Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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tweaker2

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,518
6,950
136
The games dictators play:

Opening Chapter: Putin, much like Trump, predictably doubles down on a bad hand and proceeds to play that hand like he's holding six aces in a five card hand with everyone else at the table shaking their heads in disbelief at the outright imbecilic sight of it all. Putin reads the crowd, knows he's not bluffing anyone yet he pleads with his buddy Xi Jinping sitting left of Puti to back his hand. Xi, caught with Putin's shlong in his right hand, waves him off with a stern yet humiliating look on his face while simultaneously pumping on Putin's pecker to get his attention as he shifts his squinted gaze at playah India, sitting on Puti's right, eye winking and tilting his head toward India's Kovind to signal him that India will slide him a thick wad of converted yuan under the table.

Next chapter: The other players at the table, catching wind of the under table play, lay their sixshooters on deck while giving Puti and Xi the 'ol Clint Eastwood glare.
 
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Ajay

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,429
7,847
136
Lost_in_the_HTTP said:
It's been posted several times. 'Convince' Ukraine and the UN and NATO to accept a settlement where he keeps Crimea and the nearly beaten to pieces land bridge and access to the coastline as well as the eastern provinces.


That may have been something to consider six months ago. Now it simply cannot be allowed. They MUST be forced to withdraw fully and completely. They must be TOLD what is to happen ... no talking about it. No negotiations.
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That'll still require negotiations. The point is to put Ukraine in the best possible position to limit what Moscow is able to get.


I think it would have been helpful to put more troops on the Polish border w/Ukraine. I'm starting to wonder what sort of intelligence the US and our allies have on Putin. They are being extremely careful about overt displays of military might, aside from shipping arms (for which I am very grateful, for Ukraine's sake).
 
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D

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,577
3,079
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hal2kilo said:
Oh they moved all kinds of Russians into Ukraine for this purpose. I'm sure a bunch of them are planted in the Baltic countries. (It's a form of genocide).

UK knows all about it.
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Yeah, I've seen numbers quoted of more than 500,000 folks from Russia moved to Crimea after the 2014 invasion. (And the Ukrainians were "incentivized" to move out)
 
Ajay

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,429
7,847
136
K1052 said:
Assuming they came from us I'd expect AGM-84H/Ks. Europe has options as well.
Click to expand...
SLAM-ER is a great PGM with self guidance capabilities and a 250km range. However, it would take some serious Rube Goldberg modifications to mount it on their Sukhoi's (24, 25 or 27). I don't see how it would be possible to provide it with the required data from the weapons control systems.
 
Zorba

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,519
9,895
136
Dave_5k said:
We have some Polish Migs that Poland is willing to give up .... we might be able to jury-rig those. I'm sure we could find some creative crews, as long as the one of the weapon mounting is roughly load compatible

Looks like it was early 1990's acquisition, and I can't find any reference post that c. 2002 photo, any Danish Defense military types around? :)
Click to expand...
Adding new weapons to aircraft is far more complex than anyone would think.
 
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K1052

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,021
32,993
136
Ajay said:
SLAM-ER is a great PGM with self guidance capabilities and a 250km range. However, it would take some serious Rube Goldberg modifications to mount it on their Sukhoi's (24, 25 or 27). I don't see how it would be possible to provide it with the required data from the weapons control systems.
Click to expand...

I think they're going to be pretty deep into highly creative engineering to mount basically any NATO weapons up to the Ukrainian planes.

Norway might have some limited number of truck mounted NSMs available. The USMC has been testing them.
 
B

bguile

Senior member
Nov 30, 2011
529
51
91
zinfamous said:
Has there been any kind of equipment and capability analysis between the different fronts of the Russian invasion?

With the success and devastation of the south and south east, I wonder if Putin really just committed his primary forces to the south east and to establish that connection to Crimea. All the garbage sent down to the North was just a feint, to keep UA divided because they can't possibly abandon Kyiv.

Putin's desperation to take Mariupol and solidify that territory seems to be his primary focus. It's certainly not beneath him, but I suspect that he planned to sacrifice 30-40k Russian children to slaughter in North and Northeast Ukraine, scrap a bunch of shitty Cold War equipment to possibly be replaced with some commitment from Xi, so that he could capture territory in the south, and then retreat back to those borders as some concession that he really wanted all along.

Of course, he certainly wants to remove Zelenskyy and install another Trump-like puppet--maybe that's why Manafort was trying to flee Miami yesterday to meet with his strategy team--but I can imagine that his primary goal is the south
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I don't know about them using only the best in the south. There was the whole landing with VDV at hostomel that didn't quite work out (and other places). Those guys are considered elite, and even have their own national holiday. I don't think you would risk landing them in hostile territory and then hope the conscripts coming down from Belarus could relieve them in time.

