Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Leeea

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2020
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When Lithuania first started inspecting Kaliningrad raid transport after Russia violated EU sanctions on transfers, Russia threatened war.
Lithuania then expanded its program to all traffic.

It seems war is no longer on the table, and now we are talking "harsh measures":


Once again showing Russia only understands once thing: Force.
Diplomacy is irrelevant.
Negotiation is viewed as weakness.
The only correct action is to punch Russia in the face and watch the Russian "bear" fold like the pathetic joke it is.
 
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Leeea

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2020
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Will they commit troops?
Can China afford for Russia to bite the dust?
China? No way China is committing troops.

I think the Chinese are hoping Russia will bite the dust. Remember, they teach their school children Outer Manchuria is part of China, and it was taken from China during the century of humiliation by an unequal treaty.

China's long term goal is likely to take back what China feels is China's.

 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
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China? No way China is committing troops.

I think the Chinese are hoping Russia will bite the dust. Remember, they teach their school children Outer Manchuria is part of China, and it was taken from China during the century of humiliation by an unequal treaty.

China's long term goal is likely to take back what China feels is China's.

I hope this includes Moscow...
 

RnR_au

Senior member
Jun 6, 2021
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Will they commit troops?
Can China afford for Russia to bite the dust?
The USA have already sanctioned 5 Chinese companies for shipping tech substitutes to Russia. If the Chinese committed troops, they would lose the European and American Export markets at minimum. Their economy would crater.

China is walking a thin line. Recently their foreign minister wouldn't answer questions on if they supported Russia's territorial expansion.
 

Atari2600

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2016
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What I fear is with Russia willing to move to a war economy but missing tech imports, they are just going to field tons of dumb munitions and basically level everything. It's going to cost Ukraine more lives to go on the offensive and retake land.
No

They'll just end up shipping both equipment and people to Ukraine and get them destroyed by modern, guided, longer-ranged munitions.

Its like giving someone a new sword when they are facing longbows. Doesn't matter a damn.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
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Ukraine is having a party with many depots in occupied Donetsk the last couple days.

I saw a story that Reznikov is still pressing for ATACMS and that while the US still saying no for now we are increasingly comfortable that they won't use the systems against Russian territory and are using them very effectively. He also specifically mentioned they could use something with 150km range which is the publicly stated capability of ER-GMLRS. Those rockets are supposed to be in production very soon if not already. Per Russian Telegram channels their S-300/S-400s are unable to track and/or engage incoming GMLRS, much to the frustration of the troops. ER-GMLRS would be a major threat to these sites.
 

Leeea

Platinum Member
Apr 3, 2020
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I like this guys analysis of the situation. He gives a clear professional overview of the situation without being bias to one side or the other.

War in Ukraine: Luhansk has fallen - what's to expect?
excellent video, especially with the troop movements. Best explanation of unit positions I have seen.


However, he does show his bias when he refers to Russian occupation as "liberation".



However, he does make some claims that seem a bit of a push. For example, he correctly claims the retreat from Luhansk was chaos, but then he incorrectly claims some enough Ukrainian forces were left behind to hurt the Ukrainian position. However, there are Russian sources complaining all the Ukrainian escaped. Ukraine itself claims all organized military forces escaped. His claim appears unsupportable.


His claims of estimated force levels levels appear to be straight bullshit. He appears to just pull that out of his ass. He makes the aggressive claim that 1 in 4 defending Ukrainians have been taken out, and makes no attempt to support it. He also claims that Russian has increased its strength in the area in the same time frame, which is basically drinking the Russian cool aid at that point.


His biggest problem is he is trying to hard to be neutral. He is treating Russian propaganda as valid sources of information, which makes many of his conclusions deeply flawed.


His analyst of the movement of troops are excellent. His projections of what will happen in the winter are silly and absurd.
 
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