So how bad do you think the economy is going to get?

[KDOG]

Anyone gettin' worried? All these big companies cuttin' jobs isn't good. Are we talkin' stockpile the food and water here or just a bump in the road?

AWW Crap Wrong Forum sorry!!

 

[SUOrangeman]

Just a shift in the "what's hot" industries. Not to worry. (OK, so I I have money in the market and can't touch it 'til retirement anyway. By then, the turn-o-the-millennium will be a mere bump.)

-SUO

 

[BChico]

Oh my god, it better start swinging towards tech stocks again, my portfolio lost 46.2% since i began investing last march, that money was for college, damn i picked a really good time to get in, lol nasdaq was at like 4800, now 2100, hahahaha, hmmm time to get a job...

 

[SiliconVandal]

The economy is NOT DECLINING. I think this is a common misconception. The economy has just stopped inclining as much, which has resulted in the job loss's, etc..but it has not declined..infact, its still inclining, at a very slow rate.

SV

 

[Davegod75]

off topic forum maybe

 

[KpocAlypse]

Silcon's right, where no where near a down turn yet. Our economy has seen much much worse, we've just been very lucky over the last few years..Whats accually funny though is that people simply saying the economy is in the slumps, causes it to be. Just ask an Economist. (i'm far from one, just took a few classes)



Crap, you're right, wrong forum..

 

[Grminalac]

I think the market is going to continue to drop for some time, in my belief it was overvalued these last couple years. i expect it to steadily drop, probably below what it should be due to downward momentum. It will then rebound. Kinda like a rubber band when pulled bounces back and forth. I am just glad the market is settling sooner than later. I would rather have a market that shows it worth rather than one overvalued. Too much false growth (such as the growth that was occuring due to all the tech stock booms) leads to trouble. It caused this small recession now, but could have caused a depression if it got out of hand.

 

[Tominator]

The economy has been in a sharp decline for over a year. If you were actually involved in it as I am, you'd have no doubt. EVERY large business in the US has announced very low earnings, layoffs and cutbacks in production.

The Government figures are several months behind what really goes on and the Pundits the Media always interviews are yesterdays 90 day wonders doing anything they can to decry what is really going on. They are trying to talk 'big' as they stand to lose everything!

Overall, it is just a 'bump in the road.' But it is a bunp that is going to ruin thousands of investor's dreams.

BTW, it is 'inclining,' but not at a rate that business can subsist on. The so-called recession we had from '89 to '91 was a peep compared to this! Even then growth rarely went below 4% and most businesses were doing quite well.....the same businesses that are literally running scared today...

 

[KpocAlypse]

Could be like this...

Recent Japan Article


People think ours is bad, check out the Economic heavyweight of the 80's. You might say its bad, but just be thankful it isn't going down like some other countries economies..

 

[smp]

yeah.. all the talk of a recession makes ppl pull money out and such right? So it just gets worse? hence "downward spiral?"
I need to learn more about business and stocks and stuff.. i want to invest in space travel

 

[jamarno]

I don't understand why the slow growth is such a surprise because the index of leading economic indicators had been negative almost throughout all of 2000. These indicators have been fairly good at predicting the course of the economy.

Japan has never been an important factor in the world economy except in industries dominated by scientists and engineers, and its current problems are only in businesses not dominated by such people. Japan actually had a chance for recovery in the mid-1990s, but its then prime minister made it stall it by raising taxes in the middle of a recession, and its central bank has been acting just like the U.S. Federal Reserve of the 1920s.

 

[dcdomain]

Everything goes in cycles, I'm just worried this time, because the high was so high, the low might get VERY low... other than that, things like this are to be expected, and you just gotta stick it out... everyone hang tight.

 

[Workin']

<< If you were actually involved in it as I am >>

Isn't EVERYONE involved in the economy? Or do YOU actually set economic policy?

All this talk about the current major economic crisis just makes me laugh. A bunch of morons throw all of their money behind unsustainable businesses with no plan or hope of making a profit ever and then are surprised when they go out of business and they lose their investment? Solid businesses with solid management and their heads screwed on straight will always do well. Even during the Great Depression people still had jobs and many became wealthy. Master the fundamentals, the rest will follow. To paraphrase Gordon Gecko, a little greed is good. Unbridled greed will screw you every time.

Of course, when the job being lost is YOURS, it's always an economic crisis, no matter how the economy as a whole is doing. The company I work for is experiencing record profits and double digit growth in both sales and profits. But we are not a dot-com, we're an old economy firm. Not glamorous but our privately held stock consistently gives 20% returns. As one of the few techies who work here, I almost considered jumping ship for something flashier. Boy, am I glad I stayed put.

