The withering hand of war?
It seems like the Ukrainians are at their limit after the fall offensive. The problem, well one, in the potential upcoming Russian counter attack is their ability to bring in the heavy equipment close enough to Ukraine to quickly move them into place once the ground hardens. This is an untenable position for Ukraine to be in. They need to be able to push that (artillery, tanks, whatever) as far back as possible. Actually, they need to destroy them before any even cross the border. Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs with 160km ranges will help, but they already needed to be in place, and, of course, are not. ATACMS definitely would have forced the Russians to do a 180 on their existing operational plan.
We are unable to offer enough timely support to Ukraine to protect their infrastructure. Half the country is in the dark - the nights becoming very long and very cold. At present, the US and NATO are just prolonging the war. This looks to go on till Putin croaks, or falls out a window. The Russians are in the process or retooling their war machine and don't mind sending young, inexperience, underequipped soldiers to their deaths as a delaying tactic; while wearing down the Ukrainian soldiers with the unending fighting. It's all looking grim at the moment.
Maybe after fighting too many wars that accomplished too little, America is just unable to commit. That's too bad. Ukraine is going to be nothing but a smoldering landscape of decimated cities with too many dead soldiers and civilians. The ghost of post WWII Europe. Their country will take 20+ years to be restored to what it was before the war, with many, many reminders of grim nature of the war they fought.
Russia has been very effective at punishing NATO - pushing economies to the limit just by messing with this smallish country and closing off the taps to their energy supplies. Europe won't be able to contribute as much to the rebuilding of Ukraine as it will need when this end. Russia, when it eventually backs down, won't be helpful either. Putin will have bankrupted the Russian state. In Russia, the poor are feeling the pain as the poor always do. The middle class as well, and just holding their breath as they have no power to act. The upper classes have likewise been stripped of power or frightened into not acting - looking the other way just hoping to keep their wealth, and businesses reasonably intact. Russia has effectively silenced almost all dissent within - something they are well practiced at.
I'm shocked that despite all our intelligence, we didn't know that the Russian military was in such a disastrous state when it started the war. Keeping our powder dry assuming a quick defeat. Instead we see something like Assad's Syria, not just bombing his "adversaries' into submission - but content with destroying their homes, places of work, infrastructure and all commerce - leaving the masses with nothing to do but leave or live meager lives in rubble.
I'm fairly saddened at what has happened and is still to come. That this massive military power we possess cannot effectively come to the aid of one fairly small fledgeling democracy, implies all this talk of being able to fight two and a half wars at once is just that - talk.
I think we can let a few dogs of war out to truly menace the russian army (and Putin by proxy). We can keep them on a short enough leash to prevent WWIII. Or we can just leave Ukraine in it's own quagmire - hoping and praying that Putin will die and keep Ukrainians on life support till his rule ends. Their success in the fall showed their courage - and that they have no back bench to keep the momentum up.
So, do we leave this withering hand of war hanging over Ukraine on the edge of Europe, or do we cast it aside and supplant it with the muscular arm of power projection, the very thing our politicians and military told us we have?
We wouldn't need to ask Ukraine for it's answer twice.
Think about it.