(Second + Third) Ebola Confirmed Infection Dallas

[Imp]

What else should be done other than blow it off? Nothing I can do about it.

What we should really be doing is figuring out how to profit from the crazies. I'm sure someone much more entrepreneurial than me is doing their part on that front.

There's blowing it off and not doing anything about it or even having it impact your life, which is what I'm doing.

And then there's calling people who want to do something about it or is showing concern crazy or stupid -- not to say there aren't some people who are a bit too worried.

 

[Ruptga]

I don't think it'll be full blown end of the world scenario... but I'm puzzled by some of the people just blowing it off like it's nothing, only an official death toll of 4k so far.

For my part, I make a distinction about important things I can do something about, and important things I can't (or don't need to) do anything about. Since I can't do anything but lobby and panic, and so far there have been two whole cases in the country, I just don't care. If it ever becomes apparent that our collective response is insufficient (i.e., thousands of cases spreading across the nation), then I will start to care, because then there will be something productive I personally can do about it.

At this point the Ebola scare has been going for months and we already have several active threads on the topic. A good half of those posts are insipid, yelling about closing borders and ports, some variation of "I'm not panicking, but...", or plain old insane political conspiracy theories. People calling for additional action don't have much credibility in my eyes, because the majority of those people aren't being rational and aren't particularly well-informed.

 

[disappoint]

Ebola only killed 4000 people in Africa.

So let's say ebola kills 4000. Year in the usa. That's less than the number of alcohol deaths a year.

Should not be any cause for alarm.

College kills 1800 students a year from alcohol.

http://www.niaaa.nih.gov/alcohol-health/special-populations-co-occurring-disorders/college-drinking

Yeah but 1 healthcare worker's life is worth 10000 drunkies.

 

[Fingolfin269]

I'll bet there is some guy working behind a deli counter who could figure out a great way to profit from the Ebola scare.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Wait till ebola reaches the gay community. HIV existed for decades under the radar until it got into the gay community, then it spread like wildfire.

Read the book "And the band played on" and you would see what I mean.

 

[Engineer]

http://news.yahoo.com/patient-isola...aying-ebola-symptoms-newspaper-200117720.html

 

[Ruptga]

Wait till ebola reaches the gay community. HIV existed for decades under the radar until it got into the gay community, then it spread like wildfire.

Read the book "And the band played on" and you would see what I mean.

You are such a moron, I don't even know where to begin. Just tell me, where do the blacks fit in with this?

 

[who?]

Flights to the US from the countries where the outbreak is occurring go to 5 airports. US Customs is concentrating detection efforts at those airports.

 

[Hugo Drax]

You are such a moron, I don't even know where to begin. Just tell me, where do the blacks fit in with this?

Why don't you read the book and you will see what I mean. It is all there in the book.
HIV exploded into the world during the hedonistic late 60s and 70s-80s


http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaëtan_Dugas

I highly recommend reading that book.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/And_the_Band_Played_On

 

[massmedia]

Flights to the US from the countries where the outbreak is occurring go to 5 airports. US Customs is concentrating detection efforts at those airports.

that's a waste of time and would fall squarely in the category of "security theater".

The incubation period is so long that people with the virus can travel all over the planet from country to country before traveling to the US.

The 5 airport containment plan is a joke and is made to make everyone feel warm and fuzzy inside. Furthermore even with checks at every airport in the World, you would expect infected people to almost never be detected because the odds of symptoms during the short window of time that you're traveling are small (long incubation time once again).

The only way to contain this in Africa is to physically contain the carriers in Africa. Let the aide go in, let aide workers go in, shut down airports, border checkpoints, ports etc. This will NEVER happen because African natural resources are worth billions (trillions?) to western business interests (especially the tech industry). This is a tech forum, so I'm assuming people know this already.

As to the nurse getting sick, it's a tragedy and it is very sad that it has happened but hopefully something good can come out of this, a wake up call.

 

[disappoint]

that's a waste of time and would fall squarely in the category of "security theater".

The incubation period is so long that people with the virus can travel all over the planet from country to country before traveling to the US.

