Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[iRONic]

Counterpoint: Nukes.

If Russia didn't have nukes, we would have at minimum enforced a no fly zone by now, if not a full-on Gulf War style air campaign. The Russian air force and their air defense haven't even managed to shut down the Ukrainian air force, so NATO would be having a field day.

But, Russia has nukes. 6500 of them. As much of an insane humanitarian tragedy as the invasion is, nuclear war would be much, much worse. Any argument for NATO involvement has to face that fact, and argue that Putin will not cross that line and let the genie out of the bottle. With how Putin's been acting, that's a worrying prospect.

I don't think it's ideology keeping NATO out, I think it's that fact that trying to save Kyiv with direct intervention could cost us Kyiv, Moscow, Berlin, London, New York and essentially every other major population center.

From the piece @number 1 posted:

"The American fear of escalation has been a repeated note throughout this conflict. But to the extent American leaders express that sentiment, or spread such notions to receptive reporters, they make matters worse, giving the Russians a psychological edge. The Russians can (and do) threaten to ratchet things up, knowing that the West will respond with increased anxiety rather than reciprocal menace. We have yet to see, for example, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin telling the world what a wretched hand the Russians are playing militarily, and how superior ours is—a message he is particularly fit to deliver."

Cohen addressed the nuclear issue also:

"As for the nuclear question: We should not signal to the Russians that they have a trump card they can always play to stop us from doing pretty much anything. Nuclear weapons are why the United States should refrain from attacking Russia directly, not why it should fear fighting Russians in a country they invaded. Only a few years ago, the United States Air Force killed Russian Wagner mercenaries by the hundreds in Syria; American and Russian pilots tangled in the skies over Korea and possibly Vietnam. Nuclear deterrence cuts both ways, and the Russian leadership knows it. Vladimir Putin and those around him are ill-informed but not mad, and the use of nuclear weapons would threaten their very survival."

 

[DisarmedDespot]

Do all nuclear nations simply get to attack a victim of their choice?
Do they all get to commit genocide while we sit back and watch?
MAD is for ensuring your nation continues to exist. Not for ensuring the removal of other nations.

Ukraine is a case where our military needs to engage directly. Against everything outside Russian soil.

Europe is suffering a multi-million person refugee crisis. This is Russia's act of war against Europe / NATO and we must use deadly force to push back and bring it to an end.

Do they get the right to commit atrocities, commit genocide and invade their neighbors? No, but it does mean the response needs to keep those 6500 nukes in mind.

So, let's say we DO get involved militarily, and we announce we're going to defend Ukrainian lands. Do we take Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk and return them to Ukrainian control since they were clearly illegally taken away in blatant powergrabs? Putin's got it set in his mind that they're Russian turf, no matter what the observable reality is. Can you say for 100% sure he wouldn't set that as a red line in the sand and wouldn't hit the launch button? That's the thing, even if the risk of him launching is low, the cost is damn near infinite. It's not as simple as making glorious pronunciations on a forum, it's a massive risk. We're not saving anyone in Ukraine if Kyiv gets hit with a MIRV.

NATO needs to be smart about its next moves, be it arming Ukraine to the teeth with more than just MANPADs and Javelins or some more limited form of intervention, but it needs to be done in such a way to not set the whole world aflame.

 

[Iron Woode]

Kira Rudyk is ready to shoot to kill:

In Kyiv, political leader Kira Rudyk has her rifle ready: ‘I’m on Putin’s kill list’

Rudyk is part of the civilian resistance in Ukraine ready to fend off the Russian invaders: 'I know how to shoot a rifle'

nationalpost.com

 

[tweaker2]

Kira Rudyk is ready to shoot to kill:

In Kyiv, political leader Kira Rudyk has her rifle ready: ‘I’m on Putin’s kill list’

Rudyk is part of the civilian resistance in Ukraine ready to fend off the Russian invaders: 'I know how to shoot a rifle'

nationalpost.com

That lady really does make Marjorie Taylor Greene look to be the fake gun-toting corporate owned rabble rouser that she is.

 

[BoomerD]

I’m surprised because 76 and chevron have some of the highest gas prices while shell, who hasn’t changed their operations had cheaper gas.

I’d love the government to look into price gouging by this company.

Shell is the most expensive gasoline in our area. They've dropped to $4.99...25 cents more than the local 76 station.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Ffs is China really going to go through with this?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503417654232682496

 

[BoomerD]

Ffs is China really going to go through with this?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503417654232682496

Time for a total boycott of Chinese-made goods.

