SHOCK POLL: 1 In 5 PA Democrats Will Defect To John McCain If Their Candidate Loses Nomination

[Pabster]

Story here.

A shock poll, indeed. Not completely surprising, as the numbers I've seen always showed that roughly 70% of Democratic voters would be happy with EITHER choice of nominee; But what is shocking? That the 30% are apparently going to vote Republican, rather than sit out or vote for the Dem nominee.

Advantage: McCain.


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Edited title to reflect truth in advertising

Senior Anandtech Moderator
Common Courtesy

 

[LegendKiller]

I will absolutely vote for McCain if Obama doesn't win the nomination.

 

[jonks]

This is Pennsylvania ONLY, not ALL DEMOCRATS across the country. Thread title should be 1 in 5 PN dems will defect to McCain. This doesn't necessarily reflect dem sentiment across the country.

 

[ElFenix]

i bet those are the same people that say they'll move to canada and they never have

 

[palehorse]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I will absolutely vote for McCain if Obama doesn't win the nomination.

what he said.

 

[RY62]

The thing to be learned here is that not all Democrats are Far Left "Progressives". There are just as many left leaning independants and middle of the road Democrats. To the folks in the middle ground, Senator McCain has the appeal of being known to work across the isle. With the division in the Dem party and the division between Democrats and Republicans, McCain may just well be the only one that will be able to get anything done.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: palehorse74

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I will absolutely vote for McCain if Obama doesn't win the nomination.

what he said.

The poll says 1 in 5 DEMS

 

[K1052]

The Democrats really have (amazingly) managed to get themselves into a Kobayashi Maru scenario.

After 8 years of one of the worst presidents in recent history they still aren't going to be able to win the office.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: sirjonk

Originally posted by: palehorse74

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I will absolutely vote for McCain if Obama doesn't win the nomination.

what he said.

The poll says 1 in 5 DEMS

I will vote Dem right now unless I can find a good Rep candidate. However, I will absolutely not vote for Shillery.

 

[Mxylplyx]

Originally posted by: ElFenix
i bet those are the same people that say they'll move to canada and they never have

Probably right. They'll just not vote instead of voting for McCain, which is still bad news for dems.

 

[Mxylplyx]

Originally posted by: K1052
The Democrats really have (amazingly) managed to get themselves into a Kobayashi Maru scenario.

After 8 years of one of the worst presidents in recent history they still aren't going to be able to win the office.

That is quite sad isnt it.

 

[yowolabi]

I don't believe this will actually happen, anymore than I believe the Clinton/McCain or Obama/McCain polls have any credence right now.

Don't forget that a poll, even when accurate, is only a snapshot in time. It's only natural that in such a heated race between Obama and Hillary, that some supporters will be against one of them at this time. After the smoke clears and the democrat is going head to head against McCain, things will definitely change.

If 20% of democrats vote for McCain in PA or any other state, I'll move to Hawaii.

 

[manowar821]

I'll write in my grandfather or my father if Obama doesn't win the nomination. There's no reason to vote for another neo-conservative.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: ElFenix
i bet those are the same people that say they'll move to canada and they never have

Yes.

This poll is pretty obviously false. If 20% of Democratic voters were going to vote Republican in the election then McCain should have colossal leads (probably about 15 points or so) in head to head polls against the Democrats. He doesn't. This means some people aren't being terribly truthful.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: ElFenix
i bet those are the same people that say they'll move to canada and they never have

Yes.

This poll is pretty obviously false. If 20% of Democratic voters were going to vote Republican in the election then McCain should have colossal leads (probably about 15 points or so) in head to head polls against the Democrats. He doesn't. This means some people aren't being terribly truthful.

Esk: that 20% said they'd vote rep only if their choice for nom doesn't win. Some polls actually do have Mac up by 10 points. The Rasmussen ones I think. That other poll I used to post had 14% of Clinton supporters bailing, but since the battle has intensified I can see those numbers increasing.

Of course, ultimately it could just be a threat voters are using to get their point across about how much they want their choice to win, but come november will pull the dem lever regardless.

 

[StageLeft]

People say a lot of things, especially stupid people who think that their anger alone will sway tides. I don't buy it.

AFAIK I do not believe for a second that when push comes to shove, despite whining bitching, that somebody who wanted to vote for hillary will not vote for obama when he wins the nomination and would instead vote for mccain. I do not believe these people and if they think they're being honest ,they are just being bitter or do not understand themselves.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: sirjonk

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: ElFenix
i bet those are the same people that say they'll move to canada and they never have

Yes.

