Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,136
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Reminds me of when I once hooked up with someone in China and commented on how an American way might be better regarding sanitation in opposition to open air sewers and the whole city smelling like poop.. and she commented, "Are you my father, grandfather or the chairman/ emperor?" if not why should I listen to you?

But that's how things are in some countries and they're taught this is the culture.. you listen to your leaders because they are the wisest and know best!

yes...I've met both sides of this China coin, however, but what you say rings true. :D

Thing is, China has something of a legitimately prideful history to latch onto, with eras of real intellectual freedom. Russia, of all places, still has not had this in, recorded...eh 2 thousand years? That's a lot of fucking years.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,136
30,085
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Seems the Ukrainian forces are finally moving on the West side of highway E38...


shit is moving fast. cutting off an entire front. just decimating meatbags as they get sent to slaughter. While unfortunate to say the least, it's what Russia wants and what Russia desires, so we should feed them.

also the trench digging by AFU, within a Russian oblast. I mean...this is new character and it is going to be permanent, considering what we know that Russia has left, which is nothing. Literally nothing to throw at them but unarmed children. It's time for Russia to toss the last of their human flesh available to them towards this vain pursuit, this unending international warcrime, and let the world sort out their final punishment.

There is no escape for Putin. No matter what he does now, what last gasps of inhuman terror that he orders, it is over for him, and it is over for "Russia." The occupied territory of "Russia," land of the Mongols and the Rus vassal state, will soon be known otherwise.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,004
8,040
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also the trench digging by AFU, within a Russian oblast. I mean...this is new character and it is going to be permanent, considering what we know that Russia has left, which is nothing.
That's a bold assertion.
Hope it is true, but Russia's meat generation has been top notch so far.
Ukraine cannot hold its east. Sure, Russia suffers losses. But Russia is happy to lose life in exchange for land.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,136
30,085
146
That's a bold assertion.
Hope it is true, but Russia's meat generation has been top notch so far.
Ukraine cannot hold its east. Sure, Russia suffers losses. But Russia is happy to lose life in exchange for land.

Russia has never directly faced NATO weapons and tactics...Ukraine just sort of put all that together without telling anyone, last week, and there's no backing down now. I don't think the world has an option at this point. We either commit for them to sustain this move or we cede the moral and world order to fucking mafia fascists. AFU has just forced, best we know, like 3 straight battalions into surrender. What more meat do you think Russia can spare, considering the few bullets wasted on such battalions?

That's the only choice we have to make now, and therefore we keep Ukraine within Russia as long as necessary, because NATO has the ability to sustain this, without question. Ukraine forced the singular decision, and I think there is only one choice to make right now.

Do you agree?
 

bononos

Diamond Member
Aug 21, 2011
3,911
172
106
Watch them hook south, then hit Belgorod from two directions, cause the main source for orc support for the Donbas to collapse. With the exception of some Wagner elements, the Russians are poorly trained and don't really know what the hell they're doing. Those guys don't last long against AFU and their drones, which have been honed into nightmares these last 2 years. Damn right we're seeing large scale surrender now.

Years from now we could be looking at this push into Kursk as the blow that nicked an artery in the Russian bear. Things could really start to spiral downward from here it sounds like. Soon as Trump loses we're going to see Putin change his tune again. In the mean time, Zelenskyy is going to make 'returning to original pre 2014 borders' the least shitty option for Russia.
Does Ukraine have enough men for the Kursk operation. The lack of manpower made the whole attack a surprise to begin with.

The Russian army is still large enough to funnel resources to combat the Ukrainian Kursk operation even if its done in a mediocre manner which is why the more level headed military analysts haven't been predicting a Russian collapse soon. The optimistic view is that it can pull Russian units away from the east and Ukrainians can recapture lost territories since winter 2023 but what seems to be more likely is that Zelensky is only looking for bargaining chips for a way out of the war.
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,037
4,940
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This is interesting. Given the extreme crackdown on dissent, there are very few avenues for ordinary Russians to show their displeasure at the performance of the Russian military operation. But being able to click icons is still available, and it sounds like the Russians are getting sick and tired of the shitty propaganda coming from their leaders... so they be clicking furiously;

1723434375818.png

Source

'Avatars' is a slur on Russia servicemen who drink too much. Apparently there are chemicals in the alcohol supplied to the Army that turns the skin blue. Presumably Andrei Gurulev is an alcoholic?
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,037
4,940
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also the trench digging by AFU, within a Russian oblast.
Yeah that means they are there for the winter.

An interesting thing about this area... if the Ukrainians manages to capture the E38 highway right up to Kursk city, it leaves highways E101 and E105 open for use. Both head straight north to Moscow...

... just saying... :beercheers:

1723435244985.png
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,004
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Russia has never directly faced NATO weapons and tactics...
Russia faced these things in Ukraine's lightning rush of fall 2022.
Russia simply lacked forces back then, but the second Russia mobilized it rapidly stabilized the frontlines.

AFU has just forced, best we know, like 3 straight battalions into surrender. What more meat do you think Russia can spare, considering the few bullets wasted on such battalions?
Russia's original invasion force was some 200,000.
Since then, Russia has lost 600,000.
I do not see how losing a few thousand more in Kursk makes any difference with regards to Russia's manpower situation.

