Smug guy: "Blowing in NES carts never did anything"

[Ichinisan]

For clarity, that's:

GAME TITLE          STALE BLOWN
------------------- ----- -----
Castlevania               pass 
The Legend of Zelda       pass 
Super Mario Bros.   pass  pass 
Metroid             pass  pass 
Golf                           
Dragon Warrior      pass  pass 
Gyromite                       
Batman              pass  pass 
Duck Hunt           pass  pass 
Kid Icarus                pass 
Dr. Mario                      
Tetris              pass  pass 
Faxandu             pass  pass 
Little Nemo               pass 
Spy Hunter          pass  pass 
Track & Field II          pass 
Mickey Mousecapade             
Top Gun                   pass 
Galaga                    pass 
Ghosts 'N Goblins              
Super Off-Road                 
Blades of Steel           pass 
Rygar                     pass 
WWF Wrestlemania    pass

Remove pass/pass and fail/fail results. An interesting trend appears:

GAME TITLE          STALE BLOWN
------------------- ----- -----
Castlevania               pass 
The Legend of Zelda       pass 
Kid Icarus                pass 
Little Nemo               pass 
Track & Field II          pass 
Top Gun                   pass 
Galaga                    pass 
Blades of Steel           pass 
Rygar                     pass 
WWF Wrestlemania    pass

Fascinating. :hmm:

GAME TITLE          STALE BLOWN
------------------- ----- -----
Super Mario Bros.   pass  pass 
Metroid             pass  pass 
Golf                           
Dragon Warrior      pass  pass 
Gyromite                       
Batman              pass  pass 
Duck Hunt           pass  pass 
Dr. Mario                      
Tetris              pass  pass 
Faxandu             pass  pass 
Spy Hunter          pass  pass 
Mickey Mousecapade             
Ghosts 'N Goblins              
Super Off-Road

Video coming soon.

 

[HeXen]

This is why I like roms and emulators.

 

[Ichinisan]

This is why I like roms and emulators.

You're missing out on the experience of blowing in your cartridges!

I absolutely love the experience.

• Super Mario Bros. 3
• Interlaced CRT television
• Composite AV connection
• NES Advantage joystick

:awe:

 

[HeXen]

You're missing out on the experience of blowing in your cartridges!

I absolutely love the experience.

• Super Mario Bros. 3
• AV connection
• CRT television
• NES Advantage joystick

Oh no...I can blow on my hard drives just the same and I do still run a wire across the floor now and then so I can trip over it when I'm really feeling nostalgic.:sneaky:

 

[CZroe]

No actually he is right. Unless for some reason you kept all your carts exposed side up to collect dust, there is no way any amount of dust that could effect the connection could get into the slot. It just didn't happen. What DID happen was the metal used on those ancient things oxidized very easily and could require a few insertions to scrape the surface and find a connection. You guys thought blowing into it was the trick when in fact just unplugging it and plugging it back in was all that was needed.

Then how do you explain these results from a test where neither the stale nor the blown cart were ever re-inserted?!

Sounds like your conclusion was based on... confirmation bias. You accepted incorrect claims of confirmation bias with no proof and ran with it, ignoring and dismissing evidence to the contrary (actual experience and testing). You did this even without performing tests or seeing the results of any which would point to your pre-ordained conclusion. You just heard a well-produced claim that it was backed with no evidence or reasoning and accepted it. This, RIGHT HERE, is a lesson in confirmation bias.

 

[smackababy]

Then how do you explain these results from a test where neither the stale nor the blown cart were ever re-inserted?!

Sounds like your conclusion was based on... confirmation bias. You accepted incorrect claims of confirmation bias with no proof and ran with it, ignoring and dismissing evidence to the contrary (actual experience and testing). You did this even without performing tests or seeing the results of any which would point to your pre-ordained conclusion. You just heard a well-produced claim that it was backed with no evidence or reasoning and accepted it. This, RIGHT HERE, is a lesson in confirmation bias.

I flipped a couple different quarters 20 times after praying about them. They always landed on tails. Clearly, praying about quarters makes them land on tails more than heads, right?

Do you really not see the problem with your testing? Not only are you testing under circumstances with multiple variables changing, the amount of data you're testing is insignificant. And, with each test, the conditions of the NES are becoming worse.

If you had say 10,000 brand new, tested once NES consoles and 10,000 brand new, test once carts; allowed said consoles and carts to persist in the exact same conditions for some amount of time (say, a week); and then proceeded to test them all, half blowing half not blowing. I might accept your test and conclusion that blowing has some positive effect on getting an NES to make well enough contact to start (and subsequently run) the game.

