So, all you "doom and gloomers", when will times be "good" again?

beer

Lifer
Jun 27, 2000
11,169
1
0
So, let's take for a second that the doom and gloom predictions on this forum come true. That is, let's assume oil remains at or around $150 a barrel, triggering 20% inflation abroad, 12-15% in the U.S, interest rates approach 15%, etc. etc - dow falls to 10,000, NASDAQ to 2000, and so, on and so forth. You know - the usual kind of talk around here. I'm excluding the extremist "I need guns and ammo and to start growing my own tomatoes in my fortress in Idaho" crowd because I think that even in the very bearish ATPN forums, most people don't have realistic expectations that a scenario like that would happen.

My own personal set of beliefs is that this won't happen, that equities will recover, oil will slide below $100 by year-end and that food prices will keep going higher, but in reality that food prices squeeze the third world more than the united states and it isn't a huge tax on the economy besides forcing people to eat fewer energy-intensive things like red meat . But let's assume that I'm very wrong.

Economies are ALWAYS cyclical. They have always been, and always will be. This is one of the fundamental tenants of capitalism. The 70s were worse than now; and in the 1940s you couldn't even buy a car or gas at ANY price, so it's absurd to argue that we are in a more precarious position now than then. Since we take this as a given, when will the economy begin to expand at 4%+ again?

 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
16,987
1
0
Originally posted by: beer
Economies are ALWAYS cyclical. They have always been, and always will be. This is one of the fundamental tenants of capitalism. The 70s were worse than now; and in the 1940s you couldn't even buy a car or gas at ANY price, so it's absurd to argue that we are in a more precarious position now than then. Since we take this as a given, when will the economy begin to expand at 4%+ again?

Get your pesky reality out of here. We're on a high right now bashing Bush and blaming the GOP for all our economic woes. It's never been worse. The sky is falling, the world is coming to an end as we know it. Send your donations to Al Gore, please. :laugh:
 

beer

Lifer
Jun 27, 2000
11,169
1
0
Originally posted by: Pabster
Originally posted by: beer
Economies are ALWAYS cyclical. They have always been, and always will be. This is one of the fundamental tenants of capitalism. The 70s were worse than now; and in the 1940s you couldn't even buy a car or gas at ANY price, so it's absurd to argue that we are in a more precarious position now than then. Since we take this as a given, when will the economy begin to expand at 4%+ again?

Get your pesky reality out of here. We're on a high right now bashing Bush and blaming the GOP for all our economic woes. It's never been worse. The sky is falling, the world is coming to an end as we know it. Send your donations to Al Gore, please. :laugh:

Dude, bush has done a terrible job. I'm surprised he even has the 26% approval rating that he has. The simple fact is that investment bankers and analysts are smarter than politicians...and people need to get paid, so money moves from equities to California electricity to housing to commodities to food. The smartest and those able to manipulate will always get their $$ to finance their coke habits and their need to wear $5k suits to fuck size 0 blonde girls. Unfortunately your averaege 9-5 employee made a lot of money when equities were booming and loses a lot when commodities are booming.

Do people really believe that this recession is different than the dozens before it, many more severe than now, that we're somehow going back to a fuedal society and growing your own tomatoes makes more sense than buying them for $2 a pound?
 

Jeff7

Lifer
Jan 4, 2001
41,599
19
81
Originally posted by: Pabster
Get your pesky reality out of here. We're on a high right now bashing Bush and blaming the GOP for all our economic woes. It's never been worse. The sky is falling, the world is coming to an end as we know it. Send your donations to Al Gore, please. :laugh:
And with Democrats back in office, the right will swing around to blame them for all the problems.

Or rather, they don't want. It's all Bill Clinton's fault! Everything is Bill Clinton's fault!
;)


 
D

Deleted member 4644

I think realistically the US will never be *the* dominant global player again (foreseeable future). That is the major difference. The Euro is now almost as important as the dollar, and will be. Oil is no longer a God-given right of the USA for cheap. Nations/multinational corps will no longer buy Boeing or Ford just because the US govt has done them a favor with some "rebels" 20 years ago.

The above is what has changed. How will this impact the daily lives of Americans? Things will probably stop getting "better". That is, I don't think our country will get much worse than it is now, but it will be more like Britain or Ireland or Spain -- countries that have not "improved" much in the last 50 years.

Oh, and I don't think this will change in our life times. I think the "cycle" however will stabilize within the the next 3-5 years.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: LordSegan
I think realistically the US will never be *the* dominant global player again (foreseeable future). That is the major difference. The Euro is now almost as important as the dollar, and will be. Oil is no longer a God-given right of the USA for cheap. Nations/multinational corps will no longer buy Boeing or Ford just because the US govt has done them a favor with some "rebels" 20 years ago.

