Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

Page 76 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
24,273
10,933
136
Of course it was for my consumption! Not exclusively, but the entire world is the audience for these false flag attempts.

Putin doesn't need much of an excuse inside of Russia because as you say he can just arrest the dissenters. If you have a more effective propaganda campaign though then you splinter the western response, you probably lessen sanctions, etc. I mean if Ukraine really was committing genocide in its east this invasion would be very different to a lot of people in the west. Biden did a really good job in denying Putin that.
So far, he's (Putin), at least, undone most Trump attempts to dismantle NATO. I would call that a strategic blunder on his part. Just another ego maniac like Trump, except he has no guardrails.
 
  • Like
Reactions: iRONic

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
This needs to stop. Putin will get stronger if he takes Ukraine and continue on. I think the wildcard here is China - I think the US might have to make some kind of backdoor deal with China to keep them out and keep Putin at bay with nukes (and worry about Taiwan when that time comes). Even if it comes as some kind of inflationary cost to me, I'm willing to take it. This situation is too messed up. I'm sitting here safe in my geographically isolated part of the world while people are fleeing their democracy not too far from where my parents from.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
4,179
6,222
136
Official accession to NATO would still probably take at least a few weeks if all the stops were pulled out. Once the request is made the US could elect to provide interim protection at the invitation of those governments until accession is complete. Realistically the Russians aren't in much of a position to do anything about it since the vast majority of their forces are deployed in and around Ukraine.

Wow, so in this scenario U.S. soldiers would be in active combat against Russia, right?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,061
8,082
136
This needs to stop. Putin will get stronger if he takes Ukraine and continue on. I think the wildcard here is China - I think the US might have to make some kind of backdoor deal with China to keep them out and keep Putin at bay with nukes (and worry about Taiwan when that time comes). Even if it comes as some kind of inflationary cost to me, I'm willing to take it. This situation is too messed up. I'm sitting here safe in my geographically isolated part of the world while people are fleeing their democracy not too far from where my parents from.

Not sure what you mean, China would want nothing less than Taiwan and the entire Asian Pacific region before they oppose Russia in any meaningful way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: hal2kilo

eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
9,828
5,008
136
So far, he's (Putin), at least, undone most Trump attempts to dismantle NATO. I would call that a strategic blunder on his part. Just another ego maniac like Trump, except he has no guardrails.
But that’s just it. Why didn’t Putin do this when NATO was divided?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,710
51,001
136
But that’s just it. Why didn’t Putin do this when NATO was divided?
I think it's the old saying 'never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.' Trump was in the process of destroying NATO and had Putin attacked Ukraine at that time something similar would have happened to what's happening now. Trump was quoted as saying he would withdraw the US from NATO if he won a second term so when he lost Putin's dream died - so no need to wait anymore.
 

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
7,060
8,607
136
As I understand it .... The U.S. is hesitant to block Russia from SWIFT, in part because doing so could push the global economy away from the U.S. dollar. I assume that does run the risk of SWIFT ceasing to be seen as a neutral banking network and an instrument of foreign policy. An issue which has already risen due to Iran sanctions.

China just announced that it will be upping its wheat and other grain imports from Russia, along with the already planned increase in gas, oil, and coal imports from Russia. Which will probably help to mitigate some sanctions the west imposes. I’m not sure that anything that the west would be willing to impose would actually hurt the Russians that badly in the face of something like that.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,241
37,648
136
As I understand it .... The U.S. is hesitant to block Russia from SWIFT, in part because doing so could push the global economy away from the U.S. dollar. I assume that does run the risk of SWIFT ceasing to be seen as a neutral banking network and an instrument of foreign policy. An issue which has already risen due to Iran sanctions.

China just announced that it will be upping its wheat and other grain imports from Russia, along with the already planned increase in gas, oil, and coal imports from Russia. Which will probably help to mitigate some sanctions the west imposes. I’m not sure that anything that the west would be willing to impose would actually hurt the Russians that badly in the face of something like that.

Europe seems more worried about that than the US. I expect this will be the final option and probably won't be exercised yet.

China has some ability to absorb Russian exports except not really gas. Limited pipeline capacity between Russia and China prevents this. Most likely consequence for China is that Taiwan gets everything on its defense shopping list and then some.
 

pauldun170

Diamond Member
Sep 26, 2011
9,142
5,089
136
I know everyone is getting into their pseudo Americano war face mode and are beating off at the possibility of escalation beyond Russia\Ukraine so I'd figure I'd toss my little thought into the ring.
If Russia or Belarus fucked up and actually made the comical mistake of attacking, lets say Romania or Latvia and NATO issued the form Voltron order...
What would Turkey do?
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,314
9,170
136
I know everyone is getting into their pseudo Americano war face mode and are beating off at the possibility of escalation beyond Russia\Ukraine so I'd figure I'd toss my little though into the ring.
If Russia or Belarus fucked up and actually made the comical mistake of attacking, lets say Romania or Latvia and NATO issued the form Voltron order...
What would Turkey do?

My guess is they'd wait and see what the rest of NATO did and follow along. Even then, largely support role. Allow/assist US operations against any Black Sea naval assets on the other side. Bases for air operations.

They're not gonna lead the charge ...
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,061
8,082
136
If Russia or Belarus fucked up and actually made the comical mistake of attacking, lets say Romania or Latvia and NATO issued the form Voltron order...
What would Turkey do?

1: Wrong direction.
2: Distance is a bit far for a mistaken shot.

I don't see it happening, if an accident does occur they'll simply demand compensation and move on.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,314
9,170
136
1: Wrong direction.
2: Distance is a bit far for a mistaken shot.

I don't see it happening, if an accident does occur they'll simply demand compensation and move on.

Yeah, a more likely victim would be Poland instead. At least there's a shared border. It would be more believable as an accident at least. The countries he mentioned would be much more of a provocation ...
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,241
5,810
126
I wonder... with the correct weather pattern, would a bombardment of Chernobyl act like a dirty bomb over Russia?
It would do far more than that, but... I think Ukraine's enemies would be the primary victims of such an event.

As I recall, Chernobyl fallout traveled mainly Westward across Europe, not Russia.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Homerboy

Artorias

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2014
2,148
1,435
136
If NATO went to war with Russia I would be VERY worried.

All you have to do is convince enough people the other side will use nukes to justify using them yourself. This fear is not trivial. Russia gets annihilated conventionally by the Westearn forces otherwise.

Putin is a madman.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
36,207
30,740
136
Also as far as I can tell for the actual players involved the concern in cutting Russia off from swift is western organizations being unable to get their money out of Russia, not that Putin will lob nukes everywhere in response, because the idea he would do that is insane.
Anyone with money tied up in Russia at this point deserves to lose that money.
Not even sure why he's doing the whole 'french lace of authenticity' thing. Like, dude doesn't really need a 'reason' to invade Ukraine if the end result is the same. Nobody's going to believe it anyhow.
Putin thinks the rest of the world is as stupid as American conservatives are.
 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
A comprehensive list of equipment losses so far

Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)

This is a bit dated from earlier this morning
Julian Röpcke🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Here is my first #UkraineUnderAttack map, based on - very conservative - fighting and troop movement geolocations as well as Ukrainian army reports. It looks grim. https://t.co/ZydRlyLV5E" / Twitter
read down the tweet responses for more current information

will post as I have time, things are pretty hectic here at work and certainly more so by orders of magnitude with Ukraine invasion