This poll is pretty obviously false. If 20% of Democratic voters were going to vote Republican in the election then McCain should have colossal leads (probably about 15 points or so) in head to head polls against the Democrats. He doesn't. This means some people aren't being terribly truthful.

Esk: that 20% said they'd vote rep only if their choice for nom doesn't win. Some polls actually do have Mac up by 10 points. The Rasmussen ones I think. That other poll I used to post had 14% of Clinton supporters bailing, but since the battle has intensified I can see those numbers increasing.

Of course, ultimately it could just be a threat voters are using to get their point across about how much they want their choice to win, but come november will pull the dem lever regardless.

The 5 day polling averages have McCain up, but by 3 points, which is within the margin of error. The Rasmussen polls are showing a gap between 3 and 5 times that size. That would indicate their poll is crap.

I think my point still stands, if such significant amounts of Democratic support was really bleeding to McCain he would have a large lead. In most polls he is dead even, or fluctuating within 2 points on either side. This indicates a bit of a disparity between what people are saying in one poll vs. another.

 

[Starbuck1975]

AFAIK I do not believe for a second that when push comes to shove, despite whining bitching, that somebody who wanted to vote for hillary will not vote for obama when he wins the nomination and would instead vote for mccain. I do not believe these people and if they think they're being honest ,they are just being bitter or do not understand themselves.

Given the passionate nature of each candidate's demographics, and their distinct differences, I think it is quite possible for an adverse reaction by the supporters of one candidate once the other has the nomination.

I think it is quite possible for Hillary's supporters...women, hispanics and blue collar white men...to sit out the election or choose McCain over Obama.

I think it is quite possible for Obama's supporters...African Americans, educated white males and the youth vote...to sit out the election or choose McCain over Hillary.

I think my point still stands, if such significant amounts of Democratic support was really bleeding to McCain he would have a large lead. In most polls he is dead even, or fluctuating within 2 points on either side. This indicates a bit of a disparity between what people are saying in one poll vs. another.

These polls don't take into account what will happen once one of the Democrat candidates is out of the race, and how their respective support base will splinter...McCain benefits regardless given how hostile the Obama and Clinton campaigns have become in recent weeks.

Just look at the threads on this very topic in these forums...the Democrats are well past reconciliation, and both Hillary and Obama are weaker now than say even 3 months ago in going up against McCain.

McCain was a long shot in January, and now, not only his he the presumtpive Republican nominee, but he is polling neck and neck with both Obama and Hillary...that should be quite concerning to the Democrats.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: palehorse74

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
I will absolutely vote for McCain if Obama doesn't win the nomination.

what he said.

weird, because I will absolutely vote for McCain if (when) Hillary doesn't win the nomination.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975

AFAIK I do not believe for a second that when push comes to shove, despite whining bitching, that somebody who wanted to vote for hillary will not vote for obama when he wins the nomination and would instead vote for mccain. I do not believe these people and if they think they're being honest ,they are just being bitter or do not understand themselves.

Given the passionate nature of each candidate's demographics, and their distinct differences, I think it is quite possible for an adverse reaction by the supporters of one candidate once the other has the nomination.

I think it is quite possible for Hillary's supporters...women, hispanics and blue collar white men...to sit out the election or choose McCain over Obama.

I think it is quite possible for Obama's supporters...African Americans, educated white males and the youth vote...to sit out the election or choose McCain over Hillary.

I think my point still stands, if such significant amounts of Democratic support was really bleeding to McCain he would have a large lead. In most polls he is dead even, or fluctuating within 2 points on either side. This indicates a bit of a disparity between what people are saying in one poll vs. another.

These polls don't take into account what will happen once one of the Democrat candidates is out of the race, and how their respective support base will splinter...McCain benefits regardless given how hostile the Obama and Clinton campaigns have become in recent weeks.

Just look at the threads on this very topic in these forums...the Democrats are well past reconciliation, and both Hillary and Obama are weaker now than say even 3 months ago in going up against McCain.

McCain was a long shot in January, and now, not only his he the presumtpive Republican nominee, but he is polling neck and neck with both Obama and Hillary...that should be quite concerning to the Democrats.

