Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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It's the range, stupid.

A sobering look at the coming of the F-16s. I like the author. He's always detailed and balanced -- as far as I can tell - and seems to have his finger on the pulse of this war's developments, day to day, week to week.

I just glanced through this and a couple things stuck out to me. The range of AIM120C-7 is somewhere in excess of 100km (not 50some as indicated) in air launch and the Russians were indeed losing aircraft when Ukraine's wandering Patriot battery ended up in the right spot with PAC-2s.

Stopping the glide bombs means using ATACMS to kill long range Russian GBAD like S-300 then move more Patriots in to run up the tab on the VKS. This also will open more opportunities for the F-16s to carry out air to surface attacks with the many SDBs they are likely to receive.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
46,092
8,869
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I just glanced through this and a couple things stuck out to me. The range of AIM120C-7 is somewhere in excess of 100km (not 50some as indicated) in air launch and the Russians were indeed losing aircraft when Ukraine's wandering Patriot battery ended up in the right spot with PAC-2s.

Stopping the glide bombs means using ATACMS to kill long range Russian GBAD like S-300 then move more Patriots in to run up the tab on the VKS. This also will open more opportunities for the F-16s to carry out air to surface attacks with the many SDBs they are likely to receive.
Posts like this remind me of why you now bear the title Elite Member!
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,493
36,959
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Good link Perk. I especially appreciate the part at the end that went:

"But, and foremost: one must hope that it’s really so as some are reporting since the last year, and Ukrainians have found one or another R-37M in ‘almost intact’ condition, somewhere in north-western Kherson. If that was the case, then one can be sure that the ‘Men in Black’ of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center (USA) have got enough opportunities to study the weapon and, hopefully, develop effective countermeasures against it."

Mmm hmm. Yoink.

But yeah, the slim numbers of F-16s involved doesn't thrill me, same for the radar they will likely have. Ground AD, MANPADs, 770w of radar power compared to 5kw juicing the radar of Su-35 PESA w/tweaks... Hats off to those brave fuckers. New R-37s are scary. It will help the Russians aren't well trained and are prone to regular bouts of friendly fire.

How we doin on those Mirage 2000Ds, France? If Macron is open to sending troops surely a couple dozen older Mirages can happen? Ukraine wants them. Allons y!
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,290
33,570
136
Good link Perk. I especially appreciate the part at the end that went:

"But, and foremost: one must hope that it’s really so as some are reporting since the last year, and Ukrainians have found one or another R-37M in ‘almost intact’ condition, somewhere in north-western Kherson. If that was the case, then one can be sure that the ‘Men in Black’ of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center (USA) have got enough opportunities to study the weapon and, hopefully, develop effective countermeasures against it."

Mmm hmm. Yoink.

But yeah, the slim numbers of F-16s involved doesn't thrill me, same for the radar they will likely have. Ground AD, MANPADs, 770w of radar power compared to 5kw juicing the radar of Su-35 PESA w/tweaks... Hats off to those brave fuckers. New R-37s are scary. It will help the Russians aren't well trained and are prone to regular bouts of friendly fire.

How we doin on those Mirage 2000Ds, France? If Macron is open to sending troops surely a couple dozen older Mirages can happen? Ukraine wants them. Allons y!

From what I've read they are much more concerned about Russian long range SAMs than the R-37. Not saying it isn't a worry but perhaps not the biggest one for them in practice.

Ukraine does seem to be hunting for both more F-16 frames and another plane. A number of years back they were negotiating with the Swedes to buy and produce Gripen. Supposedly they are talking again more intensely now that Sweden is a NATO member. It will be a pain for them to add a 2nd new type but it's a hedge against anything going wrong in the US politically. The MLUs aren't going to last forever either so a longer term plan is needed.
 

Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,019
587
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Well there's the tic-toc effect in action overnight. Russia went after Ukraine's energy infrastructure once more. Got a notion they're not going to stop until they manage to destroy every energy target within Ukraine that could take years to replace. Permitted to keep after it, Ukraine might start looking eerily similar like North Korea on satellite imagery at night. As outlandish at that sounds, it could actually happen.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,493
36,959
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welp! time for some accidental explosions to start happening on those orc wessels.

