Saudi Arabia Ok's Israeli strike on Iran

[Noobtastic]

Saudi Arabia has conducted tests to stand down its air defences to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, The Times can reveal.
In the week that the UN Security Council imposed a new round of sanctions on Tehran, defence sources in the Gulf say that Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a bombing run on Iran. To ensure the Israeli bombers pass unmolested, Riyadh has carried out tests to make certain its own jets are not scrambled and missile defence systems not activated. Once the Israelis are through, the kingdom’s air defences will return to full alert.
“The Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way,” said a US defence source in the area. “They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren’t scrambled and no one gets shot down. This has all been done with the agreement of the [US] State Department.”
Sources in Saudi Arabia say it is common knowledge within defence circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch the raid. Despite the tension between the two governments, they share a mutual loathing of the regime in Tehran and a common fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “We all know this. We will let them [the Israelis] through and see nothing,” said one.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.ece

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?ID=178190

HILARIOUS!

For those who don't remember - Iran made a pact with Israel that it would allow IAF planes to land and re-fuel in Tehran airforce base if it needed a stop-over to bomb Iraq's nuclear facilities.

And now Saudi Arabia, an historic enemy - will do just as Iran did.

The Shia-sunni split has killed millions during the last century..it doesn't surprise me the Arabs have a morbid fear of a nuclear Iran.

 

[Narmer]

I read somewhere that Shi'ites are hated more than Jews in the Muslim world. We'll see how true this is should this occur.

 

[StageLeft]

Last year it was posted that Saudi had blessed Israel using its air space to hit Iran. This is more of the same. I'd say it's a done-deal that should they attack they'll go over Saudi air space and that's that. And it's a straight shot to Iran, so air space concerns are moot.

This goes beyond tacit and is a blessing for an attack. Iran would then have two options: 1) Do nothing but complain and bitch or 2) counter-attack. They'd have to attack Saudi, realistically, for being complicit as Israel is a further target and far more fortified with a better military. I presume Saudi realizes they risk a confrontation with Iran over this, though safe to say they must have assurances from Israel that they won't be left to their own devices, though they are on good relations with the US as well so they'll get US backing as well, should Iran counter.

I personally think that if a strike happens (and I still give it less than 50&#37 that Iran has no reasonable response. There's nothing they can do basically but grin and bear it.

 

[Darwin333]

Last year it was posted that Saudi had blessed Israel using its air space to hit Iran. This is more of the same. I'd say it's a done-deal that should they attack they'll go over Saudi air space and that's that. And it's a straight shot to Iran, so air space concerns are moot.

This goes beyond tacit and is a blessing for an attack. Iran would then have two options: 1) Do nothing but complain and bitch or 2) counter-attack. They'd have to attack Saudi, realistically, for being complicit as Israel is a further target and far more fortified with a better military. I presume Saudi realizes they risk a confrontation with Iran over this, though safe to say they must have assurances from Israel that they won't be left to their own devices, though they are on good relations with the US as well so they'll get US backing as well, should Iran counter.

I personally think that if a strike happens (and I still give it less than 50%) that Iran has no reasonable response. There's nothing they can do basically but grin and bear it.

Doesn't really matter how good or bad our relationship is with them. We must protect them in order to protect ourselves from economic collapse. That is the risk you take when you depend on unstable regions to supply your economies lifeblood.

 

[K1052]

The only thing that concerns other Muslim nations more than Israel having the bomb is another Muslim country getting it.

Iran could hit back at Saudi oil assets but that would just open their own resources up retaliation. Given Iran's already limited refinery capacity the Saudi's could literally cripple the country with minimal effort.

 

[Lemon law]

We have gamed this scenario before on Anand tech, but I sure as well would not count on Iran taking it lying down. It would be an act of war by both Israel and Saudi Arabia, the new element added is that now Turkey may be willing to defend Iranian air space, and if the house of Faud is fool enough to allow Israel to use its air space, the house of Faud is extremely unlikely to survive as rulers of Saudi Arabia.

The other thing to note is that one single strike by Israel would do little damage to Iran's deeply buried and widely separated nuclear facilities, they might have some surprise on the first strike, but not the second, third, forth needed strikes.

The only winners in such a scenario would be international terrorism, and the big loser would be the USA.

