Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[fskimospy]

if you read my post, it wasnt about taking UKR oil but about preventing UKR from selling their oil to europe.

I did read your post and directly responded to it. I thought the idea that Ukraine might try to do something with those resources was obvious.

Again, any articles to this effect, especially ones with any empirical evaluation of the effect of Ukraine oil exportation on oil prices? My bet is the economic argument makes basically zero sense.

 

[gorobei]

I did read your post and directly responded to it. I thought the idea that Ukraine might try to do something with those resources was obvious.

Again, any articles to this effect, especially ones with any empirical evaluation of the effect of Ukraine oil exportation on oil prices? My bet is the economic argument makes basically zero sense.

literally the first result of search

As Russia Closes In On Crimea's Energy Resources, What Is Next For Ukraine?

Following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin moved aggressively to seize and reappropriate Ukranian offshore oil and gas operations in the Black Sea. Ukraine's loss of these valuable resources is a major setback to a country in an already perilous economic and security position.

www.forbes.com

In Taking Crimea, Putin Gains a Sea of Fuel Reserves (Published 2014)

Russia acquired not just a peninsula, but a maritime zone and the rights to tap its seabed for oil and gas reserves potentially worth trillions of dollars.

www.nytimes.com

the crimea annexation was about getting a win to show the russian public, the oil/gas outcomes was just a bonus cherry. this was relevant in 2014, but oil/gas has nothing to do with the 2022 invasion.



edit: one other thing was back in 2014 i think there was the issue of one of the pipelines from ru to EU ran through UKR. although the sevastopol navy base lease was also part of it.

 

[fskimospy]

literally the first result of search

As Russia Closes In On Crimea's Energy Resources, What Is Next For Ukraine?

Following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin moved aggressively to seize and reappropriate Ukranian offshore oil and gas operations in the Black Sea. Ukraine's loss of these valuable resources is a major setback to a country in an already perilous economic and security position.

www.forbes.com

In Taking Crimea, Putin Gains a Sea of Fuel Reserves (Published 2014)

Russia acquired not just a peninsula, but a maritime zone and the rights to tap its seabed for oil and gas reserves potentially worth trillions of dollars.

www.nytimes.com

the crimea annexation was about getting a win to show the russian public, the oil/gas outcomes was just a bonus cherry. this was relevant in 2014, but oil/gas has nothing to do with the 2022 invasion.

edit: one other thing was back in 2014 i think there was the issue of one of the pipelines from ru to EU ran through UKR. although the sevastopol navy base lease was also part of it.

Yes, I am also of the opinion that capturing Ukraine's natural gas resources had nothing to do with the 2022 invasion.

Also, if you're saying that articles say X it is perfectly reasonable for someone to ask you what articles you are referencing.

 

[pmv]

Uh...huh...just an accidental coincidence. Sure.

(Not strictly Ukraine news, but it does indirectly involve Russians...)

Air Force claims 'no intent by the pilots' to draw sky penis near Russian base in Syria

An Air Force aerial tanker’s flight pattern may have looked like a penis, but that was not intended, officials said.

taskandpurpose.com

 

[Puffnstuff]

Am I the only person who thinks that Ukraine should use the drones and attack Russian energy infrastructure? Time for an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth and I'd love to see Moscow go dark this winter.

 

[K1052]

Am I the only person who thinks that Ukraine should use the drones and attack Russian energy infrastructure? Time for an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth and I'd love to see Moscow go dark this winter.

Ukraine has been attacking power stations and electrical substations in Belgorod oblast in retaliation. Military targets deeper in Russia are juicer targets since they've shifted too much AD gear to the war zone and they also tend to explode when struck.

 

[you2]

Ukraine conflict: Kyiv teases new long-range response to Russian ‘suicide drone' attacks

The Ukrainian government has developed a long-range strike capability that it is close to employing in response to Russian attacks using Iranian-sourced loitering...

www.janes.com

Russia is really playing with fire with the drone crap since (i suspect) they have little defense against them and a whole lot more to lose.... Their only wild card is the 'nuclear' threat in response to such action. I'd like to see Ukraine destroy a few hundred Russian long range bombers - wouldn't you...

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

They claim the drones were intercepted and shot down, the falling debris doing the damage.

"Hours earlier, explosions rocked two air bases deep inside Russia, and the Defense Ministry in Moscow said it had shot down two Ukrainian drones attacking the sites, and that three Russian servicemen were killed by falling debris and four others were wounded."

