Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,538
9,918
136
So either you or Zorba, or both, think that Putin will conclude that if he can use WMD in Ukraine without a military response from NATO, that he's clear to invade a NATO country? I don't think so. Because Putin knows we are obligated by treaty to intervene while we are not with Ukraine, which is why Putin manipulated Trump to undermine NATO. But even if the US broke it's treaty obligation (which I bet would happen if Trump was back in office), EU alone has enough military to crush Russia, and France has nukes.

This sounds like a slippery slope fallacy to me. I mean, you could be right, but it's far from clear that you are. The scenario where we intervene with our military now is the one with the highest probability of a catastrophic outcome.
I don't necessarily think it'd lead to directly attacking NATO, but other non-NATO countries in the area, yes.

I also don't think Putin will nuke us because we enforced a NFZ over a different country. I agree with you that it raises the possibility of continued escalation, though.
Just wanted to add, I fully believe that there are people much more intelligent about how to handle this than me and will accept what they decide. I'm definitely not routing for any direct involvement. I'm also very glad we have a component administration for the moment.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,538
9,918
136
Actually, I hate Nestle's for the wonderful work they been involved in the baby formula business. I will look for alternatives.. Gerradelli? Hershey's?
That they make Formula or what?

My daughter is alive because of formula so hopefully you have a more significant reason than that they make it.
 

BoomerD

No Lifer
Feb 26, 2006
62,887
11,283
136
Actually, I hate Nestle's for the wonderful work they been involved in the baby formula business. I will look for alternatives.. Gerradelli? Hershey's?

Ghirardelli, maybe. Hershey's...fuck no. They used to have a plant near us i CA. They extracted tax incentives from the local governments for decades...then shut down the plant and moved their production to Mexico.
We haven't bought anything made by Hershey since. Fuck em.
 
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Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,674
13,420
146
And I think this is the root of the disagreement between you two. @Zorba probably sees the calculus opposite, and would expect Russia to continue invasions to other countries, eventually NATO ones (which I happen to agree with). I don't see either outcome resulting in anything but a nuclear event, so I'm kinda between you two.
I think drawing a completely clear line with Putin that any Russian military action occuring on NATO soil will lead to an overwhelming response will reduce the risk of this spilling outside of Ukraine. I'm not sure if it would be bad for NATO to state that NATO retains the decision to respond with overwhelming force if WMDs of any type are used against civilian populations in the UK even if we wouldn't take that step.
It's possible, but I don't think that's the most likely answer. I guess to come to that conclusion we would need to explain why no previous conflict came to a nuclear exchange, even when US and Russian forces directly engaged each other and why that's different now.
I think the inherently reckless act of invading UK standing at the brink of losing the war, and the pressure that puts on a seemingly paranoid Putin means accepting that there's a non-zero chance of more reckless behavior. Doesn't necesarilly mean Russia would resort to nukes but it's at least more likely now than at anytime since the end of the coldwar.
That they make Formula or what?

My daughter is alive because of formula so hopefully you have a more significant reason than that they make it.
Nestle had a history of aggressively pushing formula on poor 3rd world mothers who then struggled to afford the formula to feed their children resulting in significant deaths due to malnutrition that in some cases were attributed to Nestle.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,196
12,849
136
um.. if he's continuing with his self sufficient econ experimenter, it has MASSIVELY failed for this Ukraine war with the world wide sanctions.
they no longer have the parts to build cars, much less planes :eek:
And if he is prepared to play NK for 10 years to get local supply up and running?
Your version of success is likely very very different from his.
Its gonna be a shit show... 100%. So what?
 