As for Israel, that would likely spell the end of the Israeli state because not even Uncle Sucker could defend Israel from universal UN condemnation. And that is without Iran doing what it could easily do, block the Persian gulf for a decade while every oil based economy goes into instant depression.

 

[Jhhnn]

More lame Zionist chest-puffing. Neither the US nor the KSA can allow this to happen, so it won't.

I'm sure that the rest of the region has their own concerns wrt Iranian nuclear ambitions, but at the end of the day, none of those govts can afford to be seen as Israeli collaborators from a domestic politics point of view. Very simple.

Rave on, fools.

 

[IamDavid]

More lame Zionist chest-puffing. Neither the US nor the KSA can allow this to happen, so it won't.

I'm sure that the rest of the region has their own concerns wrt Iranian nuclear ambitions, but at the end of the day, none of those govts can afford to be seen as Israeli collaborators from a domestic politics point of view. Very simple.

Rave on, fools.

I agreed with you up until about a month ago. Isreal has now reached a level of protectionism I've never seen before and the US or any other country has little to NO infuence. Isreal will soon attack Iran and all other will stand by and throw fits in the UN which means squat. Isreal will do everything it takes to destroy Iran after it starts becasue they know it'll be there one chance. Not one strike but one war. It'll last as long ans it takes.

It will not spread, it will not make anything any worse than it already is.... Wish it would spread myself but it won't.

 

[Freshgeardude]

We have gamed this scenario before on Anand tech, but I sure as well would not count on Iran taking it lying down. It would be an act of war by both Israel and Saudi Arabia, the new element added is that now Turkey may be willing to defend Iranian air space, and if the house of Faud is fool enough to allow Israel to use its air space, the house of Faud is extremely unlikely to survive as rulers of Saudi Arabia.

The other thing to note is that one single strike by Israel would do little damage to Iran's deeply buried and widely separated nuclear facilities, they might have some surprise on the first strike, but not the second, third, forth needed strikes.

The only winners in such a scenario would be international terrorism, and the big loser would be the USA.

As for Israel, that would likely spell the end of the Israeli state because not even Uncle Sucker could defend Israel from universal UN condemnation. And that is without Iran doing what it could easily do, block the Persian gulf for a decade while every oil based economy goes into instant depression.

first of all, the US isnt going to sit back on the issue. They will know when Israel will strike. Secondly, IF iran is attacked, Israel will go all out, in one strike. Thirdly, Iran either will have to face Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the US, something it is no where nearly able to deal with.

Once Saudi Arabia will get dragged into the war, the US will be forced to join, regardless if it was already in it to protect israel, which 99999/10000 times over it will.

You seem to think that Iran has some powerful navy that it can block the persian gulf for a decade. the SECOND they even attempt that, the WHOLE world will stop them. Not just the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, but the EU, Russia, Australia, and more. Iran will get roflcopterowned if it even attempted that.


Lastly, Israel isnt going to strike unless it feels the UN COMPLETELY failed in diplomacy and the rest of the world will try to ignore a nuclear Iran, which as it stands will never happen.

 

[Noobtastic]

I'm sure that the rest of the region has their own concerns wrt Iranian nuclear ambitions, but at the end of the day, none of those govts can afford to be seen as Israeli collaborators from a domestic politics point of view. Very simple

The Arab world doesn't give a damn about Israel. Israel protected Yemeni rebels during the egyptian invasion. Israel protected Jordan when Syria was about to invade it.

And now Israel will take care of a problem we started. Saudi Arabia has been bankrolling Pakistani's nuclear program for precisely situations like these.

Iran won't target USA or Saudi bases because that would guarantee its destruction. But it would probably unleash Hamas and Hezbollah, and hope the fallout from that conflict (civilian casualties) will make the UN isolate Israel.

