Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Is that before or after 200,000 more Russians enter Ukraine?
Our help always seems to arrive a bit late, after a lot of damage has been done.

Likely waiting on Congress to pass the omni next week which includes some $40B in new aid before making more big ticket draws.
 
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Young Grasshopper

Senior member
Nov 9, 2007
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Have you ever read the Minsk agreements?

If so, or if you could be bothered to read them, please direct me to the part of either Minsk agreement that would suggest at all that Ukraine would be prohibited from using any intervening peace to strengthen its military.


NATO/Ukraine never intended any kind of peace agreement, and continued shelling the Donbass for 8 more years. The whole agreement was to stop the shelling. It was just a stalling tactic to get more arms/training into Ukraine to one day fight Russia. This was confirmed by the former president of Ukraine, and now Angela Merkel.

Last time I checked war is the opposite of peace.

A better question would be have you read it? Sounds like you need to skim thru the basics.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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The withering hand of war?

It seems like the Ukrainians are at their limit after the fall offensive. The problem, well one, in the potential upcoming Russian counter attack is their ability to bring in the heavy equipment close enough to Ukraine to quickly move them into place once the ground hardens. This is an untenable position for Ukraine to be in. They need to be able to push that (artillery, tanks, whatever) as far back as possible. Actually, they need to destroy them before any even cross the border. Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs with 160km ranges will help, but they already needed to be in place, and, of course, are not. ATACMS definitely would have forced the Russians to do a 180 on their existing operational plan.

We are unable to offer enough timely support to Ukraine to protect their infrastructure. Half the country is in the dark - the nights becoming very long and very cold. At present, the US and NATO are just prolonging the war. This looks to go on till Putin croaks, or falls out a window. The Russians are in the process or retooling their war machine and don't mind sending young, inexperience, underequipped soldiers to their deaths as a delaying tactic; while wearing down the Ukrainian soldiers with the unending fighting. It's all looking grim at the moment.

Maybe after fighting too many wars that accomplished too little, America is just unable to commit. That's too bad. Ukraine is going to be nothing but a smoldering landscape of decimated cities with too many dead soldiers and civilians. The ghost of post WWII Europe. Their country will take 20+ years to be restored to what it was before the war, with many, many reminders of grim nature of the war they fought.

Russia has been very effective at punishing NATO - pushing economies to the limit just by messing with this smallish country and closing off the taps to their energy supplies. Europe won't be able to contribute as much to the rebuilding of Ukraine as it will need when this end. Russia, when it eventually backs down, won't be helpful either. Putin will have bankrupted the Russian state. In Russia, the poor are feeling the pain as the poor always do. The middle class as well, and just holding their breath as they have no power to act. The upper classes have likewise been stripped of power or frightened into not acting - looking the other way just hoping to keep their wealth, and businesses reasonably intact. Russia has effectively silenced almost all dissent within - something they are well practiced at.

I'm shocked that despite all our intelligence, we didn't know that the Russian military was in such a disastrous state when it started the war. Keeping our powder dry assuming a quick defeat. Instead we see something like Assad's Syria, not just bombing his "adversaries' into submission - but content with destroying their homes, places of work, infrastructure and all commerce - leaving the masses with nothing to do but leave or live meager lives in rubble.

I'm fairly saddened at what has happened and is still to come. That this massive military power we possess cannot effectively come to the aid of one fairly small fledgeling democracy, implies all this talk of being able to fight two and a half wars at once is just that - talk.

I think we can let a few dogs of war out to truly menace the russian army (and Putin by proxy). We can keep them on a short enough leash to prevent WWIII. Or we can just leave Ukraine in it's own quagmire - hoping and praying that Putin will die and keep Ukrainians on life support till his rule ends. Their success in the fall showed their courage - and that they have no back bench to keep the momentum up.

So, do we leave this withering hand of war hanging over Ukraine on the edge of Europe, or do we cast it aside and supplant it with the muscular arm of power projection, the very thing our politicians and military told us we have?

We wouldn't need to ask Ukraine for it's answer twice.