Russia claims Kyiv hit its air bases, fires more missiles

The Kremlin claims Ukrainian drones have struck two air bases deep inside Russia. Hours later, Russia unleashed another massive missile barrage across Ukraine, striking homes and buildings and killing civilians.

apnews.com

..

 

[RnR_au]

Take salt. But it could be that the mobilisation and exodus has caused havok with Russia's internal food production and supply chains.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599829109336526848

 

[gorobei]

report/interview about gepard operations vs drones. one crewman indicates that they only need 3 rounds to take out a shahed drone, that is from both barrels, total 6 rounds which is still more expensive that the shahed but not by that much. certainly less than the millions of dollars for iads sams. but they definitely need a new source of 35mm ammo.

 

[Indus]

You don't have to like it, but this is how diplomacy, high level diplomacy, works. If you want a bloody, aggressive monster to stop being a monster, you don't call them a monster, you offer them "security guarantees" (within their pre-war borders only, of course) to give them an out to stop being a monster. They then can say to their populace that this is all they wanted in the first place, no matter how much of a bloody fucking lie it is. This is not playground fairness, this is realpolitik.

And, please, I'm not saying this will work, not at all.. I'm saying that this is how the diplomatic process begins. It's an excruciatingly convoluted and internecine process full of cynicism and lies, and it IS how opposing nations deal with each other.

And I am NOT saying Ukraine should cede one inch of territory to Russia in the end. Just remember two things about war. 1. War is hell and 2. War is diplomacy by other means. War cannot go on forever if one side cannot completely vanquish the other. Diplomacy is the end game between nations, ever and always.

But but but..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599850677898866688

 

[Young Grasshopper]

But but but..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599850677898866688

Ill counter with this:

https://thepressunited.com/updates/minsk-deal-was-used-to-buy-time-ukraines-poroshenko/

Petro Poroshenko said the Minsk agreements “meant nothing” and claimed credit for giving Kiev enough time to militarize

Petro Poroshenko has admitted that the 2015 ceasefire in Donbass, which he negotiated with Russia, France and Germany as president of Ukraine, was merely a distraction intended to buy time for Kiev to rebuild its military.

He made the comments in interviews with several news outlets this week, including Germany’s Deutsche Welle television and the Ukrainian branch of the US state-run Radio Free Europe. Poroshenko also defended his record as president between 2014 and 2019.

“We had achieved everything we wanted,” he said of the peace deal. “Our goal was to, first, stop the threat, or at least to delay the war – to secure eight years to restore economic growth and create powerful armed forces.”

So in other words, they had signed a peace agreement with Putin regarding the Donbass, promising to stop shelling eastern Ukraine. They had zero intention of actually bringing peace and instead bomb the fuck out of it and at the same time used the time to rebuild their forces.

It's funny because whenever a potential peace deal is brought up, the warmongers say all it will do is allow Putin to rebuild his forces for another invasion. And yet here was have evidence that it was actually Ukraine who used the agreement to buy time to build up it's forces.

 

[RnR_au]

And yet here was have evidence that it was actually Ukraine who used the agreement to buy time to build up it's forces.

Sounds like it was smart of Ukraine. It was a cease fire agreement. Not a disarmament agreement. Nor a peace treaty recognising any boundaries of the DPR and LPR. And its not like Russia did all its parts of the Minsk agreement anyways.

"Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie', while you are reaching for a rock."

 

[Dave_5k]

Sounds like it was smart of Ukraine. It was a cease fire agreement. Not a disarmament agreement.

"Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie', while you are reaching for a rock."

And even now, Ukraine has not invaded nor claimed one inch of Russian territory, and Ukraine continues to limit its targeting to military targets, unlike Russia which hasn't found a Ukrainian civilian yet they didn't want to steal from, rape, and murder (in any order).

Also of note, is who didn't bother to comply with any terms of either of the Minsk agreement requirements - that would be Russia, ever. Return control of the international Ukraine border to Ukraine, with monitoring from OSCE? Never happened. Ceasefire? Never happened, with vast majority of violations initiated by Russian side. Ukraine passed legislation approving the terms, but Russia blocked implementation by maintaining its military control of Ukrainian land contrary to the agreements, and rejecting all options including UN peacekeepers to give up Putin's military control of the Donbas.

While there was shelling from both sides, independent observers noted some 80% of ceasefire violations came from the Russian side.

