Should AMD be worried in 2006

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ahock

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Nov 29, 2004
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Hey guys I want your honest opinion here. Do you think Intel can pull off this coming year? We know that AMD X2 dual core and Opteron is a big winner. Even at their single core although Intel still manages to capture some of their stronghold in video encoding stuff but at Dual Core, they havn't won any single test.

Are we going to expect something on intel this 2006? Or are we to expect more on AMD?

I have read Bensley benchmarks and although they are still at engineering samples but so far comments are pretty impressive and fast. And the way I see it its not the Dempsey that makes it good but the whole platform. Are we to expect something on Dempsey which is only a die shrink of Smithfield? Unless Intel made new instructions sets or did any architectural enhancements butI dont think this has anything on it. Now if Bensley is good as a whole even if it uses Dempsey, will there be a reason for AMD to somehow fear? We also now for a fact that woodcrest is going to be released in 2006 and Dempsey is just a stop gap product. I'm only speaking on server since we know that Presler wont steal anything unless for price. One gppd thing for Presler though is their virtualization technology.
 
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AMDrulZ

Member
Jul 9, 2005
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I don't think AMD will have anything to fear in 2006 the K8 has been a huge success..... And AMD is supposed to have Pacifica Vertuilization technology out around the same time....... or not so long after..... which is supposed to better than the intel option......
 
A

ahock

Member
Nov 29, 2004
165
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Aside from DDR2 and Pacifica? what are the things we need to expect? Basically, in my opinion I dont expect much on Intel with Presler or Dempsey. Yes there will be an improvement but I dont think it will surpass AMD X2 or opteron. My point is for Bensley we are already seeing some performance improvement though this is just an initial review..... When Woodcrest arrive, it will still give another push. What are the things AMD has to offer to counter this?

The only thing Intel lacks is I guess in the 4P space.
 
A

AkumaX

Lifer
Apr 20, 2000
12,645
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bah, intel might have something with conroe and might finally compete with merom/woodcrest
 
Hacp

Hacp

Lifer
Jun 8, 2005
13,923
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Basically, expect more of the same, with a possible shift to dual core and maybe more bandwith with the HTT bus possibly?

65NM and possibly 3.0GHZ dual core should last AMD through the enitre year. Expect OCing to be bleak though :(.
 
DrMrLordX

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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Originally posted by: AkumaX
bah, intel might have something with conroe and might finally compete with merom/woodcrest
Click to expand...


Isn't Conroe delayed until 2007?
 
A

ahock

Member
Nov 29, 2004
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they have pretty good edge right now.... I agree. But Bensley is no push over...... It seems for Bensley, Intel will lead in this front... And once Bensley will be released what are the things or what are we to expect from AMD? I heard they will be releasing DDR2 and Pacifica sometime second half in 2006 but that is also woodcrest will be released right?....

Basically when I saw the review of engineering samples of Bensley I'm not impressed with dempsey since we know this is just shrink smithfield.... But platform as a whole I think makes the difference......
 
F

Furen

Golden Member
Oct 21, 2004
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Bensley runs on quad-channel DDR2 533 with dual-buses, so of course it helps out the bandwidth-starved Netburst CPUs. DDR2 should help out dual-core Opterons when it actually comes out (I kind of expect AMD to jump to FB directly on the server side and, of course, add lots of HT links for the "up to 32 sockets" thing they've been hyping up), as will the die-shrink that we're supposed to be during the second half of the year.

On the Socket M2 vs. Conroe side: I wonder how much of a benefit Conroe will get from all the extra FSB bandwidth (FSB1333 is what I've heard, which will probably mean that these things will NEVER be bandwidth starved) since Pentium Ms run pretty efficiently even on a much lower FSB. Aside from that, Conroe looks to be a wider P6 with decoupled execution and decoding units which, basically, makes it into a 4-issue K7 (fancy that) with a 14-stage basic integer pipeline. So whether or not Intel beats AMD's performance next year depends on three things (in my opinion): Conroe's clock speed (I'd expect it to hit around 3.5GHz and AMD may be dangerously close to that by the time these things come out), the usefulness of having a 4-issue width (I wouldn't expect much from this but I'll wait and see) and the ability of Intel's prefetching techs to cope with the superiority that the integrated memory controller gives K8s (the biggest unknown here is Intel's "Memory disambiguation", which may help out a lot or may just trash FSB bandwidth and the cache, but that shouldn't be a problem considering that these things will run on a fast FSB with 4MB of cache).
 
TraumaRN

TraumaRN

Diamond Member
Jun 5, 2005
6,893
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Well if you look at how things stand right now, Intel has some catching up to do that is for sure...
http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-10442_7-6389077-1.html?tag=lnav

I think it's safe to say Intel has its work cut out for them.

However I'm interested to see how AMD is going to implement DDR2, I just get the feeling that they are hiding an ace up there sleeve with this....at least compared to Intel we've heard practically ZIP about M2 and 1207....and generally when companies are that quiet they're usually working on something new.
 
V

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
0
0
Originally posted by: ahock
Hey guys I want your honest opinion here. Do you think Intel can pull off this coming year? We know that AMD X2 dual core and Opteron is a big winner. Even at their single core although Intel still manages to capture some of their stronghold in video encoding stuff but at Dual Core, they havn't won any single test.

Are we going to expect something on intel this 2006? Or are we to expect more on AMD?

I have read Bensley benchmarks and although they are still at engineering samples but so far comments are pretty impressive and fast. And the way I see it its not the Dempsey that makes it good but the whole platform. Are we to expect something on Dempsey which is only a die shrink of Smithfield? Unless Intel made new instructions sets or did any architectural enhancements butI dont think this has anything on it. Now if Bensley is good as a whole even if it uses Dempsey, will there be a reason for AMD to somehow fear? We also now for a fact that woodcrest is going to be released in 2006 and Dempsey is just a stop gap product. I'm only speaking on server since we know that Presler wont steal anything unless for price. One gppd thing for Presler though is their virtualization technology.
Click to expand...

