Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Atari2600]

Would the best way of doing it be to single out Putin, his cronies and the 100 people most likely to overthrow him and make sure its clearly communicated:

"We aren't coming after the people of Russia with everything we've got. We're coming after each and every one of you with everything we've got.

If we think your hiding in a cave in the Urals. Its getting nuked."

 

[Perknose]

Would the best way of doing it be to single out Putin, his cronies and the 100 people most likely to overthrow him and make sure its clearly communicated:

"We aren't coming after the people of Russia with everything we've got. We're coming after each and every one of you with everything we've got.

If we think your hiding in a cave in the Urals. Its getting nuked."

All this disturbingly casual talk of using nukes does not sit well with me. This is how we go down that rabbit hole. Just saying.

 

[Atari2600]

All this disturbingly casual talk of using nukes does not sit well with me. This is how we go down that rabbit hole. Just saying.

How we go down the rabbit hole is if one side thinks the other won't use theirs.

 

[Perknose]

How we go down the rabbit hole is if one side thinks the other won't use theirs.

The fastest, most fatal way down is just the opposite . . . if one side thinks the other will, and decides to strike first.

 

[KMFJD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578172176758603777

It's been a hell of a ride for this World of Tanks player

 

[Brainonska511]

That's one hell of a lowball figure.

Has no one seen Dr. Strangelove?

 

[Number1]

Nuking Russia first... good luck with that.
Biden got it right: anouce to the world that Russia is taken seriously and don't back down.
Deterence is the name of the game and I believe consequences to a nuclear strike in UA has been comunicated to the Russians.
We need to be ready for whatever may come.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

I'd be more interested in what somebody upthread suggested. Everything in place and ready to go. The moment a launch is detected, a total and complete wipeout of all RU forces inside Ukr, within minutes. Boom. Gone. Nearly all equipment and personnel.

 

[Zor Prime]

All this disturbingly casual talk of using nukes does not sit well with me. This is how we go down that rabbit hole. Just saying.

As someone with access to bunker(s) burrowed into hillsides I too find it disturbingly casual. I have no desire to live out a Fallout video game. It's one thing to talk hypothetical but it's another to seemingly encourage it. I grew up with Russia is gonna nuke us drills in school.

 

[tweaker2]

It seems the one and only thing on Putin's mind right at this moment is to find a way to save face in order to keep his head from doing a roll off his mile long desk and a couple of bounces inside a wastebasket. His troops don't have the leadership, the motivation and willingness to lay down their lives so he can make his dreams of a resurgent Soviet Union come true. His mercs can see the writing on the wall that without a big motivated army to hide behind their chances of getting their payouts sent home without them is getting more probable by the hour.

The easy victory he envisioned vanished a very long time ago. His grab for Ukrainian territory in the east and south is also being severely tested by a very well motivated and organized Ukrainian war horse. His most able-bodied young men are escaping his forced round-up of cannon fodder by the untold thousands so they absolutely know how badly things are going in that meat grinder down south of the border.

So what's an ex-KGB operator to do to alleviate that sense of impending doom that's set deep down in that heartless soul of his? I'm thinking he'd like to find a way to keep Crimea in hand, call that a win and with his complete control over the media claim that the whole idea of a "special military operation" was to defend Crimea from being overrun by the Nazis and what a heroic job they've done doing exactly that.

 

[Leeea]

All this disturbingly casual talk of using nukes does not sit well with me. This is how we go down that rabbit hole. Just saying.

-points at Putin- He started it

The fastest, most fatal way down is just the opposite . . . if one side thinks the other will, and decides to strike first.

Hey, I made it clear I was referring to a 2nd strike, after Russia nuked Ukraine.

Nuking Russia first... good luck with that.
Biden got it right: anouce to the world that Russia is taken seriously and don't back down.
Deterence is the name of the game and I believe consequences to a nuclear strike in UA has been comunicated to the Russians.
We need to be ready for whatever may come.

Nobody wants to nuke Russia first, nuking Russia 2nd on the other hand . . .

As someone with access to bunker(s) burrowed into hillsides I too find it disturbingly casual. I have no desire to live out a Fallout video game. It's one thing to talk hypothetical but it's another to seemingly encourage it. I grew up with Russia is gonna nuke us drills in school.

