Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[fskimospy]

I don't know, I'd need someone to explain to me why Putin is so committed to taking Ukraine. He's committing extremely large amounts of resources to the effort, far more than any other objective since WW2 at this point, and he's losing so much material that he's going to have to escalate just to hold on to Crimea and the Donbas regions at this point. It's different because the intent and effort from the despot with the numbers is different.

I can see arguments for why this MIGHT lead to a nuclear exchange but those don’t adequately explain why it MUST to me.

 

[woolfe9998]

You're assuming Putin is a rational actor, he is decidedly not.. We're talking about the man sending hundreds of thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks, aircraft, and in some cases incredibly advanced equipment into a fucking wood chipper with zero plan B, because he thinks either the country is full of Nazis (crazy option 1), or he thinks he needs to rebuild the failed USSR (crazy option 2). An irrational actor will see his victory assured, and move on to the next USSR territory to de-nazify.

Yes, he's irrational, by degrees. Your argument is akin to saying that because someone is stupid enough to bet that the Detroit Lions would go to the Superbowl and win last year, that person is also stupid enough to cross the freeway on foot during heavy traffic.

Which again, is a slippery slope fallacy. Putin overestimated the strength of his own military, for whatever reasons, we do not know. Maybe his commanders blew sunshine up his ass about how great their military is. And he also underestimated Ukraine's own military. Possibly he had bad or biased intel.

Putin is not dumb. He's a sociopath, and a narcissist. He will continue to act in his own self-interest, but because of his narcissism and pride, he will make some bad decisions. How bad is the real question. From our perspective, we need to recognize the narcissism and pride, and not push a button that will trigger him to make the worst possible decision imaginable. If we avoid doing that, his own self-interest, particularly in his own survival, will more than likely prevail.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I can see arguments for why this MIGHT lead to a nuclear exchange but those don’t adequately explain why it MUST to me.

Do you see Putin just walking away without escalating? Because I don't see that as a possible option. Egomaniacs like Putin never walk away, they escalate until the enemy capitulates or they catch a bullet.

 

[Roger Wilco]

This Belarusian offensive is going to be…interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506327908507344903

 

[Zorba]

So either you or Zorba, or both, think that Putin will conclude that if he can use WMD in Ukraine without a military response from NATO, that he's clear to invade a NATO country? I don't think so. Because Putin knows we are obligated by treaty to intervene while we are not with Ukraine, which is why Putin manipulated Trump to undermine NATO. But even if the US broke it's treaty obligation (which I bet would happen if Trump was back in office), EU alone has enough military to crush Russia, and France has nukes.

This sounds like a slippery slope fallacy to me. I mean, you could be right, but it's far from clear that you are. The scenario where we intervene with our military now is the one with the highest probability of a catastrophic outcome.

I don't necessarily think it'd lead to directly attacking NATO, but other non-NATO countries in the area, yes.

I also don't think Putin will nuke us because we enforced a NFZ over a different country. I agree with you that it raises the possibility of continued escalation, though.

 

[K1052]

This Belarusian offensive is going to be…interesting.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506327908507344903

He's just moving trucks around trying to look busy. Literally. lol

 

[Commodus]

You're assuming Putin is a rational actor, he is decidedly not.. We're talking about the man sending hundreds of thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks, aircraft, and in some cases incredibly advanced equipment into a fucking wood chipper with zero plan B, because he thinks either the country is full of Nazis (crazy option 1), or he thinks he needs to rebuild the failed USSR (crazy option 2). An irrational actor will see his victory assured, and move on to the next USSR territory to de-nazify.

Pretty sure option 1 is just the excuse to justify option 2. My pet theory is that Putin sees the Soviet Union as his golden era (not just the country's), and is neurotically trying to recreate the past. Like someone going through a midlife crisis, just with an authoritarian government and a tinpot army at his disposal.

 

[fskimospy]

Do you see Putin just walking away without escalating? Because I don't see that as a possible option. Egomaniacs like Putin never walk away, they escalate until the enemy capitulates or they catch a bullet.

Presumably you don’t think Putin would escalate EVERY dispute he might lose into a nuclear exchange so that’s my question - what about this one makes it inevitable?

 

[K1052]

Uh are the Russians counting on these guys to bail them out northwest of Kyiv?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506323467037253642

 

[JEDI]

I dont think the self sustaining economy experiment is over in the mind of Putin… Its still very much what he is aiming for with this experiment.

um.. if he's continuing with his self sufficient econ experimenter, it has MASSIVELY failed for this Ukraine war with the world wide sanctions.
they no longer have the parts to build cars, much less planes

 

[hal2kilo]

Fact: I haven't bought anything Nestle in many years, don't remember thinking their products particularly worthy. Right now, my thinking is cancel Nestle. If they are not on board with pulling all Russia business, I'm against them.

Keep your hands off of my Tollhouse cookies!

 

[Muse]

And to be clear that I am not unsympathetic to the plight of Ukraine, here is what we should be doing right now: shipping off 100's of thousands of gas masks and other protective gear to Ukraine. I mean right now. If we haven't already done so.

