Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,174
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What a sight to see where so many of the free democracies of the world are standing tall with Ukraine in their effort to defend their independence from a nation.....no, from ONE MAN that is seeking to politically and physically obliterate their nation from the face of the earth so as to reap the ill-begotten rewards of the genocidal war he is actively committing there.

China, take heed.
If you really wanted to drive that point home then first we make sure Ukraine wins and then we novichok Putin and say “We did it”.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,574
8,026
136
Estonia seems to have the most intel on Russia or at least seems to be the most knowledgeable about how the kremlin function. Anyway it would be a pleasant surprise and best for all if Russia would give up this war.

The Baltics don't fuck around.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,024
32,996
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In which the SecDef points out that German demands of "parity" regarding their tank refusal is nonsense because we are and will provide Ukraine with systems and munitions Germany does not make/stock.

Relatedly apparently Norway and Finland are talking with Poland about supplying Leopards without German consent. For the diplomatically minded when enough countries in your own bloc are about to rip up their contracts you've probably overstepped the mark. It's not like Germany also didn't manage to alienate like the entirety of Southern Europe in the financial crisis so they are kinds out on there own here.

 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,548
9,907
136
i really don't understand germany's position here, unless they are that dependent on russian gas. that's the only reason i can fathom them slow-walking this.

"but they'll escalate" - they fucking invaded a country. that's escalation on its own. what the F more do you need?
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,024
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i really don't understand germany's position here, unless they are that dependent on russian gas. that's the only reason i can fathom them slow-walking this.

"but they'll escalate" - they fucking invaded a country. that's escalation on its own. what the F more do you need?

Direct exports were entirely halted afaik and the Germans have poured billions into other sources of supply.

This looks like mostly an internal battle within SPD about armor while the other political factions favor transfers. There is no real difference if Russians are killed by a PzH 2000, a DM22 anti tank mine, a MARS II launcher, or a Leopard tank. Some theorizing is going on that transfers of Leopard 2s would give the US an opening into the European armor market which Germany has dominated. Though with Poland already going with M1s and K2s plus other nations kicking their tracks that market was already under threat without Ukraine due to practically glacial German arms industry production/development. If you want new tanks in the next few years pretty much have to look outside of Europe. Other accusations include that SPD politicians are too in bed with the Russians and/or compromised. Bigger picture the situation is doing major damage to Berlin's reputation on multiple fronts which they seem ignorant or dismissive of.
 

borosp1

Senior member
Apr 12, 2003
441
352
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Latvia's foreign minister on Monday said he had told Russia's ambassador to Riga to leave the country by Feb. 24, lowering diplomatic ties with Moscow in an act of solidarity with Estonia.

Russia said on Monday it was downgrading diplomatic relations with NATO member Estonia, accusing it of "total Russophobia," and Tallinn responded by telling Moscow's envoy to the Baltic nation to leave.

 
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brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
26,074
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Latvia's foreign minister on Monday said he had told Russia's ambassador to Riga to leave the country by Feb. 24, lowering diplomatic ties with Moscow in an act of solidarity with Estonia.

Russia said on Monday it was downgrading diplomatic relations with NATO member Estonia, accusing it of "total Russophobia," and Tallinn responded by telling Moscow's envoy to the Baltic nation to leave.

I wish it was acceptable in international diplomacy to to use the term "Get bent" instead of "leave".
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,574
8,026
136
Latvia's foreign minister on Monday said he had told Russia's ambassador to Riga to leave the country by Feb. 24, lowering diplomatic ties with Moscow in an act of solidarity with Estonia.

Russia said on Monday it was downgrading diplomatic relations with NATO member Estonia, accusing it of "total Russophobia," and Tallinn responded by telling Moscow's envoy to the Baltic nation to leave.


Good on Latvia. If everyone played this game like the Baltics do, it'd already be over.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,426
7,485
136
By Erdogan 's words, Turkey is upset that Sweden is neither Islamic nor bowing to Islamic rule.
Still just a ploy to buy concessions? Maybe... but Turkey's decades long slide into Islamic fundamentalism bodes ill for our ability to count them as Ally. We need them, but we are having a great deal of trouble living with them. If they make it difficult to secure NATO from Russia, we would no longer be able to play nice.

Turkey’s president says no support for Sweden’s NATO bid
“So you will let terror organizations run wild on your avenues and streets and then expect our support for getting into NATO. That’s not happening,” Erdogan said, referring to Sweden and Finland’s accession bids for the military alliance. He said if Sweden won’t show respect to NATO-member Turkey or Muslims, then “they won’t see any support from us on the NATO issue.”
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,430
7,849
136
By Erdogan 's words, Turkey is upset that Sweden is neither Islamic nor bowing to Islamic rule.
Still just a ploy to buy concessions? Maybe... but Turkey's decades long slide into Islamic fundamentalism bodes ill for our ability to count them as Ally. We need them, but we are having a great deal of trouble living with them. If they make it difficult to secure NATO from Russia, we would no longer be able to play nice.

Turkey’s president says no support for Sweden’s NATO bid
“So you will let terror organizations run wild on your avenues and streets and then expect our support for getting into NATO. That’s not happening,” Erdogan said, referring to Sweden and Finland’s accession bids for the military alliance. He said if Sweden won’t show respect to NATO-member Turkey or Muslims, then “they won’t see any support from us on the NATO issue.”
He's got the satisfy his base like (nearly) every other leader in the world.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,426
7,485
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He's got the satisfy his base like (nearly) every other leader in the world.

