Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,985
47,938
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Probably has to do with knowing what Russias retaliatory response would be, which is obliterating Ukraines power grid, which is what is going on now.

Not just going for the substations like a couple years ago guys(which can be repaired fairly quickly), now they’re going directly for the thermal/hydro plants.

Fuck around and find out indeed.
The lover of peace has returned!

Since you love peace I’m sure you’re on board with invaders having their infrastructure attacked. After all, wouldn’t that be the best way to maintain the peace you want so badly?
 
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Young Grasshopper

Senior member
Nov 9, 2007
904
291
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Question for @Young Grasshopper - is attacking power infrastructure good or bad?

Ask Zelensky, he is the one who is upset he’s not allowed to target Russian refineries, because he’s run out of ideas for his failing war.

BTW, I should mention targeting energy infrastructure is a classic NATO strategy. Putin waited two years to do this, while NATO destroyed Iraqs telecommunication and energy infrastructure within the first month.

Maybe the Russians stole the idea from NATO.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,034
33,041
136
Putin waited two years to do this, while NATO destroyed Iraqs telecommunication and energy infrastructure within the first month.

uh huh

From December 2022:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/10/europe/ukraine-energy-russian-missiles-intl-cmd/index.html

What Russia cannot win on the battlefield, it is seeking to win by casting Ukrainian cities into the dark and cold as a long winter sets in.

The result is a grinding battle of attrition: Barrages of Russian missiles fly across Ukraine, and Ukrainian power engineers work for days in freezing temperatures to restore power.

Monday saw the largest wave of missile attacks since November 23. Ukraine’s state power generator, Ukrenergo, says that about 40% of normal electrical supply was offline at one point in October.

It’s become known as the electricity deficit, and it swings one way and another depending on missile impacts.

Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, told CNN that “what the Ukrainian energy system has been experiencing since October, no energy system in the world has ever experienced.”
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,985
47,938
136
Ask Zelensky, he is the one who is upset he’s not allowed to target Russian refineries, because he’s run out of ideas for his failing war.

BTW, I should mention targeting energy infrastructure is a classic NATO strategy. Putin waited two years to do this, while NATO destroyed Iraqs telecommunication and energy infrastructure within the first month.

Maybe the Russians stole the idea from NATO.
So is it good or bad? Seems like an easy question to answer.

Oh and your claim that Putin waited to do this is an obvious lie. Why humiliate yourself like this ?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,434
7,497
136
Republicans are winning the war, for Vlad the Butcher.
Ukraine is at the end of the rope. Not enough support to continue full engagements. Land and lives will be lost.
All cities, all people, all resources past the Dnipro are in serious trouble.

And make no mistake. If Ukraine eventually loses all land past the Dnipro, then Ukraine will no longer exist or function. Kyiv will fall and a mass exodus into NATO will occur.
Poland will have to decide if they want mass refugees, or if they want to kill Russians.

“No US aid, no choice but retreat,” Zelenskyy warns

 
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Zor Prime

Senior member
Nov 7, 1999
993
563
136
Hate to say it but YG is correct, it's damned hard to dispute it. Of all times to argue with YG it's particularly hard to argue with him on this one key thing.

There's a difference between now and 2022, etc. Shit changes, if you don't adapt you're going to die. In 2022 Russia went after power distribution, they're now going after power production. Like, there is a difference. Russia could have taken out power production at the very beginning without a single boot on the ground. They did not. Now, they are.

Think about it. If you presume you're going to walk in somewhere and raise a flag in short order, why would you burden yourself with the cost of replacing some incredibly expensive shit. Russia would just love to end this and worry about costs some other time. Power production has to go, and it is. We will see more news of more plants knocked offline in the coming weeks, if not days. And more. And more. Until every weapons production plant is running on diesel generators while civilians are in the dark.

I hope I'm wrong.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,240
36,242
136
I can argue with that. Sounds like you haven't read many of his posts then. He's a pathological liar with no sense of shame. I'd encourage you to review more of his posts before you sling him any praise. There's quite literally dozens, maybe hundreds, of examples of him spewing easily debunked lies here in this very thread. Look how he's trying to misrepresent Zelenskyy (again) as mad right now, just another bit of the fiction they believe, where Ukraine outsources the military decision making to the US. Back in reality, Zelenskyy and the AFU are hitting whatever the fuck they want with their weapons and if Washington doesn't like it, tough. He basically said as much.

This attack on power is bigger this time, but it's not a new tactic. According to DTEK, the largest private producer responsible for about 25% of Ukraine's electricity, Russia launched 1,200 attacks on Ukraine’s energy system between October 2022 and April 2023, with every thermal power and hydro-electric plant in the country sustaining some damage. Ukrainians have been preparing for this. Generators and battery backups everywhere, civilian and military.