The above is what has changed. How will this impact the daily lives of Americans? Things will probably stop getting "better". That is, I don't think our country will get much worse than it is now, but it will be more like Britain or Ireland or Spain -- countries that have not "improved" much in the last 50 years.

You're lumping Ford with Boeing? Are you retarded? Boeing is doing f'ing well and when the 787 comes out, especially in light of higher fuel prices, it's going to be a massive success. But, you know, your comparison is so damn valid because shitty gas guzzling, poor quality, SUVs are on par with one of the most advanced commercial aircraft to ever fly, that uses composite materials and advanced efficient engines.

The US is still the dominant single economy in the world, both in terms of production and consumption. Our precision parts and value-additive solutions (IT and otherwise) are still bar-none, above all. Why do you think manufacturing is now surging? Growing at 3% per annum at current levels? In those areas precision parts and high-tech machining are dominating, items which few countries have the knowledge, equipment, or expertise to produce.

Even if the dollar is on parity with the Euro, it says a lot when you have to have the majority of europe into one currency to match the US.

I wouldn't compare us to the three countries you mentioned. First off, none of them have the economic broad base of the US. None of them have massive amounts of untapped natural resources, and none of them are as well rounded. Sure, we're a "mature" economy and won't grow usually at 4%, but even 2.5%-3% is pretty f'ing good.

This is nothing more than a temporary setback, purely cyclical due to our over-spending through credit.

LS, I'd suggest you stick to being "Member, Anandtech Student Bar Association" and not making economic prognostications.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,428
6,088
126
We are doing great. In this supposedly horrible time we're living in we're still growing. America is the land of can do. We have had an excess of speculation. Speculation is great but too much is bad. We got into a situation where the risks were hidden and passed on. Of course I know nothing so take all this with a grain of salt. Sometimes I just get this urge to post something. I guess I'm just different from you.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
We are doing great. In this supposedly horrible time we're living in we're still growing. America is the land of can do. We have had an excess of speculation. Speculation is great but too much is bad. We got into a situation where the risks were hidden and passed on. Of course I know nothing so take all this with a grain of salt. Sometimes I just get this urge to post something. I guess I'm just different from you.

Post one opinion where people said we are "doing great". Polarization is a great way to undermine another's point, except it's a cheap cop-out.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,428
6,088
126
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
We are doing great. In this supposedly horrible time we're living in we're still growing. America is the land of can do. We have had an excess of speculation. Speculation is great but too much is bad. We got into a situation where the risks were hidden and passed on. Of course I know nothing so take all this with a grain of salt. Sometimes I just get this urge to post something. I guess I'm just different from you.

Post one opinion where people said we are "doing great". Polarization is a great way to undermine another's point, except it's a cheap cop-out.

Here is a post where a person says we are doing great:

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
We are doing great. In this supposedly horrible time we're living in we're still growing. America is the land of can do. We have had an excess of speculation. Speculation is great but too much is bad. We got into a situation where the risks were hidden and passed on. Of course I know nothing so take all this with a grain of salt. Sometimes I just get this urge to post something. I guess I'm just different from you.

 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
348
126
I think the global economy is on a long-term realignment at the US's expense. One of my top concerns about that is the associated decline of the political standing of the best of American ideal in human rights.
 

babylon5

Golden Member
Dec 11, 2000
1,363
1
0
Oil won't go back to the low price we are used to. Developing countries like China/India will increase demand for oil.

And USA keep on borrowing. I guess things will still be "good" as long as we don't have to pay back the money we borrow.


 
D

Deleted member 4644

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: LordSegan
I think realistically the US will never be *the* dominant global player again (foreseeable future). That is the major difference. The Euro is now almost as important as the dollar, and will be. Oil is no longer a God-given right of the USA for cheap. Nations/multinational corps will no longer buy Boeing or Ford just because the US govt has done them a favor with some "rebels" 20 years ago.

The above is what has changed. How will this impact the daily lives of Americans? Things will probably stop getting "better". That is, I don't think our country will get much worse than it is now, but it will be more like Britain or Ireland or Spain -- countries that have not "improved" much in the last 50 years.

You're lumping Ford with Boeing? Are you retarded? Boeing is doing f'ing well and when the 787 comes out, especially in light of higher fuel prices, it's going to be a massive success. But, you know, your comparison is so damn valid because shitty gas guzzling, poor quality, SUVs are on par with one of the most advanced commercial aircraft to ever fly, that uses composite materials and advanced efficient engines.