 

[CZroe]

...

Correct!

One last chance to recant in light of the evidence!

Question: what made you so sure that you had to support an incorrect and untested assertion without elaborating in the first place?

It did nothing but ruin your carts. Your "I did this once and it worked!" tests are nothing. The act of blowing is simply a long term harmful placebo.

No placebo here. Pass or Fail, no retest. Raw statistics. It clearly did SOMETHING to improve the immediate success rate. No argument that it is bad for the contacts long-term.

I remember seeing an article on this a couple years ago. They said that the short term apparent improvements were due to simply taking another shot at getting good contact by removing and reinserting the cartridge, and/or by improved electrical conductivity on the cartridge contacts from the moisture from your breath...

I'd LOVE to see that article, considering that the video that started this conversation did not list any data, statistics, or sources. I don't believe there ever was a test to conclude that one else it would be attached to other assertions of confirmation bias.

Good thing we eliminated the effect of removing and reinserting. In our latest test we never "took another shot" and yet it still showed a drastically measurable improvement in the success rate for games that were blown in versus games which weren't.

Here is something you aren't going to like: prove it was the act of blowing and not the reinsertion that had the effect.

Done and done. Thoroughly enjoyed it too, and I'm not just saying that because I like to contradict, though I do like being right in the face of this misleading video that started this conversation. No single game was inserted twice and yet the games which were blown in have a drastically higher success rate that is undeniably visible in the statistics.

Here is another thing I'd like you to explain: if the humidity from your breath is what is allowing the better contact, why then when the humidity evaporates does the game not glitch, similar to how games with bad contact start up?

Theories include surface tension preventing exposure for evaporation or even chemical changes that ensure a good connection until exposed to the air. Even if it did glitch as soon as it dried days, hours, minutes or seconds later, the act of blowing still has a measurable impact on the success rate for booting the game pak and the claim that it doesn't is debunked.

 

[master_shake_]

For clarity, that's:

GAME TITLE          STALE BLOWN
------------------- ----- -----
Castlevania               pass 
The Legend of Zelda       pass 
Super Mario Bros.   pass  pass 
Metroid             pass  pass 
Golf                           
Dragon Warrior      pass  pass 
Gyromite                       
Batman              pass  pass 
Duck Hunt           pass  pass 
Kid Icarus                pass 
Dr. Mario                      
Tetris              pass  pass 
Faxandu             pass  pass 
Little Nemo               pass 
Spy Hunter          pass  pass 
Track & Field II          pass 
Mickey Mousecapade             
Top Gun                   pass 
Galaga                    pass 
Ghosts 'N Goblins              
Super Off-Road                 
Blades of Steel           pass 
Rygar                     pass 
WWF Wrestlemania    pass

Remove pass/pass and fail/fail results. An interesting trend appears:

GAME TITLE          STALE BLOWN
------------------- ----- -----
Castlevania               pass 
The Legend of Zelda       pass 
Kid Icarus                pass 
Little Nemo               pass 
Track & Field II          pass 
Top Gun                   pass 
Galaga                    pass 
Blades of Steel           pass 
Rygar                     pass 
WWF Wrestlemania    pass

Fascinating. :hmm:

GAME TITLE          STALE BLOWN
------------------- ----- -----
Super Mario Bros.   pass  pass 
Metroid             pass  pass 
Golf                           
Dragon Warrior      pass  pass 
Gyromite                       
Batman              pass  pass 
Duck Hunt           pass  pass 
Dr. Mario                      
Tetris              pass  pass 
Faxandu             pass  pass 
Spy Hunter          pass  pass 
Mickey Mousecapade             
Ghosts 'N Goblins              
Super Off-Road

Video coming soon.

should have tried the game twice stale take away the margin of error, a reseat could have fixed it.

 

[Ichinisan]

should have tried the game twice stale take away the margin of error, a reseat could have fixed it.

That would have corrupted the test. Each cartridge was inserted only once.

If it's not obvious, I have duplicate copies of many games and that's what made this test possible.

None were cleaned before hand. None were inspected. My brother made 2 stacks and I decided which one would be the blow stack. With no funny business, I tested each cartridge one time each. I took one game from the stale stack, inserted it fully, tested it, and removed it. Then I grabbed the same title from the blow stack, gave it a good blow, inserted it fully, tested it, and removed it.

...then moved on to the next title.

 

[CZroe]

I flipped a couple different quarters 20 times after praying about them. They always landed on tails. Clearly, praying about quarters makes them land on tails more than heads, right?