I think the plan was to get to Kiev as fast as possible and you would want to use your best troops to do that. Well that, and it really doesn't seem like they expected much resistance either. Maybe they thought it would be Crimea invasion part 2, and that it would be a cake walk.

Below is a link to a video analysis some guy did regarding Russian equipment losses versus quality though its not by region.

Sending their best analysis
 
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Jaskalas

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,425
7,485
136
Number1 said:
It is your neck on the line. If this issue is not dealt with decisively right now, it's going to come up again and again.
Click to expand...

If Russia nukes Ukraine, that does not kill any one of us.
If we uphold MAD and counter launch against Russia for that, everyone dies.

Under this principle, Russia would certainly take a bet that winning the war through WMD is going to be necessary and logical. That we would not kill ourselves for Ukraine.

We may not be willing to attack Russia's military and call their bluff. But let's not think for a second that Putin will hesitate to call ours. What would we REALLY do if Putin kills everyone in Kyiv? He was going to do that with conventional weapons. Soon he may realize his goal can only be achieved through WMD. How different will the punishment be, when the crime was always going to be genocide?

We have already declared that we will not step in to stop a conventional genocide.
Why would we step in to stop any other sort?
 
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cytg111

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,174
12,833
136
Jaskalas said:
If Russia nukes Ukraine, that does not kill any one of us.
If we uphold MAD and counter launch against Russia for that, everyone dies.

Under this principle, Russia would certainly take a bet that winning the war through WMD is going to be necessary and logical. That we would not kill ourselves for Ukraine.

We may not be willing to attack Russia's military and call their bluff. But let's not think for a second that Putin will hesitate to call ours. What would we REALLY do if Putin kills everyone in Kyiv? He was going to do that with conventional weapons. Soon he may realize his goal can only be achieved through WMD. How different will the punishment be, when the crime was always going to be genocide?

We have already declared that we will not step in to stop a conventional genocide.
Why would we step in to stop any other sort?
Click to expand...
MAD is bad… for sure… but just somehow I know there is a plan somewhere to glass over Moscow and Kremlin without any reciprocal assured destruction happening.
 
Number1

Number1

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2006
7,881
549
126
tweaker2 said:
The games dictators play:

Opening Chapter: Putin, much like Trump, predictably doubles down on a bad hand and proceeds to play that hand like he's holding six aces in a five card hand with everyone else at the table shaking their heads in disbelief at the outright imbecilic sight of it all. Putin reads the crowd, knows he's not bluffing anyone yet he pleads with his buddy Xi Jinping sitting left of Puti to back his hand. Xi, caught with Putin's shlong in his right hand, waves him off with a stern yet humiliating look on his face while simultaneously pumping on Putin's pecker to get his attention as he shifts his squinted gaze at playah India, sitting on Puti's right, eye winking and tilting his head toward India's Kovind to signal him that India will slide him a thick wad of converted yuan under the table.

Next chapter: The other players at the table, catching wind of the under table play, lay their sixshooters on deck while giving Puti and Xi the 'ol Clint Eastwood glare.
Click to expand...
Diarea, that's all I can think of reading this.
 
Number1

Number1

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2006
7,881
549
126
Jaskalas said:
If Russia nukes Ukraine, that does not kill any one of us.
If we uphold MAD and counter launch against Russia for that, everyone dies.

Under this principle, Russia would certainly take a bet that winning the war through WMD is going to be necessary and logical. That we would not kill ourselves for Ukraine.

We may not be willing to attack Russia's military and call their bluff. But let's not think for a second that Putin will hesitate to call ours. What would we REALLY do if Putin kills everyone in Kyiv? He was going to do that with conventional weapons. Soon he may realize his goal can only be achieved through WMD. How different will the punishment be, when the crime was always going to be genocide?

We have already declared that we will not step in to stop a conventional genocide.
Why would we step in to stop any other sort?
Click to expand...

Once he is done with them, who is next?


This nonsense need to be stopped now.
 
JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,300
126
Dave_5k said:
None exist yet as far as I could find, I think Taiwan is up first in 2025:
navalpost.com

The U.S. Delays Delivery of Harpoon Coastal Defense System to Taiwan - Naval Post- Naval News and Information

Taiwan is unlikely to take delivery of the Harpoon Coastal Defense System in 2024 after the United States informs Taiwan that Boeing can only start delivery of equipment in 2025, according to Taiwanese Up Media.
navalpost.com navalpost.com
"In the beginning, the delivery of the missiles was planned for 2024. But at the end of last year, the United States informed Taiwan that due to operational issues and other related issues, the delivery of other equipment will be delayed for one year until the end of 2025"
Click to expand...
the harpoon anti-ship missiles started service in 1977.
it took 45yrs to create a land launched version?!
 
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