No way to know - more than two years out is too far to predict.
I think the 'current course' is probably a lot less important than people think though as I think most elections turn on more macro level things. For example look at Bill Clinton in 1994 - he was considered left for dead. In 1996 he blew Bob Dole out so badly the Onion was making jokes about Dole asking for a recount before the election even happened. In 1991 GHWB appeared invincible and he would cruise to re-election and we all know how that went. You could argue Clinton's success was due to some sort of course correction but I don't think you could for GHWB - the economy just went south on him.
That's not to say something similar would happen here, it's just to show how much can change in two years or even less. Because of this I think politicians should focus less on trying to game what the electorate will like and focus on doing what they think is best. Sadly with Manchin and Sinema right now what Democrats can do is pretty limited.
I don't think people pay enough attention for this to be very effective. I think the Democrats' best bet is to moderate on cultural issues and double down on taxing the rich. Swing voters are wary of things like expanded trans rights but love taxing rich people. That's probably the best way to win them over.
I thank you for presenting your opinion. I do agree it makes a lot of sense. The reason I ask is that in my opinion the frustration over inaction and with the Democrats in the presumptive majority, not much of significance is getting passed and that actually all of the political victories are going to conservatives via the Senate blocking anything useful and the Supreme court taking us back to the religious Dark Ages. And while it is two years from the election the frustration is real and here today. If that does not change I think that the feelings people are having today, their frustrations will only magnify and be expressed in two years just like they are being expressed today.
So what I am wondering is what will the election look like tomorrow if things stay the same. I believe that the American people are driven not by reason but by a sense of entitlement at a pretty much two year old level and that they will gladly cut their noses off to spite their faces. My personal belief is that this kind of behavior, almost impossible to deal with, certainly never will be without first being identified.
For me a political campaign in America today needs to exactly what we know scientifically about how to deal with denial.
Denial is all about being motivated not so see the true because of the unconscious implications truth has for ones sense of self worth. In shout, the assumption is that truth will tell us that we feel worthless and nothing positive can penetrate that so long as that process isn't understood psychologically and only then addressed as the lie it is.
www.politico.com
Facebook
Twitter