The US is still the dominant single economy in the world, both in terms of production and consumption. Our precision parts and value-additive solutions (IT and otherwise) are still bar-none, above all. Why do you think manufacturing is now surging? Growing at 3% per annum at current levels? In those areas precision parts and high-tech machining are dominating, items which few countries have the knowledge, equipment, or expertise to produce.

Even if the dollar is on parity with the Euro, it says a lot when you have to have the majority of europe into one currency to match the US.

I wouldn't compare us to the three countries you mentioned. First off, none of them have the economic broad base of the US. None of them have massive amounts of untapped natural resources, and none of them are as well rounded. Sure, we're a "mature" economy and won't grow usually at 4%, but even 2.5%-3% is pretty f'ing good.

This is nothing more than a temporary setback, purely cyclical due to our over-spending through credit.

LS, I'd suggest you stick to being "Member, Anandtech Student Bar Association" and not making economic prognostications.



I would love it if you posted some links with your assertions about manufacturing. Also, increased output and revenue does not necessarily equate with more jobs, which I think is as important.

Finally, I am not saying we are like those countries now, but that we are headed in that direction.

Worse things have happened to better people.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
72,428
6,088
126
Originally posted by: Craig234
I think the global economy is on a long-term realignment at the US's expense. One of my top concerns about that is the associated decline of the political standing of the best of American ideal in human rights.

People are neither productive nor creative if they have no rights.

When oppression exists even the bird dies in the nest. A saying
 

XZeroII

Lifer
Jun 30, 2001
12,572
0
0
The moment that a democrat is elected as president, every problem in the world will be solved... It will rain chocolate that doesn't make you fat or give you diabetes. Rivers will swell with gold nuggets. The environment will instantly become so much better. People will fart smells that remind you of roses.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: XZeroII
The moment that a democrat is elected as president, every problem in the world will be solved... It will rain chocolate that doesn't make you fat or give you diabetes. Rivers will swell with gold nuggets. The environment will instantly become so much better. People will fart smells that remind you of roses.

Well, the opposite has come true with the Repuglicans of the last 7 years.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
Originally posted by: XZeroII
The moment that a democrat is elected as president, every problem in the world will be solved... It will rain chocolate that doesn't make you fat or give you diabetes. Rivers will swell with gold nuggets. The environment will instantly become so much better. People will fart smells that remind you of roses.

Not roses...but rather honeysuckle. Get it right you fool!

I tend to think that this is cyclical....but things do change. For instance, the last recovery (2003) was the first in US history that manufacturing/industrial employement actually shrunk, thus breaking one cycle. All cycles don't repeat...but that does not mean that the US won't get it's head on straight and continue forward....or at least I really hope it will.
 

SleepWalkerX

Platinum Member
Jun 29, 2004
2,649
0
0
Originally posted by: beer
Economies are ALWAYS cyclical. They have always been, and always will be. This is one of the fundamental tenants of capitalism.

What makes it cyclical? Why?
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Originally posted by: SleepWalkerX
Originally posted by: beer
Economies are ALWAYS cyclical. They have always been, and always will be. This is one of the fundamental tenants of capitalism.

What makes it cyclical? Why?
Greed.

Originally posted by: beer
So, all you "doom and gloomers", when will times be "good" again?
January 21st, 2009.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Originally posted by: SleepWalkerX
Originally posted by: jpeyton
Originally posted by: SleepWalkerX
Originally posted by: beer
Economies are ALWAYS cyclical. They have always been, and always will be. This is one of the fundamental tenants of capitalism.

What makes it cyclical? Why?
Greed.

How does greed cause economic cycles?
Look at the housing boom/bust cycle.

When prices were skyrocketing:

Builders flooded the market with new homes.

Lenders flooded the market with easy loans.

Buyers flocked to the market to snatch up any available property.

By the time the market realized that it's excesses couldn't be maintained, it was too late.

Too many houses available on an over-saturated market.

Too many loans turned bad when home values corrected to more realistic levels.

Buyers selling, and sellers not buying, adding fuel to the fire.

Slow, sustainable growth was sacrificed for a quick buck.
 

KIRBYEE

Banned
Mar 10, 2007
188
0
0
Originally posted by: Deleted member 4644
The above is what has changed. How will this impact the daily lives of Americans? Things will probably stop getting "better". That is, I don't think our country will get much worse than it is now, but it will be more like Britain or Ireland or Spain -- countries that have not "improved" much in the last 50 years.

The Celtic Tiger

Ireland has changed alot.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
348
126
Originally posted by: babylon5
Oil won't go back to the low price we are used to. Developing countries like China/India will increase demand for oil.

And USA keep on borrowing. I guess things will still be "good" as long as we don't have to pay back the money we borrow.

I don't see much alternative to our eventually having high inflation to make paying it back easier, and so I'm interested in how to US inflation-proof investments...