Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Brovane]

I wonder what extent of political bullshit/cover Germany is looking for.

Meaning - are they looking for the US to send M1s to give them political cover to authorize a lot of Leopards or are they looking for excuses to not send them?

I think at this point they are just looking for excuses not to send them. I think Germany is worried that Ukraine will use the MBT's to start seriously pushing Russia out of Ukraine including Donbas and Crimea and the Russians will go ape-shit nuclear and Berlin would be a target. Germany probably hopes that there can be negotiated settlement and they are willing to sacrifice chunks of Ukraine to keep the Russians happy.

 

[Dave_5k]

Germany probably hopes that there can be negotiated settlement and they are willing to sacrifice chunks of Ukraine to keep the Russians happy.

Germany was perfectly happy with letting Russia steal Ukrainian land the last two times, as long as German companies and politicians could immediately get back to business as usual with Russia. If Russia had just grabbed a chunk of the Donbas and stopped there, the Germans would have done it a third time in 2022 as well ~ still to be seen if this time is really different now for Germany, but probably not. I fully expect Germany to push to immediately remove sanctions the second that Russia declares the invasion "complete" as long as the Russians agree to stop bombing Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure - even if there still is an active line of conflict.

 

[Indus]

I think at this point they are just looking for excuses not to send them. I think Germany is worried that Ukraine will use the MBT's to start seriously pushing Russia out of Ukraine including Donbas and Crimea and the Russians will go ape-shit nuclear and Berlin would be a target. Germany probably hopes that there can be negotiated settlement and they are willing to sacrifice chunks of Ukraine to keep the Russians happy.

Chicken shit apologists or downright Russkie agents.

 

[itsmydamnation]

i can see a middle ground , 1000 bradleys , 100k tows, tanks not needed

 

[RnR_au]

i can see a middle ground , 1000 bradleys , 100k tows, tanks not needed

Kinda agree with you, but I am concerned about loitering munitions and the affect on Bradleys. I feel tanks should have a higher survivability.

Don't know if Bradleys have an active protection system. One was designed for the K2. This war has made certain that all next-gen tanks will get them.

 

[Racan]

Maybe the Leopards are not that good...

The most likely version to be transferred to Ukraine is the Leopard 2A4 standard which were produced between 1985-1992, so that’s pretty old. What’s worse is that not all A4s are created equal, the older ones have worse armour and Poland’s Leopard 2A4s have the older armour.

If you are to believe this tweet and these documents the British tested the Leo 2A4 and found the protection of the old B armour which Polands Leo 2A4s have to be worse than the Challenger 1.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1265026564070277120

 

[NTMBK]

Chicken shit apologists or downright Russkie agents.

Don't forget the corrupt ones in the pocket of capitalists. Plenty of business interests would be happy to see a "business as usual" reset, so that pesky things like war crimes and genocide don't get in the way of profits.

EDIT: And I'm obviously not just talking about Germany.

 

[pmv]

I think at this point they are just looking for excuses not to send them. I think Germany is worried that Ukraine will use the MBT's to start seriously pushing Russia out of Ukraine including Donbas and Crimea and the Russians will go ape-shit nuclear and Berlin would be a target. Germany probably hopes that there can be negotiated settlement and they are willing to sacrifice chunks of Ukraine to keep the Russians happy.

It's as plausible a theory as any. I really don't know _what_ the Germans are thinking, to be honest. I don't understand German politics or their general outlook, at all. I mean they clearly have a very specific history that influences their attitudes in complicated ways.

Another take on the same question

If Germany has truly learned from its history, it will send tanks to defend Ukraine

While many have pledged support, Germany has a unique historical responsibility toward Zelenskiy and his people. It cannot shirk it, says Guardian columnist Timothy Garton Ash

www.theguardian.com

This was startling

In a recent interview, former chancellor Angela Merkel praised the Netflix drama Munich – The Edge of War for suggesting that Neville Chamberlain might be seen in a more positive light.

 

[K1052]

Meanwhile from actively helpful countries

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616080787656347648

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616082333982924806

 

[K1052]

And Sweden with a large package. The 40mm gun on the CV90 is nice and ammunition essentially unlimited.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616069005176889345

Lithuania will provide 2 helicopters and a lot of 40mm AAA guns.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616083097296211969

 

[Jaskalas]

Seems Poland has a rather strong fear of becoming neighbors with Russia.
Probably because Russia is vowing, and has been seen preparing, to go absolutely all in with every last piece of meat they can throw at Ukraine.
Unless the war is forcefully ended, hundreds of thousands MORE Russians will invade Ukraine this year.

