Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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SMOGZINN

Lifer
Jun 17, 2005
14,221
4,452
136
No it wont. I dont believe that for a second. (quarter second maybe...)
I might be wrong, but I think this scenario is just to likely to chance it:

NATO forces enter Ukraine to enforce a no fly zone.
Russia quickly gets it's shit kicked in. It's ground forces, denied air cover, is getting wrecked (even worse then they are now).
NATO forces take down everything Russia can get in the air short of a fart with NATO casualties being negligible, more from equipment failure than Russian military action.
Within a week it is obvious to Russian command that they have literally zero chance at winning this war as it stands. So they have two options.
Escalate or flee.

To flee would mean having sacrificed a sizeable portion of their military and having gotten nothing, but more importantly it would mean the end of Putin's ambitions. Russian would have to admit it has no hope of winning any war ever again.
But the other option has an interesting proposition. What if instead of fleeing they use a tactical nuke? Something small, just enough to take out the airport the NATO jets flying out of. What would NATO do? If they don't reply in kind then Russia can win this war, and future wars, Putin's dreams of a Soviet Empire resurrected suddenly seems plausible. If NATO does reply in kind well, Russia can always sue for peace.
Either way the nuclear cherry is popped, MAD is now defunct. Nukes are no longer a deterrent but a practical weapon. Militaries can use nukes as long as it is tactical.
China starts to seriously re-calculate what it would require to take Taiwan. If you can safely nuke American carrier fleets and only risk their own fleet, it just might be possible...
North Korea starts to think it might be able to take Seoul....
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
37,676
136
How do some of the more complicated systems work for the handoff? IE, the missile defense systems that are likely all in English. How does one get trained on that during an active conflict quick enough for it to be effective? The logistics of the arms smuggling is one of the few "neat" parts of this whole disaster.

This is why there is a focus on ex-soviet or Russian SAMs that are in NATO possession. No training required for Ukraine as they already operate them.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
24,030
13,539
136
How do some of the more complicated systems work for the handoff? IE, the missile defense systems that are likely all in English. How does one get trained on that during an active conflict quick enough for it to be effective? The logistics of the arms smuggling is one of the few "neat" parts of this whole disaster.
couple of green men?
 
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Nov 17, 2019
12,404
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Man snatchin' the stuff ... (I think)

A helicopter linked to a Russian oligarch's megayacht and 17 private jets have their registration struck off by low-tax haven favored by the super rich, a report says

www.msn.com.ico
Business Insider on MSN.com|33 minutes ago
A total of 18 aircraft and two yachts were deregistered because of Russian ties, the Isle of Man government said in a press release sent to Insider.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,501
8,773
136
The nukes are going to go off if Russia implodes. They scattered mobile nuke launchers all over the country when Putin put their nuclear forces on high alert a few weeks ago.

Your village just rebelled against the Putin regime, and you just obtained a Russian mobile nuke launcher when they came into town for lunch. You can end Kremlin oppression in less then 10 minutes. If you do nothing your village will be crushed next week with horrific war crimes. You remember that in Chechnya standard practice was the disappear all military age males and sell the females of suspect families to human traffickers.


How long are you going to wait to launch?
Do you try to negotiate? What do you do when the VDV tries to blitz your village?
What are your neighbors in the next village over going to do with their mobile nuke launcher?
Uh, well you make what I think is a way out there (unsupportable) assumption, namely that whoever these mobile nuke launchers are actually have the power to launch them (individually) at their discretion. I find that very close to completely preposterous. Do I know the dynamics of the launch nukes systems in Russia, by Russia whereever? Certainly not. However, given the monumental danger than nuclear launches present, I have to think that the Ruskies aren't that stupid as to let things transpire as you suggest.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
24,030
13,539
136
I might be wrong, but I think this scenario is just to likely to chance it:

NATO forces enter Ukraine to enforce a no fly zone.
Russia quickly gets it's shit kicked in. It's ground forces, denied air cover, is getting wrecked (even worse then they are now).
NATO forces take down everything Russia can get in the air short of a fart with NATO casualties being negligible, more from equipment failure than Russian military action.
Within a week it is obvious to Russian command that they have literally zero chance at winning this war as it stands. So they have two options.
Escalate or flee.

To flee would mean having sacrificed a sizeable portion of their military and having gotten nothing, but more importantly it would mean the end of Putin's ambitions. Russian would have to admit it has no hope of winning any war ever again.
But the other option has an interesting proposition. What if instead of fleeing they use a tactical nuke? Something small, just enough to take out the airport the NATO jets flying out of. What would NATO do? If they don't reply in kind then Russia can win this war, and future wars, Putin's dreams of a Soviet Empire resurrected suddenly seems plausible. If NATO does reply in kind well, Russia can always sue for peace.
Either way the nuclear cherry is popped, MAD is now defunct. Nukes are no longer a deterrent but a practical weapon. Militaries can use nukes as long as it is tactical.
China starts to seriously re-calculate what it would require to take Taiwan. If you can safely nuke American carrier fleets and only risk their own fleet, it just might be possible...
North Korea starts to think it might be able to take Seoul....