Do you really not see the problem with your testing? Not only are you testing under circumstances with multiple variables changing, the amount of data you're testing is insignificant. And, with each test, the conditions of the NES are becoming worse.

If you had say 10,000 brand new, tested once NES consoles and 10,000 brand new, test once carts; allowed said consoles and carts to persist in the exact same conditions for some amount of time (say, a week); and then proceeded to test them all, half blowing half not blowing. I might accept your test and conclusion that blowing has some positive effect on getting an NES to make well enough contact to start (and subsequently run) the game.

That's funny, actually. You clearly don't have an understanding of statistics.

Uncontrollable variables are statistically reduced by sample size. That's the whole point. The problem without your quarter/prayer analogy is that it can't be consistently reproduced as the sample size is increased or the test is repeated where this absolutely can be. Nothing has been produced in support of the "confirmation bias" assertion TO repeat in the first place. What I have given you is the first of MANY test which will consistently trend toward blowing having an effect. If blowing did not have an effect then it would trend slightly one way AND the other as tests are repeated. Some tests would show one result, others would show another, and the more tests you make the closer you would get to having no trend either way (50/50).

Having 10,000 new consoles and 10,000 "test once" carts would TAINT the results because the whole assertion is that it didn't improve real world results with problematic used, dirty, worn, etc consoles and cartridges. Also, the wear during testing affects the success of BOTH carts which were blown on and carts which were not so results remain statistically relevant. It's like testing multiple NES consoles at various stages of wear.

Once again, we are not testing long-term effects. No one is disputing that it made things worse over time. We are disputing the assertion that the only perceived effect was confirmation bias. We didn't even have to limit ourselves to one attempt (users certainly didn't) but it eliminates reseating as a variable for eventual success to focus on the impact of blowing alone. We could just as easily set a retry limit of 100 attempts per cartridge and show that statistically more attempts are required to successfully boot a stale cart versus a blown one and that more of the stale ones hit the retry limit. Both will show an increased chance of success that strongly correlates with blowing and not simply re-seating. We have not cleaned nor blown in the NES at all.

Also, the changes we have made (10NES CIC lock-out disable, ongoing wear through testing, etc) would de-emphasize the effect of blowing. To see the effect so clearly anyway speaks volumes. Don't dismiss the data without looking for relevance. I don't mean to politicize in this forum, but I see people doing the exact same thing happening in relation to current news events (people ignoring evidence and coming to a conclusion with no testable evidence in the face of mountains of contradictory evidence). Don't be like them.

 

[CZroe]

should have tried the game twice stale take away the margin of error, a reseat could have fixed it.

Of course a reseat could have fixed it, but that is exactly the effect we want to remove to prove that blowing has an effect beyond simply reseating.

Reseating one set would have made made it so that the results are not comparable. We proved that blowing alone DOES increase the chances.

It is possible to show this even with reseating by counting the number of attempts it requires to get it working, but some require a truly ludicrous number of attempts without blowing and may never work that way. That's how we wore out the power button a few days ago (tested THOUSANDS of times and found many stale games would not work after 50+ attempts while it never took more than three or four attempt to get a game to work by blowing in it. I am well aware that many dirty Nintedo consoles had a ton of trouble with or without blowing and users would have to give up even with blowing, but that does not mean blowing doesn't have an effect on the success rate.

 

[Subyman]

should have tried the game twice stale take away the margin of error, a reseat could have fixed it.

IMO, he should try reseating and trying about 10 times and then give the blow only one or two tries after reseating before moving to the next.

 

[Ichinisan]

IMO, he should try reseating and trying about 10 times and then give the blow only one or two tries after reseating before moving to the next.

That's the easiest type of test and I had already done it lots of times on video.

[edit]
Here's another biased confirmation for you:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=KV4B8oJ_H5w

[2014-11-24 0950]
First 2 games I tested today...

Tried TMNT2 10 times without blowing and it failed every time.

Gave the cart a good blow and it worked.

Tried SMB3 I-don't-know-how-many-times. Finally blew in it half-heartedly and it didn't work.

Gave it a good blow and it finally worked.

I didn't do a whole lot of tweaking the cartridge after insertion because this is only meant to show if blowing has any effect at all. It does.

Recorded that first video when I acquired SMB3 at the flea market and that is the first time I ever inserted it into my NES.

 

[Ichinisan]

Shame on people for not questioning what they read when there's no evidence or even claims the authors actually tested anything.