Think about it.
 
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alien42

Lifer
Nov 28, 2004
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The withering hand of war?

It seems like the Ukrainians are at their limit after the fall offensive.

says who, Putin?

We are unable to offer enough timely support to Ukraine to protect their infrastructure.

just this week, Ukraine shot down ALL drones attacking Kiev.

Russia has been very effective at punishing NATO - pushing economies to the limit just by messing with this smallish country and closing off the taps to their energy supplies.

how's Russia's military doing?

that's enough easily debunked Russian propaganda for me to completely dismiss your entire post.
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
12,097
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The withering hand of war?

It seems like the Ukrainians are at their limit after the fall offensive. The problem, well one, in the potential upcoming Russian counter attack is their ability to bring in the heavy equipment close enough to Ukraine to quickly move them into place once the ground hardens. This is an untenable position for Ukraine to be in. They need to be able to push that (artillery, tanks, whatever) as far back as possible. Actually, they need to destroy them before any even cross the border. Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs with 160km ranges will help, but they already needed to be in place, and, of course, are not. ATACMS definitely would have forced the Russians to do a 180 on their existing operational plan.

We are unable to offer enough timely support to Ukraine to protect their infrastructure. Half the country is in the dark - the nights becoming very long and very cold. At present, the US and NATO are just prolonging the war. This looks to go on till Putin croaks, or falls out a window. The Russians are in the process or retooling their war machine and don't mind sending young, inexperience, underequipped soldiers to their deaths as a delaying tactic; while wearing down the Ukrainian soldiers with the unending fighting. It's all looking grim at the moment.

Maybe after fighting too many wars that accomplished too little, America is just unable to commit. That's too bad. Ukraine is going to be nothing but a smoldering landscape of decimated cities with too many dead soldiers and civilians. The ghost of post WWII Europe. Their country will take 20+ years to be restored to what it was before the war, with many, many reminders of grim nature of the war they fought.

Russia has been very effective at punishing NATO - pushing economies to the limit just by messing with this smallish country and closing off the taps to their energy supplies. Europe won't be able to contribute as much to the rebuilding of Ukraine as it will need when this end. Russia, when it eventually backs down, won't be helpful either. Putin will have bankrupted the Russian state. In Russia, the poor are feeling the pain as the poor always do. The middle class as well, and just holding their breath as they have no power to act. The upper classes have likewise been stripped of power or frightened into not acting - looking the other way just hoping to keep their wealth, and businesses reasonably intact. Russia has effectively silenced almost all dissent within - something they are well practiced at.

I'm shocked that despite all our intelligence, we didn't know that the Russian military was in such a disastrous state when it started the war. Keeping our powder dry assuming a quick defeat. Instead we see something like Assad's Syria, not just bombing his "adversaries' into submission - but content with destroying their homes, places of work, infrastructure and all commerce - leaving the masses with nothing to do but leave or live meager lives in rubble.

I'm fairly saddened at what has happened and is still to come. That this massive military power we possess cannot effectively come to the aid of one fairly small fledgeling democracy, implies all this talk of being able to fight two and a half wars at once is just that - talk.

I think we can let a few dogs of war out to truly menace the russian army (and Putin by proxy). We can keep them on a short enough leash to prevent WWIII. Or we can just leave Ukraine in it's own quagmire - hoping and praying that Putin will die and keep Ukrainians on life support till his rule ends. Their success in the fall showed their courage - and that they have no back bench to keep the momentum up.

So, do we leave this withering hand of war hanging over Ukraine on the edge of Europe, or do we cast it aside and supplant it with the muscular arm of power projection, the very thing our politicians and military told us we have?

We wouldn't need to ask Ukraine for it's answer twice.

Think about it.

Where are you getting this from? Who are your sources?

And are you looking at it from the American viewpoint or Russia's friends viewpoint.

Because even a blind man can see America is looking better today than it was in January. We can chill while one of our two biggest enemies is engaged in a long excruciating bloody war and sacrificing its own demographics to make a political point.

