Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[cytg111]

I would strongly recommended that the Euros have a very classified high level conversation amongst themselves about the political feasibility of building a shared nuclear arsenal and the IRBMs/stealth ALCMs to carry it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769686319645569182

Wonder what good old Deripaska has been up to lately. Has he been made whole yet?

 

[fskimospy]

There have been various proposals for a "Eurobomb" over the decades so these conversations would not be starting from zero. They'd have to figure out a structure that works for them and negates inside interference with the deterrent or misuse. It would certainly have to satisfy the nations in Central and Eastern Europe as being credible.

South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan should also have ready to go plans for a nuclear breakout because if Trump becomes president again he will betray them all.

I have read plans about this too but none of them seemed feasible to me as I don't know how you can effectively decentralize control among multiple nations here. Like even though the US guarantees other countries under our nuclear umbrella we retain final decision making authority as to their use.

Regardless, I agree with you that those countries should be preparing their own nuclear arsenal as the events of the last 20 years or so have shown that nuclear weapons are the only real defense against aggression. There's a reason Iraq and Ukraine got invaded and North Korea did not.

 

[K1052]

I have read plans about this too but none of them seemed feasible to me as I don't know how you can effectively decentralize control among multiple nations here. Like even though the US guarantees other countries under our nuclear umbrella we retain final decision making authority as to their use.

Regardless, I agree with you that those countries should be preparing their own nuclear arsenal as the events of the last 20 years or so have shown that nuclear weapons are the only real defense against aggression. There's a reason Iraq and Ukraine got invaded and North Korea did not.

Strike authority would probably have to be stripped down to a few nations (maybe 3-5?) on a rotating basis and each nation would need to be in good standing with the EU to qualify for a decision making slot (no Orban for instance). Require a simple majority for deployment in case somebody balks or a current member is decapitated. It's not optimal but likely still credible.

As for an arsenal hiding something like the French S3 in purpose built rail cars would probably be the ideal and really hard for the Russians to keep track of.

 

[skyking]

tying it to the rail system would be a mistake, IMO.
Build something that fits in a standard shipping container. Now it is truly impossible to sort out.
It can be on rail, truck, ship. Good luck with that!
I picture a surface launched cruise missile. The lid unzips on the container, the launcher elevates and there you go.
EDIT: Re @Brovane That would also be a wicked system for the ABM. You can have them moving about and forward, so they are more effective.

 

[Brovane]

Strike authority would probably have to be stripped down to a few nations (maybe 3-5?) on a rotating basis and each nation would need to be in good standing with the EU to qualify for a decision making slot (no Orban for instance). Require a simple majority for deployment in case somebody balks or a current member is decapitated. It's not optimal but likely still credible.

As for an arsenal hiding something like the French S3 in purpose built rail cars would probably be the ideal and really hard for the Russians to keep track of.

If EU cannot figure out how to make this work then maybe a further investment into ABM's might be prudent. A couple of strategically placed Aegis Ashore sites (Or something equivalent) would make Russia nuclear attack targeting much more difficult.

 

[K1052]

If EU cannot figure out how to make this work then maybe a further investment into ABM's might be prudent. A couple of strategically placed Aegis Ashore sites (Or something equivalent) would make Russia nuclear attack targeting much more difficult.

The Germans have bought Arrow 3 from Israel. Should probably consider a license for EU firms to produce locally so that systems can be transferred internally in the bloc.

 

[K1052]

New model assault golf cart brought to you by 2nd army in the world:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769744897580392834

 

[IronWing]

tying it to the rail system would be a mistake, IMO.
Build something that fits in a standard shipping container. Now it is truly impossible to sort out.
It can be on rail, truck, ship. Good luck with that!
I picture a surface launched cruise missile. The lid unzips on the container, the launcher elevates and there you go.
EDIT: Re @Brovane That would also be a wicked system fo the ABM. You can have them moving about and forward, so they are more effective.

They'd lose it.

With the security that moves with nukes, it would be impossible to hide. It's really better this way. I'd rather rely on security than anonymity.

 

[skyking]

you don't put security on it. Move it with a truck with a sleeper.
Sleeper is gutted and fitted with some crew seats for the team. It looks like any other truck on the road now.
There are loads of nuke moving around this country with no security that way.
Anonymity is the best. It works for the cartels.

 

[K1052]

EU boosts lethal defense aid by 5B and the money can be used to buy arms outside the bloc.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1769748716917780934

 

[cytg111]

Fucking hell. Bout fucking time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[rommelrommel]

Aside from them needing a zero on that number, but at least this is progress.

