Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Heartbreaker]

The Mexico analogy is very weak. A better way to look at it would be to pretend that the US-Mexican border was actually split between about five countries. Three of the 5 are already part of a Chinese military alliance - is the idea that a fourth joining is now an intolerable security risk? Come on.

This is an even weaker analogy because the USA would never have allowed any of the other 3 to happen in the first place.

As before, we have to deal with the world as it is.

How about answering the question as proposed?

Also, the US only supplied Ukraine with weapons in RESPONSE to Russian invasion. You can't use the response to invasion as an excuse to justify it.

Did you forget that Trump started shipping weapons to the Ukraine? Don't you remember the "Obama gave them pillows, and I gave them tank busters ".

 

[uallas5]

If Putin wants to make sure Russia's borders are secure, he could start off by not being such an autocratic, violent a-hole. He openly talks about wanting to bring back the glory of the USSR while at the same time he's trying to rewrite history by white washing all the evil that was done by Stalin.

Russia orders closure of human rights group Memorial | News | DW | 28.12.2021

Can anyone seriously blame Ukraine or any else wanting to join NATO?

 

[AtenRa]

You have all also need to remember that for Russians, Ukraine and specifically Kyiv IS Russia.
It would be impossible for any Russian being ordinary people , politician or military personnel to ever accept Ukraine and Kyiv under NATO.

 

[cytg111]

This isn't a question of Putin's character. He's a fascist dictator.

The point is that this a predictable outcome of stated goal of adding Ukraine to NATO.

Just because you don't see a threat to Russia from expanding NATO to cover borders, doesn't mean it's viewed the same on the other side of that border.

This is a crisis that didn't need to happen.

Nope, this was always going to happen, with Ukraine or otherwise.

 

[K1052]

You have all also need to remember that for Russians, Ukraine and specifically Kyiv IS Russia.
It would be impossible for any Russian being ordinary people , politician or military personnel to ever accept Ukraine and Kyiv under NATO.

The Russian populace seems dramatically less enthusiastic about this than Putin is so far. They're not really interested in a war to conquer Ukraine and are apparently in general disbelief that such a thing could transpire. Seems like the people with real acceptance problems are mostly limited to one dictatorial nut at the top.

 

[K1052]

Did you forget that Trump started shipping weapons to the Ukraine? Don't you remember the "Obama gave them pillows, and I gave them tank busters ".

Trump said he'd withdraw from NATO in his second term. That's the fattest prize Putin could ever possibly dream of so what's a few Javelins in Ukraine?

 

[fskimospy]

This is an even weaker analogy because the USA would never have allowed any of the other 3 to happen in the first place.

As before, we have to deal with the world as it is.

Exactly my point! We have to deal with the world as it is, not how Russia wants to lie to us about how it is.

In your scenario Mexico represents the introduction of an entirely new military alliance on the US southern border. In real life though Russia has already accepted NATO on its borders and has for decades. Why is another entry intolerable while things have been fine with three other NATO members bordering it? The most likely answer is it's not - Russia just has other reasons but thinks a security pretext is the best lie available.

How about answering the question as proposed?

Sure, I find it very unlikely that the US would invade Mexico in that scenario. Much more likely is we would try and cut them off economically or whatever.

Did you forget that Trump started shipping weapons to the Ukraine? Don't you remember the "Obama gave them pillows, and I gave them tank busters ".

You do realize Russia began this invasion eight years ago, right? And guess what, it was in response to the Ukrainian government ceasing to be a Russian proxy.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

As before, we have to deal with the world as it is.

Funny, and here I thought we made the world as it is.

Nothing is 'put upon' us, we decide what we do and do not. Russia has decided on war, because one fucking guy thinks that everyone's out to get him. That's the long and short of it.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

You have all also need to remember that for Russians, Ukraine and specifically Kyiv IS Russia.
It would be impossible for any Russian being ordinary people , politician or military personnel to ever accept Ukraine and Kyiv under NATO.

Horseshit, Ukraine has been independent for over 30 years. The entire military structure barring a handful at the top, and nearly the entire working populace has only known it as an independent nation.

