Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
41,180
21,403
136
Somebody go squeeze Scholz's nuts hard enough for him to give up some IRIS-T SLMs right now to bubble a decent sized chunk of territory around Lviv so we can build proper training facilities for Ukrainian troops in country, organize repair depot/schools for western weapons, and safeguard ongoing Ukrainian weapons production.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
4,473
494
126
Maximum pressure on Ukraine and the West for a negotiated solution with Russia keeping territory.
I don't think the people of Ukraine want a negotiated settlement with Russia keeping territory. They are out for blood after what the Russians have done to Ukraine. Even people living in Ukraine who used to lean towards Russian have seen now what Russia is capable of and do not want to live under Russian control.
 

RnR_au

Senior member
Jun 6, 2021
676
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I don't think the people of Ukraine want a negotiated settlement with Russia keeping territory. They are out for blood after what the Russians have done to Ukraine. Even people living in Ukraine who used to lean towards Russian have seen now what Russia is capable of and do not want to live under Russian control.
Completely agree with you. At the risk of looking like I'm waiving in my support for Ukraine (I hope my posting history answers that question) but does the West have enough ammo to send 1mil poorly trained and equipped men back to Russia with the tail between their legs?

Its roughly 5 times the ammo that has already been sent... ie vs 200k troops.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
77,065
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Completely agree with you. At the risk of looking like I'm waiving in my support for Ukraine (I hope my posting history answers that question) but does the West have enough ammo to send 1mil poorly trained and equipped men back to Russia with the tail between their legs?

Its roughly 5 times the ammo that has already been sent... ie vs 200k troops.
These are going to be miserably trained and equipped troops with rock bottom morale. I don't think they will need to kill them all.
 

RnR_au

Senior member
Jun 6, 2021
676
1,777
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These are going to be miserably trained and equipped troops with rock bottom morale. I don't think they will need to kill them all.
Agree. And they haven't killed all of the 200k sent against Ukraine for the current results with Ukraine being on the ascent. But to get there, they have used a shit tonne of ammo.

To scale that 5 times. Over the next few years?
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
77,065
33,903
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Agree. And they haven't killed all of the 200k sent against Ukraine for the current results with Ukraine being on ascent. But to get there, they have used a shit tonne of ammo.

To scale that 5 times. Over the next few years?
Considering the poor condition of the 'real' Russian army I think there's a high chance these troops are next to worthless. If that's the case they will fall apart very quickly.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
10,969
5,734
136
Bomp bomp bomp, another one bites the dust...

"Anatoly Gerashchenko, the former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute (MAI), died after reportedly falling down a series of flights of stairs on Tuesday."

So what's the theory about what's going on there? Is the implication that these are potential rivals of Putin, who are being eliminated to keep him safe?

There's been quite a few of them, but the puzzling thing is that they don't seem to be active opposition figures more former-allies who aren't important to him any more. Is the suggestion that they they potentially have dirt on him? Or is it just a case of playing safe and eliminating any _potential_ rival, even if they aren't actively opposing him yet?
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
41,180
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I don't think the mobilization is likely to be decisive given the low quality of troops it will produce but that's a chance which should not be taken.

Europe and the US should redouble its efforts to train and equip as many Ukrainian units as practical. Recommit heavy weapons via more tanks, artillery, drones, missiles, air defense, mortars, aircraft, etc.
 

Dave_5k

Senior member
May 23, 2017
916
1,812
136
Over 70% of russians support his adventures. They both can burn in hell.
Common Russian opinion, even when they have relatives in Ukraine, is Ukrainians aren't really people & it is morally right to kill them... the anti-draft protests aren't against the genocide in Ukraine, they just want to send others off to kill/die.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
22,550
21,999
136
So what's the theory about what's going on there? Is the implication that these are potential rivals of Putin, who are being eliminated to keep him safe?

There's been quite a few of them, but the puzzling thing is that they don't seem to be active opposition figures more former-allies who aren't important to him any more. Is the suggestion that they they potentially have dirt on him? Or is it just a case of playing safe and eliminating any _potential_ rival, even if they aren't actively opposing him yet?
I don't know anything about this guy. I've never even heard his name before.

But if I had to guess, it's either the natural attrition of people within a mafia org once funds start becoming scarce, or it's a case of Putin getting wind that the person in question was talking to 3rd parties he considers a threat. Maybe a mix of both. Certain topics, Putin's successor for instance, if tracked to their sources, would likely equal immediate retirement. He'd probably doubletime it if that person had info useful to NATO. Putin was particularly embarrassed by a number of defections in the Obama years, also tried to make examples out of defectors in the UK a few times as I'm sure you'll remember. Remaking the image of Russia's clandestine services has been a thing for him, hence getting involved personally in making Maria Butina a celebrity.

Just hard to say overrall. When dictators are desperate and fearful, they stop taking chances when it comes to loyalty at home. Shit look what we got Stalin to do. This guy could have done absolutely nothing, and/or maybe his death was a message meant for others. I've noticed Dugin's criticism of the Russian military and Putin's handling of it has become more restrained, he's in cheerleader mode now. How about that, almost like he received his own message.
 
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Dave_5k

Senior member
May 23, 2017
916
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Not seen much written about it yet, but it should be quite close to fall mud season (rainy season before snow) across much of Ukraine - which will make offensives / counter-offensives and maneuver warfare quite difficult & much more limited to roads. Once mud season sets in, would expect front lines to stagnate again - Ukraine's counter offensive may be running out of time to regain territory.
 
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Zor Prime

Senior member
Nov 7, 1999
536
158
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Supposedly separatists in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia are voting to join Russia this Friday. Looks like "full" mobilization is almost here. I worry this will end up with Russia being able to justify doing all sorts of nasty shit -- not that we will agree with a single bit of it.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
22,550
21,999
136
These are going to be miserably trained and equipped troops with rock bottom morale. I don't think they will need to kill them all.
I just hope Ukraine is throwing a lot of resources into preparing POW containment. Pretty sure we're going to be seeing Iraqi conscript levels of surrender at some point.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
10,969
5,734
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Completely agree with you. At the risk of looking like I'm waiving in my support for Ukraine (I hope my posting history answers that question) but does the West have enough ammo to send 1mil poorly trained and equipped men back to Russia with the tail between their legs?

Its roughly 5 times the ammo that has already been sent... ie vs 200k troops.
Seems a politically-dangerous way to try to win a war - trading lives for ammo, and hoping the other side run out of bullets before you run out of people. I suspect the Western public's willingness to supply Ukraine with ammunition is likely to last longer than the Russian public's willingness to supply Putin with their sons.
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,281
2,263
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Seems a politically-dangerous way to try to win a war - trading lives for ammo, and hoping the other side run out of bullets before you run out of people. I suspect the Western public's willingness to supply Ukraine with ammunition is likely to last longer than the Russian public's willingness to supply Putin with their sons.
In addition i dont think AFU has to do much besides hold a perimeter and let winter do the rest. Encircled troops or troops otherwise unable to be resuplied are dead, plain and simple.
 
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