If we're conservative and say Russia has lost 100k men.. how many are wounded so bad they are unable to function?

Do Russia spend time and money getting them back to work like we do with prosthetics and surgeries so they can have a useful happy long life?
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,831
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Another go at Kyiv?

I defer to the man of course but part of me kinda doubts that. Belarus being a help isn't going to happen. Another 200k Russians? Russia can barely support the targets they have in Ukraine now.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
46,574
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Another go at Kyiv?

I defer to the man of course but part of me kinda doubts that. Belarus being a help isn't going to happen. Another 200k Russians? Russia can barely support the targets they have in Ukraine now.
We are both, you and I, prisoners of the info stream we consume. It is "biased" towards providing positive views of the situation of the UKA, with which I have zero problems, it must be said. I don't know, and you likely don't know either, the objective truth of the situation, but I have a "feels" it is more problematic for Ukraine than I would like to believe.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
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says who, Putin?

Zelensky, in so many words. Journalists. Others. You can check twitter for open source intel. ISW@TheStudyffWar - keeps pretty good track.
We are seeing, in large part, WWII style trench warfare in many of the contested areas along the LOC.

just this week, Ukraine shot down ALL drones attacking Kiev.
That's one city.

how's Russia's military doing?
Poorly overall, but better of late:
that's enough easily debunked Russian propaganda for me to completely dismiss your entire post.
Hmm, good for you. But, what do you think about the current situation.


The above is a short essay. I didn't want to make it more of a journalistic piece by adding in all the source. The point was just to get people thinking about whether we (the USA) need to more. Lots of people are dying, and a country is being slowly pummeled into the ground - it's cities destroyed, etc.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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Because even a blind man can see America is looking better today than it was in January. We can chill while one of our two biggest enemies is engaged in a long excruciating bloody war and sacrificing its own demographics to make a political point.
I'm sure the Ukrainians would love to have you explain to them how their deaths are improving our position against Russia. Quite heart warming I imagine.
 
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KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
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Blasted paywall! Is there a way around it. Some of the denizens of this forums seem to have no problem with paywalls.
i'm using an extension called Bypass Paywalls Clean on firefox....not sure if it's available on other platforms, another way to get around them is to use archive.vn and then enter in the paywalled link (works great), the Economist article is listed below

 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
12,097
8,460
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The above is a short essay. I didn't want to make it more of a journalistic piece by adding in all the source. The point was just to get people thinking about whether we (the USA) need to more. Lots of people are dying, and a country is being slowly pummeled into the ground - it's cities destroyed, etc.

I'm sure the Ukrainians would love to have you explain to them how their deaths are improving our position against Russia. Quite heart warming I imagine.


Have you seen videos of Ukrainians?
Do you hear them crying about it?
What do they want?

TO DRIVE RUSSIA OUT OF THEIR HOME!
Just like the Afghans did.

So I don't think its so evil to give the people what they want!


And I never knew someone could be become so fucking stupid to been had by the Russian propaganda!

If Russia invades America and is bombing our cities.. would we rather make peace or kick them out? Use some fucking COMMON SENSE.

Russia doesn't want resources, it wants complete extermination of Ukrainian ethnicity, dialect and its people. They want to be able to say this is Russia and Ukraine never existed. Till they move onto the next target.. likely Poland and then the next.
 
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Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
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Blasted paywall! Is there a way around it. Some of the denizens of this forums seem to have no problem with paywalls.
I was once a paying customer of the Economist. No longer, but when I logged in anyway, I could read the article. Probably one of those "first 1-3 are free" things. Try registering.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
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We are both, you and I, prisoners of the info stream we consume. It is "biased" towards providing positive views of the situation of the UKA, with which I have zero problems, it must be said. I don't know, and you likely don't know either, the objective truth of the situation, but I have a "feels" it is more problematic for Ukraine than I would like to believe.

Oh no I agree, which was why I immediately deferred to his position, experience, knowledge and responsibilities. He's 'in the know' in ways no one else really can be.