 

[tweaker2]

A poll by the Russians asking its citizens what they honestly think of their nation invading a neighboring nation and occupying that nation like Germany tried to do to them would be nice except for the fact that Putin would squash it and the people behind it the very second their security apparatus got wind of it.

That's what the people of Ukraine can see happening to them should Putin wrap his fist around their necks. The freedom that democracy brings is what the people of Ukraine want for themselves and it's exactly what Putin does not want spreading over the borders into his dictatorship.

Being a member of NATO goes hand in hand with being a democracy. I'm pretty sure Putin is more afraid of the latter than the former.

 

[cytg111]

Did you forget that Trump started shipping weapons to the Ukraine? Don't you remember the "Obama gave them pillows, and I gave them tank busters ".

Thats a blatant lie out of Trumps mouth. SURPRISE.

Congress, bipartisan, forced his hand.
Forced his hand so much that he just fucking sat on it doing nothing with until he got pushed again and THEN he tried to blackmail Ukraine with it to start wildly insane investigations into his political opponents son.

NO NO AND NO

 

[cytg111]

You have all also need to remember that for Russians, Ukraine and specifically Kyiv IS Russia.
It would be impossible for any Russian being ordinary people , politician or military personnel to ever accept Ukraine and Kyiv under NATO.

You know, except for Russians.
Its only fucking Putin that is warmongering. Russians wants what we got. Personal freedom and a right to vote, representation and democracy.

 

[K1052]

E.U. will unveil a strategy to break free from Russian gas, after decades of dependence

https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...russia-ukraine-eu-nordstream-strategy-energy/

The sharp-toothed new E.U. strategy is expected to be unveiled March 2. It calls for a 40 percent reduction in fossil fuel use by 2030 and requires European energy companies to fill their storage tanks with natural gas this summer so that the continent is less dependent on Russian gas next winter than it has been in the past, according to an official involved in drafting the strategy, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the proposal before it is officially released. This season, Europe is poised to eke by with just enough gas after Russia cut exports roughly by half compared to a year ago. About 40 percent of the European Union’s natural gas currently comes from Russia. Elements of the plan were reported by Reuters last week.

It will take time and be hard/expensive but the benefits clearly outweigh the near term issues. Germany turning away from Russian gas is an enormous change in strategy.

Relatedly the investment banks are starting to view green hydrogen as a giant market in the coming years.

 

[cytg111]

Being a member of NATO goes hand in hand with being a democracy. I'm pretty sure Putin is more afraid of the latter than the former.

100%

 

[AtenRa]

The Russian populace seems dramatically less enthusiastic about this than Putin is so far. They're not really interested in a war to conquer Ukraine and are apparently in general disbelief that such a thing could transpire. Seems like the people with real acceptance problems are mostly limited to one dictatorial nut at the top.

I didnt say anything about war and conquering Ukraine, I said they dont want to see Ukraine and especially Kyiv under NATO.

Horseshit, Ukraine has been independent for over 30 years. The entire military structure barring a handful at the top, and nearly the entire working populace has only known it as an independent nation.

It doesnt matter if it is 30 or 100 years or even 200 years, Russians will always consider Kyiv as Russia.

A poll by the Russians asking its citizens what they honestly think of their nation invading a neighboring nation and occupying that nation like Germany tried to do to them would be nice except for the fact that Putin would squash it and the people behind it the very second their security apparatus got wind of it.

That's what the people of Ukraine can see happening to them should Putin wrap his fist around their necks. The freedom that democracy brings is what the people of Ukraine want for themselves and it's exactly what Putin does not want spreading over the borders into his dictatorship.

Being a member of NATO goes hand in hand with being a democracy. I'm pretty sure Putin is more afraid of the latter than the former.

Actually that is exactly what separatists have taken advantage off, they suggest the vast majority of people living in east Ukraine wants to be independent. So be careful when you talking about democracy and what people want, it is easy to take advantage of the situation and things could take a nasty turn.

 

[cytg111]

I didnt say anything about war and conquering Ukraine, I said they dont want to see Ukraine and especially Kyiv under NATO.

