Seven Myths About War

[Perknose]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/think_again_war?page=0,0

1. "The World Is a More Violent Place Than It Used to Be."
--No way.

2. "America Is Fighting More Wars Than Ever."
-- Yes and no.

3. "War Has Gotten More Brutal for Civilians."
-- Hardly.

4. "Wars Will Get Worse in the Future."
-- Probably not.

5. "A More Democratic World Will Be a More Peaceful One."
-- Not necessarily.
As the University of Chicago's Charles Lipson once quipped about the notion of a democratic peace, "We know it works in practice. Now we have to see if it works in theory!"

6. "Peacekeeping Doesn't Work."
-- It does now.
Overall, the presence of peacekeepers has been shown to significantly reduce the likelihood of a war's reigniting after a cease-fire agreement. In the 1990s, about half of all cease-fires broke down, but in the past decade the figure has dropped to 12 percent. And though the U.N.'s status as a perennial punching bag in American politics suggests otherwise, these efforts are quite popular: In a 2007 survey, 79 percent of Americans favored strengthening the U.N.

7. "Some Conflicts Will Never End."
-- Never say never.
In 2005, researchers at the U.S. Institute of Peace characterized 14 wars, from Northern Ireland to Kashmir, as "intractable," in that they "resist any kind of settlement or resolution." Six years later, however, a funny thing has happened: All but a few of these wars (Israel-Palestine, Somalia, and Sudan) have either ended or made substantial progress toward doing so.

I picked out a few quotes I liked, but read the article before disagreeing, it's short. I think we all know the posters who won't bother reading the article before doing so.

My comment on this article is that it's interesting and thought-provoking, if not, at times, truly conclusive.

 

[woolfe9999]

Read the article in its entirety. Very interesting. None of it surprises me as those were the answers I would have guessed at in each case. Our sense of everything seeming to get worse in the world is a direct function of advances in communications technology. We are made aware of war, death, and atrocities on a daily basis and hence our perception of its frequency is heightened. Two other cultural biases are also at work: a tendency to remember fondly a past which was by almost every objective measure worse than the present, and the fact that cynicism has become culturally fashionable. The notion that anything is getting better is one that tends to be maligned as naive.

 

[ichy]

Another myth is: "Violence never solved anything."

 

[zinfamous]

neckbeard disagrees 100%

 

[cwjerome]

I often post about how everything seems so drastic in the here and now, but it's just the nature of living in the present. I believe many people do not have a clear, comprehensive understanding of history and many people are simply predisposed towards the negative.

We are pretty much going through the longest and best international peace period since the formation of nation states around 1640, and probably a good period before that. Wars between major powers don't happen anymore (knock on wood) and although conflicts are common they are relatively low intensity.

 

[ProfJohn]

"The World Is a More Violent Place Than It Used to Be."
Anyone who actually believed that was a fool.

 

[Doppel]

"The World Is a More Violent Place Than It Used to Be."
Anyone who actually believed that was a fool.

A lot do. It's ignorance bred by the Availability Heuristic.

Literally billions alive now have never personally known war, the closest they've come is a relative sent off somewhere, but they've not seen it at home. This has to be markedly changed from centuries past.

 

[ProfJohn]

The number of Americans killed in Iraq + Afghanistan + 9/11 + other terror attacks is still less than the worst year of Vietnam.

And the US population is 50% larger than it was back then.

Imagine 24,000 Americans being killed in one year.


The world will be a much better place in 50 years than it is now, unless we are all broke..

 

[Blintok]

The number of Americans killed in Iraq + Afghanistan + 9/11 + other terror attacks is still less than the worst year of Vietnam.
And the US population is 50% larger than it was back then.
Imagine 24,000 Americans being killed in one year.
The world will be a much better place in 50 years than it is now, unless we are all broke..

and look at World War One - "The Great War" war to end all wars.

Just on the first day of the battle of the Somme - British casualties were
almost 60,000. and this battle went on for a few more months

The combined French and German casualties for the Verdun battle was almost
1 million.

and not to belittle the American Vietnam war dead. almost 60.000 is alot.
but, to compare. In World war 1 the Canadian dead was about the same.
but when you factor in the % of the population that would be like the USA
losing over 5million in VietNam

 

[DCal430]

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/think_again_war?page=0,0

I picked out a few quotes I liked, but read the article before disagreeing, it's short. I think we all know the posters who won't bother reading the article before doing so.

My comment on this article is that it's interesting and thought-provoking, if not, at times, truly conclusive.

Society is more dangerous. 20 years ago children could walk home alone from school, not today. 50 years ago you could leave your doors unlocked and wide open and still be safe from buglers and robbers, not today. 20 years you we didn't have all of these child abductions, rapes, and killings. Society is much more dangerous. Parents need to watch every corner, because predators are lurking everywhere now.

 

[werepossum]

Society is more dangerous. 20 years ago children could walk home alone from school, not today. 50 years ago you could leave your doors unlocked and wide open and still be safe from buglers and robbers, not today. 20 years you we didn't have all of these child abductions, rapes, and killings. Society is much more dangerous. Parents need to watch every corner, because predators are lurking everywhere now.

This is very true. However society is much, much safer from the results of war. In Iraq and Afghanistan, and I'm sure in Libya, we go to great pains to avoid civilian casualties. As recently as World War II, wholesale bombing of civilians was the accepted method of warfare, to "break their will" to continue the war. There were many military and civilian leaders who thought nothing but strategic bombing would ever again be necessary to win a war. There are still living World War II veterans, yet war has totally changed since then.

 

[woolfe9999]

Society is more dangerous. 20 years ago children could walk home alone from school, not today. 50 years ago you could leave your doors unlocked and wide open and still be safe from buglers and robbers, not today. 20 years you we didn't have all of these child abductions, rapes, and killings. Society is much more dangerous. Parents need to watch every corner, because predators are lurking everywhere now.

Actually this is false. Violent crime, and crime in general, was MUCH higher 20 years ago than today. 20 years ago it was at its highest rate in our history. It peaked in 1993 and has declined yearly since. It is now basically at the level it was at in 1971, while the homicide rate is where it was at 50 years ago, in 1960. If the present rate of decline continues as it has since 1993, by 2020 we'll basically be back where we were in 1960.

Yet we'll never stop locking our doors. The reason is parallel to why we incorrectly perceive the world to be more violent now than it was in the past. It's our 24 news cycle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States

- wolf

 

[zinfamous]

Actually this is false. Violent crime, and crime in general, was MUCH higher 20 years ago than today. 20 years ago it was at its highest rate in our history. It peaked in 1993 and has declined yearly since. It is now basically at the level it was at in 1971, while the homicide rate is where it was at 50 years ago, in 1960. If the present rate of decline continues as it has since 1993, by 2020 we'll basically be back where we were in 1960.

Yet we'll never stop locking our doors. The reason is parallel to why we incorrectly perceive the world to be more violent now than it was in the past. It's our 24 news cycle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States

- wolf

imagine what it was like before the electric light, or even gas lighting was ubiquitous.

If you read up on the history of daily life in ancient, feudal, and later civilizations, you'd learn some shocking things about the night time.

there was a reason it was called the "witching hours."

I know in Rome, the streets were generally verboten at night. No one in their right mind was expected to journey outside their door when the sun went down. If you did, you were expected to run briskly from place to place, lest you run afoul of some terrible crime.

I think those that were found outside during the night time were generally assumed to be criminals.

 

[Doppel]

Society is more dangerous. 20 years ago children could walk home alone from school, not today. 50 years ago you could leave your doors unlocked and wide open and still be safe from buglers and robbers, not today. 20 years you we didn't have all of these child abductions, rapes, and killings. Society is much more dangerous. Parents need to watch every corner, because predators are lurking everywhere now.

Again, availability heuristic. This is, assuming you're not posting in jest, but you're a perfect and fantastic example of it. Violent crime has fallen in recent decades, not risen; you're safer walking home than before, safer leaving your doors unlocked than before.

This is very true.

It's very true in opposite-world. Actually, at least according to this, things are a little worse than 50 years ago but much better than 20 years ago: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States

Unfortunately woolfe beat me to this

 

[ProfJohn]

Society is more dangerous. 20 years ago children could walk home alone from school, not today. 50 years ago you could leave your doors unlocked and wide open and still be safe from buglers and robbers, not today. 20 years you we didn't have all of these child abductions, rapes, and killings. Society is much more dangerous. Parents need to watch every corner, because predators are lurking everywhere now.

More myths.

The rate of most crimes is down.

What isn't down is the amount of coverage given to crimes. This create a fake perception that we live in a more dangerous society than 10 or 20 years ago.

 

[TheSlamma]

#7.. Israel modern and ancient

 

[zinfamous]

More myths.

The rate of most crimes is down.

What isn't down is the amount of coverage given to crimes. This create a fake perception that we live in a more dangerous society than 10 or 20 years ago.

I'm just'a gonna put this right here...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

:whiste:

 

[ProfJohn]

I'm just'a gonna put this right here...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

:whiste:

Using Census Bureau population estimates, Foote and Goetz repeated the analysis using arrest rates in place of simple arrest totals, and found that the effect of abortion disappeared entirely.[4].



hmmmm

 

[woolfe9999]

Here's a good article on why crime continues to decline even in the recession:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0524/US-crime-rate-is-down-six-key-reasons

What's interesting is reasons are given which would appeal to the right, and others given that would appeal to the left. Perhaps both parties had some valid points back in the 80's and 90's when crime was still a hot button political issue in the country (it basically gets no play in national elections these days because crime is down.)

The six reasons given:

1. Incarceration. Stiffer sentencing means more violent criminals are behind bars.

2. Proactive policing. This includes things like cameras being basically everywhere these days.

3. Social programs. Programs from either the private or public sector to provide alternatives to kids to keep them out of gangs and off the streets.

4. Demographics. Crime is committed mostly by the young, and the young are a lower percentage of the population these days.

5. Unemployment benefits. Unemployment extensions during the recession have helped stave off the crime that can result from unemployment.

6. Decreased opportunity. People are at home more often during a recession and this prevents burglaries. Also, people tend to have fewer valuables/cash on hand.

 

[ElFenix]

Myth 8: Casualties means deaths

 

[irishScott]

Here's a good article on why crime continues to decline even in the recession:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/0524/US-crime-rate-is-down-six-key-reasons

What's interesting is reasons are given which would appeal to the right, and others given that would appeal to the left. Perhaps both parties had some valid points back in the 80's and 90's when crime was still a hot button political issue in the country (it basically gets no play in national elections these days because crime is down.)

The six reasons given:

1. Incarceration. Stiffer sentencing means more violent criminals are behind bars.

2. Proactive policing. This includes things like cameras being basically everywhere these days.

3. Social programs. Programs from either the private or public sector to provide alternatives to kids to keep them out of gangs and off the streets.

4. Demographics. Crime is committed mostly by the young, and the young are a lower percentage of the population these days.

5. Unemployment benefits. Unemployment extensions during the recession have helped stave off the crime that can result from unemployment.

6. Decreased opportunity. People are at home more often during a recession and this prevents burglaries. Also, people tend to have fewer valuables/cash on hand.

I'd also like to point out that gun sales have skyrocketed in the last few years, with millions being sold every year. Concealed carry laws are also more relaxed than ever, with 41 states having shall-issue laws (if you're not a criminal and pass a basic safety class, you qualify) or no restriction'; compared to <10 states 25 years ago. It's certainly not the most significant factor, but IMO it's reached the point where it is becoming a factor. I can't find any nation-wide statistics past 2003, but all numbers for state level concealed carry are in the hundreds of thousands in most shall-issue/unrestricted states, and growing. Some laws are more recent and have had less time to take effect, but the net effect is millions if not 10s of millions of private citizens licensed to be armed at almost all times.

Robbing a house or mugging someone is becoming more and more dangerous for the perpetrators.

 

[woolfe9999]

I'd also like to point out that gun sales have skyrocketed in the last few years, with millions being sold every year. Concealed carry laws are also more relaxed than ever, with 41 states having shall-issue laws (if you're not a criminal and pass a basic safety class, you qualify) or no restriction'; compared to <10 states 25 years ago. It's certainly not the most significant factor, but IMO it's reached the point where it is becoming a factor. I can't find any nation-wide statistics past 2003, but all numbers for state level concealed carry are in the hundreds of thousands in most shall-issue/unrestricted states, and growing. Some laws are more recent and have had less time to take effect, but the net effect is millions if not 10s of millions of private citizens licensed to be armed at almost all times.

Robbing a house or mugging someone is becoming more and more dangerous for the perpetrators.

I'm not going to take a position on this, but I'm pretty sure the hypothesis could be tested by looking at the crime rate state by state and seeing if it correlates to concealed carry laws which certainly do not exist anywhere.

In any event, if it's a factor I doubt it's a major one since crime began declining way back in 1993.

 

[irishScott]

I'm not going to take a position on this, but I'm pretty sure the hypothesis could be tested by looking at the crime rate state by state and seeing if it correlates to concealed carry laws which certainly do not exist anywhere.

In any event, if it's a factor I doubt it's a major one since crime began declining way back in 1993.

There have been multiple studies doing exactly that and more, and all that I've seen show either no change or a mild drop in crime correlating with the loosening of carry restrictions. But in the interest of not sparking a derailing flamefest from the armchair statisticians I refrained from posting them. Not that there's anything wrong with most of their statistics, but this is P&N. The sky is purple to some people here if their party tells them so.

 

[SammyJr]

Society is more dangerous. 20 years ago children could walk home alone from school, not today. 50 years ago you could leave your doors unlocked and wide open and still be safe from buglers and robbers, not today. 20 years you we didn't have all of these child abductions, rapes, and killings. Society is much more dangerous. Parents need to watch every corner, because predators are lurking everywhere now.

I believe much of this to be media sensationalism and helicopter parent paranoia. There are bad areas and good areas, just like there were 20 years ago.

As for leaving doors open, people around here have left their garages open all night. Nothing has happened.

 

[bfdd]

Society is more dangerous. 20 years ago children could walk home alone from school, not today. 50 years ago you could leave your doors unlocked and wide open and still be safe from buglers and robbers, not today. 20 years you we didn't have all of these child abductions, rapes, and killings. Society is much more dangerous. Parents need to watch every corner, because predators are lurking everywhere now.

Or it's not that bad and that's just how we perceive it? I see children walking home from school all the time, no issues.