Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[dainthomas]

Video of a drone striking the big convoy.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500942046009438208

In a related note, saw an article that mentioned the Kyiv zoo named their new baby lemur Bayraktar. Sad story though because overall the animals aren't doing great.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

So who's winning? Anybody keeping score?

 

[nakedfrog]

So who's winning? Anybody keeping score?

Nobody. Everyone is losing.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Youch

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500935164779810822

 

[brycejones]

So who's winning? Anybody keeping score?

The official score board is only available on Twitter. Anyone who accesses it is forbidden to discuss the score by the terms or service.

 

[guidryp]

Nobody. Everyone is losing.

Exactly. This is losing situation for everyone.

Ukrainians first and foremost, with their country being bombarded and destroyed, and their innocent citizens being ruthlessly murdered.

Russia is heading back into the dark ages as world pariah state. Though they will still be able to trade with China, the largest enabler of pariah states.

The people of Russia who want nothing to do with this war, are powerless and will be locked behind the iron curtain again.

Only in some dark twisted corner of Putins mind does him destroying Ukraine and it's citizens, and enslaving Russia's citizens count as a Win. I can only guess it makes him feel strong to murder, destroy and enslave.

 

[kage69]

Good luck with those versus drones.

A bunch of farmers with sledgehammers, tractor and a good chain could do it. Beat those rails out of alignment, remove some pins and supports, that train will stop or be derailed.

Or just two small charges of something suitable placed by hand. One to stop the train by blowing the tracks up in front of it. Another to cut the rails behind the train so it can't reverse to safety. Then that whale is beached, have at it.

Imagine the rocket and gun strafing you can give a stranded train with modern attack aircraft and gunships. It wouldn't be pretty.

 

[sportage]

Down right disgusting watching Fox news pretend that they care and have compassion. Do they have a clue of how wrong they were from the beginning? And if they were so wrong on Putin and Ukraine, just imagine what else Fox has been wrong on over the years. It boggles the mind.

 

[cytg111]

Youch

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500935164779810822

So, 40K Russian troops off the board... out of a total of 190K committed to the cause (out of 280k total ground troops?).

40K is a dent. A noticeable dent. Russia could be pretty naked after this.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Not going to have much Frontline combat strength in a month or less at this rate. If their attrition doesn't slow considerably they won't be able to hold off spirit Halloween stores, let alone a functional military.

 

[pauldun170]

So, 40K Russian troops off the board... out of a total of 190K committed to the cause (out of 280k total ground troops?).

40K is a dent. A noticeable dent. Russia could be pretty naked after this.

Here is the notable bit....
If the entire fucking military collapsed tomorrow, exactly 0 countries would take advantage of Russia's collapse and try and attack Russia.
No NATO attacks.
No incursions by neighbors.
Nothing.
At worst, their forces get asked to depart from whatever country they are deployed in.

We'd wait X amount of time, preferably after Putin is dead and start prodding....
"Hey...if you apologize to Ukraine and float them some bucks to rebuild after all the damage you did, we'd be interested in doing business with you again."

That's the reality of Russia risks

 

[K1052]

Not going to have much Frontline combat strength in a month or less at this rate. If their attrition doesn't slow considerably they won't be able to hold off spirit Halloween stores, let alone a functional military.

If the Ukrainians can hold out that long yeah. They appear to have dramatically slowed or stopped the advances from the north and west. Southern front will eventually be a bigger problem but the Russians have lost a ton of momentum and are paying dearly. The Russians still, on paper, have a ton of combat strength but it is a really open question how usable it is for their goals.

This was supposed to be over in a few days and it entirely appears there was no plan for what if it wasn't besides just send more men and stuff.

 

[K1052]

wut?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1500970445889327118

 

[HurleyBird]

So, 40K Russian troops off the board... out of a total of 190K committed to the cause (out of 280k total ground troops?).

40K is a dent. A noticeable dent. Russia could be pretty naked after this.

I'm sure Russia has lost more than they will admit to, but take Ukrainian estimates of Russian losses with a grain of salt too. Both sides have spread a lot of propaganda.

 

[Pens1566]

Here is the notable bit....
If the entire fucking military collapsed tomorrow, exactly 0 countries would take advantage of Russia's collapse and try and attack Russia.
No NATO attacks.
No incursions by neighbors.
Nothing.
At worst, their forces get asked to depart from whatever country they are deployed in.

We'd wait X amount of time, preferably after Putin is dead and start prodding....
"Hey...if you apologize to Ukraine and float them some bucks to rebuild after all the damage you did, we'd be interested in doing business with you again."