Houthi solidarity with ISIS-K works too. The Red Sea already has some great diving spots, but Russia has real talent in establishing biodiversity havens on the seafloor and I see no reason why it should be limited to the Black Sea.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,290
33,570
136
Well there's the tic-toc effect in action overnight. Russia went after Ukraine's energy infrastructure once more. Got a notion they're not going to stop until they manage to destroy every energy target within Ukraine that could take years to replace. Permitted to keep after it, Ukraine might start looking eerily similar like North Korea on satellite imagery at night. As outlandish at that sounds, it could actually happen.

Damage to the Ukrainian grid was much worse in 2022 and in terms of cost these are also pricy efforts for the Russians themselves. This strike program has not delivered the results the Russians want thus far and the Ukrainians are better set for emergency power than ever before.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,251
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Well there's the tic-toc effect in action overnight. Russia went after Ukraine's energy infrastructure once more. Got a notion they're not going to stop until they manage to destroy every energy target within Ukraine that could take years to replace. Permitted to keep after it, Ukraine might start looking eerily similar like North Korea on satellite imagery at night. As outlandish at that sounds, it could actually happen.
This isn't new - Russia has been attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure for over two years now.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,493
36,959
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From what I've read they are much more concerned about Russian long range SAMs than the R-37. Not saying it isn't a worry but perhaps not the biggest one for them in practice.

Ukraine does seem to be hunting for both more F-16 frames and another plane. A number of years back they were negotiating with the Swedes to buy and produce Gripen. Supposedly they are talking again more intensely now that Sweden is a NATO member. It will be a pain for them to add a 2nd new type but it's a hedge against anything going wrong in the US politically. The MLUs aren't going to last forever either so a longer term plan is needed.

Threats with persistance are usually more troublesome, it's true. R-37 has taken out a lot of Ukrainian pilots, it's reputation is well deserved. They'd love to see a "compromised Khibiny" like tech victory for Ukraine over it, or maybe a clone to fire back at the orcs.

I get the feeling Sweden is going to end up keeping their Gripens. Easier for France to be that 2nd option/hedge for sure. Bigger industry base for it, and not right next to Russia.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,290
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Threats with persistance are usually more troublesome, it's true. R-37 has taken out a lot of Ukrainian pilots, it's reputation is well deserved. They'd love to see a "compromised Khibiny" like tech victory for Ukraine over it, or maybe a clone to fire back at the orcs.

I get the feeling Sweden is going to end up keeping their Gripens. Easier for France to be that 2nd option/hedge for sure. Bigger industry base for it, and not right next to Russia.

The Swedes have been paying to build C/Ds they don't need to keep the line open at Saab while the E production ramps up. So they likely have some older C/Ds they could easily part with and even transfer the entire production line to Ukraine when the Es hit full rate.

The French could have done Mirages a while ago, certainly after the F-16s were ok'd, but don't really seem inclined.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,493
7,547
136
It's the range, stupid.

A sobering look at the coming of the F-16s. I like the author. He's always detailed and balanced -- as far as I can tell - and seems to have his finger on the pulse of this war's developments, day to day, week to week.
Sounds like Russia now has the military tech advantage, thanks to their glide bombs.
And, the key determination, there will be no answer to the 120km aerial standoff distance needed to secure the frontline.
Dark days ahead this year as what remains of Ukraine's men are ground to pieces by aerial bombardment.

I would suggest NATO move in to secure the right bank of the Dnipro. No fly zone, the works.
Unless NATO would rather engage Russia on the approach to Poland in western Ukraine.
For if no one secures at least Lviv, providing a mass resettlement camp, then 10s of millions of refugees are going to crush Europe.

Holding the Dnipro is the best option for Europe's future. Engaging Russia there will cause the fewest deaths and provide the most stability to the region.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
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36,959
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I wish everyone would start production in Ukraine. While I'm wishing it'd be great for French walk to match French talk, would certainly give them more credibility when giving Germany the business I think. With native SCALP and Hammer support and Ukraine running out of Su-24Ms, this really needs to be a part of the 'croissant of consequences.'