Gas masks. Won't save you from VX. Goes right through your skin.

 

[Muse]

Keep your hands off of my Tollhouse cookies!

Fuck you and your Tollhouse cookies!

 

[JEDI]

Know your enemy I guess .....

Intense Combat Video Shows Ukrainians Take On Russian Tank At Point-Blank Range

Forbes|24 minutes ago
A video released by Ukrainian forces apparently shows intense close-range fighting in which a Russian T-72 is blasted with 30mm automatic cannon fire. This unlikely kill was possible because the gunner knew exactly where the tank's weak points lie.

wow.. thought modern armor was immune to 30mm.
So USA warthogs are still viable?

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I also don't think Putin will nuke us because we enforced a NFZ over a different country. I agree with you that it raises the possibility of continued escalation, though.

I predicted a while back that a NFZ, or a failure to take Kyiv, will both result in him using a nuke on Kyiv. Escalation proceeds from there.

EDIT: Side option, A NFZ might result in a chemical attack. I don't think he's willing to lose Kyiv though, and I still think being pushed out will result in a nuke.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Pretty sure option 1 is just the excuse to justify option 2. My pet theory is that Putin sees the Soviet Union as his golden era (not just the country's), and is neurotically trying to recreate the past. Like someone going through a midlife crisis, just with an authoritarian government and a tinpot army at his disposal.

I agree with that assessment, I just always leave the distinct possibility that's he's lost his mind enough to actually think there's Nazis there.

 

[hal2kilo]

Fuck you are your Tollhouse cookies!

Actually, I hate Nestle's for the wonderful work they been involved in the baby formula business. I will look for alternatives.. Gerradelli? Hershey's?

 

[JEDI]

The latest propaganda being spread by the right is so ridiculous that I am surprised people believe it.

The claim is that Zelenskyy has ordered all Russian POWs to be castrated and, of course, the right calls it a war crime and Zelenskyy a war criminal.

Good Lord, are people really this stupid to believe this crap?

Repubs elected Trump and still willing to suck him till swallow even after his Pres loss.
what do you think?

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Presumably you don’t think Putin would escalate EVERY dispute he might lose into a nuclear exchange so that’s my question - what about this one makes it inevitable?

He's never committed so much to so little. The situation 'feels' off. Don't get me wrong, I really hope he's wrong and just overcommitted what should have been enough resources to take Ukraine 5 times over. But it smells like an old man who's grasping at a legacy, and I hope he doesn't find the wrong one.

 

[Pens1566]

I predicted a while back that a NFZ, or a failure to take Kyiv, will both result in him using a nuke on Kyiv. Escalation proceeds from there.

Partly agree ... but I don't think it'll be a nuke. He'll just conventional shell Kyiv into the stone ages. Which itself will cause an escalation anyway. I think that kind of indiscriminate destruction will cause a really difficult decision on the part of NATO/west. Then, all bets are off.

But again, he's not a rational person.

Personally, I don't see us getting out of this without a von Stauffenberg.

 

[JEDI]

I keep thinking about the ~3 generations of NATO commanders that are absolutely salivating at what they're seeing from the Russian ... incompetence in Ukraine. There would be a 48hr operation needed, and this would be over. Maybe 3 days.

yeah, shocked by how incompetent the Russian military is.
It's now a month and they still havent taken Kiev?

It took the US only 3 weeks to take down Bagdad and Iraq had the 4th largest army in the world at that time.
Iraq had 2500 pieces of armor at the start of the Iraq war. End of week1, Iraq had ZERO!

 

[dank69]

Actually, I hate Nestle's for the wonderful work they been involved in the baby formula business. I will look for alternatives.. Gerradelli? Hershey's?

In a cookie, any chip will do, even store brand, and you probably won't be able to tell the difference.

 

[Muse]

Actually, I hate Nestle's for the wonderful work they been involved in the baby formula business. I will look for alternatives.. Gerradelli? Hershey's?

My experience is that the major purveyors of American chocolate come up way short. There are exceptions, I suppose, but I think they are smaller companies. I have liked See's. Guittard is pretty OK, I guess, and not really expensive for bulk. But if you want good chocolate, my experience is shop European. My favorite cocoa is Droste, they're Dutch. I've tried the other gourmet cocoas, Droste still rules. Good deals on that are to be found at Amazon. For chocolate, there's lots to choose from in European chocolate, real good bang for the buck with Lindt, I believe.

 

[KMFJD]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1506303352111513605

that aprox 25k troops bottled up if true

 

[fskimospy]

He's never committed so much to so little. The situation 'feels' off. Don't get me wrong, I really hope he's wrong and just overcommitted what should have been enough resources to take Ukraine 5 times over. But it smells like an old man who's grasping at a legacy, and I hope he doesn't find the wrong one.

I hope so too! I think you’re right that for the first time in my life at least we stand a non trivial chance of a nuclear exchange. I guess I’m just saying there are a lot of other ways this could end, and there’s a lot of room for negotiated settlement where Putin could declare ‘victory’ despite getting his ass kicked.