 

[kage69]

So our friends 'nord a da border' are stepping up again too. Canada to donate 800 SkyRanger R70 drones to Ukraine. Cliffs: big enough to drop shit on orcs, built to handle inclement weather and the cold better.

Sounds like they're going to greenlight Budanov's request for the 83,000 Hydra rockets Canada was about to recycle too. Score. Not all of them have warheads Ottawa says, but that's still probably a lot that can be used as is or qualify for APKWS kits. The rest have parts and propulsion that can be retasked for drones and their payloads.

Oh, Canada. Good one eh? You guys are alright, fer sure. I don't care what those hosers in Denmark say. Merci cuz.

 

[misuspita]

@rommelrommel
Let's start somewhere and then progress, shall we?

 

[Jaskalas]

Single way shared would work would be a-la-NATO style. Anyone attacked requests and the rest of the pack launch the warheads

Would you "end the world" for somebody else being attacked?
To launch almost certainly means your own death. Why would you do that?

No one will defend another, even in conventional war. Let alone nuclear war. Russia has proven this.
Alliances are dead and it is everyone for themselves. Which consequently and eventually means a vast increase in the number of nuclear weapons in the world. North Korea and Iran are merely ahead of the pack. The rest of the world will follow.

 

[fskimospy]

Would you "end the world" for somebody else being attacked?
To launch almost certainly means your own death. Why would you do that?

No one will defend another, even in conventional war. Let alone nuclear war. Russia has proven this.
Alliances are dead and it is everyone for themselves. Which consequently and eventually means a vast increase in the number of nuclear weapons in the world. North Korea and Iran are merely ahead of the pack. The rest of the world will follow.

Alliances aren’t dead, that’s nonsense. There’s a reason Russia attacked Ukraine and not their other neighbors.

 

[Drach]

There’s a reason Russia attacked Ukraine and not their other neighbors.

Russia has had a military presence in several neighboring countries wanted or not.
Moldova, Georgia and Armenia are a few.

 

[Jaskalas]

Alliances aren’t dead, that’s nonsense. There’s a reason Russia attacked Ukraine and not their other neighbors.

Yeah, it's called Crimea.

Russia views Ukraine as existential for the Black Sea Fleet. Not to mention second largest country in Europe. All that land and resource to exploit. All those people to subjugate. Target rich environment. Plus their rejection of Russia's corrupt control over them in 2014 kind of forced Russia's hand. Before that Ukraine was just another Belarus. In Nov 2016 we showed our weakness, but Trump's defeat in 2020 set the war campaign into motion. No more useful stooge to ensure steady progress against NATO. Was time for Vlad the Butcher to take more direct action.

Ukraine is a vital first step in growing Russia and flooding Europe with refugees. If Europe can be further destabilized and the US goes back in the tank.... NATO will be attacked, and not all its members will be defending. Some may even assist Russia.

Then there is the US's pledge to Asia.
You think Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea can count on us to protect them? Lies.

 

[you2]

Yeah, it's called Crimea.

Russia views Ukraine as existential for the Black Sea Fleet. Not to mention second largest country in Europe. All that land and resource to exploit. All those people to subjugate. Target rich environment. Plus their rejection of Russia's corrupt control over them in 2014 kind of forced Russia's hand. Before that Ukraine was just another Belarus. In Nov 2016 we showed our weakness, but Trump's defeat in 2020 set the war campaign into motion. No more useful stooge to ensure steady progress against NATO. Was time for Vlad the Butcher to take more direct action.

Ukraine is a vital first step in growing Russia and flooding Europe with refugees. If Europe can be further destabilized and the US goes back in the tank.... NATO will be attacked, and not all its members will be defending. Some may even assist Russia.

Then there is the US's pledge to Asia.
You think Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea can count on us to protect them? Lies.

I think i disagree; i think Russia views destructino of a democratic Ukraine because otherwise it can mean the end of Russia as it exist today. More precisely given the close ties between Ukraine and Russian people; what do you think would happen in Russia if overtime more and more 'common' or 'everyday' Russian was exposed to an alternative form of life. Currently it is mostly the elite that sees the other side side of the rainbow and the elite or at least the well to do have a lot to suffer if they even moderately rebel against the current govt but the common folks.... well all they have to suffer is the lost of a tyrant.
-
Back to Crimea; well that is just a step into dissolution of a democratic Ukraine as was the 'rebellion' in the east. Age old Russian strategy to destroy independent countries.

 

[rommelrommel]

Yeah, it's called Crimea.

