Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Brovane]

There have been some reports that starlink units are working in the east in what were just recently occupied areas. So I'm not sure how much to believe the geo-location blacklisting.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-china-disapproved-sending-starlink-ukraine-2022-10

But recently, FT reported that Ukrainian forces have faced some outages of their Starlink devices on the frontlines in recent weeks. Roman Sinicyn, a co-ordinator at a foundation that donates Starlink systems to the Ukrainian armed forces, told the publication the outages are the result of SpaceX representatives attempting to prevent Russians from using the technology.

From this it seems like SpaceX is trying to prevent Russians from using Star-link units that had been captured from Ukranian forces or the Russians got the units through other means.

Without a more fulsome explanation it's hard to tell if the occupied territories are switched off because of concerns about Russia capturing Starlink units or due to Russian requests. Though it could be both I guess given recent uh proposals from Musk. I suspect that in the future Ukraine won't want to depend on such a mercurial commercial service provider...

It is never a good idea to depend on one service provider for critical needs. Earlier in the war, Russian hackers bricked a bunch of Via-Sat downlink units.

 

[Atari2600]

The fastest, most fatal way down is just the opposite . . . if one side thinks the other will, and decides to strike first.

I'm sure your well aware of the events around Able Archer 83. The Soviets largely thought reagan would. They were presented with a very real scenario of a war footing and an alarm on their early warning system.

Yet here we are today.

To me that was every bit as close to civilisation losing it as the Cuban/Turkish crisis and submarine B59.

It might be worth noting in both cases it was a soviet officer that kept a cool head and saved us all. I'm placing an awful lot of hope that in that regard, if Putin does give the order, they storm the kremlin and put a bullet in him instead.

 

[Leeea]

Putin is normally a very shrewd leader, but he took a huge risk in betting that he could invade Ukraine and keep whatever territory he wanted.

I think Putin is just a mafioso. Nothing more. He never was smart, and all he ever did was lead Russia to poverty out of greed.

This war just stripped the cloths off his image.

Jesus. Could you see the US chipping in on the Twitter deal so Musk will extend Starlink coverage into Russian occupied territory?

I do not believe star link is doing this intentionally.

Without a more fulsome explanation it's hard to tell if the occupied territories are switched off because of concerns about Russia capturing Starlink units or due to Russian requests. Though it could be both I guess given recent uh proposals from Musk. I suspect that in the future Ukraine won't want to depend on such a mercurial commercial service provider...

If I was Russia, I would do my absolute best to jam star link.

 

[Dave_5k]

I have almost zero faith in our missile defense systems TBH. They will fail spectacularly in any "serious" scenario. Might get a hit here or there, but not enough to prevent mass devastation in a real exchange.

Really, they are only even designed to handle a very small number of missiles, not even a fraction of the ammunition is available to deal with a full ICBM launch by even China, much less Russia.

Last look, US had a grand total of 44 ICBM interceptor missiles - in the entire US - and they are not particularly reliable. So no, the US cannot come close to stopping a Russian missile launch.

 

[pcgeek11]

Uh oh.

I need @pcgeek11 and/or @Greenman to let me know what we should do about this?

Are they legal asylum seekers or are they illegal immigrants invading our shores who should be forced to wait outside of our borders?

No you don't.

I will say they probably have just as good or better case for asylum than most coming across our southern border. They are absolutely looking death in the eye.

Hold them until they are vetted and if they pass allow them entry.

 

[pcgeek11]

The Russian sub fleet is a known quantity. How many were built, how many are at sea, etc.


NATO would know if they have all the subs tailed prior. It would be very logical to sink the Russian submarines in response to a nuclear attack on Ukraine, even if a mass 2nd response strike was not planned. NATO would know if they were able to sink the all of the Russian subs beforehand.


Russian subs are just like NATO subs, they need to surface to send a message. Most of the time they are not in communication with Russian command and control. A Russian sub could be sunk and it might be days or weeks before it missed its scheduled check in.

You obviously have no idea about Submarine Warfare. Submarines are not as easy to locate and destroy as you make it seem in your post. Their primary day to day mission is to be not detected. The oceans are very large, the submarines are very small. There are salt layers and temperature inversions and just going ultra quiet.


US Submarines on alert status and covering target areas receive traffic all the time when submerged and underway. Look up Floating Wire Antenna. The mission depends on being able to receive Emergency Launch Orders 24/7. If you cannot for any reason that is considered weapons down time and is a huge No No. These No No's will have to be explained during the patrol debrief. In my 20 years we had no down time on the boats I was on.