Poland ready to send tanks without Germany’s consent, PM says

 

[K1052]

Seems Poland has a rather strong fear of becoming neighbors with Russia.
Probably because Russia is vowing, and has been seen preparing, to go absolutely all in with every last piece of meat they can throw at Ukraine.
Unless the war is forcefully ended, hundreds of thousands MORE Russians will invade Ukraine this year.

Poland ready to send tanks without Germany’s consent, PM says

Nobody who matters would blame Poland for breaking the re-export agreement at this point. They've bought M1A2 SEPv3s and K2s (some of which will be locally produced through tech transfer). About the worst the Germans could do is block the remaining upgrades of their Leo 2s to 2PL but thats sort of irrelevant if they start transferring the fleet to Ukraine. They are not going to want to operate 3 entirely different MBTs long term anyway.

 

[Ajay]

We should just start installing APUs on older M1A2s (some already have them IIRC) and start shipping them to Ukraine. Enough with this nonsense.

Absolutely! If Scholtz still holds out at the Rammstein meeting, the US will need to forge ahead, IMHO. Two battalions of M1A2 should push the Germans over the edge. We have plenty. The problem is ramp up time, especially logistics as @IronWing alludes to. The Ukrainians could base one battalion each in Kyiv and Kharkiv to discourage a Russian attacks from the north through Belarus and eastern Russia - though it could be too late for that depending on Intel for the current 'exercises' in Belarus.

 

[K1052]

Absolutely! If Scholtz still holds out at the Rammstein meeting, the US will need to forge ahead, IMHO. Two battalions of M1A2 should push the Germans over the edge. We have plenty. The problem is ramp up time, especially logistics as @IronWing alludes to. The Ukrainians could base one battalion each in Kyiv and Kharkiv to discourage a Russian attacks from the north through Belarus and eastern Russia - though it could be too late for that depending on Intel for the current 'exercises' in Belarus.

They could use them in combat. They'd just have to be shipped back to Poland for repairs if required. Poland is presently training up for the Abrams they're getting so it'd be good practice.

This isn't a lot different than the more sophisticated howitzer systems like the PzH 2000s which get shipped to Lithuania for repairs. Depots on Ukrainian territory would be a lot more efficient but due to Russian missile threats aren't really an option right now.

 

[Ajay]

Nobody who matters would blame Poland for breaking the re-export agreement at this point. They've bought M1A2 SEPv3s and K2s (some of which will be locally produced through tech transfer). About the worst the Germans could do is block the remaining upgrades of their Leo 2s to 2PL but thats sort of irrelevant if they start transferring the fleet to Ukraine. They are not going to want to operate 3 entirely different MBTs long term anyway.

A bunch of M1s and Bradleys were recently spotted on trains heading to Poland. Eh, can't find the tweet. I'm sure the M1s are for Poland - not sure about the Bradleys.

They could use them in combat. They'd just have to be shipped back to Poland for repairs if required. Poland is presently training up for the Abrams they're getting so it'd be good practice.

Yes, of course. I'm just a bit concerned about Putin's desire to capture Kyiv and the recent activity in Belarus. The UA will, of course, use them where they are most needed and effective.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Russia deploying mobile SAMs in Moscow?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616103162041241600

 

[fskimospy]

Russia deploying mobile SAMs in Moscow?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616103162041241600

That feeling when your invasion is definitely going like you planned.

 

[cytg111]

Maybe send one without a payload? Just to say "we could if we would". Would probably get a rise out of the locals.

 

[Perknose]

A bunch of M1s and Bradleys were recently spotted on trains heading to Poland. Eh, can't find the tweet. I'm sure the M1s are for Poland - not sure about the Bradleys.



Yes, of course. I'm just a bit concerned about Putin's desire to capture Kyiv and the recent activity in Belarus. The UA will, of course, use them where they are most needed and effective.

Here 'ya go:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615767447230890006

 

[K1052]

That feeling when your invasion is definitely going like you planned.

Feb 2022: We will destroy Ukraine, kill Zelensky, and reclaim the empire that is rightfully ours. NATO beware.

Jan 2023: Please helicopter wheeled SAM systems to available tall buildings in Moscow to defend against Ukrainian drones.

 

[Ajay]

Here 'ya go:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615767447230890006

Wow, you really are omnipotent - and I thought that was a joke

 

[K1052]

Special Operation proceeding according to plan comrades.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616111872893239301

 

[K1052]

Here 'ya go:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615767447230890006

The US is also deploying some armored elements to the Baltics, specifically Lithuania. Could be where these are headed.

 

[K1052]

Showdown at Ramstein imminent.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616115229250797587

 

[rommelrommel]

Special Operation proceeding according to plan comrades.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616111872893239301

Yes, I know we’ve destroyed their air force two or three times over and have S500 batteries around Moscow that have extremely good capabilities we’re completely confident in, but putting short range air defence trucks on buildings is a totally reasonable approach given the previous two absolutely true things.