Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[pcgeek11]

$20 says it explodes before it's halfway out of the launch tube.

Like our Mark 45 Nuclear Torpedoes we had back in the late 60's and early 70s. We called them Nuclear Hand Grenades. Standard launch protocol would be fire the weapon and then go as fast and as deep as you can in the opposite direction.

Damage field was larger than the range.

Edit for spelling.

 

[K1052]

Yes, I think the prevailing wisdom is that Ukraine's offensive operations will pause in the relatively near future.

That being said, Russia has shown essentially zero ability to conduct offensive operations since the initial invasion.

I think they pause the Luhansk offensive for a bit probably when they get Svatove and direct more resources to Kherson to capitalize on their progress there.

 

[K1052]

Like our Mark 45 Nuclear Torpedoes we had back in the late 60's and early 70s. We called them Nuclear Hand Grenades. Standard lauch protocol would be fire the weapon and the go as fast and as deep as you can in the opposite direction.

Damage field was larger than the range.

After the incident with their nuclear powered cruise missile in 2019 I think the odds this kills whoever presses the launch button are pretty good.

 

[Jaskalas]

I think they pause the Luhansk offensive for a bit probably when they get Svatove and direct more resources to Kherson to capitalize on their progress there.

Reach the railway past Svatove, and Luhansk falls like dominoes.
The P66 highway is already unusable for Russians. They are in a very stressed position across the region.
One would imagine the next Russian attack would be to push back and stabilize Luhansk.

But the Russian military is mostly in shambles. Who knows what capacity remains.

 

[Leeea]

It will never be recognized as Russian territory by the international community but it is unlikely the Ukrainians could dislodge the Russians if they decided to stay.

I disagree completely. Ukraine has shown it is capable of evicting Russians.

All the way where exactly ? You suppose taking Crimea is a satisfactory conclusion point ? You are forgetting the most important element to international affairs involved here. Stopping at Crimea leaves Pukin back home and worry free. There should be no cessation of the war until at the least Pukin is either delivered to the ICC or to another appropriate forum for his readjustment, like a good old Soviet firing squad.
Here it is--read my lips--without the RU army delivering him to UKR in chains, there will be no justice in stopping short of the gates of Moscow . Nobody has got their mind around this.

There will be no justice at the end of this war. But making Ukraine whole again will be worthy none the less.

From a Ny Times article I read today about cleaning up after the Lyman victory (lots of dead bodies):

“
Weary and dirty, the tank crew showed little concern for the Russian bodies, but seemed tense and angry from their recent battles. They had been fighting for 51 days without a break and were still wearing their summer uniforms, said one of them, who gave his code name as Positiv.
“We liberated four villages and planted the Ukrainian flag, but other units took the credit,” he said. “So many of our soldiers died,” he added. “So many young guys, 20-year-olds. So many.””

This has not been an easy victory and Ukrainian troops are getting tired.

Your right, it is not right. We should send in the USAF and make the Russian's play hide and seek with A10s. Destroy all Russian assets not located in Russia, sink their subs, destroy their bases, and seize their civilian ships.

 

[fskimospy]

Reach the railway past Svatove, and Luhansk falls like dominoes.
The P66 highway is already unusable for Russians. They are in a very stressed position across the region.
One would imagine the next Russian attack would be to push back and stabilize Luhansk.

But the Russian military is mostly in shambles. Who knows what capacity remains.

Part of me wonders if these conscripts will do more harm than good for Russia. I find it hard to believe they are effective fighters but you still have to supply them and we know Russian supply routes are already stretched thin.

 

[Jaskalas]

Part of me wonders if these conscripts will do more harm than good for Russia. I find it hard to believe they are effective fighters but you still have to supply them and we know Russian supply routes are already stretched thin.

I worry about a possible 240,000 strong invasion force from Belarus.
They might be fresh enough and equipped enough to do something note worthy. Especially given the scale.
I do not expect much more from Russia's initial invasion force from Feb 2022. Given the casualty numbers, I imagine they are mostly spent.

 

[K1052]

Reach the railway past Svatove, and Luhansk falls like dominoes.
The P66 highway is already unusable for Russians. They are in a very stressed position across the region.
One would imagine the next Russian attack would be to push back and stabilize Luhansk.

But the Russian military is mostly in shambles. Who knows what capacity remains.

Once they reach P66 the railway is within both tube and HIMARS range.

 

[Jaskalas]

Once they reach P66 the railway is within both tube and HIMARS range.

One HIMAR a day will keep the trains away.
Just blow the tracks. Do not even have to reach it.

 

[cytg111]

Part of me wonders if these conscripts will do more harm than good for Russia. I find it hard to believe they are effective fighters but you still have to supply them and we know Russian supply routes are already stretched thin.

Probably worse with the PR at home, mothers, wives etc…

 

[Lezunto]

Have to make it the end of him. His head on a pike has to be warning to all other would be aggressors (NK, Iran, etc) else this will become an accepted option

It was Britain that created Iran and it was the Shah who turned Iran into a totalitarian nation. I am certain Jimmy Carter was not expecting the U.S. Embassy in Tehran to be overrun after he allowed the ailing Shah into the U.S. for cancer treatment.