But this is the calculus that doesnt add up to me.
Putin cant win this war.
Lets play the scenario where Putin cant win this war, the Ukraine resolve is too strong and Russian conscripts too weak.
- Now Russia has depleted its resources in terms of hardware, finance and manpower.
- Ukraine even more determined to be its own country and integrate with Europe.
What moved Putin to go to war to begin with? Those variables have not been diminished during this "special operation", quite the opposite.
So what choice is left for Putin to defend against evil NATO?
Nuclear. Same as if we had boots in Ukraine.
Either way, peace keeping forces of NATO or not, its gonna come to the same conclusion.
Unless we're dragging it out in hopes that someone at home kills the king long live the king? Maybe thats the fine print?
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
24,030
13,539
136
Uh, well you make what I think is a way out there (unsupportable) assumption, namely that whoever these mobile nuke launchers are actually have the power to launch them (individually) at their discretion. I find that very close to completely preposterous. Do I know the dynamics of the launch nukes systems in Russia, by Russia whereever? Certainly not. However, given the monumental danger than nuclear launches present, I have to think that the Ruskies aren't that stupid as to let things transpire as you suggest.
Cant find the article right now but something about Putins red button and yes-men all the way down… Scary shit.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,825
2,007
136
he's so scared of WWIII right now he's shaking in his boots.

I am not sure this is a correct perspective. I think we should all be concerned with the implications of WW3, but scared is an over reach. Just because someone understand the implications, looks at the options and decides differently than you, does not mean they are scared. The last thing we need is to have irrational behavior. If you want to avoid WW3, this is most important. I am distressed by what I am seeing. I even said we need to do more and have advocated for the NFZ. After some information I have gleaned from this thread, I am not sure that position is the right one. I came to this realization and I am not in the least bit “scared” about it. Logic must be what we do. Logic is not “shaking in his boots” as he has moved mountains if equipment, supplies and aid to support. He has used his position to also undermine some of the disinformation. Nothing there promotes being “scared.”
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,710
51,001
136
Cant find the article right now but something about Putins red button and yes-men all the way down… Scary shit.
I could see a situation where Putin sees the end coming and decides to launch to try and save himself but I personally have serious doubts as to if anyone would carry out that order.

Regardless, I am very confident that in an organization like the Russian Military individual commanders do not have independent launch capabilities.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,710
51,001
136
Assuming this went through holy shit what a defeat for Putin.

Deeper integration with Europe and likely EU accession all but certain. We can easily rearm Ukraine with more soon so be surplus Russian weapons and rebuild their native arms industry which was already pretty capable.

Wow - if an actual deal happens on these terms this is effectively a Russian surrender. Essentially the only thing Ukraine is giving up is the ability to join NATO, which already wasn't happening. So essentially Russia nuked its economy, watched its army be humiliated in front of the whole world, and got thousands of people killed for what amounts to a return to the antebellum status quo.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,825
2,007
136
If you'll notice he ignores any substantive criticism of his points and has entirely adopted the language of Russian propaganda. He calls Ukraine's democratically elected government the 'regime', he links directly to Russian propaganda sites, etc. Whatever the reason he's not interested in debate, he's just trying to keep pumping out Russian lies.

Agreed. It’s very sad to see. Ignore may be the best option.
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,927
3,691
136
Wow - if an actual deal happens on these terms this is effectively a Russian surrender. Essentially the only thing Ukraine is giving up is the ability to join NATO, which already wasn't happening. So essentially Russia nuked its economy, watched its army be humiliated in front of the whole world, and got thousands of people killed for what amounts to a return to the antebellum status quo.
I'm guessing Russia, at a minimum, will also insist on formal recognition of Crimea as Russian. Russia was also pushing for formal recognition of "independence" of DNR/LNR, although agreeing boundaries there will be difficult. Basically formal recognition of the status-quo ante.
 

nOOky

Diamond Member
Aug 17, 2004
3,016
2,030
136
Why would I want for ONLY those people to go? I'm simply saying that American volunteerism has been around a long time and you should probably not be irritated by it, or people suggesting the walk match the talk.

Gung ho is an admirable quality, I don't mean to make light of it. It just does more good in Ukraine than it does 'over here.' If you're going to advocate war I think it's only fair you be willing to share in the risk. Being ready to sacrifice the lives of your countrymen for something you yourself wouldn't fight for is a bad look.

I did my time from 1986 to 1993 during the first gulf war. I had horrible eyesight so I was limited in the military MOS's that I could do, and my unit wasn't called up, and they were not taking Huey mechanics as the Blackhawk was being pressed into it's first real usage. But is that not good enough for you? Should I have made my own way over there to show how much gung ho I had?
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,710
51,001
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I'm guessing Russia, at a minimum, will also insist on formal recognition of Crimea as Russian. Russia was also pushing for formal recognition of "independence" of DNR/LNR, although agreeing boundaries there will be difficult. Basically formal recognition of the status-quo ante.
I would think so as well - a deal like the one outlined above indicates a catastrophic defeat for Russia. Hard for me to imagine them sacrificing so much and then walking away with essentially nothing. I hope it's true though!
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,246
37,676
136
Wow - if an actual deal happens on these terms this is effectively a Russian surrender. Essentially the only thing Ukraine is giving up is the ability to join NATO, which already wasn't happening. So essentially Russia nuked its economy, watched its army be humiliated in front of the whole world, and got thousands of people killed for what amounts to a return to the antebellum status quo.

I don't think a much more united Europe that is going to massively rearm was on his agenda either.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
62,483
8,344
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Assuming this went through holy shit what a defeat for Putin.

Deeper integration with Europe and likely EU accession all but certain. We can easily rearm Ukraine with more soon so be surplus Russian weapons and rebuild their native arms industry which was already pretty capable.


Is "Russia gets legal status in Ukraine" basically conceding Crimea and the eastern regions? That's what I read it as but not sure.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
24,030
13,539
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Assuming this went through holy shit what a defeat for Putin.

Deeper integration with Europe and likely EU accession all but certain. We can easily rearm Ukraine with more soon so be surplus Russian weapons and rebuild their native arms industry which was already pretty capable.

Please please please let this happen…
Or maybe drag it out another week and get a better deal? I would think Ukraine wants some assurance and reparations?
 
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