 

[Lemon law]

As usual, FreshGearDude does not understand, its not Iran's navy that makes it a power, its Iran's home grown ability to manufacture high quality rockets that are designed to take out invaders. We just saw a small sample of what Iranian weapons did in the Hands of Hezbollah, taking out state of the arts Israeli battle tanks while Israeli tried to saturation bomb Hezbollah with little effect. If we do not think Iran has shore to ship missiles that will take out any oil tanker willing to make the attempt of running the Persian gulf, from any spot along the hundreds of mile Coast line Iran has, you are nuttier than a fruitcake. Nor does Iran have to do any of the heavy lifting, all they need to do is flood the zone with their stockpiled weapons, and every rag tag terrorists group
in the mid-east will be transformed from the hunted into the hunters. Not long after the first Israeli bomb falls, Saudi tanker loading facilities will be flaming wrecks that will take years to repair, it will take a few weeks longer before Iraqi and Taliban insurgents make the US occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan untenable, and well armed terrorists will be attacking Israel from every point on the compass.

Still feel as froggie yet?

As for the Muslim Sunni Shite split, its not that big of a deal anywhere except Saudi Arabia. Sunni Saudi Arabia has lived side by side peacefully with Shite Iran for more than a thousand years. Its only the genius of GWB and his insistence on democracy that suddenly isolates Sunni Saudi Arabia when Shia Iran and Shia Iraq combined form a Shia curtain that was never there before land isolating Saudi Arabia from the rest of the Arab world.

 

[PJABBER]

Nor does Iran have to do any of the heavy lifting, all they need to do is flood the zone with their stockpiled weapons, and every rag tag terrorists group
in the mid-east will be transformed from the hunted into the hunters. Not long after the first Israeli bomb falls, Saudi tanker loading facilities will be flaming wrecks that will take years to repair, it will take a few weeks longer before Iraqi and Taliban insurgents make the US occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan untenable, and well armed terrorists will be attacking Israel from every point on the compass.

Cool story, bro! :thumbsup:

Not likely to go that way, but it may.

The only thing you don't cover is how the West and the rest of the Gulf States, even China, are likely to respond. Will they roll over and play dead as you expect? Or will they respond with some serious ass kickin'?

Therein lies the gamble for Iran and their buddies Hamass and Hizbooloh. May not be much of a gamble for your suicide prone compadres, they want to welcome the Mahdi the sooner the better, but others may be looking forward to finally resolving the Iranian bully problem once and for all. And they might well come in with not only four or five carrier groups worth of flavoring but enough resources to take care of things up close and personal, including Iranian leadership decapitation strikes and something more decisive than a war of attrition.

We are well overdue for a Mid-East war. The outcome can't be entirely predicted, but I doubt that Iran will be coming out anywhere near being winners on any count.

 

[nageov3t]

Israel has wanted to bomb Iran for awhile and, though you won't find many liberals admitting to it, it was the war mongering GW Bush that held them back.

we could be entering into dangerous territory if Israel no longer feels like the US has its back, in which case it may act with or without our blessing.

 

[theeedude]

Cool story, bro! :thumbsup:

Not likely to go that way, but it may.

The only thing you don't cover is how the West and the rest of the Gulf States, even China, are likely to respond. Will they roll over and play dead as you expect? Or will they respond with some serious ass kickin'?

Therein lies the gamble for Iran and their buddies Hamass and Hizbooloh. May not be much of a gamble for your suicide prone compadres, they want to welcome the Mahdi the sooner the better, but others may be looking forward to finally resolving the Iranian bully problem once and for all. And they might well come in with not only four or five carrier groups worth of flavoring but enough resources to take care of things up close and personal, including Iranian leadership decapitation strikes and something more decisive than a war of attrition.

We are well overdue for a Mid-East war. The outcome can't be entirely predicted, but I doubt that Iran will be coming out anywhere near being winners on any count.

Wasn't Iraq war supposed to be decisive with some decapitating strikes too?

 

[nageov3t]

Wasn't Iraq war supposed to be decisive with some decapitating strikes too?

there's a difference between a ground invasion, occupation, and nation building exercise versus disabling a rival country's military.

 

[cubeless]

the real question is "will a real, good old fashioned 'who gives a fuck about the civilians?' war ever be fought again?"... when they stop worrying about cnn it's going to get really messy...

 

[TehMac]

Doesn't really matter how good or bad our relationship is with them. We must protect them in order to protect ourselves from economic collapse. That is the risk you take when you depend on unstable regions to supply your economies lifeblood.

You realize that oil reaches America one way or another, right? It doesn't matter if we buy it from the French, Chinese, or Arabs, oil gets to our shores.