So, fast forward. What are you blaming Iran for now? Resisting U.S. hegemony? Refusing to bow to Israel? Or because Iran's morality police arrest women who don't wear head scarfs correctly?

Well, in the U.S., we expel Black teenagers from schools for wearing their hair in braids or dreads. We threaten their parents, caregivers and supporters. What the frig is the difference? Iran always had a different culture - but you think White Westerners have a right to change that.

Do you know what Middle East nation had a culture that, in some places, was akin to the U.S.? Iraq!

The country's teenagers wore blue jeans, listened to Walkmans and before its invasion of Kuwait, Iraq boasted the world's seventh best health system, according to long-established medical journal Lancet.

We have forgotten what a frigging mess we left Iraq after the 2003 invasion. After the U.S. arranged the hanging of Saddam Hussein and several in his government.

Rather than being a viable Democracy, (which was the lie of Dubya and his cronies), Iraq is now a maelstrom of violence. This is what happens when addle-brained Westerners think they know best. BTW, just where are those dastardly WMD's? Where is the nuke Saddam was supposedly building?

But here you are, Bitek, casually discussing the decapitation of the leaderships of countries you know little about, but don't like.

Independent nations have a right to choose their own self-determination. And the U.S. has no right to tell other countries what type of governments they should have. Or what religions their populace should practice.

 

[fskimospy]

It was Britain that created Iran and it was the Shah who turned Iran into a totalitarian nation. I am certain Jimmy Carter was not expecting the U.S. Embassy in Tehran to be overrun after he allowed the ailing Shah into the U.S. for cancer treatment.

So, fast forward. What are you blaming Iran for now? Resisting U.S. hegemony? Refusing to bow to Israel? Or because Iran's morality police arrest women who don't wear head scarfs correctly?

It's perfectly reasonable to blame the US when we do bad things and then blame Iran when they do bad things. While US support for the Shah was terrible he's been gone a long time now. At some point Iranians are responsible for their totalitarian nation. If not after over 40 years then when?

Well, in the U.S., we expel Black teenagers from schools for wearing their hair in braids or dreads. We threaten their parents, caregivers and supporters. What the frig is the difference? Iran always had a different culture - but you think White Westerners have a right to change that.

Are you asking what the difference is between school discipline and imprisonment/death?

Do you know what Middle East nation had a culture that, in some places, was akin to the U.S.? Iraq!

The country's teenagers wore blue jeans, listened to Walkmans and before its invasion of Kuwait, Iraq boasted the world's seventh best health system, according to long-established medical journal Lancet.

We have forgotten what a frigging mess we left Iraq after the 2003 invasion. After the U.S. arranged the hanging of Saddam Hussein and several in his government.

Rather than being a viable Democracy, (which was the lie of Dubya and his cronies), Iraq is now a maelstrom of violence. This is what happens when addle-brained Westerners think they know best. BTW, just where are those dastardly WMD's? Where is the nuke Saddam was supposedly building?

But here you are, Bitek, casually discussing the decapitation of the leaderships of countries you know little about, but don't like.

Independent nations have a right to choose their own self-determination. And the U.S. has no right to tell other countries what type of governments they should have. Or what religions their populace should practice.

I don't think he was calling for the US to kill Putin but for his own countrymen to. This would be a superior warning to other autocrats anyway. Nukes protect you from the US, not from your own people.

 

[cytg111]

It was Britain that created Iran and it was the Shah who turned Iran into a totalitarian nation. I am certain Jimmy Carter was not expecting the U.S. Embassy in Tehran to be overrun after he allowed the ailing Shah into the U.S. for cancer treatment.

So, fast forward. What are you blaming Iran for now? Resisting U.S. hegemony? Refusing to bow to Israel? Or because Iran's morality police arrest women who don't wear head scarfs correctly?

Well, in the U.S., we expel Black teenagers from schools for wearing their hair in braids or dreads. We threaten their parents, caregivers and supporters. What the frig is the difference? Iran always had a different culture - but you think White Westerners have a right to change that.

Do you know what Middle East nation had a culture that, in some places, was akin to the U.S.? Iraq!

The country's teenagers wore blue jeans, listened to Walkmans and before its invasion of Kuwait, Iraq boasted the world's seventh best health system, according to long-established medical journal Lancet.

We have forgotten what a frigging mess we left Iraq after the 2003 invasion. After the U.S. arranged the hanging of Saddam Hussein and several in his government.

Rather than being a viable Democracy, (which was the lie of Dubya and his cronies), Iraq is now a maelstrom of violence. This is what happens when addle-brained Westerners think they know best. BTW, just where are those dastardly WMD's? Where is the nuke Saddam was supposedly building?

But here you are, Bitek, casually discussing the decapitation of the leaderships of countries you know little about, but don't like.

Independent nations have a right to choose their own self-determination. And the U.S. has no right to tell other countries what type of governments they should have. Or what religions their populace should practice.

