Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,494
8,764
136
I can't imagine how this ends. No positive outcome seems plausible, but there has to be something?

I don't know if sanctions could create enough pressure to remove Putin. The people he really depends on, the small group of those immediately around him, everyone says are not the folk who will be hurt by sanctions, because they are all hard-cases, motivated by nationalism rather than a desire for a comfortable lifestyle.

The sanctions will clobber all the outer elites, the jet-setting oligarchs (and I'm more than happy to see them all be badly hit and lose their huge London houses and their yachts and private school places for their children) but apparently those guys don't have much political power in Russia (ironically, they probably have more political influence in the West).

And Russian public opinion seems to be mostly pro-war. I suppose because of a mix of nationalism and propaganda and restricted access to information.

I can't visualise a non-ghastly way out of this. It would take a long time, and a lot of suffering on both sides in the conflict, for the Russian public to become sufficiently angry about the war to stand up to Putin's state apparatus. And that probably won't be a pretty sight if it happens. Seems more plausible for him to be removed in a "palace coup", but I don't know what would be required to persuade his inner circle to turn against him like that.
Kasparov has been applying his legendary concentration/focus to this crisis... he was the best chess player on earth!!!) to keep abreast of this thing and he's been into all this ever since before Putin came to power (he's always been totally against Putin and he explains why). He IS in favor of a NFZ. He's convinced that Russian pilots and their leaders won't violate it because it would be suicide. They'd be shot down, plain and simple, they are no match for NATO. They don't have the temperament to challenge it. This is a good listen but it is not the whole thing, it's just the first 37 minutes. But you sure get the idea.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,282
10,879
136
I guess I'm just slow on the uptake but watching this, I think I'm only now really appreciating how terrible the ground is for what the Russians have brought to bare, in the worst time possible. I keep thinking of them getting attacked and running out of fuel, moving slowly through the mud...but really it's just the ground has flat out eaten so much of their armor, and they have no choice but to turn back.

wow. Just, all of that wiped out because of a 2 week delay! --and of course the clear lack of preparing for such contingencies, like uh, having a force that can actually roll through those single-lane conditions, or something. I dunno.

But damn, your invasion stopped by mud, wiping out your uh, military budget.

that has to sting
They need some Ice-Nine.

(From Kurt Vonnegut's Cat's Cradle)
 

Artorias

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2014
2,148
1,435
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That ratio is something that cannot continue. They might have much equipment, but the burn rate and the inability to replace much will soon impact their ability to move forward.

At this rate they might just have to walk it back home across the border because they will out of transports, and fuel. If this continue they could just also all starve to death because good luck feeding their force.


FNkK4zfXEAQaLuY
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,165
30,117
146

speculation that the Ukrainians have started to use the TB2's to get at command posts

this is crazy.

dropping gift packages on your forward command centers...if true...you know vladdy is watching it. .lmfao.

now all he is thinking is which one of his top 5 is the rat. and that's all he's thinking right now. hahahaha.

then it will be #4, and so on. and on.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,494
8,764
136
And with a crippled economy. They aren't going to miraculously pull out all the resources they need. I think Putin is done, he just doesn't know it yet. Just hoping he doesn't do much more damage going out the door.
I'd hope there are people there who are in a position to insure that doesn't happen, that is "damage going out the door."
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,494
8,764
136
It does seem that Putin's ill-begotten excursion into Ukraine is going to end the same way it ended for them in Afghanistan. Difference being the effects of the sanctions being levied on him, his fellow oligarchs and the effects of which the people of their nation will suffer from is going to hit progressively harder the longer the Ukrainians can put up a protracted guerilla war against the Russian invaders.
I can't imagine the sanctions would just disappear if Russia puts Ukraine in a stranglehold. Putin really has stepped into his own trap.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
15,282
10,879
136
And the Bear joins the fight … Russia has even deployed their strategic heavy bombers now (albeit from a safe distance), they are now basically all in with every conventional weapon in their arsenal, even those usually withheld for strategic deterrence…
Too bad they are using stand off weapons. Would love to see Ukraine bag a bear.
 
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amd6502

Senior member
Apr 21, 2017
971
360
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Is it possible we may get a new episode of Storage Jars? Perhaps from Odessa embedded in a UN bioweapons investigation team, or any of the other ~29 locations. Those can't be cheap to build and staff. Lots of DoD funding. I wonder for what.

Russia is insisting this be investigated. I think we all want to get to the bottom of this so why not.

 

Racan

Golden Member
Sep 22, 2012
1,151
2,087
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Some 45% to 54% of the world's semiconductor-grade neon, critical for the lasers used to make chips, comes from two Ukrainian companies, Ingas and Cryoin, according to Reuters calculations based on figures from the companies and market research firm Techcet.

Did not know about this.
 

itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
2,931
3,556
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Is it possible we may get a new episode of Storage Jars? Perhaps from Odessa embedded in a UN bioweapons investigation team, or any of the other ~29 locations. Those can't be cheap to build and staff. Lots of DoD funding. I wonder for what.

Russia is insisting this be investigated. I think we all want to get to the bottom of this so why not.

NO we dont, I feel its much more important we get to the bottom of why amd6502 is a triple Chinese , Russian and myanmar agent.
itsmydamnation is insisting this be investigated. I think we all want to get to the bottom of this so why not. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

, but Puters boots need some licking ......
 
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amd6502

Senior member
Apr 21, 2017
971
360
136
NO we dont, I feel its much more important we get to the bottom of why amd6502 is a triple Chinese , Russian and myanmar agent.
itsmydamnation is insisting this be investigated. I think we all want to get to the bottom of this so why not. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

, but Puters boots need some licking ......

I listened to various of the other countries, and I think it was either India or Brazil who made a good point. Before inspections teams go in there needs to be an end of hostilities. So this could be a way to broker an end of hostilities. If US or Kiev had no aquisition or development of bio agents, then welcome an investigation as well as end the hostilities.
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,241
5,810
126
I listened to various of the other countries, and I think it was either India or Brazil who made a good point. Before inspections teams go in there needs to be an end of hostilities. So this could be a way to broker an end of hostilities. If US or Kiev had no aquisition or development of bio agents, then welcome an investigation as well as end the hostilities.

Russia knows where the Exits are.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,674
8,578
136
I assume you're talking about Putin. I probably haven't seen the videos you're referring to but I have noticed and made note of and wondered considerably about Putin's fidgeting in videos I've seen the last few months, i.e. before the invasion. His body language has been concerning. He definitely doesn't look self possessed.


There were some claims in the media, long before the invasion, that he might be developing Parkinsons. Based on observations of his physical movements.

(Parkinsons can also be associated with a form of dementia)

Edit - though, just as with Trump, it's probably a comforting cop-out to ascribe everything to the leader's psychological/neurological dysfunction. There are reasons why irrational leaders get into office (though in Putin's case it's a bit more reasonable to make it all about the leader, as it's even less of a functioning democracy than is the US).
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,411
3,192
146
I listened to various of the other countries, and I think it was either India or Brazil who made a good point. Before inspections teams go in there needs to be an end of hostilities. So this could be a way to broker an end of hostilities. If US or Kiev had no aquisition or development of bio agents, then welcome an investigation as well as end the hostilities.

Fill your bosses in on this strategy.
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,062
5,005
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