Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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What may be most notable of that idea, is not the demand itself, but the timing behind it.
Putin has need of, and has plans for, human meat waves... 19 years from now.

This war does not end in Ukraine.

Putin's been pushing this stuff for a long time, I doubt it's tied to some theoretical military adventure in a year where it is real likely he is no longer alive.

Though I do suspect that Russian casualties in Ukraine are extremely high and that AFU reports of taking out 600-1000 Russian soldiers a day are not all that far off the mark.
 
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misuspita

Senior member
Jul 15, 2006
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IIRC they have what are essentially really big hair dryers to inflate them with, heats them up. You can leave portions of the decoy with less material to mimic hot spots, and a slow vent will look like engine exhaust to thermals.
Hairdryers are hot because they have a heating element , else they are just airpumps or ventilators. So the fact they are inflated with a big air pump doesn't automatically mean it's also heated
 

Young Grasshopper

Senior member
Nov 9, 2007
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The belonged to the Soviet Union which no longer existed. Anyway the Ukrainians had them and possession is 9/10ths of the law.

If North Korea can brew up nukes from scratch Ukraine certainly could operationalize old Soviet warheads or rebuild them if required. Not like the required expertise was exactly hard to find after the fall of the USSR.


So they were in possession of unusable nukes. Got it.

And no, Ukraine could not ‘operationalize’ or ‘rebuild’ nuclear bombs. That’s not the way it works. Even western controlled Wikipedia will tell you this:

In 1994, Ukraine, citing its inability to circumvent Russian launch codes, reached an understanding to transfer and destroy these weapons, and become a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).[5][6]
 

dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
14,588
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So they were in possession of unusable nukes. Got it.

And no, Ukraine could not ‘operationalize’ or ‘rebuild’ nuclear bombs. That’s not the way it works. Even western controlled Wikipedia will tell you this:

WOPR could have cracked the codes in a few days.

Also, Russia agreed to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine at its current borders and never use weapons against them. Obviously that was worth far less than the paper it was written on.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,889
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WOPR could have cracked the codes in a few days.

Also, Russia agreed to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine at its current borders and never use weapons against them. Obviously that was worth far less than the paper it was written on.
I like how these clowns are like 'Russia just wants to negotiate but Ukraine refuses!' as if Ukraine hasn't already repeatedly experienced what Russian guarantees are worth.

This has of course turned into a huge problem for Russia. Since their promises are utterly worthless it's hard for them to negotiate even if they wanted to - what idiot would believe them?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,008
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So they were in possession of unusable nukes. Got it.

And no, Ukraine could not ‘operationalize’ or ‘rebuild’ nuclear bombs. That’s not the way it works. Even western controlled Wikipedia will tell you this:

Sure, nukes are rebuilt all the time. They have to be as the tritium decays.

The biggest technological barrier would've been obtaining a fresh supply of tritium but since Ukraine has quite a few nuclear reactors this would not be insurmountable.
 

KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
29,107
41,982
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trans siberian railroad isn't cut but it does leave only one way to ship by rail from China (BAM Railway which is about a 3 hour detour?)
 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
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trans siberian railroad isn't cut but it does leave only one way to ship by rail from China (BAM Railway which is about a 3 hour detour?)
Yesterday I read references to the route that was bombed as the only railway from China that is 'of note'. This could possibly be a reference to the weight limit. So yes, there are other routes, but these other routes may have issues from a military logistics perspective.

I'm just guessing here though.

Edit: a good summary;
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Based on recent comments from Zelensky is seems Ukraine intends to mostly transition to a defensive posture, including building numerous fortifications in the east of the country. Given their experience with their southern offensive and watching Putin throw away huge amounts of men and material in Avdiivka deciding to just let the Russians come and get killed probably seems like a sensible option.

If they can tighten up air defenses it could be an effective long term strategy until Moscow decides to give up on their political goals.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,415
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Based on recent comments from Zelensky is seems Ukraine intends to mostly transition to a defensive posture, including building numerous fortifications in the east of the country. Given their experience with their southern offensive and watching Putin throw away huge amounts of men and material in Avdiivka deciding to just let the Russians come and get killed probably seems like a sensible option.

If they can tighten up air defenses it could be an effective long term strategy until Moscow decides to give up on their political goals.
Defending the North and East is a massive undertaking, but the only sensible position they can take.

Pushing South and trying to cut Crimea off is still possible, but it won't happen until Russia suffers from more attrition. 1k losses per day isn't much compared to WW2 numbers. So Russia just fills the losses with more men. Garrisons them in occupied land, filling up all the cities and towns along the way. Manning trenches, etc. There are A LOT of Russians between the frontline and where Ukraine would like to go. Every step they take, as difficult as the previous.