Having said that, there are matters both practical and strategic that make me wonder if by 'having a go' he meant attacking with missiles, rather than storming the place like they tried to last time.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
12,097
8,460
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We are both, you and I, prisoners of the info stream we consume. It is "biased" towards providing positive views of the situation of the UKA, with which I have zero problems, it must be said. I don't know, and you likely don't know either, the objective truth of the situation, but I have a "feels" it is more problematic for Ukraine than I would like to believe.

There is bad news too.. not just good..

For example from yesterday:


Constant Russian shelling of Kherson this morning, has now left Kherson with no power whatsoever.
During the shelling, a centre, where locals could go for medical treatment and receive humanitarian aid was hit, killing a female paramedic and an elderly man.


and


Russian troops in Melitopol are refusing to stay in bases/barracks due to HIMARS strikes.
So they just throw locals out of big houses and stay there.
They then loot the smaller houses for food, and smash anything wooden up, for fire wood.
Russian command apparently said they will not be provided with food or fire wood through the winter.
 
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Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
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There is bad news too.. not just good..

For example from yesterday:


Constant Russian shelling of Kherson this morning, has now left Kherson with no power whatsoever.
During the shelling, a centre, where locals could go for medical treatment and receive humanitarian aid was hit, killing a female paramedic and an elderly man.


and


Russian troops in Melitopol are refusing to stay in bases/barracks due to HIMARS strikes.
So they just throw locals out of big houses and stay there.
They then loot the smaller houses for food, and smash anything wooden up, for fire wood.
Russian command apparently said they will not be provided with food or fire wood through the winter.
Brutality is the Russian way. Never underestimate it. :(
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
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And I never knew someone could be become so fucking stupid to been had by the Russian propaganda!
Please. Official Russian info is completely lies. I don't pay any attention to that. Also, how can I be seduced by Russian propaganda if I'm am suggesting that the US (and NATO) need to get ahead of this war and intervene proactively instead of reactively?? I'm suggesting that the Ukrainians need to be able to destroy Russian tanks and artillery before they arrive at the Rus/Ukr border. Man, I'm am such a Russian puppet :rolleyes:.

Doesn't anyone pay attention to what others actually write on these boards anymore? I have a pretty good idea what other people's positions are based on what they have written in the past - maybe I'm old fashion.
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
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NATO/Ukraine never intended any kind of peace agreement, and continued shelling the Donbass for 8 more years. The whole agreement was to stop the shelling. It was just a stalling tactic to get more arms/training into Ukraine to one day fight Russia. This was confirmed by the former president of Ukraine, and now Angela Merkel.

Last time I checked war is the opposite of peace.

A better question would be have you read it? Sounds like you need to skim thru the basics.

That’s a lot of words to say that no, you either haven’t read it or you’re incapable of understanding it.

Seeing as Minsk was flawed from the start and no one seemed too interested in making concessions to implement it, Russia and LNR/DNR included, how do you possibly get to blaming NATO?

You assert that Minsk was simply intended to give Ukraine time to build military power.

How would have implementing Minsk have helped Ukraine do this?

If Minsk was intended by Ukraine to help them build up their forces why did they not implement it?

If your assertion is true that Minsk was intended from the start to help Ukraine build more combat power it seems that Ukraine would then want to implement it even if that meant withdrawing from the contested areas that Minsk failed to address, and even accepting some LNR/DNR provocations.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
12,097
8,460
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Please. Official Russian info is completely lies. I don't pay any attention to that. Also, how can I be seduced by Russian propaganda if I'm am suggesting that the US (and NATO) need to get ahead of this war and intervene proactively instead of reactively?? I'm suggesting that the Ukrainians need to be able to destroy Russian tanks and artillery before they arrive at the Rus/Ukr border. Man, I'm am such a Russian puppet :rolleyes:.

Doesn't anyone pay attention to what others actually write on these boards anymore? I have a pretty good idea what other people's positions are based on what they have written in the past - maybe I'm old fashion.

Well that's the first time I'm actually reading you say something like that!

GG coming to the side of reason.

Yep we do need to give them more stuff.

After all we know who the bad guys are: