Senate down to Montana

[Aimster]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Why do you think Burns isn't going to win MT? I am looking on CNN that yellowstone county has 0% precincts reporting, and that county went 41000 to 25000 for Bush in 2004. Burns only down by 3000

Well good point, but in 2004 the entire state also went 59% 39% in favor of Bush.
Right now it appears the difference is only going to be 1-3%.

 

[senseamp]

Originally posted by: CellarDoor

Originally posted by: senseamp
Why do you think Burns isn't going to win MT? I am looking on CNN that yellowstone county has 0% precincts reporting, and that county went 41000 to 25000 for Bush in 2004. Burns only down by 3000

Yellowstone is being recounted. The initial counts for yellowstone had Tester up about 3200 I believe, and they are just recounting to make sure. It sounded like they didn't think the vote was going to change that much. You can't go by Bush's numbers because this isn't Kerry running in Montana. This guy has a freaking crew-cut.

I bet that cut will become much more popular with politicians. Of course if Kerry got one, he'd look like Frankenstein even more

 

[Wreckem]

Back up to 4000.

Oh and Meagher the other county still not reporting had less than a 1000 votes in 2004 so it wont be an issue.

These are the following counties that have not yet reached 100%

Cascade - trending Tester 61% reporting
Fergus - trending Burns 25% reporting
Gallatin - about 50/50 22% reporting
Lake - about 50/50 91% reporting
Lewis and Clark - trending Tester 98% reporting
Meagher - ZERO REPORTING
Yellowstone - ZERO REPORTING

I think Tester will hold on.

 

[Aimster]

It all pretty much comes down to Yellowstone

 

[Wreckem]

Lead is back up over 5000 after Glacier and Lincoln fully reported.

 

[senseamp]

I heard yellowstone is where Burns is from... Is Tester really ahead there?
Hard to believe.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: senseamp
I heard yellowstone is where Burns is from... Is Tester really ahead there?
Hard to believe.

He was leading Yellowstone, but they are recounting. They screwed up counting the absentee ballots. So the outcome of yellow stone is in question, but they should be reporting in the next hour or two.

It depends on how bad their screwup was. With all the absentee ballots and 50% of the precients he was up 1,300. But they might double counted some absentee ballots.

 

[senseamp]

Reps are more likely to vote absentee than Dems. So if they double counted and Tester was still ahead, he is in good shape.

 

[Wreckem]

Yellowstone is coming in right now its pretty much 50/50 with 14% reporting.

Gallatin is 49/49 with 33% reporting.

The areas not reporting 100% in other counties will likely be a small net for Testers.

Gallatin and Yellowstone will decide the winner. Both could swing either way.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Reps are more likely to vote absentee than Dems. So if they double counted and Tester was still ahead, he is in good shape.

He doesnt have to win Yellowstone, he just has to keep it close. Turn out in Gallatin and Yellowstone was actually higher this year than in 2004.

 

[senseamp]

that sounds interesting I gotta visit yellowstone, see why they can't count a few blocks worth of people and keep the rest of the country waiting

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: senseamp
that sounds interesting I gotta visit yellowstone, see why they can't count a few blocks worth of people and keep the rest of the country waiting

Because they had to recount ~80,000 votes and apparently they only have two machines.

 

[Wreckem]

Second batch of Yellowstone has come in

Burns is gaining... Testers leads by 2700.

Now 2500.

 

[senseamp]

If same ratio persists in other prescincts, Tester will only be up by 700 votes.
And that's a big IF.

 

[Wreckem]

2000.

Doesnt look good.

 

[Wreckem]

1700.

Gallatin, Yellowstone, and Meagher all have yet to finish counting. Yellowstone is supposed to be done soon.

 

[Aimster]

what about absentee? already calculated?

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Aimster
what about absentee? already calculated?

They count the absentees in Montana before they count the normal votes. This is why Yellowstone is taking so long, the screwed up counting the absentee ballots and started a entire recount at 1am local time. Montana also has a new state law that allows registration on election day, so there may be a number of provisional ballots that need to be counted.

Gallatin is taking so long because the polls didnt close to 12am local time. This was a result of the new law.

Virgina is counting absentee votes starting later this morning.

 

[rockyct]

lol, tonight is almost playing out like a novel with these last two senate seats. That Allen/Web race switched back and forth so many times and we still probably won't see who won in either of these races until days, even weeks, from now. I'm sure the cable news networks are enjoying it.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: rockyct
lol, tonight is almost playing out like a novel with these last two senate seats. That Allen/Web race switched back and forth so many times and we still probably won't see who won in either of these races until days, even weeks, from now. I'm sure the cable news networks are enjoying it.

Theres going to be a recount, and that can't state until Nov 28. So its going to be about a month and a half before we know the final outcome of VA.

 

[rockyct]

Yeah, a recount's not going to happen for a while, but the results may flip a couple more times today after more absentee ballots are counted. Odds are a recount will not effect the outcome, but I think there's still just too much in the air right now with the first round of counting.

 

[Wreckem]

Good god. How long does it take to count ~40k and ~60k ballots respectively. And WTF is up with Meagher, it had less than 1000 votes in 2004 and has yet to report a damn thing. God Montana get off your fvcking ass and get done already.

LOL soon as I post this Yellowstone posts 94% of their votes.

Tester leads by 1507, with Gallatin and Meagher remaining.

 

[Wreckem]

Tester is up by 1586 votes with 99% reporting.

The "republican stronghold" of Gallatin broke 49%/49%.

 

[rockyct]

While Tester's lead dropped 200 votes, the % reporting jumped to 96%. It's going to be close, but I think Tester may squeak by. Results from Meagher and Yellowstone probably aren't going to change it, and Gallatin seems split. Tester's margin may drop to under 1000, but I think he's got it.

edit: looks like Tester got it.

 

[halik]

where are you guys pulling these numbers from ? I can't find anyone claiming anything other than too close to call