Counterpoint, there are no independent nations. There are imaginary lines drawn on a map that ultimately serves people 99% not in your class bracket. Not having all the answers but fighting for your neighbors personal rights and freedoms transcends those imaginary lines. This is obviously not how the world works *right now*.

 

[Jaskalas]

Independent nations have a right to choose their own self-determination. And the U.S. has no right to tell other countries what type of governments they should have. Or what religions their populace should practice.

That much is agreed upon in principle.
In practice, we should find some carrot and stick approaches to some basic human rights. For example, if a society endorses slavery... we might want to have a word about that. But we also probably shouldn't go in and cause widespread murder and mayhem either. Tech, trades, and incentives should be our tools. Not warfare. Unless the society is already at war, already has murder and mayhem. It might be argued that some level of peace could be restored. But we should not engage in violence unless it is absolutely necessary.

 

[Artorias]

I worry about a possible 240,000 strong invasion force from Belarus.
They might be fresh enough and equipped enough to do something note worthy. Especially given the scale.
I do not expect much more from Russia's initial invasion force from Feb 2022. Given the casualty numbers, I imagine they are mostly spent.

Unlike Russia there were massive protests in Belarus when their current dictator won another sham election.

I believe it went on for several weeks with tens of thousands arrested, unfortunately the official opposition leader had to flea the country.

If they mobilize again they will have the same scenario again and I don't think Lukashenko survives with what's happening in Ukraine.

Belarus is most likely to see a popular uprising out of all the Russian puppet states.

2020–2021 Belarusian protests - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Lezunto]

cytg111,

I admire your perspective because your view is from outside the U.S. I do believe there are independent nations, Not independent in terms of finances, raw materials, consumer goods and defense alliances. But in terms of foreign policy.

Mexico refused to join the War Against the Iraqi People in 2003. That was a huge risk.

We live in an extremely troubled world, made worse by the advent of a 24-hour news cycle, cruel and cunning national leaders and celebrities who are often mistaken for learned, experienced and competent world observers.

Elon Musk is taking it on the chin for his suggestion that Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky cede territory to Russia to bring about an end to the war. But I bet most forget that Israel's Prime Minister Yair Lapid suggested something similar back in March.

Personally, I think Musk is a jerk, but he knows people will defer to him because of his wealth. It's kind of strange that he's backtracked and will now buy Twitter for the original asking price of $44 billion.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Part of me wonders if these conscripts will do more harm than good for Russia. I find it hard to believe they are effective fighters but you still have to supply them and we know Russian supply routes are already stretched thin.

Force denigrators/reducers? 🤣

 

[Dave_5k]

Part of me wonders if these conscripts will do more harm than good for Russia. I find it hard to believe they are effective fighters but you still have to supply them and we know Russian supply routes are already stretched thin.

Putin's generals appear to disagree on the "have to supply them" ...as seen on many videos, the Russian method seems to be to not supply the infantry cannon fodder (well, other than handing them either a rusty AK or a WW1 Mosin rifle) - have them buy or steal their own supplies. That way the generals profit, having sold off most of the supplies (when not just stealing the funds directly).

 

[Perknose]

Putin preparing to target Norway's off shore oil and gas platforms?

From the article: "This seems the most probable explanation for an unlikely combination of two recent events: sabotage on September 26 against undersea gas pipelines from Russia to Germany, which received widespread publicity, and drones buzzing Norwegian offshore oil and gas platforms a week earlier, which got little publicity but was potentially far more threatening."

If he goes through with an attack, he'll try to obfuscate its Russian origin. Norway is NATO. How would "we" respond?

 

[Racan]

So long and thanks for all the fish!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577275692747980800

 

[tweaker2]

** HY-80 and the Sub-Safe program.

** HY100 was not in use during the construction of the USS San Francisco. The keel was laid in 1977 and commissioned 24 April 1981.

And First and Formost a highly trained crew that knows how to operate a Submarine under extreme and deadly conditions.

Every time I have to machine HY-80 into whatever spec. being called for, I feel a need to call in sick and have one of the FNG's take a whack at it. Nasty stuff where speeds, feeds and depths of cut get slowed down to a crawl. Worse than some of the exotics.

 

[Leeea]

How would "we" respond?

Norway will decide if it submits an article 5 complaint, and then we all get together and murder a whole bunch of orcs.

 

[KMFJD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574140268005269507

gonna be hard to run now that the makeshift bridge is gone as well

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577404962627551232

not confirmed yet

 

[K1052]

Shits getting real on the west side of the river. Ukrainians will soon be able to cover every bit of the Russian force with tube artillery.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1577421332697927680

 

[pcgeek11]

Every time I have to machine HY-80 into whatever spec. being called for, I feel a need to call in sick and have one of the FNG's take a whack at it. Nasty stuff where speeds, feeds and depths of cut get slowed down to a crawl. Worse than some of the exotics.

One of the reasons that the HY-100 Pressure Hulls were not put to practical use sooner. Hard to machine and harder to weld. I think that they still consider HY-130 unweldable.