Your bunkers will do nothing at all except prolong your death. Without our communities none of us are going to make it.

We will either live or die, and it will all be decided in less then an hour.

There will be survivors, but they will not be us. They will be in New Zealand. I feel kind of bad for them. On the upside, no more global warming!

 

[UNCjigga]

We all have our priorities in life:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578322853774393345

Could this war be ended if we give everyone in Russia a new washer/dryer on the condition that they withdraw and hold UN-supervised elections?

 

[K1052]

This story is getting some traction but I suspect the case is that the Ukrainian advance is moving more quickly at times than anybody but the Ukrainian and Russian militaries know. OSINT on Twitter is probably 1-2 days behind events and mainstream sources much more than that. Starlink can't operate in Russia and presumably Russian occupied territory.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578409396236787713

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

For what it's worth ......


Nobel Peace Prize to activists from Belarus, Russia, Ukraine

By HANNA ARHIROVA, FRANK JORDANS and VANESSA GERAan hour ago

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Human rights activists from Ukraine, Belarus and Russia won the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, a strong rebuke to Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose invasion of Ukraine has ruptured decades of nearly uninterrupted peace in Europe, and to the Belarusian president, his authoritarian ally.

 

[gothuevos]

I'd be more interested in what somebody upthread suggested. Everything in place and ready to go. The moment a launch is detected, a total and complete wipeout of all RU forces inside Ukr, within minutes. Boom. Gone. Nearly all equipment and personnel.

Then what?

It doesn't decapitate their nuclear capabilities to strike at Europe or the US.

And if we truly toppled their military like that...what else do they have to lose at that point?

I really don't see how any of this ends well.

 

[deustroop]

I'd be more interested in what somebody upthread suggested. Everything in place and ready to go. The moment a launch is detected, a total and complete wipeout of all RU forces inside Ukr, within minutes. Boom. Gone. Nearly all equipment and personnel.

Well consider that UKR is doing approximately that with its army now. Nothing the US foot soldiers could do but add to the momentum UKR forces have attained. USA could help with Anti Air defence and longer range missiles but that's about it. There is no silver bullit given UKR's stellar performance--one is not needed. Must remember how dispersed the troops are/ They are not like penguins floating on an island. So a one stroke plan is impractical.
The best plan is to use the stroke to achieve the several obvious political and military goals--Pukin to the ICC, reparations enforced at once, Russian institutions subject to UN supervision pending free elections and a revamping of their military and Court administrations.
Getting to Moscow do this bit of administration will be like parting the Red Sea--just go and the waters will part. Trust me. Piece of cake.lol
EDIT--this reply is premised on there being no nuclear response by the USA .In fact, RUS will not launch one in my opinion no matter what happens.

 

[Commodus]

It seems the one and only thing on Putin's mind right at this moment is to find a way to save face in order to keep his head from doing a roll off his mile long desk and a couple of bounces inside a wastebasket. His troops don't have the leadership, the motivation and willingness to lay down their lives so he can make his dreams of a resurgent Soviet Union come true. His mercs can see the writing on the wall that without a big motivated army to hide behind their chances of getting their payouts sent home without them is getting more probable by the hour.

The easy victory he envisioned vanished a very long time ago. His grab for Ukrainian territory in the east and south is also being severely tested by a very well motivated and organized Ukrainian war horse. His most able-bodied young men are escaping his forced round-up of cannon fodder by the untold thousands so they absolutely know how badly things are going in that meat grinder down south of the border.

So what's an ex-KGB operator to do to alleviate that sense of impending doom that's set deep down in that heartless soul of his? I'm thinking he'd like to find a way to keep Crimea in hand, call that a win and with his complete control over the media claim that the whole idea of a "special military operation" was to defend Crimea from being overrun by the Nazis and what a heroic job they've done doing exactly that.

There's no question Putin will try to spin any exit as a successful mission — even if he lost Crimea he'd probably claim that Russia "de-Nazified" the region. It's more a matter of when Putin accepts that it's time to quit, and whether or not his mounting failures boost Russia's public opposition.