FLOATING WIRE ANTENNAS COMMUNICATING WITH A SUBMERGED SUBMARINE - NSL Archive

The concept of a wire antenna for submarines arrived on the Navy’s communication horizon in 1954, the same year as the launching and commissioning of…

archive.navalsubleague.org

 

[Leeea]

You obviously have no idea about Submarine Warfare. Submarines are not as easy to locate and destroy as you make it seem in your post. Their primary day to day mission is to be not detected. The oceans are very large, the submarines are very small.

US Submarines on alert status and covering target areas receive traffic all the time when submerged and underway. Look up Floating Wire Antenna. The mission depends on being able to receive Emergency Launch Orders 24/7. If you cannot for any reason that is considered weapons down time and is a huge No No. These No No's will have to be explained during the patrol debrief. In my 20 years we had no down time on the boats I was on.

Spoiler: hide picture

View attachment 68815

FLOATING WIRE ANTENNAS COMMUNICATING WITH A SUBMERGED SUBMARINE - NSL Archive

The concept of a wire antenna for submarines arrived on the Navy’s communication horizon in 1954, the same year as the launching and commissioning of…

archive.navalsubleague.org

Your post and my post are not contradicting each other.


I am not referring to sending messages to subs, both sides have ELF systems for that.


I am referring to receiving messages from subs. Subs rarely send messages, it is contrary to their mission.


to assist with your lack of reading comprehension, I will quote myself:

Russian subs are just like NATO subs, they need to surface to send a message.

Your fiber optic buoy is not for sending messages.

 

[pcgeek11]

Your post and my post are not contradicting each other.

I am not referring to sending messages to subs, both sides have ELF systems for that.

I am referring to receiving messages from subs. Subs rarely send messages, it is contrary to their mission.

"Most of the time they are not in communication with Russian command and control."

One way communication is still communication.

They can also transmit and remain submerged at periscope depth by just sticking a antenna out of the water. Although that presents an easier to locate target.

But I see your point.

I deleted your insult...

 

[Drach]

All this disturbingly casual talk of using nukes does not sit well with me. This is how we go down that rabbit hole. Just saying.

Complain to Putin. I will guarantee you we won't launch first.

 

[Bitek]

$2.8 Billion in Additional U.S. Military Assistance for Ukraine and Its Neighbors - United States Department of State

It has been seven months since President Putin’s February invasion of Ukraine, and the war’s terrible toll continues to mount. Thousands of civilians killed or wounded, 13 million Ukrainian civilians forced to flee their homes, historic cities pounded to rubble, horrifying reports of ongoing...

www.state.gov

total U.S. military assistance for Ukraine is approximately $15.2 billion since the beginning of this Administration.


$15B?!
To put it into perspective, that's the cost of a Ford class nuclear carrier!

And that's just the military hardware.
It doesnt include the economic and humanitarian support.

Anyone have a list of the hardware we've given them?
I want to see what 'unlimited ammo' mode looks like.

Seems pretty cheap to me.

Cost of a single carrier and we destroyed then entire Russian army, and didn't lose a single troop? Worse battles have been fought

 

[K1052]

Ukrainian weapons training looks a little more sophisticated than Russian training.

I admit I would pay some money to play modern Duck Hunt with an SPG-9...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578497151566389248

 

[Fenixgoon]

Ukrainian weapons training looks a little more sophisticated than Russian training.

I admit I would pay some money to play modern Duck Hunt with an SPG-9...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578497151566389248

would you be aiming for the duck or that damnable dog?

 

[NTMBK]

would you be aiming for the duck or that damnable dog?

With an RPG, why not both?

 

[Brovane]

You obviously have no idea about Submarine Warfare. Submarines are not as easy to locate and destroy as you make it seem in your post. Their primary day to day mission is to be not detected. The oceans are very large, the submarines are very small. There are salt layers and temperature inversions and just going ultra quiet.


US Submarines on alert status and covering target areas receive traffic all the time when submerged and underway. Look up Floating Wire Antenna. The mission depends on being able to receive Emergency Launch Orders 24/7. If you cannot for any reason that is considered weapons down time and is a huge No No. These No No's will have to be explained during the patrol debrief. In my 20 years we had no down time on the boats I was on.

Don't US Submarines use Ultra Low Frequency to act as a "bell ringer" for a submerged submarine to approach the surface to receive more detail orders?

