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silver- Is this the time to sell?

About 2 weeks ago silver hit $41/oz then dropped to $40/oz. I thought that drop was the signal that it was peaking. It thought it was the time to sell, but I held out until it hit $42/oz. I was happy. For one day. Then a silver mine at the largest US silver producer collapsed trapping a worker. Then silver hit $44, $46, $48,...

I am no longer happy with my decision to sell. There went 15% profit in a few days.
 
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dullard said:
About 10 days ago silver hit $41/oz then dropped to $40/oz. I thought that drop was the signal that it was peaking. It thought it was the time to sell, but I held out until it hit $42/oz. I was happy. For one day. Then silver hit $44, $46, $48,...

I am no longer happy with my decision to sell. There went 15% profit in a few days.
Click to expand...
Since the world was ending, bought at 200 rounds at $18, 2 years(?) ago. Wife won't let me sell now.

The world is still ending, right?
 
Hang on to it. In a couple on months you'll need it to buy bread as the dollar will be worthless.
 
oldsmoboat said:
Hang on to it. In a couple on months you'll need it to buy bread as the dollar will be worthless.
Click to expand...
We'll come back and see how good your prediction is. Lets just define things a bit.

1) I'll assume that pepperbags has just 1 oz of silver and nothing else to his name. His starting point is just $48 in that case.

2) I'll assume a couple of months means June 29, 2011.

So, according to you, on roughly that date, a loaf of bread will be more than $48.
 
pepperbegs said:
Hi,

I've got a bit of silver that I bought more than 10 years ago. Should I sell up or wait until after the zombies attack?
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure silver will only be useful currency if there is a werewolf outbreak. Pretty sure it will be worthless if the zombies take over
 
There are a couple things to take note of.

Silver is historically about 1/16th of the value of gold, so it it extremely undervalued using that metric. To balance gold would have to drop in half, or silver would need to double. Google "buy silver crash jp morgan" and if that is true, it could explain why silver is undervalued right now.

As oldsmoboat mentioned, inflation could make silver much more valuable. QE2 is about to run out and inflation could take off. It seems like the Fed is actually pushing inflation so that home values level off to 3 times the median household income again without dropping in price. Seems stupid, but what do I know? If you think inflation, moderate to excessive, will set in, then wait to sell.
 
dullard said:
About 2 weeks ago silver hit $41/oz then dropped to $40/oz. I thought that drop was the signal that it was peaking. It thought it was the time to sell, but I held out until it hit $42/oz. I was happy. For one day. Then a silver mine at the largest US silver producer collapsed trapping a worker. Then silver hit $44, $46, $48,...

I am no longer happy with my decision to sell. There went 15% profit in a few days.
Click to expand...

Wtf does information unavailable at the time of the decision have to do with how you feel about the decision? Decision quality unaffected, reason to be unhappy not found.
 
dullard said:
We'll come back and see how good your prediction is. Lets just define things a bit.

1) I'll assume that pepperbags has just 1 oz of silver and nothing else to his name. His starting point is just $48 in that case.

2) I'll assume a couple of months means June 29, 2011.

So, according to you, on roughly that date, a loaf of bread will be more than $48.
Click to expand...
No. I am saying no one will accept dollars bills. They will want gold or silver.
 
Juked07 said:
Wtf does information unavailable at the time of the decision have to do with how you feel about the decision? Decision quality unaffected, reason to be unhappy not found.
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in italian we call it "rosicare".
Literally it means to gnaw.
He's just beating himself on something out of his control.
 
HendrixFan said:
There are a couple things to take note of.

Silver is historically about 1/16th of the value of gold, so it it extremely undervalued using that metric. To balance gold would have to drop in half, or silver would need to double. Google "buy silver crash jp morgan" and if that is true, it could explain why silver is undervalued right now.

As oldsmoboat mentioned, inflation could make silver much more valuable. QE2 is about to run out and inflation could take off. It seems like the Fed is actually pushing inflation so that home values level off to 3 times the median household income again without dropping in price. Seems stupid, but what do I know? If you think inflation, moderate to excessive, will set in, then wait to sell.
Click to expand...

useless ratio is useless
 
Yea I am selling now.