Well, in order...

Yup, I think AMD will have a monster year in 2006. Almost certainly there best ever...
If we look at it by sector:
Mobile:
Intel has Yonah, and AMD has the dual core Turions. Yonah will certainly do OK, but IMHO it's the DC Turion that will be gaining the biggest marketshare in 2006. The reasons for that include the fact that all major laptop design wins commence in January, and Turion wasn't available for them this year. Even so they gained a 75% increase in sales from Q2 to Q3.
Also, Yonah will be 32 bit and Turion will be able to "sell" the 64 bit. While many of the knowledgable people will pooh-pooh this, we know from Netburst's success with the MHz myth that the general public won't (hopefully AMD's quadrupling of their ad budget next year will help them sell it).

Desktop:
There's really nothing on Intel's roadmap to even catch up with current A64 or X2 until Conroe, and if it's released near the end of 2006 (as expected), then we won't see it in the store until 2007.

Server:
The Benseley platform numbers do indeed look good, but look closely to understand why...
One of the Intel employees that posts here mentioned that a majority part of Benseley's success is due to the FBDimms it uses. This brings up 2 points...
1. FBDimms create a LOT of heat! If you look at the pictures of the Benseley server, you'll notice that the memory requires active cooling! This doesn't bode well for a platform that is already considered too hot and power hungry...
2. AMD is also releasing a new platform with FBDimms (that we haven't seen yet) for their Socket F Opterons...
 
T

TSS

Senior member
Nov 14, 2005
227
0
0
i dont think AMD has anything to fear on the server platform... the opteron's well established now, and the recent (well kinda) quad core announcement will only help it. unless intell's got one helluva ace up its sleve, AMD will gain more and more market share for atleast 2 more years...

desktop is kinda hard to guess... conroe's based on the pentium M, which Oced to 2.5+ ghz , blows even a FX-57 outta the water and consumes like half the power. though, thats only on games as far as i've seen, it lags behind horribly on other apps like video encoding... so i wonder how much intel can drag out of it.

mobile... well.. i guess intel will have the advantage for a while.

who ever will win the next CPU war, its definatly gonna be a exciting one...
 
J

jiffylube1024

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2002
7,430
0
71
I don't think AMD has anything to fear. As optimistic as late-2006 Intel CPU predictions are (since they will be unveiling their new architecture around then), most preliminary reports are comparing future Intel products to current AMD products.

Since reports are that AMD is ready to go to 65nm whenever the market demands it, as well as the usual tweaks and bumps in clockspeed, I don't think AMD has much to fear.

As Hacp said; dual core @ 3.0 Ghz will probably be all AMD needs to hold out through all of 2006, which should be a walk in the park for AMD to do.

I'll wait for Intel to actually release their next architecture before I make any predictions about how successful it will be. If it manages to have drastically lower power consumption than the A64 then I'd be interested, but I will personally be holding on to my X2 3800+ @ 2.5 Ghz probably for another 12 months.
 
S

Skott

Diamond Member
Oct 4, 2005
5,730
1
76
Its an ongoing chip war and wont end until one of the companies ceases to exist, which I doubt will ever happen. As long as we have two major chip companies competing there is a less chance of a monopoly developing. Of the two Intel probably has the most to be worried right now but the way I see it is that this is a good thing. Maybe this year will prompt Intel to do better than they have recently. Industry competition is good for the consumer.
 
N

ncage

Golden Member
Jan 14, 2001
1,608
0
71
I think i can briefly sum it up:

1) Intel has a lot of catchup to do on the desktop and server fronts

2) AMD has a lot of catch up to do on the mobile front. The turion does not compete with the pentium m when it comes to effeciency. Something amd will have to work on. They need an entirely new architecture for their mobile chips instead of just trying to rebrand an amd64.
 
G

glugglug

Diamond Member
Jun 9, 2002
5,340
1
81
There is nothing about the Bensley benchmarks impressive in a POSITIVE way. They are in fact impressively BAD. Look carefully, the propaganda benches spread around about them are comparing Intel's 2007 dual core procs to SINGLE CORE Opterons, and one of the lowest speed grade single core opterons sold at that, and the Opteron still comes out ahead.

AMD has NOTHING to worry about in 2006. Or 2007.

From a raw performance perspective, the only competitive product on the Intel roadmap for the next 2 years is the low-power stuff (shrink/dual core version of Dothan). But that is 32-bit, and everyone will want to go 64-bit for Vista, which also comes out in 2006. And when more code runs in 64-bit mode, and there are better 64-bit compilers out, the 32-bit cores will NOT be competitive with that.

Intel is in fact about to lose on the mobile front. Contrary to previous posts in this thread, Turion is just as low power as the Pentium M. And some dual core Turion laptops have already been spotted and are expected to become available in the next 2 months.
 
V

Viditor

Diamond Member
Oct 25, 1999
3,290
0
0
Originally posted by: ncage
I think i can briefly sum it up:

1) Intel has a lot of catchup to do on the desktop and server fronts

2) AMD has a lot of catch up to do on the mobile front. The turion does not compete with the pentium m when it comes to effeciency. Something amd will have to work on. They need an entirely new architecture for their mobile chips instead of just trying to rebrand an amd64.
Click to expand...

Actually, the Turion beat the Pentium M in most benchmarks and tied in others.
Dothan vs Turion
 
Markfw

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
27,248
16,108
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I vouch for those benchmarks. I got my son a Compaq 2410US Turion64 and it screams, has great battery life, and lots of features for $750
 
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