So WHAT ARE the chances someone McCains age and history will die in the next 4 years?

[techs]

Lots of talk about McCain picking Palin being a mistake because she's not ready and McCain is older and may die.
So can anyone actually (or actuarilly) give the percentages??

 

[jpeyton]

1/5 I think.

 

[dbk]

US life expectancy for males is 75. McCain is 72. However, he does have a history with melanoma and was a POW in Vietnam. If he were to become the POTUS he would receive the best care in the world. So lower than average, IMO.

 

[nageov3t]

doesn't seem likely to me... they've kept Cheney alive, and McCain doesn't have a history of heart-attacks that I'm aware of (yes, there's the cancer thing, but cancer is usually a slow death, not something that would strike him down unawares in the middle of the day).

he's old, but he's also got the best medical care in the world 30 seconds away at any point in time.

 

[ProfJohn]

Historical facts:

McCain's mom is still alive at 90+

The last President to die before the age of 81 was LBJ who died at 64. But LBJ was also a heavy smoker.

Prior to LBJ you have to go back to Roosevelt who died at the age of 63, and he too had a history of health problems.

In short, of the last 10 Presidents (not including Clinton who is 62 or Kennedy who was killed) 8 of them lived to be at least 78. That is 6 years older than McCain is today.

 

[sportage]

I have a better question. What are the chances Mccain elected will kill the rest of us off in the next four years??? THATS the worry...

 

[Veramocor]

I read somewhere 1/6.

 

[ProfJohn]

Think of it this way:
If you don't include the heavy smoker or the guy who spent most of his life in a wheel chair you would have to go back to 1933 to find a President who died before the age of 78. 1993 is 3 years before McCain was even born.

I think what would really be interesting is to take the age at which Presidents died and compare it to the average life expectance at that time. Then we could really make a good comparison.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Think of it this way:
If you don't include the heavy smoker or the guy who spent most of his life in a wheel chair you would have to go back to 1933 to find a President who died before the age of 78. 1993 is 3 years before McCain was even born.

I think what would really be interesting is to take the age at which Presidents died and compare it to the average life expectance at that time. Then we could really make a good comparison.

The last old guy we put in there was proven to have been losing his mind at least halfway through his second term. There are other factors to consider.

 

[jpeyton]

Cancer b***h.

Do you have it?

 

[halik]

I would say the fact that his mom is alive and very lively gives him a better than average life expectancy. If both of your parents died of heart diease in their 50s, you know yours would be lower.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Cancer b***h.

Do you have it?

...

 

[First]

McCain had a serious form of cancer that could quite obviously spring up again without notice, something neither LBJ or FDR had. He was also tortured and probably not fed all that well for 5 years in Vietnam. Without question, McCain's medical history is at least as worrisome as FDR, LBJ, or practically any president, and his age just makes it that much more worrisome.

Anyone who is honest knows McCain could very well die in office, and that there's a greater than single digit chance it'll happen.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Cancer b***h.

Do you have it?

You are a sick individual.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Ocguy31

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Cancer b***h.

Do you have it?

You are a sick individual.

There are over a half-million cancer related deaths per year in our country.

Cancer kills.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Evan Lieb
McCain had a serious form of cancer that could quite obviously spring up again without notice, something neither LBJ or FDR had. He was also tortured and probably not fed all that well for 5 years in Vietnam. Without question, McCain's medical history is at least as worrisome as FDR, LBJ, or practically any president, and his age just makes it that much more worrisome.

Anyone who is honest knows McCain could very well die in office, and that there's a greater than single digit chance it'll happen.

considering that McCain has regular checks, knows what to look out for, and takes appropriate precautions, I wouldn't say that his history of cancer is a terribly worrisome thing.

I'd be more concerned about developing alzheimer's or other mental problem associated with age than McCain dropping dead in the oval office.

 

[insurgent]

Why bother guessing what the chances are, his VP pick is already proof of a deteriorating logic. That's my opinion as a non-American.

 

[Harvey]

I found a couple of quick specs. No guarantee of accuracy, but combined, they're serious enough that I believe it's a legitimate issue that should be addressed by competent authorities.

From research from the University of Chicago:

Among male non-smokers, 70 percent of the men who turned 60 in 1990 will be alive by age 80, while 73 percent of those who turned 60 in 1996 are expected to live to age 80, according to the same data.