Winter's over, that's quite a difference from 2022/23 anyway. They will run the country on diesel if they have to, for however long they need to.

Anyone who thinks Ukraine hasn't been adapting in this war hasn't been paying attention. They've been taking out more Russian vehicles with drones than with artillery, and without a proper navy have absolutely gutted the Black Sea fleet. Some civilian areas might go dark, but domestic weapon production won't, don't worry.
 
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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,699
933
126
This article explains why young grasshit is an asshole as well as raggy doggy dog:
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While the article is about jailing of a journalist for basically doing nothing; it shows that if raggy doggy shit and young grasshit refrain from being the assholes they are they too will end up either in jail or walking out a window. In the wonderful country of Russia even thinking Putin is less than god is extremism that is likely to land you in jail or worse.

Yea right who in their right mind would want to live in such a shitty country that is barely 1/2 step above the shitty place of North Korea; the only reliable trade partner.
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,579
3,085
136
Hate to say it but YG is correct, it's damned hard to dispute it. Of all times to argue with YG it's particularly hard to argue with him on this one key thing.

There's a difference between now and 2022, etc. Shit changes, if you don't adapt you're going to die. In 2022 Russia went after power distribution, they're now going after power production. Like, there is a difference. Russia could have taken out power production at the very beginning without a single boot on the ground. They did not. Now, they are.
In advance of Winter 2022, and again in advance of Winter 2023, Russia struck hard at city combined heat and power plants across Ukraine - including power generation. As well as providing the primary (often only) heat source for most civilians in all major Ukrainian cities.

Russia also captured, booby trapped, crippled, and finally fully shut down the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant, other than taking it over as a new military staging base / depot (safe from Ukraine counter attacks) - shutting down more than 20% of the power generation in Ukraine.

Russia in first two years did disproportionately strike at distribution, but more specifically, focused on high voltage transformers - which are both far softer targets to kill, and far more difficult to repair/replace than power plants. Currently a 2-year lead time at best, to as much as 5-years for custom jobs, to get even a single replacement high voltage transformer.

I think Russia now is just varying targets to find soft spots not covered by air defenses, as remaining high voltage transformers and city combined heat/power units were most certainly provided air defense coverage.
 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,707
4,154
106
Stopping the glide bombs means using ATACMS to kill long range Russian GBAD like S-300 then move more Patriots in to run up the tab on the VKS. This also will open more opportunities for the F-16s to carry out air to surface attacks with the many SDBs they are likely to receive.
Maybe this will happen with long range ATACMS soonish...

Ukraine has been asking the United States for long-range ATACMS missiles since 2021, and the White House has consistently resisted, at least publicly. But the tide may be turning.

Thursday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. C.Q. Brown, told reporters “the risk of escalation is not as high as maybe it was at the beginning.”

Source
 

Zor Prime

Senior member
Nov 7, 1999
993
563
136
Woke up to ISW releasing their assessment of Russia's fixation of power production in Ukraine.

Some of you might want to let them know that they're morons to there's nothing to worry about, or better yet, get onboard there and fix their erroneous reporting for failing to note everything is fine in actuality.

Note: The piece pertaining to "unspecified" critical infrastructure likely includes natural gas storage and things related to rail transit if any of my scouring is accurate.

Dave_5k made a good observation about finding weak spots. I'm inclined to agree, I believe often times Russia is probing when they know damn good and well things aren't likely to hit their target (but if it does, great!) I've read, somewhere, triangulation lead to the downfall of that Patriot battery not long ago (can't remember the source) after getting a compelling area to search ... you know the one I'm talking about, where the guys forgot the scoot in shoot and scoot. Could be bullshit, but there's a degree of sense to the idea.

Recently I read a compelling OpEd touching on Dave_5k's thought about finding weak spots. The piece mentioned Ukraine transports a lot of their guys by rail, and Russia might try disabling rail transit when they launch their presumed summer offensive to slow down the transportation of reserves. Could all be bullshit, but I like to consider potentials and weigh against common sense.

I'll tell you why I don't tend to believe at face value metrics or sometimes even reported events all of the time -- propaganda, which both sides are using for their self fulfillment. Everybody uses it, everybody does it. I am particularly hesitant to believe numbers that are getting thrown around, the death and casualty tolls. I won't 100% believe that shit for a moment, after this is all said and done, sometime in the future, we might begin to know something reminiscent of what actually occurred. Don't wholesale believe your favorite rat in this race. No country, any remotely sensible country, is going to accurately report losses. And if it does, you just found a rare event that's the exception and not the norm. If you want to get most likely an accurate number, well, more accurate than the one being reported, take whatever Ukraine and Russia are reporting and put your needle directly in the middle. You'll probably be closer to the real number.

Don't believe me, as I often have said over the years this is simply entertainment to me and something I do to pass what little free time I do have. I really hate being bored, so I make it a point not to be. Now if I can find some legit details on the 5090 that I am outright lusting and obsessing over, I'll have a good day.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,434
7,850
136
Zelensky confirms the US unhappy with their refinery strike program. Correctly points out that it is entirely fair to use Ukrainian made weapons to retaliate in kind against territorial Russia.


What? Is this official policy from the Biden admin? If understand correctly, the only country in the region that relies on Russian oil is, uh, Hungary. Which is Hung....who cares. Gas goes up 25¢ - good God no! Really, this is insanity.

Apparently, the powers that be in the US, ATM, are satisfied with with the status quo in the UKR/RU war. Very short sighted IMHO, seems like self interests are starting to dominate over the gravity of the situation in Europe + plus the Israel vs Gaza horror soaking up the news cycle (and legitimately). Maybe all this is due in part to posturing for the Election season. For me, average Joe that I am, I'm just frustrated about things I cannot change.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,034
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What? Is this official policy from the Biden admin? If understand correctly, the only country in the region that relies on Russian oil is, uh, Hungary. Which is Hung....who cares. Gas goes up 25¢ - good God no! Really, this is insanity.

Apparently, the powers that be in the US, ATM, are satisfied with with the status quo in the UKR/RU war. Very short sighted IMHO, seems like self interests are starting to dominate over the gravity of the situation in Europe + plus the Israel vs Gaza horror soaking up the news cycle (and legitimately). Maybe all this is due in part to posturing for the Election season. For me, average Joe that I am, I'm just frustrated about things I cannot change.

I think it is just misplaced concern about the energy markets. Concerns about Russian "escalation" have been proven wrong at virtually every turn. The Russian answer for this campaign is to...do the same thing they've been doing for the last two years. Euro cruise missiles are sending the BSF to the great beyond on a somewhat regular basis and the Russians just sit and take it because there really is no choice. We gave Ukraine a few M39s and they smoked a bunch of Russian helicopters and after all the Russian bluster also did nothing.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,240
36,242
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Some of you might want to let them know that they're morons to there's nothing to worry about, or better yet, get onboard there and fix their erroneous reporting for failing to note everything is fine in actuality.

You should leave the false attribution to cyka. Who are you talking about? Which posters here are denying that there is a Russian effort against Ukrainian power infrastructure? You were reminded it's happened before and isn't the end of the world for them. You were provided links detailing the scope of previous attacks as well as Ukrainian preparedness; your distaste about "erroeneous reporting" sounds more like you're kinda just mad about being refuted.

I think it's quite clear the general concensus here is Russians have been the ones acting like morons, and they've done a lot to prove it these last 2 years. No idea why you think anyone here is mocking Ukrainian intelligence or their fighting spirit, there's literally over a thousand pages of posts here of us highlighting and admiring it. Telling you not to worry about the story that's got you so concerned is not telling the Ukrainians they are overreacting to a valid threat. Savvy?

I think your thoughts on propaganda are appropriate, but the delivery falls a little flat when you can't practice those sentiments towards the most ardent, shameless Kremlin troll we have here. Have I missed you taking the cyka to task for any of his "erroneous reporting"?

Don't fall for the BothSides trap. Ukraine's numbers might not be perfect, but theirs isn't a culture of pathological lying. Disinformation isn't a pillar of Ukrainian democracy like it is for Putin's regime.
Ukraine's battlefield estimates are much more in line with independent and state 3rd party orgs, while Russia's are closer to sick comedy. Russia is the one trying to dress up a failed invasion, is furious over 3rd party monitoring efforts. Ukraine welcomes it, has been using AI to archive the faces of Russians both dead and alive, also vehicle data. If you think there is no difference in how each side is conducting itself I don't know what to tell you. Unplug for awhile? Quit listening to news, try to regain some perspective maybe?
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,034
33,041
136
In terms of sustainment it might make sense to buy these and send them to Italy for the rehab/upgrade package Leonardo developed. This includes replacing the 105mm gun with a 120mm which is a significant upgrade in firepower and there is no ammo shortage for it.

There is a large pool of M60A3s globally that could be acquired potentially yielding hundreds of units without a lot of trouble.

 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
15,434
7,850
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Hmm, clicking on these Twitter/X posts are redirecting to nitter.com. My browsers block nitter because it's not https. Anyone else experiencing this?
 

Young Grasshopper

Senior member
Nov 9, 2007
904
291
136
In advance of Winter 2022, and again in advance of Winter 2023, Russia struck hard at city combined heat and power plants across Ukraine - including power generation. As well as providing the primary (often only) heat source for most civilians in all major Ukrainian cities.

