Jaskalas
Lifer
- Jun 23, 2004
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Kursk NPP is 60 miles from the border.The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk oblast seems much more serious than previous ones. Russians have lost aviation assets and amongst the chatter are worries that they could make it to the Kursk NPP.
It would be a radical shift in Ukraine's offensive posture and commitment, beyond anything we have seen since 2022, to even come close.
AKA, this would require a last ditch "all in" battle of the bulge scenario.
It would be for the express purpose of nuclear blackmail.
A smaller effort to secure local heights would be far more likely. Unless Ukraine is close to dying and needs a nuclear card.