Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Commodus]

-BLINKS-

It really is an enemy at the gates reenactment!

2 weeks of training! total!

The plan is most likely to have them zerg, and hope they win before winter sets in.

The Ukrainians do not need to kill a million conscripts. They just need to stop them long enough for General Winter to do it. Russia needs to feed all these conscripts, get them winter gear, heat, just basic survival stuff. While being shot at by guided NATO munitions.

Meanwhile Ukraine is going to be running around in NATO surplus gear, goretek. The Russian military is clueless as to what modern textiles can do. As soon as the ground freezes all these conscripts are going to find out the hard way.

It's almost as horrifying as what Russia has done to Ukraine, when I think about it. In the current situation, that's 300,000 woefully inexperienced and underequipped reservists who don't stand a chance now, let alone in the winter. If Russia is turning to fresh-off-the-street conscripts? Putin is practically throwing people into a meat grinder.

And of course, it's important to remember that these troops won't arrive right away. They're deploying over a span of months, so it would take a long time for them to have a meaningful impact even if they were properly trained and equipped. They may end up being the human equivalent of wall spackling — patching up holes as Russia loses people on the front lines.

 

[Lezunto]

I believe Putin will use such weapons against the Ukrainians. I don't think he's stupid or demented enough to take on all of the West.

I am also not so sure France, Britain or Germany feel that strongly about Ukraine's capital city.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Hmmm

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573314026830024706

 

[Zorba]

In other news, it looks like this time Russia is able to get a 1891 Mosin-Nagant for everyone!:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573332051096633345

All my shit posts are coming true today.


I am very surprised. I was under the impression all the functional 1891 Mosin-Nagants had been sold to the west on the collectors market.

Trying to slow down the Ukrainians with the massive influx of POWs.

I forget, is it legal to transfer POWs to a neutral country like Poland?

 

[Jaskalas]

I believe Putin will use such weapons against the Ukrainians. I don't think he's stupid or demented enough to take on all of the West.

I am also not so sure France, Britain or Germany feel that strongly about Ukraine's capital city.

We would have to respond with an act of war.
Maybe not our own nukes, but such a thing must be met with violent repercussions, such as a total blockade and hunting down of anything Russian outside its borders. The scouring of the Black Sea. The taking of Crimea.

 

[Lezunto]

We would have to respond with an act of war.
Maybe not our own nukes, but such a thing must be met with violent repercussions, such as a total blockade and hunting down of anything Russian outside its borders. The scouring of the Black Sea. The taking of Crimea.

I really hope it does not come to this.

But I agree that a strong military response must be required.

 

[Artorias]

Most likely Putin catches a bullet from a Makarov before any such order can be relayed. Running the risk of literally obliterating the nation just to salvage his Ukraine invasion will have zero appeal to anybody in his circle.

Are we really sue this will happen? All the good people are fleeing the country, and Putin has had over 20 years to build his mafia of loyalists.

 

[Leeea]

Trying to slow down the Ukrainians with the massive influx of POWs.

I forget, is it legal to transfer POWs to a neutral country like Poland?

Maybe just strip them of "valuables" and tell them to march right back to Russia?

 

[Leeea]

Are we really sue this will happen?

The generals have family. How far would you be willing to go along when your child is the one who is going to get it?

 

[K1052]

Are we really sue this will happen? All the good people are fleeing the country, and Putin has had over 20 years to build his mafia of loyalists.

You can't spend stolen money or enjoy your yacht if you're a radioactive corpse.

 

[Zorba]

Trump tried to leave Ukraine defenseless. Had he won again, Trump would be providing accurate satellite data for Russian missile targets and Ukraine's capital would be a bunch of smoldering ruins.

I am grateful Biden won and he is helping the Ukrainians.

But what happens if Putin does choose to employ tactical nukes? What does NATO do? What does Western Europe do? What does Biden do?

At a minimum a massive conventional response from NATO, that would likely see Russia's entire fleet sunk and a massive aerial campaign against it's army in Ukraine.

I seriously doubt Putin would servive that order.

 

[RnR_au]

Hmmm

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573314026830024706

Yeah, take a heavy dose of salt with this one I think.

I'm still crossing my fingers though

 

[Leeea]

It seems Russian conscripts are less then excited about the special military operation:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xlt3zu

 

[Lezunto]

Zorba,

Nah. One does not bring a knife to a gunfight.

Forget the conventional response.

 

[Zorba]

The generals have family. How far would you be willing to go along when your child is the one who is going to get it?

Plus all the pyshcophants want power, there is no power to be had when you are dead and your domain is a glass parking lot.

 

[Leeea]

Zorba,

Nah. One does not bring a knife to a gunfight.

Forget the conventional response.

no.

Conventional is exactly the right way to go.

Instead of committing a war crime, hit Putin where it hurts, his regime. However many are killed by Russia's WMD in Ukraine, kill that many Russia military/security/FSB/"police"/regime personnel. Use conventional precision munitions to try to limit the proportional response to people that matter to Putin or are necessary for Putin's objectives.


----------------------------------

The only other way is an overwhelming nuclear second* strike. Yes, we have missile defense now, but there are going to be leakers. When the leaker is a nuke, that is a disaster.

*since in this scenario Russia would be deploying the first nuke in Ukraine, a response would be a 2nd strike. Cold comfort to the souls of the dead.

I prefer the conventional option.

 

[Lezunto]

Leeea,

The only way to kill millions quickly is through the use of nuclear weapons. Why should the U.S. degrade its military stockpile by using up its cruise and conventional missiles?

They may be needed elsewhere.

 

[Leeea]

Leeea,

The only way to kill millions quickly is through the use of nuclear weapons. Why should the U.S. degrade its military stockpile by using up its cruise and conventional missiles?

They may be needed elsewhere.

It is not necessary to kill millions quickly. Killing them slowly would be more effective, a steady drip every day of several thousand dead regime personnel. Just keep hitting them over and over until it breaks.

---------------

A nuclear response instantly makes conventional weapons pointless.

If nukes are going to be used, conventional weapons become irrelevant.


Use up the conventional stuff while it is still relevant and can yield a less insane outcome.

---------------

Lastly, it is not a surety that Russia will be able to nuke Ukraine on its first attempt. NATO missile defense* can hit targets over Moscow with its SM-3** interceptors. If NATO gets lucky, they might be able to intercept a nuke before it hits Ukraine.

A conventional measured response is ideal to such a scenario.


*Aegis Ashore as deployed to Poland and Romania. Aegis as deployed to a whole bunch of NATO warships. There are a large number of interceptors floating around out there.
** SM-3's have a publish speed of Mach 13 and a published range of 1,200 km. This is a system designed to stop missiles in the boost, post-boost, midcourse, and terminal phases.

 

[Brovane]

Trump tried to leave Ukraine defenseless. Had he won again, Trump would be providing accurate satellite data for Russian missile targets and Ukraine's capital would be a bunch of smoldering ruins.

I am grateful Biden won and he is helping the Ukrainians.

But what happens if Putin does choose to employ tactical nukes? What does NATO do? What does Western Europe do? What does Biden do?

What do you want the rest of the world to do? Start a nuclear exchange with Russia?

Hopefully the use of nuclear weapons by Russia on Ukraine would force both China and India to break off relations with Russia and stop buying Russian Oil.

 

[Leeea]

KA-52 does not make it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xl4slw

 

[Racan]

One of the "nazis" of Azovstal

https://twitter.com/x/status/1573316828025487362

 

[Brovane]

Not yet. Now they only take people with military service experience. But I will be in the next wave of mobilization, as I was trained in the military department at the institute. There is time to get a job at a military enterprise. My knowledge and skills will be more useful there than at the front.

Remember it is ok to surrender to the nearest Ukrainian unit when you get to the frontline. We won't hold it against you.

 

[fskimospy]

What do you want the rest of the world to do? Start a nuclear exchange with Russia?

Hopefully the use of nuclear weapons by Russia on Ukraine would force both China and India to break off relations with Russia and stop buying Russian Oil.

I think the Russian use of nuclear weapons would cause the US to respond. I don't think we would attack Russia proper but I think we would strike Russian forces in Ukraine.

 

[Muse]

Once this war machine is rolling... Sure as fuck is not gonna stop with Ukraine.

NATO. Boots on the ground.
And be ready to pop that Nuclear champagne.
Yep, its shit up to the neck. We can pretend this is not the case. Sure.

Crystal ball some? Who's your gypsy?

 

[Sunburn74]

I think the Russian use of nuclear weapons would cause the US to respond. I don't think we would attack Russia proper but I think we would strike Russian forces in Ukraine.

I think we would have to attack in kind with nuclear weapons. Basically if the Russians are willing to use them against Ukraine (a country they invaded) they are willing to use them against anyone. Can't feel safe with a country around willing to do that. I think you basically see the entire Western world topple the Russian regime overnight and given the conscription response so far it probably would be accepted by the people there as deserving.