 

[Jaskalas]

This story is getting some traction but I suspect the case is that the Ukrainian advance is moving more quickly at times than anybody but the Ukrainian and Russian militaries know. OSINT on Twitter is probably 1-2 days behind events and mainstream sources much more than that. Starlink can't operate in Russia and presumably Russian occupied territory.

While I want to wait for confirmations and give the benefit of the doubt....
Taking action to cripple Ukraine in some way... would further the purported goal Elon Musk clearly stated a few days ago.
That is of EXTREME sus....

Still, I'd be happy to wait for a proper report and investigation in the hope that cooperation can be maintained.
To the internet lynch mob however... they probably already issued a million death threats.

 

[K1052]

Don't US Submarines use Ultra Low Frequency to act as a "bell ringer" for a submerged submarine to approach the surface to receive more detail orders?

Though the ELF transmitters were decommissioned due to unspecific "improvements" in VLF communications.

 

[K1052]

While I want to wait for confirmations and give the benefit of the doubt....
Taking action to cripple Ukraine in some way... would further the purported goal Elon Musk clearly stated a few days ago.
That is of EXTREME sus....

Still, I'd be happy to wait for a proper report and investigation in the hope that cooperation can be maintained.
To the internet lynch mob however... they probably already issued a million death threats.

Area man who launches classified satellites for the Air Force taking orders from Putin about turning services off seems like a wildly problematic place to find one's self from both financial and legal perspectives.

 

[Brovane]

While I want to wait for confirmations and give the benefit of the doubt....
Taking action to cripple Ukraine in some way... would further the purported goal Elon Musk clearly stated a few days ago.
That is of EXTREME sus....

Still, I'd be happy to wait for a proper report and investigation in the hope that cooperation can be maintained.
To the internet lynch mob however... they probably already issued a million death threats.

What do you think Musk clearly stated a few days ago?

 

[Jaskalas]

What do you think Musk clearly stated a few days ago?

Immediate ceasefire, to give Russia everything it publicly stated it wants.

 

[Brovane]

Immediate ceasefire, to give Russia everything it publicly stated it wants.

No, but you are free to think that if you want to.

 

[RnR_au]

There will be survivors, but they will not be us. They will be in New Zealand. I feel kind of bad for them.

Don't feel bad for them... New Zealand is real nice

I'd be more interested in what somebody upthread suggested. Everything in place and ready to go. The moment a launch is detected, a total and complete wipeout of all RU forces inside Ukr, within minutes. Boom. Gone. Nearly all equipment and personnel.

This is the NATO plan. Any nuclear or chemical attacks will be met with swift NATO action inside Ukraine.

Then what?

Putin's rule at the top depends on the appearance of a successful mission in Ukraine. If he fails at Ukraine, he fails at home and he will be removed.

With a new administration, a ceasefire will be negotiated. Russia will have to pony up serious concessions and settlements in return for the sanctions to be lifted and for their economy to be allowed to reenter the world economy again.

 

[pcgeek11]

Don't US Submarines use Ultra Low Frequency to act as a "bell ringer" for a submerged submarine to approach the surface to receive more detail orders?

No. Or at least they didn't when I was in ( retired in 1993). I guess things could have changed since then.

When we were alert on patrol the floating wire was deployed to receive incoming Emergency Messages and going 5 knots to nowhere cruising in our designated area. This is really boring on alert.

 

[Zorba]

No. Or at least they didn't when I was in ( retired in 1993). I guess things could have changed since then.

When we were alert on patrol the floating wire was deployed to receive incoming Emergency Messages and going 5 knots to nowhere cruising in our designated area. This is really boring on alert.

Is 5 knots really any different than 30 in a sub?

I thought the long wire on E-6s were used to communicate with subs underwater.

 

[kage69]

Though the ELF transmitters were decommissioned due to unspecific "improvements" in VLF communications.

Yup, Navy built NAA Cutler right outside Eastport. 2,000,000 watts of transmit baby!

Lots of nerd cred over there, but those poor guys have to keep a lot of stuff de-iced in the winter so I've always felt bad for them. Heat and sprays only go so far, sometimes you have to go outside with a mallet. Like working on damn crab boat. Maine coast, right up on the rocks during a winter storm? That gets old fast.

 

[pcgeek11]

Is 5 knots really any different than 30 in a sub?

I thought the long wire on E-6s were used to communicate with subs underwater.

What is an E-6 ?

Yes. When the wire is deployed there are depth, speed and angle limits in order to maintain communications.

I have seen many wires get cut by the screw when an inexperienced diving officer had too much down angle and the wire gets too close. Speed and depth will cause the wire to submerge and a break in communication.