The whole situation is odd. Putin is normally a very shrewd leader, but he took a huge risk in betting that he could invade Ukraine and keep whatever territory he wanted. And he keeps doubling down even though it's increasingly clear that officials were lying about the military's capabilities. Either his ego won't let him bow out, or he decided that he'd rather flame out in spectacular fashion than cut his losses.

 

[GoPackGo]

Then what?

It doesn't decapitate their nuclear capabilities to strike at Europe or the US.

And if we truly toppled their military like that...what else do they have to lose at that point?

I really don't see how any of this ends well.

Only Russian military presence in Ukraine was mentioned.

 

[Pens1566]

That's one hell of a gamble. A single unaccounted for Russian missile sub could launch 16 MIRV warheads- and I don't have nearly as much faith in NATO missile defence as you do. Some of those missiles are getting through, and millions are going to die.

I have almost zero faith in our missile defense systems TBH. They will fail spectacularly in any "serious" scenario. Might get a hit here or there, but not enough to prevent mass devastation in a real exchange.

 

[Pens1566]

This story is getting some traction but I suspect the case is that the Ukrainian advance is moving more quickly at times than anybody but the Ukrainian and Russian militaries know. OSINT on Twitter is probably 1-2 days behind events and mainstream sources much more than that. Starlink can't operate in Russia and presumably Russian occupied territory.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578409396236787713

Came to post about this as well. Not a great time for this as noted here:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578419355695869953

 

[Paratus]

This story is getting some traction but I suspect the case is that the Ukrainian advance is moving more quickly at times than anybody but the Ukrainian and Russian militaries know. OSINT on Twitter is probably 1-2 days behind events and mainstream sources much more than that. Starlink can't operate in Russia and presumably Russian occupied territory.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578409396236787713

Jesus. Could you see the US chipping in on the Twitter deal so Musk will extend Starlink coverage into Russian occupied territory?

 

[NTMBK]

Well consider that UKR is doing approximately that with its army now. Nothing the US foot soldiers could do but add to the momentum UKR forces have attained. USA could help with Anti Air defence and longer range missiles but that's about it. There is no silver bullit given UKR's stellar performance--one is not needed. Must remember how dispersed the troops are/ They are not like penguins floating on an island. So a one stroke plan is impractical.

It won't be one stroke, it will be over several days.

- Stealth fighters target air defence systems and Russian jets. Knock out every single thing that could threaten a NATO jet. This will take a few days by itself- Russia has a lot of air defence.
- The Black Sea Fleet will also need to be knocked out, either by stealth fighters or by submarines. Those things are basically floating air defence bubbles.
- Once air superiority is achieved, start dismantling the Russian army in Ukraine with conventional aircraft flying at high altitude (to avoid MANPADs). Trains, supply depots, command points, artillery, tanks, IFVs, supply trucks - bomb them all.

They won't be able to win the war solely from the air, but if the Russian army is reduced to a bunch of infantry with no supply lines and no C&C, the job for Ukraine is basically one giant mopping up exercise.

 

[K1052]

Jesus. Could you see the US chipping in on the Twitter deal so Musk will extend Starlink coverage into Russian occupied territory?

Without a more fulsome explanation it's hard to tell if the occupied territories are switched off because of concerns about Russia capturing Starlink units or due to Russian requests. Though it could be both I guess given recent uh proposals from Musk. I suspect that in the future Ukraine won't want to depend on such a mercurial commercial service provider...

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Did somebody mention the UN?

Russia seeks secret UN vote on condemning Ukraine annexation

By EDITH M. LEDERERyesterday

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Russia called for a secret ballot vote next week on a Western-backed resolution that would condemn its “attempted illegal annexation” of part of four Ukrainian regions and demand that Moscow immediately reverse its actions.





..

 

[Pens1566]

Without a more fulsome explanation it's hard to tell if the occupied territories are switched off because of concerns about Russia capturing Starlink units or due to Russian requests. Though it could be both I guess given recent uh proposals from Musk. I suspect that in the future Ukraine won't want to depend on such a mercurial commercial service provider...

There have been some reports that starlink units are working in the east in what were just recently occupied areas. So I'm not sure how much to believe the geo-location blacklisting.