But all this talk of recession is silly. But then again, I graduated from school in 1981, the peak of a real recession. 10.8% unemployment, but we still survived. This too shall pass.

 

[skace]

Uhm, Just a guess here but I think by involved he meant &quot;paying attention to what is going on&quot;. Its like having a conversation about sports and 3/5 people watch sports everyday and follow every record and the other 2 just catch the highlights on the 6am news. All 5 people could hold a conversation, but 3 of those 5 people would be more involved and thus know more of what is going on...

 

[wyvrn]

Not all business are reporting problems, I would like to see a single report that says this. Unemployement is still at an all time low. Simply jobs are opening here and closing there, but the media rarely posts reports of a company hiring 50,000 new workers. The panic of the markets are usually driven by the sensationalist, brain-dead popular media who almost always fail to look at the long-term trends of the market. Instead, go to cnn or msnbc and listen to their market analysts, you will get a much better depiction of what is going on.

If you invest your money wisely, then these market corrections are not going to effect you. Diversification in a mutual fund means one sector taking a hit will not drive your value down to hell.

The market is a long term instrument, not a short term one. If you have lost money, do not sell your shares, you are only guaranteeing yourself a loss. Be patient. Only 1.8% of profits generated by the stock market come from &quot;timing&quot;. So ignore the &quot;hot tips&quot; people try to give you, pick a solid fund family, use only discretionary funds and not money you will need to use in the short term, and sit back and let the market do its mojo for you.

And yes this needs to be moved to Off Topic.

 

[Tominator]

Workin'

If you were actually seeing the results of the slowing economy first hand, and I do, you'd not need to ask the question to begin with. You would know!

There is only one real indicator of our economy. That is how much product is produced and shipped. Every aspect is in whole or part determined by the Consumer/End User. And he has the biggest effect on how much money is spent and therefore how many jobs are created. Without expansion brought about by Consumer spending the economy stagnates. We are seeing that result at the present.

I'm employed by the largest company of it's kind. Last year was decidely unkind to EVERY large company in the US with few, very few, exceptions. Every company we deal with has drastically scaled back expectations for 2001. There are already massive restructuring efforts underway as few will have real growth this year. Yes, there is light at the end of the tunnel, but the trek to that light is going to be most unpleasant.

I might add that Reagan Tax Cuts got us out of the pre '81 resession just as those proposed by Bush can help us out of this one. The House has progressed very nicely, but we'll see what the Senate does. I'm afraid it might be too little too late.

Remember, we are talking about Fortune 500 companies that indeed have their heads screwed on straight!

 

[wyvrn]

I am sure form your perpective, Tominator, that the economy is in a decline. But I have seen market analysts who disagree with you. Of course market analysts disagree with themselves, but that is another matter

 

[Midnight Rambler]

<< I might add that Reagan Tax Cuts got us out of the pre '81 resession just as those proposed by Bush can help us out of this one. The House has progressed very nicely, but we'll see what the Senate does. I'm afraid it might be too little too late >>

Relying on this tax cut to boost the economy anytime soon is but a pipedream. First and foremost, the avg. taxpayer (family of 4, $60K annual income) will see $320 back this year, and a total of approx. $1600 over the life of the tax cut plan. Certainly nothing to majorly boost consumer spending in that pittance. But the real failure of this tax cut is that the business/companies which would create jobs, etc. from their realized tax savings will not be seeing that tax savings until 2005 or 2006. Way too late ...

Also, despite what some are saying, the auto industry and the computer industry saw a bit of an uptick last month. The durables report, after backing out aircraft, showed a 6.5% increase in computers. As for the auto industry, a lot of the excess inventory has been worked off and the industry forecasts have been bumped back up a little bit to their original 16-16.5M units. Now this could go south again any time, but nobody really knows for sure at this point.

My favorite quote on all this - &quot;If we're not careful, we're going to talk ourselves in to a recession.&quot;

Meaning, things aren't great by any means, but the overhype of this downturn is just putting on more pressure. Time for people to turn off CNBC, ignore some of the clueless analysts, and weather the storm. Historically, the longest bear market has been around 13 months, and we're now in month 12 of this bear market. It also takes 6-9 months for any real effects to be realized from interest rate cuts. Finally, far too many &quot;analysts&quot; thought they had a crystal ball view of the Fed's mindset - they were calling for, and factoring in, rate cuts that were far beyond any historical precedent, timing-wise. This has also hurt the market.