I have some coins but the silver is worth more than the coins now. I just whonder if the coins will go up by all the people melting them?
 
JS80 said:
useless ratio is useless
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Gold as something of value is useless. But it does have value for some reason.

Price swings happen and the norm is 1/16th of the value. Why? Who knows or cares. Chances are it will regress to the mean, as usual.
 
HendrixFan said:
Gold as something of value is useless. But it does have value for some reason.

Price swings happen and the norm is 1/16th of the value. Why? Who knows or cares. Chances are it will regress to the mean, as usual.
Click to expand...

I probably should have used the word arbitrary instead of useless.
 
JS80 said:
useless ratio is useless
Click to expand...
1) As you said, a useless ratio useless. It doesn't say if gold will go up or silver will go down to meet that ratio. Or both. Or gold goes up fast and silver goes up slow. Or gold goes down slow and silver goes down fast. It doesn't help you at all with anything.

2) Since it isn't currently 1/16, that alone proves that a 1/16 ratio is not something that you can ever plan on ever happening.

3) The 1/16 number has not occured in modern history (other than a very temporary blip around 1980): http://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html#36_year_gold_price The ratio is closer to 1/60 (look at the long term chart at the end). Meaning if gold stays at $1550, then silver would drop to $26. And if gold backs off of its highs, then silver would drop even more if we were to trust this somehow magical ratio.
 
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Juked07 said:
Wtf does information unavailable at the time of the decision have to do with how you feel about the decision? Decision quality unaffected, reason to be unhappy not found.
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Looking back may not be a worthwhile exercise, but it does still make you feel good or bad about the decision.
 
pepperbegs said:
Hi,

I've got a bit of silver that I bought more than 10 years ago. Should I sell up or wait until after the zombies attack?
Click to expand...
At least temporarilly, and a few days late, we can say yes. Yes it was the time to sell. Silver has dropped 8% since you asked.

I personally dabble in silver through AGQ (double long) and ZSL (double short). Doubles the profit (or loss). They are both moving about 16% today. But I'm too cautious to put much money in them.
 
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HendrixFan said:
There are a couple things to take note of.

Silver is historically about 1/16th of the value of gold, so it it extremely undervalued using that metric. To balance gold would have to drop in half, or silver would need to double. Google "buy silver crash jp morgan" and if that is true, it could explain why silver is undervalued right now.

As oldsmoboat mentioned, inflation could make silver much more valuable. QE2 is about to run out and inflation could take off. It seems like the Fed is actually pushing inflation so that home values level off to 3 times the median household income again without dropping in price. Seems stupid, but what do I know? If you think inflation, moderate to excessive, will set in, then wait to sell.
Click to expand...

The end of QE2 wouldn't be an inflationary event, it would be deflationary. All other things being isolated, it would mean Treasury demand goes up from increased rates, this would suck liquidity from other areas, namely stocks and bonds, which would go into treasuries. This would depress stock prices and raise bond rates which would be passed to consumers in the form of higher interest rates. This would decrease the amount of free cash, leading to a deflationary situation.

Another scenario is that other buyers go into USTs after the end of QE2 resulting in no change to UST rates. The only scenario that would result in inflation is if unemployment dropped dramatically, increasing the velocity of money, resulting in economic expansion and wage increases.

The most likely scenario is that the end of QE2 will drain liquidity from commodity futures and drop the price of all commodities as current flow investments go into a more stable asset class.

The 1:16 ratio has already been debunked.

A parabolic bubble is a parabolic bubble. Silver is going to go down eventually, who knows when, but it will settle far lower than $50.

The whole "crash JPM" is a silly analysis created by tin foil hat guys. There is no solid evidence JPM has a huge net short position in, not to mention you can't even see if they have a long position offsetting the shorts they apparently have (creating a net neutral portfolio, or even net long).

But then again, everything you read on the internet is true.
 
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