The 5 airport containment plan is a joke and is made to make everyone feel warm and fuzzy inside. Furthermore even with checks at every airport in the World, you would expect infected people to almost never be detected because the odds of symptoms during the short window of time that you're traveling are small (long incubation time once again).

The only way to contain this in Africa is to physically contain the carriers in Africa. Let the aide go in, let aide workers go in, shut down airports, border checkpoints, ports etc. This will NEVER happen because African natural resources are worth billions (trillions?) to western business interests (especially the tech industry). This is a tech forum, so I'm assuming people know this already.

As to the nurse getting sick, it's a tragedy and it is very sad that it has happened but hopefully something good can come out of this, a wake up call.

:thumbsup: Unfortunately they'll likely sleep through that wake-up call.

 

[who?]

Homeland security claims that they can trace peoples travel back to their countries of origin.

 

[dmcowen674]

Flights to the US from the countries where the outbreak is occurring go to 5 airports. US Customs is concentrating detection efforts at those airports.

Not stopping flights in from Liberia is the same as purposely bringing an Outbreak here.

10-12-2014

http://news.yahoo.com/patient-isola...aying-ebola-symptoms-newspaper-200117720.html

Patient with Ebola symptoms transferred to Boston hospital



A patient in Massachusetts who recently returned from Liberia and was displaying symptoms of Ebola was transferred from a medical clinic to a Boston hospital on Sunday, the hospital said.


Fire and ambulance services responded to the hospital and put an Ebola protocol in place, said William Cash of the Braintree Fire Department. He said the patient is a male.

 

[massmedia]

Homeland security claims that they can trace peoples travel back to their countries of origin.

• 
  they probably can but it's still just security theater.
  
  Imagine a random set of 100 people who have Ebola and their symptomatic phase will begin on a random day between day 2-21ish p.i. (post infection)
  
  You are at the airport and given an Ebola symptom detector and you get to point it at these Ebola infected individuals on a random day for each person between the days 0-22 p.i. All of the infected individuals will be traveling through your detection booth.
  
  Using RANDOM.ORG I generated a randomly assorted list of 100 numbers from 0-22 (this is the day that you check them). This goes into excel column 1. In Excel column 2 goes a similar list of 100 random assorted numbers from 0-21 (this is the date symptomatic).
  
  A quick sorting of these data show me that by random chance:
• 34 people became symptomatic 4 or more days before their flight so we assume they didn't fly
• 8 became symptomatic 3 days before being scanned (do they fly?)
• 7 became symptomatic 2 days before being scanned (they might fly)
• 3 symptomatic 1 day before being scanned
• 5 symptomatic on the day of being scanned (before or after being scanned?? since a day is long and the scan is short... let's give the security theater the benefit of the doubt and say that 3 became symptomatic on the day of scanning but before the scan took place)
• 2 symptomatic 01 day post security theater scan (p.s.t.s.)
  
• 4 symptomatic 02 days p.s.t.s.
• 3 symptomatic 03 days p.s.t.s.
• 5 symptomatic 04 days p.s.t.s.
• 4 symptomatic 05 days p.s.t.s.
• 1 symptomatic 06 days p.s.t.s.
• 0 symptomatic 07 days p.s.t.s.
• 2 symptomatic 08 days p.s.t.s.
• 2 symptomatic 09 days p.s.t.s.
• 2 symptomatic 10 days p.s.t.s.
• 5 symptomatic 11 days p.s.t.s.
• 3 symptomatic 12 days p.s.t.s.
• 3 symptomatic 13 days p.s.t.s.
• 0 symptomatic 14 days p.s.t.s.
• 3 symptomatic 15 days p.s.t.s.
• 0 symptomatic 16 days p.s.t.s.
• 0 symptomatic 17 days p.s.t.s.
• 1 symptomatic 18 days p.s.t.s.
• 2 symptomatic 19 days p.s.t.s.
• 1 symptomatic 20 days p.s.t.s.
• 0 symptomatic 21 days p.s.t.s.

so out of the 100 infected who had plane tickets:

• 34 were too sick to travel (thus no scan)
• 8+7 =15 who let's say traveled but were very sick and probably detected in africa before leaving
• 3 who traveled to US
• 5 who got sick on the day of travel (however 2 began to have symptoms after clearing the customs)... maybe in the taxi or at McDonalds on the way home
• 43 who became symptomatic 1 or more days post security theater scan

So.... out of the 100:

• You scanned 43+5+3= 51 people infected with Ebola!
• You p.s.t.s. scanner has a detection accuracy of 80%, so out of 3+3=6 potential to be detected you catch 5!
• 43 are asymptomatic at time of p.s.t.s scannage and you never had a hope to ever detect them

Your Score = 5 / 51
You Caught = 9.8% of the sick people who walked by
43 Ebola people will be spreading fluids around to infect fellow Americans.

/END Security Theater Demonstration

 

[massmedia]

Ok so I repeated the above simulation with 1000 instead of 100 Ebola infeced individuals:

317 too sick to travel so never get screened
86 symptomatic 2-3 days before arrival so probably never leave africa
38 symptomatic 1 day before being scanned
32 symptomatic on day of scan (16 before scannage / 16 after scannage)
527 symptomatic 1 or more days after being scanned



38+16= 54 for whom there is a chance at detecting
@80% accuracy... catch 43 / 54
@90% accuracy... catch 49 / 54

So out of 527+32+38 = 597 infected the system catches between 43-49
7.2% - 8.2% detected at border in trial 2

 

[darkxshade]

I'm actually quite surprised that being around for quite some time, Ebola has managed to stay contained for this long. I always wondered what's stopping someone who isn't symptomatic from flying out of Africa and then being diagnosed later.

This actually kinda freaks me out. Like what if suicidal terrorists get the idea to purposefully infect themselves and then find a way to smuggle into the US and simply roam the streets of say NYC and just interact with everyone and everything.

 

[darkswordsman17]

Why don't you read the book and you will see what I mean. It is all there in the book.
HIV exploded into the world during the hedonistic late 60s and 70s-80s


http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaëtan_Dugas

I highly recommend reading that book.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/And_the_Band_Played_On

Why don't you understand why there's a bit of a difference between Ebola and HIV/AIDS for why what you said was incredibly stupid.

There's blowing it off and not doing anything about it or even having it impact your life, which is what I'm doing.

And then there's calling people who want to do something about it or is showing concern crazy or stupid -- not to say there aren't some people who are a bit too worried.

I don't think it'll be full blown end of the world scenario... but I'm puzzled by some of the people just blowing it off like it's nothing, only an official death toll of 4k so far.

There's a lot of reasons for this, and sorry but a lot of the "people showing concern" are ignorant people using it for fearmongering. OMG ISIS is gonna send people intentionally infected with Ebola over the borders! Even a lot of the other arguments are seriously stupid.

Ebola has been hyped into being something that it just isn't.

Also, there are people taking rational assessment of this. That's why people are acting like it's nothing. The people that know this are taking it seriously and are working towards dealing with it.

 

[TheSlamma]

oh no 0.00000060606% of the US is infected!!!

 

[squarecut1]

I'm actually quite surprised that being around for quite some time, Ebola has managed to stay contained for this long. I always wondered what's stopping someone who isn't symptomatic from flying out of Africa and then being diagnosed later.

This actually kinda freaks me out. Like what if suicidal terrorists get the idea to purposefully infect themselves and then find a way to smuggle into the US and simply roam the streets of say NYC and just interact with everyone and everything.

Watch a lot of tv shows or movies or Fox news?

 

[Imp]

I'm actually quite surprised that being around for quite some time, Ebola has managed to stay contained for this long. I always wondered what's stopping someone who isn't symptomatic from flying out of Africa and then being diagnosed later.

This actually kinda freaks me out. Like what if suicidal terrorists get the idea to purposefully infect themselves and then find a way to smuggle into the US and simply roam the streets of say NYC and just interact with everyone and everything.

Probably because a lot of them are too poor to afford a plane ticket.

... Okay.