Why would those polls not take that into account? Are you attempting to say that when asked to choose between Obama and McCain now, that Clinton supporters are answering Obama until he actually wins the nomination at which point they will switch? That makes no sense.

The democrats are well past reconciliation? Riiiight. That's a very very large assumption. One that I believe is almost certainly wrong.

 

[Veramocor]

Originally posted by: K1052
The Democrats really have (amazingly) managed to get themselves into a Kobayashi Maru scenario.

After 8 years of one of the worst presidents in recent history they still aren't going to be able to win the office.

So Hillary is going to reprogram the voting machines to win the un-winnable scenario?

Hillary: I changed the conditions of the primary; got a commendation for original thinking. I don't like to lose.

Hillary: OBAMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[RY62]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
People say a lot of things, especially stupid people who think that their anger alone will sway tides. I don't buy it.

AFAIK I do not believe for a second that when push comes to shove, despite whining bitching, that somebody who wanted to vote for hillary will not vote for obama when he wins the nomination and would instead vote for mccain. I do not believe these people and if they think they're being honest ,they are just being bitter or do not understand themselves.

People choose their candidates for many reasons. they also reject candidates for many reasons. While I agree that people who align with the far left will probably vote for whichever Dem gets the nod, I can say with full honesty that I will vote for McCain if Obama gets the nomination. I don't expect to sway any tides at this point, I won't be happy but I won't be bitter, and I fully understand myself. I simply would not have voted for Obama under any circumstances. I'd bet that these convictions make me a minority but I'm sure there are quite a few of us backing both Clinton and Obama.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: sirjonk

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: ElFenix
i bet those are the same people that say they'll move to canada and they never have

Yes.

This poll is pretty obviously false. If 20% of Democratic voters were going to vote Republican in the election then McCain should have colossal leads (probably about 15 points or so) in head to head polls against the Democrats. He doesn't. This means some people aren't being terribly truthful.

Esk: that 20% said they'd vote rep only if their choice for nom doesn't win. Some polls actually do have Mac up by 10 points. The Rasmussen ones I think. That other poll I used to post had 14% of Clinton supporters bailing, but since the battle has intensified I can see those numbers increasing.

Of course, ultimately it could just be a threat voters are using to get their point across about how much they want their choice to win, but come november will pull the dem lever regardless.

The 5 day polling averages have McCain up, but by 3 points, which is within the margin of error. The Rasmussen polls are showing a gap between 3 and 5 times that size. That would indicate their poll is crap.

I think my point still stands, if such significant amounts of Democratic support was really bleeding to McCain he would have a large lead. In most polls he is dead even, or fluctuating within 2 points on either side. This indicates a bit of a disparity between what people are saying in one poll vs. another.

When pollsters ask the generic question "would you rather the next president be dem or rep" the results show a dem wins by 13%, but head to head w/Mac both dems draw even or lose. Could be the factor is HC/BO supporters jumping ship from the first question to the second.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: sirjonk

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: sirjonk

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: ElFenix
i bet those are the same people that say they'll move to canada and they never have

Yes.

This poll is pretty obviously false. If 20% of Democratic voters were going to vote Republican in the election then McCain should have colossal leads (probably about 15 points or so) in head to head polls against the Democrats. He doesn't. This means some people aren't being terribly truthful.

Esk: that 20% said they'd vote rep only if their choice for nom doesn't win. Some polls actually do have Mac up by 10 points. The Rasmussen ones I think. That other poll I used to post had 14% of Clinton supporters bailing, but since the battle has intensified I can see those numbers increasing.

Of course, ultimately it could just be a threat voters are using to get their point across about how much they want their choice to win, but come november will pull the dem lever regardless.

The 5 day polling averages have McCain up, but by 3 points, which is within the margin of error. The Rasmussen polls are showing a gap between 3 and 5 times that size. That would indicate their poll is crap.

I think my point still stands, if such significant amounts of Democratic support was really bleeding to McCain he would have a large lead. In most polls he is dead even, or fluctuating within 2 points on either side. This indicates a bit of a disparity between what people are saying in one poll vs. another.

When pollsters ask the generic question "would you rather the next president be dem or rep" the results show a dem wins by 13%, but head to head w/Mac both dems draw even or lose. Could be the factor is HC/BO supporters jumping ship from the first question to the second.

Possible, but unlikely. Shifts like that are extremely common in polling when you talk about generic party preference vs. specific candidates.