The real question is cost, and the cost American consumers are willing to accept before private companies take notice and begin to innovate technologies that are more than just fashion statements angsty performers in Hollywood buy.

 

[Red Dawn]

the real question is "will a real, good old fashioned 'who gives a fuck about the civilians?' war ever be fought again?"... when they stop worrying about cnn it's going to get really messy...

You seem the kind of guy that'd be for all out blood letting, as long as it's someone else doing it.

 

[PJABBER]

Wasn't Iraq war supposed to be decisive with some decapitating strikes too?

Yup. But I rather think the Israelis are going to be somewhat better at identifying appropriate targets.

And, unlike Iraq, I don't see anyone getting ready for a land invasion, much less an occupation of Iran. Unless the Iranians decide to broaden the scope of war. Then all bets are off.

An attack on Iran will likely parallel the very initial attacks against Iraq, with very little use of ground forces outside of special operations teams. Think cruise missiles and some bombing by aircraft. But, we can also expect they will be a bit more effective seeing who it is that will be doing the attacking. Just a guess on my part.

Let's consider just how long it took to effectively take down the Iraqi military before we got bogged down with keeping the peace. It is not going to go this way but see if you can identify where things went right and where things went wrong.

Remember, no one is planning to move in and occupy Iran, at least at the moment. Though there ARE quite a few American and allied troops surrounding Iran if need be. Just sayin'. ()

IRAQ WAR TIMELINE

 

[Jhhnn]

The Arab world doesn't give a damn about Israel. Israel protected Yemeni rebels during the egyptian invasion. Israel protected Jordan when Syria was about to invade it.

And now Israel will take care of a problem we started. Saudi Arabia has been bankrolling Pakistani's nuclear program for precisely situations like these.

Iran won't target USA or Saudi bases because that would guarantee its destruction. But it would probably unleash Hamas and Hezbollah, and hope the fallout from that conflict (civilian casualties) will make the UN isolate Israel.

Gawd, I just adore the way you make assertions as fact, then run away when challenged to support them with credible sources, or simply defy anybody who asks for something more than mere assertion to prove otherwise.

You're a troll's troll, a festering chancre on any message board unfortunate enough to attract your attention...

Just my opinion, of course.

The first consequence of any attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would be the ejection of the IAEA and formal renunciation of the NPT by Iran. If they aren't pursuing nuclear weapons now, they certainly will be afterwards. That's a complete no-brainer, even for an Israeli stooge.

Along with that, they have endless opportunities to cause their immediate neighbors, the US, and the Israelis an enormous amount of difficulty in ways ranging from the obvious to subtle and sublime.

If they actively support the Taliban, then the pacification of the Kandahar region in Afghanistan becomes enormously more difficult, virtually impossible, and maintaining the peace in southern Iraq equally so. the Iranians are also on very good terms with the Kurds in northern Iraq, who view that friendship as a counter to the Turks and the arab Iraqis...

Pakistan attack Iran? Get real. The Iranians obtained their nuclear technology from Pakistan, and enjoy what seem to be fairly cordial relations. If anything, Pakistanis may well topple their own none too popular govt, deny US access to Afghanistan if we're seen to back up an Israeli attack against Iran.

KSA? Iran can easily arm Saudi dissidents, enable them to attempt a coup against the monarchy, raise hell in general.

They can also really, really step up support for Hezbollah via Syria, and there's damned little Israel can do about it.

That's just some of their more subtle options.

Anybody who thinks such an attack won't solidify support for the Iranians' current hard line govt is a complete and utter fool. They have their own patriots, proved their courage and fortitude when they took enormous casualties, ground down the Iraqi invaders over a 10 year war. They'd have ultimately crushed the Iraqis, if they'd had a mind to and if the West hadn't made it clear it would cost the Iranians dearly to do so.

The biggest problem in all this is that the Israelis might actually end up believing their own bullshit, attempt such an attack. I don't think they're that stupid- not even the Bushistas were stupid enough to support such a notion, and they were incredibly stupid when it came to the Mideast...