That is dodging the goalpost while being firmly caught in the net though.
So lets rephrase. Do they NOT want to see Ukraine "under" (why are you using "under") - as a member of NATO to a degree where they think WAR is warranted?

The objective answer to that question is : No.

It doesnt matter if it is 30 or 100 years or even 200 years, Russians will always consider Kyiv as Russia.

Or maybe they be like "Good for them. Maybe us next?".

 

[K1052]

(why are you using "under")

My best guess is the concept for close relations with Moscow being a definitively subservient role encroaching on how some people must view NATO's relations with its smaller or more junior members.

 

[Ken g6]

I keep trying to remind myself, this is half a world away, I don't have to worry about it here.

Then I see Trump say something like, "So Putin is now saying it’s independent — a large section of Ukraine. I said, how smart is that? And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. We could use that on our southern border."

So, I infer that Trump wants to declare parts of northern Mexico as independent states run by the drug cartels, and then "go in and be a peacekeeper."

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

It doesnt matter if it is 30 or 100 years or even 200 years, Russians will always consider Kyiv as Russia.

Then they are greedy children, and should be treated as such.

 

[AtenRa]

That is dodging the goalpost while being firmly caught in the net though.
So lets rephrase. Do they NOT want to see Ukraine "under" (why are you using "under") - as a member of NATO to a degree where they think WAR is warranted?

The objective answer to that question is : No.

The situation today in Ukraine with the separatists and the Ukraine becoming a NATO member and how Russians will see this are two different things.
Im sure today Russians doesnt see the situation of the recognition of the Russian speaking separatists enclaves in Donetsk and Luhansk as an invasion but as their own people getting free to chose where they want to be.

Now if Ukraine would join NATO and Russians see Kyiv under NATO it will be way different that what we have today and perhaps they will even tolerate war over what they feel is theirs.

 

[K1052]

So, I infer that Trump wants to declare parts of northern Mexico as independent states run by the drug cartels, and then "go in and be a peacekeeper."

Trump proposed invading Mexico to fight the cartels. Eventually he backed off when the various legal and practical issues surfaced: a literal war with Mexico and massive economic disruption likely leading the country into a major recession.

 

[AtenRa]

(why are you using "under")

Just to make you understand how Russians will feel like when they will see "their" Kyiv joining NATO.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Exactly my point! We have to deal with the world as it is, not how Russia wants to lie to us about how it is.

In your scenario Mexico represents the introduction of an entirely new military alliance on the US southern border. In real life though Russia has already accepted NATO on its borders and has for decades. Why is another entry intolerable while things have been fine with three other NATO members bordering it? The most likely answer is it's not - Russia just has other reasons but thinks a security pretext is the best lie available.

Being powerless to stop something isn't quite the same as being fine with it.

They have stronger historic ties to Ukraine, being about half Russian as it is, and it much more painful to lose, and since they have significant sympathetic citizens inside Ukraine, they can do more about it.

Ultimately though, they have made it clear for nearly two decades that Ukraine in NATO is unacceptable. Why provoke them?

Sure, I find it very unlikely that the US would invade Mexico in that scenario. Much more likely is we would try and cut them off economically or whatever.

Economic sanctions when they are in a Political/economic/military partnership with China, with Chinese weapons coming into the county? Sure, pull the other one.

 

[AtenRa]

Then they are greedy children, and should be treated as such.

If you are an American I can understand why you think like that, if you are from Russia you feel like you lost your Capital and you dont want to see it under your enemy (US/NATO) rule.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

If you are an American I can understand why you think like that, if you are from Russia you feel like you lost your Capital and you dont want to see it under your enemy (US/NATO) rule.

Russia lost their capital because the USSR collapsed, due to mismanagement of the USSR. Nobody 'stole' it from them and they don't 'deserve' it back. If their opinion is that Ukraine should be part of Russia again, then they should treat the Ukrainian government and peoples with respect, and offer a convincing argument as to why they might be rejoined. Rolling tanks into the country isn't the way. Bombing its citizens into compliance isn't the way.