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So is there anyone else that still thinks crude prices reflected supply and demand?

halik

Lifer
Oct 10, 2000
25,696
1
0
Did supply and/or demand change to warrant 35% discount on crude clearing prices?
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
141
116
It's an election year. Every little psychological boost helps, even if it's giving the American people cheaper gas for a few months.

Remember that the oil companies have a whole f*****g lot on the line this November as well. Exxon has been buying obscene amounts of ad time on networks to advertise their "clean" and "helpful" image.

They have to fight nationwide to keep the people friendly to their business practices in power, or they risk losing billions in subsidies and tax cuts over the next four years.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,061
494
126
I dont believe it was 100% the reason. But it certainly played a part. The tumble started on news of increased supply due to lower demand.
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,061
494
126
Originally posted by: jpeyton
It's an election year. Every little psychological boost helps, even if it's giving the American people cheaper gas for a few months.

Remember that the oil companies have a whole f*****g lot on the line this November as well. Exxon has been buying obscene amounts of ad time on networks to advertise their "clean" and "helpful" image.

They have to fight nationwide to keep the people friendly to their business practices in power, or they risk losing billions in subsidies and tax cuts over the next four years.
How much do our domestic oil companies hold in terms of the worlds oil supply?
 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,062
1
0
they reflected supply and demand, unfortunately a large amount of the demand was not for typical uses of oil, and instead was based on people holding it with the expectation that it would be worth more in the future. And then they lost their shirts, and much lulz where had.
 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,062
1
0
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: jpeyton
It's an election year. Every little psychological boost helps, even if it's giving the American people cheaper gas for a few months.

Remember that the oil companies have a whole f*****g lot on the line this November as well. Exxon has been buying obscene amounts of ad time on networks to advertise their "clean" and "helpful" image.

They have to fight nationwide to keep the people friendly to their business practices in power, or they risk losing billions in subsidies and tax cuts over the next four years.
How much do our domestic oil companies hold in terms of the worlds oil supply?
domestic oil production is like 8% of world production iirc.
 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,547
651
126
This has been talked to death. Supply/Demand, devaluation of the USD, speculation, etc...
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,061
494
126
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: jpeyton
It's an election year. Every little psychological boost helps, even if it's giving the American people cheaper gas for a few months.

Remember that the oil companies have a whole f*****g lot on the line this November as well. Exxon has been buying obscene amounts of ad time on networks to advertise their "clean" and "helpful" image.

They have to fight nationwide to keep the people friendly to their business practices in power, or they risk losing billions in subsidies and tax cuts over the next four years.
How much do our domestic oil companies hold in terms of the worlds oil supply?
domestic oil production is like 8% of world production iirc.
Thank you.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,025
5,107
126
Originally posted by: halik
Did supply and/or demand change to warrant 35% discount on crude clearing prices?
Yes. Prices are set on the margins, so even a small shift in supply and demand can make for a big shift in price.
 

351Cleveland

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2001
1,381
6
81
"Those evil oil companies... jacking up the price of oil."

"Those evil oil companies... jacking down the price of oil."

Go figure. Short of going out of business, there is nothing energy companies can do to make you kooks happy.

 

lupi

Lifer
Apr 8, 2001
32,539
260
126
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: Genx87
Originally posted by: jpeyton
It's an election year. Every little psychological boost helps, even if it's giving the American people cheaper gas for a few months.

Remember that the oil companies have a whole f*****g lot on the line this November as well. Exxon has been buying obscene amounts of ad time on networks to advertise their "clean" and "helpful" image.

They have to fight nationwide to keep the people friendly to their business practices in power, or they risk losing billions in subsidies and tax cuts over the next four years.
How much do our domestic oil companies hold in terms of the worlds oil supply?
domestic oil production is like 8% of world production iirc.
Me thinks that was a loaded question for our daily kos correspondent.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
30,246
3,783
126
Originally posted by: 351Cleveland
"Those evil oil companies... jacking up the price of oil."

"Those evil oil companies... jacking down the price of oil."

Go figure. Short of going out of business, there is nothing energy companies can do to make you kooks happy.
You're close, but not entirely accurate. Dems want them to shut down and accept federal control. Viva Chavez and the like.
 

desy

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2000
5,386
150
106
Still a commodity, still traded on who is willing to pay vs those willing to sell
Summer driving season is over
High prices have reduced demand, prices fall

Just like every year for the last 50 if you bothered to look at a graph, just this yr the fall was a little more precipitus.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
Perhaps a more accurate statement would be that projected decreased demand from an Europe in recession and an Asia that is now recognized as slowing (Asia apparently exports a lot of their stuff to Europe), in addition to a multitude of other factors, accounts for the popping of the speculative bubble (fuel for the speculative bubble was / perhaps still is the compelling narrative that demand from emerging markets would cause total global demand to exceed total global supply in the next couple years). See graph on page 6 here.