From WrongDiagnosis.com:

Prognosis of Melanoma

Survival rate statistics for Melanoma: The following are statistics from various sources about the survival rate for Melanoma:
.
.
27.7% of people with multiple melanomas survive after 5 years in the US 1983-90

McCain has a 73% chance of making it to 80. That 27.7% chance for those with multiple melanomas is cause for serious concern. I'm sure it's more complex, but simple straight line multiplication makes his chances 20.211%, and that's before considering the effects of the stress of the office. :shocked:

 

[nageov3t]

now, I'd never accuse Harvey of bias, but I think you may have accidentally quoted the absolute worst statistics and ignored everything else at that site

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: Harvey
I found a couple of quick specs. No guarantee of accuracy, but combined, they're serious enough that I believe it's a legitimate issue that should be addressed by competent authorities.

From research from the University of Chicago:

Among male non-smokers, 70 percent of the men who turned 60 in 1990 will be alive by age 80, while 73 percent of those who turned 60 in 1996 are expected to live to age 80, according to the same data.

From WrongDiagnosis.com:

Prognosis of Melanoma

Survival rate statistics for Melanoma: The following are statistics from various sources about the survival rate for Melanoma:
.
.
27.7% of people with multiple melanomas survive after 5 years in the US 1983-90

McCain has a 73% chance of making it to 80. That 27.7% chance for those with multiple melanomas is cause for serious concern. I'm sure it's more complex, but simple straight line multiplication makes his chances 20.211%, and that's before considering the effects of the stress of the office. :shocked:

Yes, CNN reported ~1/5 chance as well. Don't forget to add that residual stress from war, crashing planes 5 times, spending 5 years being tortured, etc. What we do in our lives everyday, regarding diet, stress, fatigue, etc., all affects our lifespan directly.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: techs
Lots of talk about McCain picking Palin being a mistake because she's not ready and McCain is older and may die.
So can anyone actually (or actuarilly) give the percentages??

They had a guy on CNN a few weeks ago that does actuarial calculations...
He stated that there was a 22% chance of McCain not surviving the first 4 years, and a 35% chance of him needing to resign due to health (inclusive of that 22%).

 

[Harvey]

Originally posted by: loki8481

now, I'd never accuse Harvey of bias, but I think you may have accidentally quoted the absolute worst statistics and ignored everything else at that site

No, I said it was a quick spec. I just searched Google for what I could find as a starting point. It's more info than anyone else posted, and the sources are at least credible.

By all means, go find more info. I don't wish any McCain any physical harm, but one thing I know for certain is, unless Obama has some undisclosed fatal condition, McCain's odds of surviving a term or two as President are not as good as Obama's.

Originally posted by: Viditor

They had a guy on CNN a few weeks ago that does actuarial calculations...
He stated that there was a 22% chance of McCain not surviving the first 4 years, and a 35% chance of him needing to resign due to health (inclusive of that 22%).

That would be consistant with the 20% approximation from my previous post.

 

[silverpig]

Heh, imagine being McCain right now, knowing that there are a LOT of people out there calculating your chances of dying in the next 4 years.

I know actuaries do it for everyone already, but not specifically so.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Mother's longevity aside, consider that Senator McCain already has outlived both John Sidney McCain and John Sidney McCain, Jr.

Re: the life span of other presidents, I would not consider the longevity of a small group of unrelated individuals to be in any way predictive of the longevity of a new member of the group.

As for the Senator's clean bill of health, Tim Russert had full physical and a clean bill of health shortly before his sudden demise.

In short, given his current age and medical history, he could live to serve two full terms and have a long and productive retirement. Or he could drop dead at his inauguration. Or anything in between.

 

[chess9]

The guy (McCain) is old as dirt. He's gonna' die, and sooner rather than later if he is President. Look how bad Bush looks! Bush could keel over any minute from worry, the poor soul.

Just because his mother is old and sharp doesn't mean McCain will get that old. His father is DEAD and he's been dead for quite awhile. Furthermore, McCain had the shit kicked out of him in 'Nam. That experience didn't add years to his life, like taking COQ-10 or Fish Oil. LOL.

Regardless, he could die any of a 100 ways, which means Palin would be President. Now I can tell some of you think that would be the perfect scenario for America's last days.

Do I need a tin foil hat yet?

-Robert