I don't know what Macron is waiting for. He certainly seems to understand what is at stake, sounds pretty done with Putin's bullshit and Hitler mimicry. He could give Ukraine 20 Mirages with a swoop of his pen, with maybe all 55 of their upgraded Ds soon and it wouldn't endanger French security given their Rafale roll out. Those 2000Ds could probably be integrated into existing training in Romania within a couple months.

Zelenskyy and Budanov say it's still being discussed. I think they don't want to bother with the C models, over age and no SCALP, that it might be a point of contention. I'd like to see Paris take a good hard look at Denmark. Those Danes didn't just send Ukraine some artillery. They sent all their artillery to Ukraine. France should be able to spare Mirages already being replaced, even the upgraded ones good until 2030. C'mon Macron, help French taxpayers lock in those decommissioning savings now.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,251
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I wish everyone would start production in Ukraine. While I'm wishing it'd be great for French walk to match French talk, would certainly give them more credibility when giving Germany the business I think. With native SCALP and Hammer support and Ukraine running out of Su-24Ms, this really needs to be a part of the 'croissant of consequences.'

I don't know what Macron is waiting for. He certainly seems to understand what is at stake, sounds pretty done with Putin's bullshit and Hitler mimicry. He could give Ukraine 20 Mirages with a swoop of his pen, with maybe all 55 of their upgraded Ds soon and it wouldn't endanger French security given their Rafale roll out. Those 2000Ds could probably be integrated into existing training in Romania within a couple months.

Zelenskyy and Budanov say it's still being discussed. I think they don't want to bother with the C models, over age and no SCALP, that it might be a point of contention. I'd like to see Paris take a good hard look at Denmark. Those Danes didn't just send Ukraine some artillery. They sent all their artillery to Ukraine. France should be able to spare Mirages already being replaced, even the upgraded ones good until 2030. C'mon Macron, help French taxpayers lock in those decommissioning savings now.
I think one consideration is that if you give Ukraine like five different types of jets (that fulfill a similar purpose) that's going to create a training and logistics problem.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,290
33,570
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I think one consideration is that if you give Ukraine like five different types of jets (that fulfill a similar purpose) that's going to create a training and logistics problem.

Yep, they are not going to want to operate more than 2 different western fighters. Whatever they get next besides F-16s they probably want a long term strategy for including technology transfer and a production line. That may be what's holding up the French. The Swedes are more likely to make that deal.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
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I think one consideration is that if you give Ukraine like five different types of jets (that fulfill a similar purpose) that's going to create a training and logistics problem.

Absolutely it is, but they need a European source and the F-16s aren't showing up fast enough. French or Swedes, one of them needs to step up, get it done. I've always preferred Gripen Cs and Ds for them, still do, even if Germany might puss out on Taurus.

Getting some multi role love would be great, but the idea is to supplement the shrunken numbers of Su-24M available to Ukraine. Ukraine needs to be able to sling smart cruise missiles and glide bombs, and a Mirage 2000D can do that. As K said supporting two non native fighters is likely to be the maximum.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,290
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Absolutely it is, but they need a European source and the F-16s aren't showing up fast enough. French or Swedes, one of them needs to step up, get it done. I've always preferred Gripen Cs and Ds for them, still do, even if Germany might puss out on Taurus.

Getting some multi role love would be great, but the idea is to supplement the shrunken numbers of Su-24M available to Ukraine. Ukraine needs to be able to sling smart cruise missiles and glide bombs, and a Mirage 2000D can do that. As K said supporting two non native fighters is likely to be the maximum.

Spicy Swedish meatball package:


96818416e17e3a000f8251361374e761.jpg
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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Young Grasshopper

Senior member
Nov 9, 2007
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Zelensky confirms the US unhappy with their refinery strike program. Correctly points out that it is entirely fair to use Ukrainian made weapons to retaliate in kind against territorial Russia.




Probably has to do with knowing what Russias retaliatory response would be, which is obliterating Ukraines power grid, which is what is going on now.

Not just going for the substations like a couple years ago guys(which can be repaired fairly quickly), now they’re going directly for the thermal/hydro plants.

Fuck around and find out indeed.