A recent Oakmark Shareholder Letter points out that other commodities that are not traded on the futures market have also increased dramatically:

"...commodities that have no futures markets, such as iron ore, metallurgical coal, and certain agricultural products, have seen their prices go up as much, if not more, than those commodities that do trade on a futures market. This is because the demand for these commodities has far outstripped the supply, resulting in higher prices. As has been obvious for more than two years now, the supply-demand picture for oil has roughly been in balance, which means it assumed no growth in the world economy. However, to match the growth in demand that is actually occurring, the world needs to produce a few million more barrels of oil a day, which is not possible at present. Even if demand in the developed world drops substantially, according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency in Paris that drop will be offset by an increase in demand of 3.7% a year from 2008 to 2013. Indeed, that same report indicated that China, with continued IMF predictions of double-digit economic growth for the foreseeable future, will sop up roughly a third of the demand increase in that same 2008 to 2013 period"


 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,062
1
0
Originally posted by: Jaskalas
Originally posted by: 351Cleveland
"Those evil oil companies... jacking up the price of oil."

"Those evil oil companies... jacking down the price of oil."

Go figure. Short of going out of business, there is nothing energy companies can do to make you kooks happy.
You're close, but not entirely accurate. Dems want them to shut down and accept federal control. Viva Chavez and the like.
you can go sit in the idiot circle.
 

wwswimming

Banned
Jan 21, 2006
3,702
1
0
oil prices don't just reflect supply & demand in the stock market.

they also reflect supply & demand in investment markets. people invested
in oil futures because, for a while, they thought they could get a better
return there.
 

blackangst1

Lifer
Feb 23, 2005
20,980
849
126
Originally posted by: wwswimming
oil prices don't just reflect supply & demand in the stock market.

they also reflect supply & demand in investment markets. people invested
in oil futures because, for a while, they thought they could get a better
return there.
You can make as much money with falling prices as you can with rising. Margins go both ways.
 

351Cleveland

Golden Member
Apr 14, 2001
1,381
6
81
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
Originally posted by: Jaskalas
Originally posted by: 351Cleveland
"Those evil oil companies... jacking up the price of oil."

"Those evil oil companies... jacking down the price of oil."

Go figure. Short of going out of business, there is nothing energy companies can do to make you kooks happy.
You're close, but not entirely accurate. Dems want them to shut down and accept federal control. Viva Chavez and the like.
you can go sit in the idiot circle.
Why? Straight from the mouths of liberals (Lord only knows how this idiot was ever elected, but she was).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KN6s1KVFBNg

 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
2
0
Originally posted by: senseamp
Originally posted by: halik
Did supply and/or demand change to warrant 35% discount on crude clearing prices?
Yes. Prices are set on the margins, so even a small shift in supply and demand can make for a big shift in price.
Lawls, would you say that if it dropped to $50?
they also reflect supply & demand in investment markets. people invested
in oil futures because, for a while, they thought they could get a better
return there.
If we go this far, obviously bubbles are impossible because they all reprsent an investment demand/supply relationship. The supposition was that the demand was unreasonable and not in line with reality, hence an unnatural bump in value.
 

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
Originally posted by: halik
Did supply and/or demand change to warrant 35% discount on crude clearing prices?
You made the thread and phrased it as a callout. Maybe you should look up the numbers before sticking your neck out. Demand had been falling considerably, at least in the US.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: CycloWizard
Originally posted by: halik
Did supply and/or demand change to warrant 35% discount on crude clearing prices?
You made the thread and phrased it as a callout. Maybe you should look up the numbers before sticking your neck out. Demand had been falling considerably, at least in the US.
Is that the ox pulling the cart, or the cart pulling the ox?
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: CycloWizard
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Is that the ox pulling the cart, or the cart pulling the ox?
Burden of proof.
The price didn't drop because demand moved, the demand dropped when the price kept going up.

There has been 3 companies destroyed by the market falling, eliminating a huge portion of the trading activity. another hedge fund exited the commodities market yesterday after getting murdered.

TB Picken's own hedge fund was sustained huge losses because of falling commodities.

Everybody knows what happened, nobody wants to admit it.
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY