Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk oblast seems much more serious than previous ones. Russians have lost aviation assets and amongst the chatter are worries that they could make it to the Kursk NPP.
Kursk NPP is 60 miles from the border.

It would be a radical shift in Ukraine's offensive posture and commitment, beyond anything we have seen since 2022, to even come close.
AKA, this would require a last ditch "all in" battle of the bulge scenario.
It would be for the express purpose of nuclear blackmail.

A smaller effort to secure local heights would be far more likely. Unless Ukraine is close to dying and needs a nuclear card.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Kursk NPP is 60 miles from the border.

It would be a radical shift in Ukraine's offensive posture and commitment, beyond anything we have seen since 2022, to even come close.
AKA, this would require a last ditch "all in" battle of the bulge scenario.
It would be for the express purpose of nuclear blackmail.

A smaller effort to secure local heights would be far more likely. Unless Ukraine is close to dying and needs a nuclear card.

The practicality of this depends how bad off the Russian defense is in this region. So far does not look good for them given the speed of the advance. AFU appears to have put real resources into this including air defense as the number of alleged Russian aircraft meeting the ground is going up.

Capturing and mining the KNPP could create the kind of leverage needed to demand the return of ZNPP. I think it's a stretch but maybe not impossible.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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There are a lot of wild rumors and reports out there so waiting to see what's true or not. One consistent thread so far is that Russian forces tasked with defending this area are dramatically subpar. Substantial numbers of surrenders indicated.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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The practicality of this depends how bad off the Russian defense is in this region.
It's a question of manpower.

Russia can throw tens of thousands of men at any problem.
They have done so before. I expect a similar attack on Ukraine's offensive forces shortly.

Just saying, it would be a radical departure from anything we have seen since Russia mobilized - for Ukraine to even threaten, let alone take... and hold... the Kursk NPP 60 miles from the border. It's just too far away.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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It's a question of manpower.

Russia can throw tens of thousands of men at any problem.
They have done so before. I expect a similar attack on Ukraine's offensive forces shortly.

I think eventually the Russians will get organized to do this but how soon is really the question. They've gotten caught off guard and it takes time to reposition troops and form up for attacks.

The Russians have also long since passed the point where they can keep adding manpower to the army without further damaging nearly all other aspects of the Russian economy. Which is why there has not been another mass mobilization yet.
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
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It's a question of manpower.

Russia can throw tens of thousands of men at any problem.
They have done so before. I expect a similar attack on Ukraine's offensive forces shortly.

Just saying, it would be a radical departure from anything we have seen since Russia mobilized - for Ukraine to even threaten, let alone take... and hold... the Kursk NPP 60 miles from the border. It's just too far away.
I think you're wildly overestimating the the ability of the Russian forces to pivot. They've grossly overcommitted to the front lines and the Wagner incident showed how utterly incapable they were in their own backyard.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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I think you're wildly overestimating the the ability of the Russian forces to pivot. They've grossly overcommitted to the front lines and the Wagner incident showed how utterly incapable they were in their own backyard.
I've often wondered what might happen if Ukraine starts dedicating actual resources to incursions into Russian landscape. Like 5% manpower kind of resources. Just a few pokes in the back of the eye, can they defend their own territory the way they do stolen Ukrainian territory?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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I've often wondered what might happen if Ukraine starts dedicating actual resources to incursions into Russian landscape. Like 5% manpower kind of resources. Just a few pokes in the back of the eye, can they defend their own territory the way they do stolen Ukrainian territory?

If the Ukrainians can take and hold Russian territory Putin's suggestion to "freeze the lines" in a ceasefire become somewhat complicated.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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They must actually be relieved. Now they have a chance to live, even if as PoWs, instead of getting murdered for Putin's pleasure.
And in this region at least, there is no well oiled death machine to shoot them in the back as they surrender. Unlike the other fronts.
 
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fskimospy

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Mar 10, 2006
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Ukraine has no nuclear weapons, so there is still one thing Putin can do... that is likely to have no effective response.

We have made it abundantly clear that if he uses nukes NATO will kill the entire Russian army inside Ukraine. Putin for his part appears to believe us.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
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We have made it abundantly clear that if he uses nukes NATO will kill the entire Russian army inside Ukraine. Putin for his part appears to believe us.

I also heard that we let Putin know that the US knows his whereabouts and if he uses Nukes we will go after him personally. Which is probably even more worrying for him knowing the current state of the Russian Air Defense network after Ukraine has spent the last couple of years destroying parts of it.