My point was that "Russia cannot handle this, cannot push back" is one hell of a bold assertion given what we have seen.
If Ukraine prepares, and prepares well, they can make Russia lose many thousands of men to reclaim Kursk.
I like that prospect, I just don't think this is a crushing blow. I'd be more celebratory if Ukraine took E-38, the NPP, or even wiped Kursk city off the map.
 

misuspita

Senior member
Jul 15, 2006
498
592
136
It's not as simple as "losing a few thousand". Russia doesn't know what Ukraine wants to do in Kursk, if they are employing a small force or a full invasion to conquer and claim the land. Or how much territory they want to grab or what's the next direction of attack. Ukraine might cut all their northern supply lines to the front if they would extend their attacks. So they must prepare to defend with the worst case in mind, and withdraw important offensive forces from other fronts where they were already making good progress, or were let to think so. And they can't use their favourite line "we'll nuke them", because... It's russian land.

That weakens those older fronts and, as this is a reactive response, would probably have been calculated by Ukraine command and so they might push after a few days/weeks on a old open and not so much defended front. Or not, who knows. It's still unfolding.

As for Ukraine not having enough troups, I am very confident they bluffed from the beginning of the year, shouting they do not have enough weapons to defend, but in fact hiding the supplies from the public eye and Ru spies and manned enough battalions to execute a real invasion of Russian lands. I always thought it is stupid from all western countries to shout their exact number of help they send, practically telling Russia what to expect. I think there is a lot of things that were not told in the open in the last 6 months. We shall see, because for now all we know is what we hear from the Russian milblog and regular mobiks, plus some info that some can scrape unofficially.
 

bononos

Diamond Member
Aug 21, 2011
3,911
172
106
...........
As for Ukraine not having enough troups, I am very confident they bluffed from the beginning of the year, shouting they do not have enough weapons to defend, but in fact hiding the supplies from the public eye and Ru spies and manned enough battalions to execute a real invasion of Russian lands. I always thought it is stupid from all western countries to shout their exact number of help they send, practically telling Russia what to expect. I think there is a lot of things that were not told in the open in the last 6 months. We shall see, because for now all we know is what we hear from the Russian milblog and regular mobiks, plus some info that some can scrape unofficially.
We'll see if Ukraine can keep up the momentum in the Kursk sector and also if they can defend their towns/cities in the east.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,004
8,040
136
If Moscow is threatened, it doesn't matter what happens in the East.
Moscow?
Wake me when Kursk city is being threatened.

Ukraine holding land is a threat to Russia's invasion force in Kharkiv. It is a talking point for international borders, for those dimwits who want Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. But we have seen every advance stalls when the enemy has time to prepare. When you do not have 10,000 glide bombs per KM. Ukraine may still find some weakness in Kursk, but that window is rapidly closing.
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,998
1,144
126
One thing about this rapid advance into Krusk is that the Ukrainian forces don't have to worry about so many mines. I mean going forward that will change but one issue they have had is dealing with mines in area that Russia controlled for long period of times.
-
Anyway I see a lot of posters get excited about 'war' but just remember you're not actually the one risking limb or life. War is 'fun' to watch but has a horrible impact on those who suffer it.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
15,285
13,581
146
It's not as simple as "losing a few thousand". Russia doesn't know what Ukraine wants to do in Kursk, if they are employing a small force or a full invasion to conquer and claim the land. Or how much territory they want to grab or what's the next direction of attack. Ukraine might cut all their northern supply lines to the front if they would extend their attacks. So they must prepare to defend with the worst case in mind, and withdraw important offensive forces from other fronts where they were already making good progress, or were let to think so. And they can't use their favourite line "we'll nuke them", because... It's russian land.

That weakens those older fronts and, as this is a reactive response, would probably have been calculated by Ukraine command and so they might push after a few days/weeks on a old open and not so much defended front. Or not, who knows. It's still unfolding.

As for Ukraine not having enough troups, I am very confident they bluffed from the beginning of the year, shouting they do not have enough weapons to defend, but in fact hiding the supplies from the public eye and Ru spies and manned enough battalions to execute a real invasion of Russian lands. I always thought it is stupid from all western countries to shout their exact number of help they send, practically telling Russia what to expect. I think there is a lot of things that were not told in the open in the last 6 months. We shall see, because for now all we know is what we hear from the Russian milblog and regular mobiks, plus some info that some can scrape unofficially.
In addition, it's not always about killing troops. An incursion force from Ukraine can cut off supplies from sections of the front, limiting the fighting ability there which would either force a withdrawal, or create an encirclement opportunity. 'do more with less' is the name of the game in a situation like this.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,939
7,458
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Pretty impressive shooting...


But I am sure the Ukrainians have many more... :smilingimp:

Shooting from a moving vehicle at a moving target = lucky shot. What improved the chances of a hit was that both the drone and the vehicle were moving in the same direction at a speed that made the drone appear to be traveling at a low rate of overtake, making the shot much easier to lead, if any. Add in how close the drone was and although it was still a lucky shot to me, the odds were in the shooter's favor.

edit - After viewing the clip it seems to me the drone that was shot was supposed to have been a decoy with another coming from a different direction for the actual hit that somehow didn't occur or occurred after the clip ended. Jus' WAG'in it of course.
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,584
2,942
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That's a bold assertion.
Hope it is true, but Russia's meat generation has been top notch so far.
Ukraine cannot hold its east. Sure, Russia suffers losses. But Russia is happy to lose life in exchange for land.
Meat generation is all well and good but when the bulk of your force is cutoff without hope of resupply and the new conscripts have to punch a hole through defensive works in depth...that's a recipe for a rout. Winter will be on them in roughly 8-10 weeks so it will be very interesting...