 

[K1052]

Ffs is China really going to go through with this?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503417654232682496

In the area of "Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?" this would be a weird risky choice for the Chinese government.

 

[alien42]

Time for a total boycott of Chinese-made goods.

lol, that would be worse than the sanctions Russian is dealing with.

 

[rommelrommel]

FWIW. Some perspective on the Russian doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons.

Sure, but not really. Doctrine about how to use them is mostly irrelevant because Putin would not use them as a military tactic, but a diplomatic one.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

In the area of "Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?" this would be a weird risky choice for the Chinese government.

I suspect they're trying to bait Xi into publicly renouncing any possible support for Russia, to make it clear. 'Signaling willingness' is kind of a waffled wording vs 'China will be sending aid'.

 

[rommelrommel]

Do they get the right to commit atrocities, commit genocide and invade their neighbors? No, but it does mean the response needs to keep those 6500 nukes in mind.

So, let's say we DO get involved militarily, and we announce we're going to defend Ukrainian lands. Do we take Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk and return them to Ukrainian control since they were clearly illegally taken away in blatant powergrabs? Putin's got it set in his mind that they're Russian turf, no matter what the observable reality is. Can you say for 100% sure he wouldn't set that as a red line in the sand and wouldn't hit the launch button? That's the thing, even if the risk of him launching is low, the cost is damn near infinite. It's not as simple as making glorious pronunciations on a forum, it's a massive risk. We're not saving anyone in Ukraine if Kyiv gets hit with a MIRV.

NATO needs to be smart about its next moves, be it arming Ukraine to the teeth with more than just MANPADs and Javelins or some more limited form of intervention, but it needs to be done in such a way to not set the whole world aflame.

If the Russian army was shattered by NATO air power what Ukraine chose to do about those territories would be up to them and not us.

 

[K1052]

I suspect they're trying to bait Xi into publicly renouncing any possible support for Russia, to make it clear. 'Signaling willingness' is kind of a waffled wording vs 'China will be sending aid'.

True and what kind of aid exactly isn't explained. Like some trucks or we talking SRBMs? It would get nuts fast if the Russians start dropping Chinese made missiles on NATO for any reason (including incompetence).

 

[Dave_5k]

In the area of "Why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free?" this would be a weird risky choice for the Chinese government.

I could see the Chinese selling surveillance package that Russia would find quite useful, without it falling over line of "direct" military support, both for use in Moscow and Ukraine (e.g. very large number of high resolution unarmed surveillance drones and cameras, feeding networked system complete with real-time facial recognition and target recognition support).

Or even just a bunch of supply trucks with working tires and (un-expired) MRE's that they could mislabel as humanitarian aid

 

[BoomerD]

lol, that would be worse than the sanctions Russian is dealing with.

From the VERY right-wing Mallard Fillmore in 2001

 

[Muse]

Counterpoint: Nukes.

If Russia didn't have nukes, we would have at minimum enforced a no fly zone by now, if not a full-on Gulf War style air campaign. The Russian air force and their air defense haven't even managed to shut down the Ukrainian air force, so NATO would be having a field day.

But, Russia has nukes. 6500 of them. As much of an insane humanitarian tragedy as the invasion is, nuclear war would be much, much worse. Any argument for NATO involvement has to face that fact, and argue that Putin will not cross that line and let the genie out of the bottle. With how Putin's been acting, that's a worrying prospect.

I don't think it's ideology keeping NATO out, I think it's that fact that trying to save Kyiv with direct intervention could cost us Kyiv, Moscow, Berlin, London, New York and essentially every other major population center.

I do not want to live in an authoritarian/fascist world merely because of a fear that person(s) holding the keys to monstrous nuclear destruction to all could at least in theory say "damn it all, if I/we can't have it our way, we'll blow everybody up." Call their goddamn bluff: NFZ.

 

[woolfe9998]

There is no right or wrong in geopolitics… There should be and maybe we’ll get to engineer it that way someday, but if you view it through any other optics than power, you’re doing it wrong.
The right thing right now would be to get boots on the ground in Ukraine. Its the moral ethical and sympathetic thing to do.
So why dont we?
Someone earlier said “don’t interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake” <- And this is it, 100%, the players of games is letting Putin punch himself tired, wear himself out, and using Ukraine as the proverbial punching bag as the catalyst. Ukraine is gonna be leveled before this is over, Ukraine is gonna pay the price for us to wage our western ideology vs Putinism, and our skin in the game is minimal. Its disgusting.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you in a country that would not necessarily be nuked in the event things get out of hand?

