The Russians still have a large numerical advantage. Though at the rate they are burning through men and equipment how long they can sustain forward movement is a very open question. It is hard to overstate how dramatically Russian military goals have shrunk from "take over all Ukraine" to "hopefully pocket Severodonetsk in a few more weeks". Ukrainian will and western weapons made that possible.
Unless Russian moral collapses and the Russian army is routed, they are not going anywhere for years. Russia has more material, more soldiers, and adequate moral as it stands. It will continue to win until that changes.
The western help is inadequate. To push the Russian's back Ukraine is going to need about $300 billion, not the $40 billion we are sending. As it stands, even if we allocated $300 billion, we lack the ability to get that into Ukraine in a timely manner.
Ukraine is still operating at the end of an airlift to Poland, and then backroads into Ukraine. Fast response, but limited carriage.
We are transitioning to ship and railroad to Poland, and then road into Ukraine. An improvement, but still inadequate.
Between Ukraine and Poland there is a long abandoned soviet rail link. Unusable now, but it is being rebuilt. This will take over a year to rebuild in Poland. Likely years on the Ukraine end.
In a remote province in the southeast tip of Poland, surrounded by snow and bare trees, 11 burly men in orange suits are hard at work rebuilding rail tracks first put down in the 19th century.
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Once any* railroad link is built to proper capacity NATO will be able to send enough resources to push Russia out. Until then, all that can be done is to bleed the Russians out.
Outside of moral collapse, Russia is not going anywhere until a heavy carriage rail link is created*.
*there is another rail link to Lithuania that was just brought online. But it seems to be confined to light loads. It is being used to transport an inadequate amount of grain out of Ukraine.
There are other of passenger service railroads running to Poland. These also seem confined to light loads. With railroads, the weight of carriage usable is limited by the bridges. The soviets did not build their infrastructure for heavy loads.
However, it seems these could be upgraded. All NATO needs is one good line and protection from air interdiction.
If that's true it makes this invasion somehow even worse - it would indicate to me Putin knew he was about to die and so decided to launch a genocidal war before he went out because wouldn't it just be such a shame to miss out on slaughtering all those innocent people.
At some point someone is going to have to sail a Navy in and end the blockade to end the famine.
Interesting thing is India is first up to starve. India moved quick to support Russia in this, and India is getting that cheap blood oil from Russia. Blood oil does not feed anyone though. Not feeling like we should put our people in harms way for India just yet.
The famine will not stop at India though, and eventually someone is going to have to do something.
I thought India was a net exporter of food. They will certainly won't sail up to the Black Sea. Though I can see them buying stolen grain from Russia for cheap.
I thought India was a net exporter of food. They will certainly won't sail up to the Black Sea. Though I can see them buying stolen grain from Russia for cheap.
If that's true it makes this invasion somehow even worse - it would indicate to me Putin knew he was about to die and so decided to launch a genocidal war before he went out because wouldn't it just be such a shame to miss out on slaughtering all those innocent people.
I thought India was a net exporter of food. They will certainly won't sail up to the Black Sea. Though I can see them buying stolen grain from Russia for cheap.
High value items. Tea, Coffee, Oilseed. In terms of dollars they are exporters. Basically, the reasons the British Empire moved into India long ago.
if I am reading the graph right (and I am not sure I am), India imports 25 million tons while exporting 1 million tons of wheat last year. My research seems confusing.
What does pop up those is a complete export ban on India wheat this year:
India banned wheat exports on Saturday — days after saying it was targeting record shipments this year — as a scorching heat wave curtailed output and domestic prices hit a record high.
For Kissinger, it was purely a Machiavellian gesture. That to him, freedom, democracy, moralistic principles, etc, sometimes have to take a back seat to avoiding war. He knows the Russians probably better than anyone else on earth. And certainly knew how dangerous the idea of Ukraine falling into the western sphere of influence would be.
John Mearsheimer basically said the same thing a few years ago.
If it's what you're alluding to, I too wouldn't mind seeing half staff flags flying for him given what I recall from those heady days of prying his brand of diplomatic skullduggery.
In that case the Grim Reaper comes with flowers, smiles, hugs and kisses. Hope it's true and Russia takes a turn towards the light, gets all troops and equipment immediately out of Ukraine.
It is fully expected that Ukraine will have to slowly trade territory in exchange for Russian casualties.
I just hope the pace of Russian advance remains slow enough that Ukraine can arm up in time to make it count.
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