If Bush really was serious about jumpstarting the economy, he'd be taking major action on the soaring energy prices situation, which is likely the biggest negative factor in all of this. But that will never happen, as the major energy companies and utilities are all in his pocket (top 5 campaign financers). The increases in energy prices (and their companys' record profits) are nothing short of obscene.

 

[novon]

Will Design for (blank)

 

[glen]

I lost my job today.

 

[Ferocious]

I don't know of any evidence of tax-cutting resulting in improved economic conditions.

Reagan proved you could temporarily jumpstart the economy by manufacturing jobs and such through increased government spending. But we all know the ramifications of that failed concept.

This economy will probably stabilize shortly but it will be a slow recovery for the next 3 years. A speedy recovery should happen after we elect a legit President.

 

[JellyBaby]

Midnight Rambler,

Consumer confidence is another factor. Tax cuts wil boost confidence. Besides, it's the right thing to do recession or no. The democrats seem to want to block parts of the proposal. Surely they wouldn't put politics over the good of the nation?

I agree the media is in a frenzy right now. Curious this frenzy was delayed until we had a new president.

Clinton/Gore/Richardson had no energy policy which helped bring us into this mess with gas and fuel oil prices. Whose pocket are the Big Energy Companies in again? In any case Junior George does indeed need to get on top of this issue. And not by opening up the Alaskan preserves (which still might be a good idea, just won't help anything in the here and now).

 

[Luchini]

First of all, I don't understand how you could argue that Bush is the reason for this decline. As I recall, Clinton was in office when a slowdown first showed signs of being on the horizon. Like a coach who gets too much credit when his team does well or too much blame when his team performs poorly, a president gets too much credit for a good economy and vice versa. If you listen to Greenspan's talks or if you've taken econ 101 you would understand that a tax cut could jumpstart this economy faster than interest rate cuts. And that is exactly what Bush is trying to accomplish. Furthermore, we are not in a recession, yet. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of gdp decline. We are merely in a slowdown. An economy is not going to grow at 7%/quarter forever, especially given the size of the US. In a perfect world, the &quot;internet bubble&quot; would not have occured, unemployment rates would remain at 4-5% and the economy would grow at a consistent clip. Unfortunately, this was not the case here. I remember all the people arguing that &quot;this is different now.&quot; The business cycle is dead. Obviously not the case now is it? It took the tulip bulb mania in holland to the bursting of Japan's bubble to prove that to make the argument that this &quot;bubble&quot; is different could be very dangerous. The one positive I take from all of this is that productivity has still been increasing. If Americans can remain productive, then now and in the future we can grow our economy at higher rates without having to worry about the prospects of inflation, or even worse stagflation.

 

[Midnight Rambler]

<< Consumer confidence is another factor. Tax cuts wil boost confidence. Besides, it's the right thing to do recession or no. >>

Would $320 a year boost your confidence very much? That will be the average payback this year.

<< The democrats seem to want to block parts of the proposal. Surely they wouldn't put politics over the good of the nation >>

I think their main concern is whether the so-called surpluses that will be used to fund the tax cut will actually pan out. Historically, these surpluses have been overstated.

<< Clinton/Gore/Richardson had no energy policy which helped bring us into this mess with gas and fuel oil prices. >>

Agree partly. But a large reason for the rise in demand of nat. gas has been weather, which cannot be predicted. On the other hand, another contributor is increased use of nat. gas in generating electricity. This should have been planned for.

<< Whose pocket are the Big Energy Companies in again? >>

Bush's, at least according to campaign contributions.

<< In any case Junior George does indeed need to get on top of this issue. And not by opening up the Alaskan preserves >>

Amen!


<< First of all, I don't understand how you could argue that Bush is the reason for this decline. As I recall, Clinton was in office when a slowdown first showed signs of being on the horizon. Like a coach who gets too much credit when his team does well or too much blame when his team performs poorly, a president gets too much credit for a good economy and vice versa. >>

Definitely. I'm not blaming Bush (or Clinton), I'm just saying that a paltry tax cut for the average Joe is not going to be a major economic stimulator, but worse, it will come too late for the business sector.

<< If you listen to Greenspan's talks or if you've taken econ 101 you would understand that a tax cut could jumpstart this economy faster than interest rate cuts. >>

Well. Mr. Greenspan is not fully supportive of the entire plan, and I've had my full share of Econ. classes and real-world business experience, enough to know that putting an extra $320 a year in the average American's pocket is not some panacea. My major point is that the tax cuts that will actually help will come too late.