Russia also captured, booby trapped, crippled, and finally fully shut down the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant, other than taking it over as a new military staging base / depot (safe from Ukraine counter attacks) - shutting down more than 20% of the power generation in Ukraine.

Russia in first two years did disproportionately strike at distribution, but more specifically, focused on high voltage transformers - which are both far softer targets to kill, and far more difficult to repair/replace than power plants. Currently a 2-year lead time at best, to as much as 5-years for custom jobs, to get even a single replacement high voltage transformer.

I think Russia now is just varying targets to find soft spots not covered by air defenses, as remaining high voltage transformers and city combined heat/power units were most certainly provided air defense coverage.

Nope.

If your argument is Russia is now targeting ‘soft spots’ not covered by air defenses, why didn’t they target this type of infrastructure in Feb or early March of 2022 when Ukraine had not yet received proper air defenses by the west? They could have leveled these power plants before any type of meaningful air defenses arrived. Besides, Russia has an endless supply of missiles. Enough to overwhelm any air defense system if they really wanted to.

They’re doing this JUST NOW in response to weak attempts by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure, and Russias belief that Ukraine was involved in the recent terrorist attack on the concert hall.

BTW, this if what their grid currently looks like:


IMO Putin wanted to keep this a conventional war, but now Ukraine wants to attack Russian energy infrastructure which BTW, has nothing to do with getting territory back, and launch terrorist attacks against Russians, which has nothing to do with getting territory back..

Ukraine starting to play dirty because they’re out of ideas, and Russia showing two can play that game.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,240
36,242
136
"Ukraine's starting to play dirty" :tearsofjoy:

Russia, the poor genocidal victim, and these Ukrainians wanting to exist. It's so unfair.

I like the part where cyka thinks attacking an invader's vulnerable infrastructure has nothing to do with getting territory back. That's the Trump level idiocy I've come to expect from Putin fluffers, and he did not disappoint. Strategery! The country that keeps re writing the book on modern warfare is *checks notes* "out of ideas." Haha!
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,985
47,938
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Nope.

If your argument is Russia is now targeting ‘soft spots’ not covered by air defenses, why didn’t they target this type of infrastructure in Feb or early March of 2022 when Ukraine had not yet received proper air defenses by the west? They could have leveled these power plants before any type of meaningful air defenses arrived. Besides, Russia has an endless supply of missiles. Enough to overwhelm any air defense system if they really wanted to.

They’re doing this JUST NOW in response to weak attempts by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure, and Russias belief that Ukraine was involved in the recent terrorist attack on the concert hall.

BTW, this if what their grid currently looks like:


IMO Putin wanted to keep this a conventional war, but now Ukraine wants to attack Russian energy infrastructure which BTW, has nothing to do with getting territory back, and launch terrorist attacks against Russians, which has nothing to do with getting territory back..

Ukraine starting to play dirty because they’re out of ideas, and Russia showing two can play that game.
Anyone with a working brain and ten fingers can easily google how this is a complete lie. Russia began attacking infrastructure immediately after they realized their initial invasion had failed and their army was routed outside of Kyiv. They even publicly bragged about how Ukraine would freeze and be plunged into darkness!

Don’t you have even the slightest shred of dignity? Why lie about things even the degenerate liars in Russia themselves don’t lie about?
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,240
36,242
136
Anyone with a working brain and ten fingers can easily google how this is a complete lie. Russia began attacking infrastructure immediately after they realized their initial invasion had failed and their army was routed outside of Kyiv. They even publicly bragged about how Ukraine would freeze and be plunged into darkness!

Don’t you have even the slightest shred of dignity? Why lie about things even the degenerate liars in Russia themselves don’t lie about?

Nope.

"1,200 attacks on Ukraine’s energy system between October 2022 and April 2023, with every thermal power and hydro-electric plant in the country sustaining some damage," doesn't mean anything to him. If it doesn't support the current Kremlin narrative it didn't happen for these tools.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,985
47,938
136
Nope.

"1,200 attacks on Ukraine’s energy system between October 2022 and April 2023, with every thermal power and hydro-electric plant in the country sustaining some damage," it doesn't mean anything to him. If it doesn't support the current Kremlin narrative it didn't happen for these tools.
It’s just such a weirdly obvious lie and it also makes Russia look even worse. If attacking infrastructure is ‘fighting dirty’ then the vastly larger country has been fighting dirty from the start and still can’t win.

Just a pathetic, degenerate country. All the rest of the world wants is for them to leave us alone. It’s their own fault their country is such a piece of shit that they have to have places join it by force.
 
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