 

[Darwin333]

As usual, FreshGearDude does not understand, its not Iran's navy that makes it a power, its Iran's home grown ability to manufacture high quality rockets that are designed to take out invaders. We just saw a small sample of what Iranian weapons did in the Hands of Hezbollah, taking out state of the arts Israeli battle tanks while Israeli tried to saturation bomb Hezbollah with little effect. If we do not think Iran has shore to ship missiles that will take out any oil tanker willing to make the attempt of running the Persian gulf, from any spot along the hundreds of mile Coast line Iran has, you are nuttier than a fruitcake. Nor does Iran have to do any of the heavy lifting, all they need to do is flood the zone with their stockpiled weapons, and every rag tag terrorists group
in the mid-east will be transformed from the hunted into the hunters. Not long after the first Israeli bomb falls, Saudi tanker loading facilities will be flaming wrecks that will take years to repair, it will take a few weeks longer before Iraqi and Taliban insurgents make the US occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan untenable, and well armed terrorists will be attacking Israel from every point on the compass.

Still feel as froggie yet?

As for the Muslim Sunni Shite split, its not that big of a deal anywhere except Saudi Arabia. Sunni Saudi Arabia has lived side by side peacefully with Shite Iran for more than a thousand years. Its only the genius of GWB and his insistence on democracy that suddenly isolates Sunni Saudi Arabia when Shia Iran and Shia Iraq combined form a Shia curtain that was never there before land isolating Saudi Arabia from the rest of the Arab world.

Which is exactly why, should such a scenario happen, the United States would be forced to go to war with Iran. I wonder if some of the posters here will continue to think its such a great idea to "use up everyone elses oil first" when we are forced into another war to ensure that our economy isn't ruined in a way that would make the "Great Recession" look like a picnic. Makes ya feel all warm and fuzzy knowing that our national security and our economy are reliant on Israel, SA, Iran and a bunch of other countries not doing anything stupid (and they have such a great history of not doing stupid shit).

Thats oil that we can't replace boys and girls. It is the lifeblood of our economy and regardless of the what and why, we will protect it with the full might of our military. Iran starts lobbing missiles at tankers in the Persian Gulf and even Obama will order bombing the shit out of everything in Iran that slightly resembles a missile site. He simply won't have a choice in the matter. Sucks doesn't it?

 

[theeedude]

Yup. But I rather think the Israelis are going to be somewhat better at identifying appropriate targets.

And, unlike Iraq, I don't see anyone getting ready for a land invasion, much less an occupation of Iran. Unless the Iranians decide to broaden the scope of war. Then all bets are off.

That is exactly what they will do, destabilize Iraq. Assuming anything else is simply reckless. All bets are off from the beginning.

 

[Darwin333]

You realize that oil reaches America one way or another, right? It doesn't matter if we buy it from the French, Chinese, or Arabs, oil gets to our shores.


The real question is cost, and the cost American consumers are willing to accept before private companies take notice and begin to innovate technologies that are more than just fashion statements angsty performers in Hollywood buy.

lol, no it doesn't. See, most nations are very concerned with their economic and national security and they realize they need energy for both of those. So they set up long term deals with other countries to purchase their excess oil. Deals much like the one we currently have with Saudi Arabia. You think China is going to crush its own economy and willingly give up its own supply? Hell, the act of cutting off the Persian Gulf alone would fuck a lot of countries supply. There will be a ton of competition for the very tiny amount that isn't already sold and it wouldn't make a dent in replacing what SA currently supplies us with.

I can just see it now "Uhh China, can we borrow a ton of money so that we can outbid you on oil that you need as well?"

 

[Lemon law]

Where does this Darwin delusion come from in saying, "Which is exactly why, should such a scenario happen, the United States would be forced to go to war with Iran."

Are you nuts, Israeli undeniably can start it, but why should the USA back Israel thereafter?

The USA would be far wiser to stay neutral and let the rest of the world take apart Israel brick by brick.

 

[Darwin333]

Where does this Darwin delusion come from in saying, "Which is exactly why, should such a scenario happen, the United States would be forced to go to war with Iran."

Are you nuts, Israeli undeniably can start it, but why should the USA back Israel thereafter?

The USA would be far wiser to stay neutral and let the rest of the world take apart Israel brick by brick.

You obviously didn't read the rest of my post.

Allowing Saudi Arabia's oil exports to be cut off would plunge us into a depression. Period.