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,528
5,045
136
In a cookie, any chip will do, even store brand, and you probably won't be able to tell the difference.
Maybe…but I’ll be damned to have to give up the Purina branded animal foods we use that our animals will eat. Otherwise, our exposure to Nestle is limited Hotpockets, Lean Cuisine and couple things from Stouffers.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,300
126
Maybe…but I’ll be damned to have to give up the Purina branded animal foods we use that our animals will eat. Otherwise, our exposure to Nestle is limited Hotpockets, Lean Cuisine and couple things from Stouffers.
but i LOVE stoffers tv dinners :(
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,188
14,092
136
Just wanted to add, I fully believe that there are people much more intelligent about how to handle this than me and will accept what they decide. I'm definitely not routing for any direct involvement. I'm also very glad we have a component administration for the moment.

Yes, can you imagine this situation if Trump was in office? There would be, at most, token sanctions, and only those because McConnell would push for them because it would be politically bad for the GOP to do nothing at all.

Not to mention that Trump would be praising Putin through the whole thing, buying Putin's ridiculous lies about why they invaded. Emboldening Putin to attack other countries. It would be a nightmare. We MUST prevent that man from ever holding office again.
 

nOOky

Platinum Member
Aug 17, 2004
2,841
1,860
136
Yes, can you imagine this situation if Trump was in office? There would be, at most, token sanctions, and only those because McConnell would push for them because it would be politically bad for the GOP to do nothing at all.

Not to mention that Trump would be praising Putin through the whole thing, buying Putin's ridiculous lies about why they invaded. Emboldening Putin to attack other countries. It would be a nightmare. We MUST prevent that man from ever holding office again.

lol Trump wants to run nuclear subs up and down the coast announcing their presence in a show of might to deter Putin. Dumbest motherfucker CiC to ever have lived.

I wish Biden would quite talking about the use of chemical weapons. His talk does not in any way make Russia think "we better not do that then, because Biden expects them". I think Biden should be saying things like "look, the fact of the matter is, Putin is smart enough not to even think about using nuclear weapons, He should not even be mentioning them, because he knows such rhetoric would also be the end of his country and the entire world. That is totally off the table for any world leader, and he knows it". Or something.
 
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nakedfrog

No Lifer
Apr 3, 2001
58,144
12,318
136
Fact: I haven't bought anything Nestle in many years, don't remember thinking their products particularly worthy. Right now, my thinking is cancel Nestle. If they are not on board with pulling all Russia business, I'm against them.
It's more fuel for the fire.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,325
28,579
136
Yes, can you imagine this situation if Trump was in office? There would be, at most, token sanctions, and only those because McConnell would push for them because it would be politically bad for the GOP to do nothing at all.

Not to mention that Trump would be praising Putin through the whole thing, buying Putin's ridiculous lies about why they invaded. Emboldening Putin to attack other countries. It would be a nightmare. We MUST prevent that man from ever holding office again.
Trump would be pressuring other countries NOT to help Ukraine. Imagine how this would have gone if the world was not supplying them with rockets and missiles.
 
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uallas5

Golden Member
Jun 3, 2005
1,425
1,545
136
That they make Formula or what?

My daughter is alive because of formula so hopefully you have a more significant reason than that they make it.
Nestle had a history of aggressively pushing formula on poor 3rd world mothers who then struggled to afford the formula to feed their children resulting in significant deaths due to malnutrition that in some cases were attributed to Nestle.
This started in the early 70's before modern baby formulas were invented. Companies like Nestle were running campaigns that made it seem that breast feeding was either not healthy compared to the artificial baby's milks or that made the mothers feel that they couldn't produce enough milk. Many of these formulas were powdered and required levels of sterilization that most families in poor nations could not accomplish during preparation. Thus, many babies were dying of disease or of malnutrition due to insufficient feeding because the mothers couldn't afford to buy enough of the milk.

Old article but with some good links if anyone wants to read up on it:

Nestlé baby milk scandal has grown up but not gone away | Guardian sustainable business | The Guardian
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,451
7,861
136
I think drawing a completely clear line with Putin that any Russian military action occurring on NATO soil will lead to an overwhelming response will reduce the risk of this spilling outside of Ukraine.