Russia views Ukraine as existential for the Black Sea Fleet. Not to mention second largest country in Europe. All that land and resource to exploit. All those people to subjugate. Target rich environment. Plus their rejection of Russia's corrupt control over them in 2014 kind of forced Russia's hand. Before that Ukraine was just another Belarus. In Nov 2016 we showed our weakness, but Trump's defeat in 2020 set the war campaign into motion. No more useful stooge to ensure steady progress against NATO. Was time for Vlad the Butcher to take more direct action.

Ukraine is a vital first step in growing Russia and flooding Europe with refugees. If Europe can be further destabilized and the US goes back in the tank.... NATO will be attacked, and not all its members will be defending. Some may even assist Russia.

Then there is the US's pledge to Asia.
You think Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea can count on us to protect them? Lies.

Do you think a western aligned Ukraine was actually a thread to Sevastopol?

 

[fskimospy]

Yeah, it's called Crimea.

Russia views Ukraine as existential for the Black Sea Fleet. Not to mention second largest country in Europe. All that land and resource to exploit. All those people to subjugate. Target rich environment. Plus their rejection of Russia's corrupt control over them in 2014 kind of forced Russia's hand. Before that Ukraine was just another Belarus. In Nov 2016 we showed our weakness, but Trump's defeat in 2020 set the war campaign into motion. No more useful stooge to ensure steady progress against NATO. Was time for Vlad the Butcher to take more direct action.

Ukraine is a vital first step in growing Russia and flooding Europe with refugees. If Europe can be further destabilized and the US goes back in the tank.... NATO will be attacked, and not all its members will be defending. Some may even assist Russia.

Then there is the US's pledge to Asia.
You think Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea can count on us to protect them? Lies.

The countries bordering Russia disagree with you. What do you think you know that they don’t?

 

[RnR_au]

Russian reasons for invasion of Ukraine (2014 Edition);
* Extensive gas resources off the coast of Crimea. Ukraine was developing them. Not good for Russia
* "The Sevastopol port is one of the few warm deep water ports available to Russia in the Black Sea.". The Russians were paying for the lease of the port to the Ukrainians. If the Ukrainians kept moving towards the EU, how long would they have access to this port?
* Ukraine was moving towards the West. So pressure the Ukrainians to remain at least neutral or come back into the fold of Russian sphere of influence.

Russian reasons for invasion of Ukraine (2022 Edition);
* Falling popularity of Putin. He had seen a nice bump in popularity back in 2014.
* Ukrainian PM had very low approval rating. In the low 20's percentage if I recall correctly.
* Ukrainian army was thought to be a joke as seen in their response during the 2014 actions.
* It would effectively silence the international condemnation over Russian occupation of Crimea and Donbas
* Control over 30% of world grain production.
* Further control over oil and gas fields off the Ukrainian coast in the Black Sea
* The Ukrainian people love the Russian people. They would not fight their brothers and sisters.
* Ukraine was moving further towards the West.
* The West was weak and divided and the EU was very dependent on Russian gas. They would grumble but not support Ukraine.

 

[misuspita]

Would you "end the world" for somebody else being attacked?
To launch almost certainly means your own death. Why would you do that?

I don't think you comprehend how small countries are in Europe. If russia launches a big one, it will certainly spill over to the neighbours. The Cernobal was just a accident and it affected a lot of neighboring countries, in the case of a determined attack, I'm very sure the radioactive clouds will cover many countries. So in the case Russia attacks with nuculars, there is no danger "we" are gonna "end the world", it has already started. And yes, I'd be ok to launch some MIRVs on Moscow and St Petersburg, that would end all russia as it is now, if they do launch first. These are for defence only, for MAD, not to attack. If Russia does attack, then it deserves to die also, because we'd already be dying here.

Also, that's why the Eastern Europe understand better than anyone the Russian mentality and have warned the west that they are sleeping in their shoes but no-one understood until it was too late. Even now you see stupid decisions on all levels, self imposed red lines, Biden trickling help, Scholz being a russian tool, Macron woke up in the 23rd hour..... while russia threw everything but nuclear weapons in this war. Yet. Well that and biological warfare, but that's dangerous for them too, it can easily go sideways and their medical protection is shit.

Poland will be the most armed country in the Europe in a few years. Not Germany, not UK, nor France. Why do you think that? Cause they understand russia.

 

[K1052]

New German shell commitment from their own stocks, the Czech initiative, and their arms industry.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770060255763763320

 

[K1052]

If I recall correctly there is something like 30B euro of accumulated interest on seized Russian assets in Europe. Directing all of this to arms and munitions would be a major shot in the arm for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770082228480925741