That's the reality of Russia risks

There'd be no attempt to invade for colonization, but I guarantee there'd be some discussion about entering to secure nuclear stockpiles before they disappear for the black market.

 

[K1052]

Seems like the answer to why haven't the Russians jammed all commercial communications is because...they need them to actually talk to each other. Good god.

 

[NostaSeronx]

The only outcome that would be agreeable to the world is when Ukraine reverse card unos Russia and annexes them. Effectively, ending the European Front and giving Ukraine a means to pay back war loans.

 

[cytg111]

Here is the notable bit....
If the entire fucking military collapsed tomorrow, exactly 0 countries would take advantage of Russia's collapse and try and attack Russia.
No NATO attacks.
No incursions by neighbors.
Nothing.
At worst, their forces get asked to depart from whatever country they are deployed in.

We'd wait X amount of time, preferably after Putin is dead and start prodding....
"Hey...if you apologize to Ukraine and float them some bucks to rebuild after all the damage you did, we'd be interested in doing business with you again."

That's the reality of Russia risks

6K nukes is a lot of nukes. Question is if its a manageable number - by whatever means.
But yea, the long way around, I get it. Hopefully whatever comes after Putin is, ehm, with a different vision for what it will mean to be Russian.

 

[Thump553]

Japan has wanted the closest few islands back ever since Russia took them in 1945 in WWII. They have been bickering back and forth ever since.

If Japan gets sucked into this war, then it is a pretty significant escalation. If this is just blustering, then it is basically a continuation of the same blustering that has been going on for Putin's whole life.

As far as I know Russia and Japan have never signed a peace treaty after WWII.

Why Japan and Russia never signed a WWII peace treaty

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Japan on Thursday for talks with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe aimed at improving ties, but both sides have scaled back expectations of major progress toward…

asiatimes.com

BTW Russia didn't declare war against Japan until the very final days of WWII and the reason they did it then was to do territory grabs (North Korea and these islands in particular).

 

[DisarmedDespot]

Seems like the answer to why haven't the Russians jammed all commercial communications is because...they need them to actually talk to each other. Good god.

At this point I'm beginning to question if Russia can turn this around without taking months and months of losses. If it was just hubris and bad planning, sure, but this is starting to sound like complete and total institutional failure. Did they go out of their way to remove every competent officer or something?

 

[Ajay]

A bunch of farmers with sledgehammers, tractor and a good chain could do it. Beat those rails out of alignment, remove some pins and supports, that train will stop or be derailed.

Or just two small charges of something suitable placed by hand. One to stop the train by blowing the tracks up in front of it. Another to cut the rails behind the train so it can't reverse to safety. Then that whale is beached, have at it.

Imagine the rocket and gun strafing you can give a stranded train with modern attack aircraft and gunships. It wouldn't be pretty.

Just some RPGs to the engine(s). Then you have a mighty heavy lump of junk blocking the railway. If you want to blow rail - do it under rail bridge - take out supports if you can (shaped charges).

I should add - ala the French resistance (no RPGs though).

 

[Bitek]

Well that's stupid, you don't have to blow up the train, just the track. Hell, a motivated civilian with a propane torch could halt that thing.

Yet I don't understand why they haven't yet.

At some point well have to revisit the lack of preparation by the Ukrainians just before the invasion. Biden was running around saying it was imminent, but Z was saying otherwise up until the last possible moment. Tracks, bridges and roads should have been cut. Civilians moved, conscripts trained.

 

[K1052]

At this point I'm beginning to question if Russia can turn this around without taking months and months of losses. If it was just hubris and bad planning, sure, but this is starting to sound like complete and total institutional failure. Did they go out of their way to remove every competent officer or something?

I expect all of the above plus rampant corruption.

They also can't afford, literally, months more combat. Their national economy has been torpedoed.

 

[K1052]

Yet I don't understand why they haven't yet.

At some point well have to revisit the lack of preparation by the Ukrainians just before the invasion. Biden was running around saying it was imminent, but Z was saying otherwise up until the last possible moment. Tracks, bridges and roads should have been cut. Civilians moved, conscripts trained.

Prevailing feeling on the continent was that it wouldn't, at least not in this way. An all out push for conquest of the county was batshit and nobody thought Putin would be dumb enough to try. Sure maybe try to take the rest of Donbas but march on Kyiv? Not so much.

 

[bguile]

Wasn't that the FOB that got hit with the artillery strike the other day? Unless they have more than one with those weird baby blue Quonset huts. Those things just scream HIT ME!

It looks like it is the same place to me. Could be more footage from the original artillery strike.

I actually found it on google maps. It's some building material business called "Astone" in Kozarovychi which is about 10-12 miles North of Kiev.