 

[dainthomas]

Ffs is China really going to go through with this?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1503417654232682496

More junk tires or whatever?

 

[woolfe9998]

Russia close to defaulting on its foreign debt.

Russia could default on its debt within days

Russia has sent the clearest signal yet that it will soon default — the first time it will have failed to meet its foreign debt obligations since the Bolshevik revolution more than a century ago.

www.cnn.com

 

[amd6502]

True and what kind of aid exactly isn't explained. Like some trucks or we talking SRBMs? It would get nuts fast if the Russians start dropping Chinese made missiles on NATO for any reason (including incompetence).

My guess is drones and biopathogen forensics to piece together the nature of what pathogen rearch has been done in Ukraine over the past 8 or so years.

Drone technology is one area where Russians may be behind and China is ahead, or at least where there are areas and applications where RU is lacking and CN is not.

Where will Nurenberg be this time?

You haven't heard of Nuremberg 2.0?

I was going to say, if the presence of Nazi militias is cause to invade a country, the US is in big, big trouble.

This is the biggest nonsequitor I've heard in a long time. I've lived in the US for decades, in four states on 3 out of 4 corners of the US and I've never ever seen a single Nazi, or know of any friend or aquaintance who has. Ask a dozen or so random Ukranians in SE Ukraine if they've ever seen a Nazi, or knows of a friend or family member who's had a run in with a Nazi or right wing extremist radical insurgents.

Assuming anyone here actually knows any real Nazi in the US, can you describe the extent of their extremism? Are they armed with 152mm artillery? Guided anti-tank munitions? Do they regularly shell neighboring townships? Do they hold fellow resident hostage as human shields? Do they go around setting up checkpoints around cities and occasionally shoot ex-NY Times reporters (yes, this is a reference to Brent Renaud).

Personally I know zero, and am aquainted only with people who also know zero Nazi members nor had any run-in's with one. I'm very interested from hearing from anyone who actually shares a different experience.

 

[dullard]

Russia close to defaulting on its foreign debt.

Russia could default on its debt within days

Russia has sent the clearest signal yet that it will soon default — the first time it will have failed to meet its foreign debt obligations since the Bolshevik revolution more than a century ago.

www.cnn.com

I don't understand the logic behind not letting Russia pay the debts. Sure, we don't want money going INTO Russia. But, why are we sanctioning money going OUT of Russia? Heck, I'd like to see them pay their dollar denominated debt with rubles. Then convert them into dollars and see the ruble plunge even further.

 

[pete6032]

Absolute Must read!

America’s Hesitation Is Heartbreaking

YeAh BuT wHaT aBoUt GaS pRiCeS!?

 

[fskimospy]

My guess is drones and biopathogen forensics to piece together the nature of what pathogen rearch has been done in Ukraine over the past 8 or so years.

Drone technology is one area where Russians may be behind and China is ahead, or at least where there are areas and applications where RU is lacking and CN is not.



You haven't heard of Nuremberg 2.0?


This is the biggest nonsequitor I've heard in a long time. I've lived in the US for decades, in four states on 3 out of 4 corners of the US and I've never ever seen a single Nazi, or know of any friend or aquaintance who has. Ask a dozen or so random Ukranians in SE Ukraine if they've ever seen a Nazi, or knows of a friend or family member who's had a run in with a Nazi or right wing extremist radical insurgents.

Assuming anyone here actually knows any real Nazi in the US, can you describe the extent of their extremism? Are they armed with 152mm artillery? Guided anti-tank munitions? Do they regularly shell neighboring townships? Do they hold fellow resident hostage as human shields? Do they go around setting up checkpoints around cities and occasionally shoot ex-NY Times reporters (yes, this is a reference to Brent Renaud).

Personally I know zero, and am aquainted only with people who also know zero Nazi members nor had any run-in's with one. I'm very interested from hearing from anyone who actually shares a different experience.

I think you're missing the relatively important point that the presence of those guys in SE Ukraine has zero to do with why Putin decided to invade. It wasn't Nazis, it wasn't NATO, it wasn't make believe nuclear weapons. Putin doesn't give a shit about Nazis, if anything Russia has adopted much of the ideology and governance structure of Nazism. Putin decided to invade because Ukraine was attempting to move out of their orbit. Period.

Russia is transparently lying about its motivations for invading and we all know it. Why insist on pretending to believe them?

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Zuckerkovski .....


Ukraine
Meta Changes Stance on Violent Posts in Ukraine as Russia Bans Instagram

The company will no longer allow users to call for the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin amid the ongoing war.

 

[K1052]

biopathogen forensics to piece together

lol