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So it has started: New housing starts drop 17% in March

Sweet! We're looking at buying a house in the next few years, and if there is more supply than demand, well, that seems good to me.

As long as interest rates aren't like 12%.
 
No problem. I already sold the house I bought in 1991 for $15k last month for $8 B and now I will take my winnings and live in five star hotels for the rest of my life.
 
1 month drop doesn't mean anything

though I would love to be able to afford a house

demand here is to high

if the is a significant drop i'm sure demand is going to shoot straight up (in my area anyway)
 
Originally posted by: mchammer187
1 month drop doesn't mean anything

though I would love to be able to afford a house

demand here is to high

if the is a significant drop i'm sure demand is going to shoot straight up (in my area anyway)
Click to expand...

Note that it's the biggest drop in 14 years.

I would say that means something.

Viper GTS
 
Originally posted by: mchammer187
1 month drop doesn't mean anything

though I would love to be able to afford a house

demand here is to high

if the is a significant drop i'm sure demand is going to shoot straight up (in my area anyway)
Click to expand...


Don't forget that less purchases means high interest rates.
 
Originally posted by: kyparrish
Sweet! We're looking at buying a house in the next few years, and if there is more supply than demand, well, that seems good to me.

As long as interest rates aren't like 12%.
Click to expand...

If you buy a $120,000 house @ 12% your P/I will equal a $200,000 @ 6%.



Tom

 
Originally posted by: kranky
Housing starts = number of single family and multifamily homes beginning to be built.
Click to expand...

Yeah...I'm sort of confused. Does this article mean less people are buying property now or that less houses are being built?
 
Originally posted by: PingSpike
Originally posted by: kranky
Housing starts = number of single family and multifamily homes beginning to be built.
Click to expand...

Yeah...I'm sort of confused. Does this article mean less people are buying property now or that less houses are being built?
Click to expand...

Less new houses are being bult, which means less people are buying property. Remember, that sale of existing housing doesn't matter since people who sold their house have to buy another one.
 
Originally posted by: Argo
Originally posted by: PingSpike
Originally posted by: kranky
Housing starts = number of single family and multifamily homes beginning to be built.
Click to expand...

Yeah...I'm sort of confused. Does this article mean less people are buying property now or that less houses are being built?
Click to expand...

Less new houses are being bult, which means less people are buying property. Remember, that sale of existing housing doesn't matter since people who sold their house have to buy another one.
Click to expand...

In buying another one, it doesn't necessarily mean new construction. For example, let's say I bought a 2 bdrm condo back in '91 and my family has grown from 2 to 4 since then. I decided to sell my condo for $250k and buy a 3 bdrm townhome for $350k. This would make more sense to me than buying a $550k 4 brdm home (new) since I have to worry about putting my kids through college.
 
Originally posted by: mchammer187
1 month drop doesn't mean anything

though I would love to be able to afford a house

demand here is to high

if the is a significant drop i'm sure demand is going to shoot straight up (in my area anyway)
Click to expand...

The moment I saw your message I said Virginia...sucks to be living here!
 
From my understanding of it, the housing starts stat tends to lag behind the original impetus as development contracts are usually established months in advance.

The next few years should be pretty interesting in the real estate market. It'll be particularly interesting to see what impact the current trend of leveraging debt via refinancing has.
 
Originally posted by: ragazzo
Originally posted by: Argo
Originally posted by: PingSpike
Originally posted by: kranky
Housing starts = number of single family and multifamily homes beginning to be built.
Click to expand...

Yeah...I'm sort of confused. Does this article mean less people are buying property now or that less houses are being built?
Click to expand...

Less new houses are being bult, which means less people are buying property. Remember, that sale of existing housing doesn't matter since people who sold their house have to buy another one.
Click to expand...

In buying another one, it doesn't necessarily mean new construction. For example, let's say I bought a 2 bdrm condo back in '91 and my family has grown from 2 to 4 since then. I decided to sell my condo for $250k and buy a 3 bdrm townhome for $350k. This would make more sense to me than buying a $550k 4 brdm home (new) since I have to worry about putting my kids through college.
Click to expand...

Well, that was my whole point. New housing contruction is the only indicator of growing demand. Buying/selling existing housing is just a closed loop.
 
Ok, that makes sense. Thanks Argo and ragazzo.

Well, I'm sure interest rates will go up on the other end...but at least I might not be facing a market that the seller has total control over anymore.
 
Originally posted by: Parrotheader
From my understanding of it, the housing starts stat tends to lag behind the original impetus as development contracts are usually established months in advance.

The next few years should be pretty interesting in the real estate market. It'll be particularly interesting to see what impact the current trend of leveraging debt via refinancing has.
Click to expand...
Bankruptcies for everyone!
 
Originally posted by: Budmantom
Originally posted by: kyparrish
Sweet! We're looking at buying a house in the next few years, and if there is more supply than demand, well, that seems good to me.

As long as interest rates aren't like 12%.
Click to expand...

If you buy a $120,000 house @ 12% your P/I will equal a $200,000 @ 6%.



Tom
Click to expand...

I doubt interest rates will go up that far and even if it did, your tax deductions would be better at 12% than at 6%.
 
I like how the "experts" in the article try to spin this as a bad thing. Well, maybe the fact that new housing costs so much that only upper middle class can afford them is the reason for that.
 
Originally posted by: Doggiedog
Originally posted by: Budmantom
Originally posted by: kyparrish
Sweet! We're looking at buying a house in the next few years, and if there is more supply than demand, well, that seems good to me.

As long as interest rates aren't like 12%.
Click to expand...

If you buy a $120,000 house @ 12% your P/I will equal a $200,000 @ 6%.



Tom
Click to expand...

I doubt interest rates will go up that far and even if it did, your tax deductions would be better at 12% than at 6%.
Click to expand...

Also, don't forget that fact that you can refi down the road if rates come down again, but you can't go back and renegotiate the price!
 
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