 

[jjm]

Tom (and others) - There was no growth during the last recession! Recessions by definition are two or more quarters of decline. Read about it the official, commonly held definition of recessions here (NBER). This private, non-partisan firm is the universally recognized &quot;declarer&quot; of recessions.

Looks like hiring is still going okay...

Bloomberg.com

03/09 11:36
U.S. Economy: Services Push Feb. Job Growth Higher (Update2)
By Carlos Torres


Washington, March 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers hired almost twice as many workers as expected in February, as construction, retail, finance and transportation companies stepped up hiring, government figures showed.

Payrolls rose 135,000 last month, the Labor Department said. The increase is more than the 75,000 expected by analysts and follows a 224,000 increase in January. That's the best two-month performance since April and May, when the government was adding workers to help with the 2000 Census count.

The jobless rate held at a 17-month high of 4.2 percent as factory employment fell for the seventh straight month. Still, job growth at construction companies such as Pulte Corp. and staffing firms like Guidance Corp. suggests the overall economy is holding its own even as manufacturing continues to slump.

``There's a lot of churning in the economy right now -- lots of layoffs, but lots of hiring, too,'' said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services, Inc., in Boston.

Construction jobs rose 16,000 in February after jumping 158,000 in January, when workers returned after severe winter weather in the prior two months. At Pulte, the second largest U.S. homebuilder last year, home sales have increased 11 percent this year compared with the same period in 2000.

`Sufficient Workers'

``We have been able to find the people we need to match the increase in demand for homes,'' said James Zeumer, vice president of corporate communications at the Bloomfield Hills, Michigan- based company. ``Employment is still tight, but overall the contractors are still finding sufficient workers to get construction complete.''

U.S. Treasury securities fell after the report, which limited hopes for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve after its next policy meeting later this month. Fed policy makers cut their benchmark overnight lending rate by a percentage point in January to prevent the economy from falling into recession.

Investors are betting on another half-point cut in the rate to 5 percent at the March 20 meeting, judging from trading in federal funds futures contracts. Expectations for additional rate cuts in May and June dimmed after today's jobs report.

The Treasury's 10-year note fell 9/16 point, pushing up its yield 4 basis points to 4.93 percent. Stocks fell on concerns about profit growth and declining rate-cut hopes.

Services

Employment in service industries -- which includes federal, state and local governments -- rose 210,000 after increasing 154,000 a month earlier. Retail employment rose 37,000, the largest gain since November. Business services employment, including personnel-supply companies, rose 24,000 in February. That was the first increase in four months.

Guidance, a national staffing firm in New York, has seen hiring of temporary workers increase about 20 percent while the demand for permanent help has fallen by about 10 percent since the start of the year.

``Psychologically, companies may be a little shy of hiring permanent help but the need for more workers is still there,'' said Robert Guida, chief executive officer of Guidance. ``This leads me to believe the economy remains very strong.''

Employment at financial services firms rose 16,000 in February after increasing 15,000 in January, the report showed.

The total number of jobs added last month was less than January's revised 224,000 gain and last year's monthly average of 152,000. The unemployment rate matched January's level, the highest since September 1999.

Factory Jobs Plunge

Factory employment fell 94,000 in February, after losing 96,000 jobs a month earlier. In the two months alone, manufacturing has lost more jobs than it did all of last year.

One way factories have cut costs has been by reducing the number of hours worked. Manufacturing hours fell to 40.6 in February from 40.9. Overtime fell to 3.8 hours in February -- the lowest since November 1992 -- from 4.1 hours in January. In all industries, hours worked fell to 34.2.

``The economy isn't in a freefall, but the weakness in manufacturing is going to hold down growth in the first quarter,'' said Mark Vitner, an economist at First Union Corp. in Charlotte.

The economy expanded at a 1.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the slowest since a 0.8 percent pace of increase in the second quarter 1995, as consumer demand and business investment in computers and software slowed. Manufacturers have responded in kind.

Cisco Systems Inc., the biggest maker of computer-networking equipment, said today it plans to reduce its payroll by 5 percent because of falling sales. Intel Corp., the No. 1 manufacturer of semiconductors, said yesterday it would cut 5,000 jobs as the slowing economy further erodes demand for personal computers and networking gear.

The government's monthly job growth figures are based on statistics provided by businesses, while the unemployment rate is based on a survey of U.S. households.

Among blacks, the unemployment rate fell to 7.5 percent from 8.4 percent in January. The jobless rate for Hispanics rose to 6.3 percent from 6 percent.

For teenagers, unemployment fell to 13.6 percent from 13.8 percent in January. The jobless rate for women rose to 3.7 percent in February from 3.6 percent.