southeast Asia

Additional sequence similarity analysis, Ace2 affinity studies across additional viral sequences from bats and pangolins.


Summary:

Many other bat viruses were sampled across a broad region across se Asia. Thailand to Japan.

Cov2 most similar to bat viruses, but diverge in S protein.
Bat viruses show poor affinity to human and pango Ace2 receptors (poor to no ability to infect.) Suggests the bat viruses use an entirely different infection mechanism.

Pango SARS virus S protein has high affinity to human Ace2, but highly divergent in other parts of virus, and not a likely progenitor.

Overall, expands range and variety of cvs that are found across Asia, but poor infectivity between species continues to require either a rare recombination event between the two viruses within one of those species, or in a yet to be identified intermediate host animal, and we should keep looking.

The rich diversity of SC2r-CoVs in the region suggests that there is a high probability to find the immediate progenitor virus of SARS-CoV-2 with intensified and internationally coordinated surveillance.
 
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Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,916
1,362
126
I have been to several developing countries in Asia and to several different wet markets. They have a lot of wild animals sold as snacks, foods, or pets. Humans are getting closer and close to wild animals and are reaping the consequences. Covid 19 won't be the last.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
67,178
3,863
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What if China's Wuhan Institute of Virology did leak?


I suppose what it means is that the idea it didn't leak doesn't hold water.
 
Nov 8, 2012
19,728
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Uh.... ohhhhhh.....

One of the political hollywood folks suggested the rational argument that just...maybe perhaps.... the virus stemming from a virology lab where 3 people that worked at the lab checked themselves into a hospital around the time of the intiial spread... might be a reasonable argument....




You know what that means, right?

NOW and only now... do we question the thought of listening to celebrities in regards to politics and news lol.... in all those cases where they agree and echo with us though? "YAAAAASSSS Listen and believe!"




Keep on tooling you shithole media.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
6,688
5,348
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Uh.... ohhhhhh.....

One of the political hollywood folks suggested the rational argument that just...maybe perhaps.... the virus stemming from a virology lab where 3 people that worked at the lab checked themselves into a hospital around the time of the intiial spread... might be a reasonable argument....




You know what that means, right?

NOW and only now... do we question the thought of listening to celebrities in regards to politics and news lol.... in all those cases where they agree and echo with us though? "YAAAAASSSS Listen and believe!"




Keep on tooling you shithole media.
You're one of the dumbest mother fuckers who posts here.

Clearly you're into S&M, otherwise you'd have stopped years ago.

Newsflash, dipshit, no one but dipshits like you care about what celebrities say.

Why don't you go ask Charles Barkley what he thinks about Jon Stewart's opinion.
 
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uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
4,564
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Uh.... ohhhhhh.....

One of the political hollywood folks suggested the rational argument that just...maybe perhaps.... the virus stemming from a virology lab where 3 people that worked at the lab checked themselves into a hospital around the time of the intiial spread... might be a reasonable argument....




You know what that means, right?

NOW and only now... do we question the thought of listening to celebrities in regards to politics and news lol.... in all those cases where they agree and echo with us though? "YAAAAASSSS Listen and believe!"




Keep on tooling you shithole media.
I know this may come as a shock to you, but by and large "we" tend to be sympathetic to people with rational arguments supported by data. On the contrary, "we" also generally lampoon people making possibly outlandish or unsubstantiated claims.

Whether or not people are celebrities or not generally has no meaning on whether we agree or disagree with them, as long as the above conditions are met.

John Stewart is wrong on this. Shocking, he's not a scientist.

Stop believing celebrities. They're bad resources.
 

compcons

Golden Member
Oct 22, 2004
1,854
573
136
I know this may come as a shock to you, but by and large "we" tend to be sympathetic to people with rational arguments supported by data. On the contrary, "we" also generally lampoon people making possibly outlandish or unsubstantiated claims.

Whether or not people are celebrities or not generally has no meaning on whether we agree or disagree with them, as long as the above conditions are met.

John Stewart is wrong on this. Shocking, he's not a scientist.

Stop believing celebrities. They're bad resources.
He is so vested in his team that he thinks everyone else is as well. It's a common trait of conservatives. They project their team first mentality onto everyone.
 

blankslate

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2008
8,492
435
126

A pretty good article on why the idea of a lab leak is likely to be complete bs. Covers all the major points that were touched upon in this thread.
It's a hypothesis not a theory as it hasn't been investigated/tested. I'll leave any reasoning as to why people who should know better use the word theory when the word hypothesis is the correct word to others.

To address the OP's question Anything to be done if investigation bears out the hypothesis is for scientists to get together and improve the safety procedures/strategies/protocols of labs which work with infectious viruses and bacteria.
that's about it.

<emphasis added for answer for OP question>



_______________
 
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