Anyway, my brother threw his pants on at 3:00 AM sometime in January to dispel this same bit of misinformation. The shameful mentalfloss article was cited once again by John Connor in an ATOT thread. So this was our response:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8sxacNnGD8

 

[smackababy]

How is this still a thread... blowing on connectors will have no effect on them.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I think that there are aftermarket slots for the NES that are gold plated that resolve the issue.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Used to just clean it with alcohol.

 

[Ichinisan]

How is this still a thread... blowing on connectors will have no effect on them.

You still blindly believe people's untested assertions over the people who have actually put forth the effort to test? Either you're a liar, a troll, or stupid. Which is it?

Are you ignoring the test that involved 2 stacks of games?

Remove pass/pass and fail/fail results. An interesting trend appears:

GAME TITLE          STALE BLOWN
------------------- ----- -----
Castlevania               pass
The Legend of Zelda       pass
Kid Icarus                pass
Little Nemo               pass
Track & Field II          pass
Top Gun                   pass
Galaga                    pass
Blades of Steel           pass
Rygar                     pass
WWF Wrestlemania    pass

If you're going to challenge my tested conclusion, you'll have to provide more than someone's baseless, untested assumption/assertion. Can you? Hint: No

 

[Ichinisan]

Used to just clean it with alcohol.

Ditto. The effectiveness was limited in certain conditions (temperature + humidity + level of wear in the system's connector).

 

[KentState]

Used to just clean it with alcohol.

I actually that had the cleaning kit that was basically apply alcohol using a fake cartridge.

 

[smackababy]

You still blindly believe people's untested assertions over the people who have actually put forth the effort to test? Either you're a liar, a troll, or stupid. Which is it?

Are you ignoring the test that involved 2 stacks of games?

Remove pass/pass and fail/fail results. An interesting trend appears:

GAME TITLE          STALE BLOWN
------------------- ----- -----
Castlevania               pass
The Legend of Zelda       pass
Kid Icarus                pass
Little Nemo               pass
Track & Field II          pass
Top Gun                   pass
Galaga                    pass
Blades of Steel           pass
Rygar                     pass
WWF Wrestlemania    pass

If you're going to challenge my tested conclusion, you'll have to provide more than someone's baseless, untested assumption/assertion. Can you? Hint: No

Flaw number 1: You have no real control group. You are using two separate sets for tests, ignoring any possible differences in any variables that may exist between the two.
Flaw number 2: You aren't eliminating ALL variables (and you can't, because reseating the cart is changing numerous variables, especially if done by hand).
Flaw number 3: You're claiming because a very insignificant amount of amount of data as proof of some hypothesis
Flaw number 4: You're "if it works, it's a pass immediately" is confirmation bias at best.

Do the test with each cart a hundred times each: 50 without blowing once. 50 with blowing each time. Those results MAY be more consistent, ignoring any possible degradation of the contacts via constant loading and unloading, especially with a front loading NES.

Your entire test and be summed up as to me saying "licking one side of a coin makes it more likely to land on the side licked", doing the test 20 times with 20 different coins and counting "pass" as first tries. That proves absolutely nothing and is not valid scientific data. I don't go around making assertions that it is right.

 

[master_shake_]

We're the connections in an original nes bare copper?

 

[Ichinisan]

Flaw number 1: You have no real control group. You are using two separate sets for tests, ignoring any possible differences in any variables that may exist between the two.
Flaw number 2: You aren't eliminating ALL variables (and you can't, because reseating the cart is changing numerous variables, especially if done by hand).
Flaw number 3: You're claiming because a very insignificant amount of amount of data as proof of some hypothesis
Flaw number 4: You're "if it works, it's a pass immediately" is confirmation bias at best.

Do the test with each cart a hundred times each: 50 without blowing once. 50 with blowing each time. Those results MAY be more consistent, ignoring any possible degradation of the contacts via constant loading and unloading, especially with a front loading NES.

Your entire test and be summed up as to me saying "licking one side of a coin makes it more likely to land on the side licked", doing the test 20 times with 20 different coins and counting "pass" as first tries. That proves absolutely nothing and is not valid scientific data. I don't go around making assertions that it is right.

I can't wait to read this.

 

[Ichinisan]

The most important thing: This is repeatable and you will always get these results. Yes. We have repeated the test with even more titles and the result is always the same.

Now YOU are trying to prove the assertion that blowing does nothing with NO TESTING WHATSOEVER!

Speaking of "bias," why is it OK to claim blowing does nothing while you have no evidence whatsoever to support that claim?

 

[Ichinisan]

I can't wait to do some more testing when I get home tonight. I can't wait!

Front loader NES for sure. How about some top-loader NES and SNES for good measure?