 

[darkswordsman17]

that's a waste of time and would fall squarely in the category of "security theater".

The incubation period is so long that people with the virus can travel all over the planet from country to country before traveling to the US.

The 5 airport containment plan is a joke and is made to make everyone feel warm and fuzzy inside. Furthermore even with checks at every airport in the World, you would expect infected people to almost never be detected because the odds of symptoms during the short window of time that you're traveling are small (long incubation time once again).

The only way to contain this in Africa is to physically contain the carriers in Africa. Let the aide go in, let aide workers go in, shut down airports, border checkpoints, ports etc. This will NEVER happen because African natural resources are worth billions (trillions?) to western business interests (especially the tech industry). This is a tech forum, so I'm assuming people know this already.

As to the nurse getting sick, it's a tragedy and it is very sad that it has happened but hopefully something good can come out of this, a wake up call.

The incubation period can be fairly long but the actual time they can spread it is much shorter and only occurs once symptoms show up. Is it really that difficult for some of you to realize maybe take precautions around sick people? In general, I tend to keep other people's body fluids off/out of me, and if they're visibly sick, that goes orders of magnitude higher. Weirdly I tend to not get sick unless it's because I end up around some asshole that is sick but keeps forcing their presence around other people (and also being asshole like not covering their mouths when they cough or other things to try and limit themselves infecting others).

Do you understand the logistics it would take to do that? Has nothing at all to do with the value of African resources and everything to do with the fact that African countries can't actually accomplish that and trying to do it will likely just lead to worse problems. It's more that the African countries don't have the resources to fight this well (much like the multitude of other diseases that they're trying to deal with as well, diseases that kill more than half a million people in Africa every year). The best thing is to spread knowledge and awareness of the disease, setup treatment facilities, and work to fight the disease head on. Which is exactly what they've been doing. Yes there's been issues and Africa needs help to fight it, but some of you need to realize the actual situation and stop buying into the shit for brains fearmongering that certain people really want to try to push.

 

[Paratus]

How does one not stop air traffic? Do these village people possess a fleet of 737s we don't know about?

Shut down border crossings and ports.

Do you think this is rocket science? They can mitigate the vast majority of international travel very quickly.

Who is going to shut down these airports and border crossings? Are you expecting the local governments to do it?

Or are you expecting the US to invade and force the crossings and airports closed.

If it's the second, how do you suppose that the U.S. invading 3 sovereign countries and forcibly detaining Europeans, Russians, Asians, etc in an outbreak is not going to cause panic and global chaos.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Here's a scary thing, there are parts of the US where the water supply is not even in an enclosed tower, but rather a completely open to air reservoir. There was an article a while back about someone caught peeing in there and they had to empty it out. These water supplies shoudl be in sealed water towers, but for some reason, arn't and anybody can pee or poop in them including animals.

A terrorist could fairly easily drop some ebola infected water in there. Heck it could be done with a drone from a decent distance.

Since it takes a while for ebola to show up as a symptom all the people who get infected would be traveling between states and such and it would spread like wildfire simply from contaminating a single water supply.

 

[Dari]

So if people have survived and built an immunity to this virus, why can they take that patient and create a vaccine for it?

Maybe I watch to many zombie movies. :hmm:

You can survive ebola in the wild. But the only solution i've seen is when the blood of the survivors are given to those infected. It usually works. However, it's only been done in Africa and as a last resort.

 

[Paratus]

Here's a scary thing, there are parts of the US where the water supply is not even in an enclosed tower, but rather a completely open to air reservoir. There was an article a while back about someone caught peeing in there and they had to empty it out. These water supplies shoudl be in sealed water towers, but for some reason, arn't and anybody can pee or poop in them including animals.

A terrorist could fairly easily drop some ebola infected water in there. Heck it could be done with a drone from a decent distance.

Since it takes a while for ebola to show up as a symptom all the people who get infected would be traveling between states and such and it would spread like wildfire simply from contaminating a single water supply.

Can ebola survive in exposed bodies of water.
Can it survive water treatment?

Maybe find out the answers before trying to write the next Tom Clancy novel?