True, like so many others Turkey has cultivated the crazy.
Unfortunately that means a weaker NATO and some real difficult give and take ahead.
 

Zor Prime

Senior member
Nov 7, 1999
988
560
136
i really don't understand germany's position here, unless they are that dependent on russian gas. that's the only reason i can fathom them slow-walking this.

"but they'll escalate" - they fucking invaded a country. that's escalation on its own. what the F more do you need?
But they didn't invade their country. And the gas thing is a definite issue, my family in Germany are having their most expensive winter to date.

Germany has no nuclear deterrent outside of NATO. Alliances are great and all but alliances are reactive regarding time if there's a first strike. Maybe we should give Germany nukes or get them to start a nuclear weapons program to make them feel more inclined to press the go button on those tanks.

In the end it's all very political, Germany has no desire for confrontation. Having their tanks rolling around killing Russians completely removes them from their happy place and turns their reality upside down on them. There are many Germans who want good relations with Russia, even if Russia is behaving badly (which, obviously it is.) Relations with Russia is far more important than with Ukraine to Germany.

If Leopards get sent to Germany and they signed off on it you can bet the bank that it's going to be perilous to the political careers of many German politicians. One thing I haven't seen noted in this thread is that there are a good deal of people in Germany who like Russia more than they do the United States. Germany and the USA are business partners and it stops right there -- there isn't any love involved unlike Britain and France with the USA.

Germany might give the go signal, but going forward the Germany that we know today will forever be changed. We are asking an entire people to change themselves because of something we want them to do, take that into account.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,174
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By Erdogan 's words, Turkey is upset that Sweden is neither Islamic nor bowing to Islamic rule.
Still just a ploy to buy concessions? Maybe... but Turkey's decades long slide into Islamic fundamentalism bodes ill for our ability to count them as Ally. We need them, but we are having a great deal of trouble living with them. If they make it difficult to secure NATO from Russia, we would no longer be able to play nice.

Turkey’s president says no support for Sweden’s NATO bid
“So you will let terror organizations run wild on your avenues and streets and then expect our support for getting into NATO. That’s not happening,” Erdogan said, referring to Sweden and Finland’s accession bids for the military alliance. He said if Sweden won’t show respect to NATO-member Turkey or Muslims, then “they won’t see any support from us on the NATO issue.”
The guy that Erdogan is using as a puppet here, the guy burning holy books in the streets of sweden, is in fact Danish and is in fact mentally handicapped. There is even more going on with this guy, think pedo… He is a freak. Is not representative of anything.
 
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borosp1

Senior member
Apr 12, 2003
441
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In a surprise to absolute no one, China is being accused of supplying Russians with materials for supporting their war in Ukraine.

"The Biden administration has confronted China’s government with evidence that suggests some Chinese state-owned companies may be providing assistance for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, as it tries to ascertain if Beijing is aware of those activities, according to people familiar with the matter.

The people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, declined to detail the support except to say that it consists of non-lethal military and economic assistance that stops short of wholesale evasion of the sanctions regime the US and its allies imposed after Russian forces invaded Ukraine."

 
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Zor Prime

Senior member
Nov 7, 1999
988
560
136
In a surprise to absolute no one, China is being accused of supplying Russians with materials for supporting their war in Ukraine.

"The Biden administration has confronted China’s government with evidence that suggests some Chinese state-owned companies may be providing assistance for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, as it tries to ascertain if Beijing is aware of those activities, according to people familiar with the matter.

The people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, declined to detail the support except to say that it consists of non-lethal military and economic assistance that stops short of wholesale evasion of the sanctions regime the US and its allies imposed after Russian forces invaded Ukraine."

No surprise at all. I said in this thread going on a year ago China will be supplying Russia when people were saying Russia is going to run out of stuff. China might not be supplying actual assembled items but components and materials you can bet your ass they are to some degree. There's not much else but upside for China to do so because in the end nobody is going to do anything about it other than blow smoke and hoot and holler.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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No surprise at all. I said in this thread going on a year ago China will be supplying Russia when people were saying Russia is going to run out of stuff. China might not be supplying actual assembled items but components and materials you can bet your ass they are to some degree. There's not much else but upside for China to do so because in the end nobody is going to do anything about it other than blow smoke and hoot and holler.

Russia has in some areas run out of stuff or what they can get from China is of inferior quality to the European imports they have to replace. "Modern" Russian military equipment was chocked full of French, British, German equipment while they pretended to make it all themselves. This is why they've largely had to revert to reconditioning/building older and simpler designs to replenish losses. Cutting corners wherever they can.

Worse yet for Russia they are now beholden to Chinese goodwill (which I think everybody knows doesn't come free) instead of a largely uncomplicated trade relationship with the west.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,214
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Seems like a waste when Ukraine has GMLRS.

A GMLRS only costs $40k, and is a lot harder to stop then an large RC car which has its own costs.


Nahh. IEDs typically have a pretty good cost to damage ratio. A trunk full of old Russian mines, some block charges, all lovingly topped with det cord? Couple thou. Chechens making do is what they do. In the 90s those guys had no help whatsoever, were floating civilian RPG teams across rivers in cheap innertubes so they could blow up Russians. I bet that smarter martyr mobile would be good for at least a couple Yuris, maybe a lot.

I think you are thinking of GLSDBs, which are $40k a shot. GMLRS is about $225k per, depending on the version and contract. It isn't an all aspect attack weapon like GLSDBs, but it does travel faster and with a bigger warhead, also is very hard to intercept.
 
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