Don’t Let Russia Fool You About the Minsk Agreements

The deals reached several years ago are far from perfect, but they nonetheless offer a way to talk to Russia while pressing it not to invade further.

cepa.org

 

[rommelrommel]

Ill counter with this:

https://thepressunited.com/updates/minsk-deal-was-used-to-buy-time-ukraines-poroshenko/

So in other words, they had signed a peace agreement with Putin regarding the Donbass, promising to stop shelling eastern Ukraine. They had zero intention of actually bringing peace and instead bomb the fuck out of it and at the same time used the time to rebuild their forces.

It's funny because whenever a potential peace deal is brought up, the warmongers say all it will do is allow Putin to rebuild his forces for another invasion. And yet here was have evidence that it was actually Ukraine who used the agreement to buy time to build up it's forces.

You’re a fucking idiot.

 

[you2]

You’re a fucking idiot.

He's not an idiot; he is a troll and there is a BIG difference.

 

[brycejones]

You’re a fucking idiot.

That is an insult to idiots.

 

[K1052]

report/interview about gepard operations vs drones. one crewman indicates that they only need 3 rounds to take out a shahed drone, that is from both barrels, total 6 rounds which is still more expensive that the shahed but not by that much. certainly less than the millions of dollars for iads sams. but they definitely need a new source of 35mm ammo.

You only get a quick look at it but the ammo seems to be 35mm HEI made by NAMMO. FAPDS, which I assume the Swiss ammo is, would be better.

 

[rommelrommel]

He's not an idiot; he is a troll and there is a BIG difference.

Ah, but trolling in support of a fascist dictator for nothing other than the dopamine rush of owning the libs also makes you a moron.

 

[Number1]

report/interview about gepard operations vs drones. one crewman indicates that they only need 3 rounds to take out a shahed drone, that is from both barrels, total 6 rounds which is still more expensive that the shahed but not by that much. certainly less than the millions of dollars for iads sams. but they definitely need a new source of 35mm ammo.

Here it is in action, impressive if authentic.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599941153637269505

 

[gorobei]

You only get a quick look at it but the ammo seems to be 35mm HEI made by NAMMO. FAPDS, which I assume the Swiss ammo is, would be better.

i went around the search mystery boxes, the seemingly new fancy toy is the ATOM 35 round. the rods are made up of 152 tungsten pellets that spread into a cone pattern after a small charge goes off. if the AFU are happy with the HEI then it is probably good enough.

https://www.aselsan.com.tr/en/capabilities/land-and-weapon-systems/smart-munition-and-active-protection-systems/atom-35mm-airburst-ammunition

 

[Drach]

i went around the search mystery boxes, the seemingly new fancy toy is the ATOM 35 round. the rods are made up of 152 tungsten pellets that spread into a cone pattern after a small charge goes off. if the AFU are happy with the HEI then it is probably good enough.

https://www.aselsan.com.tr/en/capabilities/land-and-weapon-systems/smart-munition-and-active-protection-systems/atom-35mm-airburst-ammunition

Excelente!

 

[K1052]

i went around the search mystery boxes, the seemingly new fancy toy is the ATOM 35 round. the rods are made up of 152 tungsten pellets that spread into a cone pattern after a small charge goes off. if the AFU are happy with the HEI then it is probably good enough.

https://www.aselsan.com.tr/en/capabilities/land-and-weapon-systems/smart-munition-and-active-protection-systems/atom-35mm-airburst-ammunition

Yeah programmable ammunition is the new hotness. Ukraine would like to have the Swiss made FAPDS rounds in German stocks as it would extend the effective range of the guns by about a kilometer, also NAMMO is probably somewhat limited in what they're able to supply from their line. NAMMO could probably make 35mm FAPDS ammunition but would need the specs from Rheinmetall who may not be eager to share that info.

 

[Shamrock]

Ukraine drone attack hits 2 military bases deep inside Russia

Explosions that struck two military airbases deep inside Russia on Monday were the result of drone attacks launched by Ukraine.

abcnews.go.com

Ukraine has attacked 2 Russian nuclear bases with drones. 150 miles from Moscow.

 

[Indus]

LOL @ Belarus propaganda:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599830636235460609

It's too bad Young Grasshopper isn't headed to Ukraine along with our Russian friends in the US congress.. I'm sure our Ukrainian allies there might want some Kielbasa!