This is NATO doctrine anyway. It is the one RED LINE that NATO has. Biden and other leaders have been clear on this. Since it would take some time to mobilize, the sky would fill with Tomahawk cruise missiles. If Putin allow such to happen, it would be a pretty clear indication that he was no longer in full control of his faculties.

I'm not sure if it would be bad for NATO to state that NATO retains the decision to respond with overwhelming force if WMDs of any type are used against civilian populations in the UK even if we wouldn't take that step.

We've learned our lesson on creating red lines. NATO needs 100% buy in before any red line will be drawn. Even then, a red line forces one on a path that cannot change, even if certain aspects of the situation evolve. Otherwise, one winds up with situations as occurred in Syria under the Obama Administration. They drew a red line, but it didn't make sense to uphold it. We seriously hurt our credibility in the short run because of that.

I made a statement of what I think NATO should do, and it included an inflexible red line. ~3 days later, I realize that I should have modified one statement. Not that my opinion means anything, only that situations change quickly and calculated responses are subject to unknown emergent variables in the future.
 
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Atari2600

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2016
1,409
1,655
136
Are you nuts? What is the logical progression after chemical weapons, and do we want to be in a hot war with Russia when that happens?

I'm against any sort of US or NATO military involvement in this war, for any reason. Even if Russia nukes Ukrainian cities. Especially if they nuke Ukrainian cities.

You don't get it.

All your weapons are only useful as a deterrent if the other guy thinks you'll actually use them.

The minute he's convinced you won't, then he'll do whatever the f**k he wants.

Also - the UK and USA are on the hook for the territorial integrity of Ukraine already. Budapest Memorandum.

Both countries have shirked their signed international obligations already.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,020
2,136
126
I was purposely being over the top dickish, just because it was a good opportunity, not because I actually think you are okay with it.

I've agreed with you that we shouldn't get directly involved. But I think WMD usage should be a redline to come to Ukraine's defense at least to the point that we stop the gassing. Even in that case, our involvement should be very limited. But I don't think we should set the precedent that if you have nukes you can just start gassing cities without consequence.

Regardless, we need to make Putin at least think there will be real consequences for using them.
WMD is somewhat of a loaded term. As we all know by now, our response has to be proportionate. A small-scale chemical weapons attack, limited tactical nuke(s), or strategic nukes can't be ignored but are not equivalent. The Biden administration is wise to not publicly broadcast a specific "red line," as we don't know if Putin will cross it just to dare us to respond with force.

I don't care if Putin bluffs the use of WMDs, because it's hard to win a game of chicken with a madman. The reality is that any direct military escalation from NATO increases the odds of thermonuclear war by a non-negligible amount. We should all care if he's NOT bluffing the use of nuclear weapons, tactical or strategic.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,426
10,320
136
My experience is that the major purveyors of American chocolate come up way short. There are exceptions, I suppose, but I think they are smaller companies. I have liked See's. Guittard is pretty OK, I guess, and not really expensive for bulk. But if you want good chocolate, my experience is shop European. My favorite cocoa is Droste, they're Dutch. I've tried the other gourmet cocoas, Droste still rules. Good deals on that are to be found at Amazon. For chocolate, there's lots to choose from in European chocolate, real good bang for the buck with Lindt, I believe.
Not a fan of fatty European chocolate. It's Hershey's salty rough texture I crave (in comparison). Please, enough side tracking of the thread.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,426
10,320
136
Ghirardelli, maybe. Hershey's...fuck no. They used to have a plant near us i CA. They extracted tax incentives from the local governments for decades...then shut down the plant and moved their production to Mexico.
We haven't bought anything made by Hershey since. Fuck em.
I knew I wasn't spelling Ghirardelli right. Yea, not happy about Hershey's going the Mexico. You start that shit, you need to look at all the fine print on everything you buy. Hell, I still like Chinatown and Woody Allen movies. I must be a terrible person.