SMOGZINN
Lifer
- Jun 17, 2005
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I might be wrong, but I think this scenario is just to likely to chance it:No it wont. I dont believe that for a second. (quarter second maybe...)
NATO forces enter Ukraine to enforce a no fly zone.
Russia quickly gets it's shit kicked in. It's ground forces, denied air cover, is getting wrecked (even worse then they are now).
NATO forces take down everything Russia can get in the air short of a fart with NATO casualties being negligible, more from equipment failure than Russian military action.
Within a week it is obvious to Russian command that they have literally zero chance at winning this war as it stands. So they have two options.
Escalate or flee.
To flee would mean having sacrificed a sizeable portion of their military and having gotten nothing, but more importantly it would mean the end of Putin's ambitions. Russian would have to admit it has no hope of winning any war ever again.
But the other option has an interesting proposition. What if instead of fleeing they use a tactical nuke? Something small, just enough to take out the airport the NATO jets flying out of. What would NATO do? If they don't reply in kind then Russia can win this war, and future wars, Putin's dreams of a Soviet Empire resurrected suddenly seems plausible. If NATO does reply in kind well, Russia can always sue for peace.
Either way the nuclear cherry is popped, MAD is now defunct. Nukes are no longer a deterrent but a practical weapon. Militaries can use nukes as long as it is tactical.
China starts to seriously re-calculate what it would require to take Taiwan. If you can safely nuke American carrier fleets and only risk their own fleet, it just might be possible...
North Korea starts to think it might be able to take Seoul....