Major movement will require a breakdown of logistics for the defending side. Ukraine will never achieve that in the East. It will be difficult, but still possible in the South.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Defending the North and East is a massive undertaking, but the only sensible position they can take.

Pushing South and trying to cut Crimea off is still possible, but it won't happen until Russia suffers from more attrition. 1k losses per day isn't much compared to WW2 numbers. So Russia just fills the losses with more men. Garrisons them in occupied land, filling up all the cities and towns along the way. Manning trenches, etc. There are A LOT of Russians between the frontline and where Ukraine would like to go. Every step they take, as difficult as the previous.

Major movement will require a breakdown of logistics for the defending side. Ukraine will never achieve that in the East. It will be difficult, but still possible in the South.

The oblasts Ukraine controls in the north and east now have millions of mines installed along the border with Belarus and Russia. This is no longer a viable direction from which to attack for Moscow. So they mostly need to worry about the Luhansk-Donetsk front and to a lesser degree the south. Putin's near term political goal is to secure the rest of the Donbas and the AFU is likely to devote themselves to making that impossible and extraordinary costly to try.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,142
36,003
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Rheinmetall plans to start APC and IVF manufacturing in Ukraine as early as next year.


Excellent news. Ukrainian Lynxs will be fearsome opponents. I wonder if they'll go 30 or 35mm. Will Israel let them have Spike? Seems to me they should empathize with Ukraine's existential crisis even more now.

Baykar, Rheinmetall, BAE, some French and Czech companies whose names elude me atm, probably others I haven't heard of... Zelenskyy's push to form Ukraine into a fortified arsenal is happening.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,008
32,958
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Excellent news. Ukrainian Lynxs will be fearsome opponents. I wonder if they'll go 30 or 35mm. Will Israel let them have Spike? Seems to me they should empathize with Ukraine's existential crisis even more now.

Baykar, Rheinmetall, BAE, some French and Czech companies whose names elude me atm, probably others I haven't heard of... Zelenskyy's push to form Ukraine into a fortified arsenal is happening.

I’m sure Israel won’t let them have Spike but they may not want it anyway. Maybe they’ll use Stugna-P 152mm.
 

Young Grasshopper

Senior member
Nov 9, 2007
892
289
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Based on recent comments from Zelensky is seems Ukraine intends to mostly transition to a defensive posture, including building numerous fortifications in the east of the country. Given their experience with their southern offensive and watching Putin throw away huge amounts of men and material in Avdiivka deciding to just let the Russians come and get killed probably seems like a sensible option.

If they can tighten up air defenses it could be an effective long term strategy until Moscow decides to give up on their political goals.


In other words, they can kiss those territories under Russian control goodbye. Of course had they not backed out of their peace agreement with Russia, they would still have them, and 300k Ukrainians would still be alive.

I guess this is confirmation the ‘counteroffensive’ is over.

🤡


Nearly $100 billion of our tax dollars they’ve been given in aid and the result? The Russians expand their territory.

That’s what ‘winning’ looks like.

🤡
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,008
32,958
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In other words, they can kiss those territories under Russian control goodbye. Of course had they not backed out of their peace agreement with Russia, they would still have them, and 300k Ukrainians would still be alive.

I guess this is confirmation the ‘counteroffensive’ is over.

🤡


Nearly $100 billion of our tax dollars they’ve been given in aid and the result? The Russians expand their territory.

That’s what ‘winning’ looks like.

🤡

Kyiv in thee days, eh comrade?
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,142
36,003
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I’m sure Israel won’t let them have Spike but they may not want it anyway. Maybe they’ll use Stugna-P 152mm.

Keepin my fingers crossed. If given the option, I don't see them turning their noses up at a more accurate fire and forget weapon that can have 3 times the range. Those Skifs do pack a bigger punch though, physically it's a larger projectile. Makes me think they might have space contraints given the launcher on Lynx is internal.

Long as they have something with a tandem that works I guess
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,142
36,003
136
In other words, they can kiss those territories under Russian control goodbye. Of course had they not backed out of their peace agreement with Russia, they would still have them, and 300k Ukrainians would still be alive.

I guess this is confirmation the ‘counteroffensive’ is over.

🤡


Nearly $100 billion of our tax dollars they’ve been given in aid and the result? The Russians expand their territory.

That’s what ‘winning’ looks like.

🤡

Haha!

The Russian military at less than 50% of it's strength? NATO putting on 80lbs of muscle? The Russians having lost more than half what they stole? Russia's international pariah status as a terrorist state and war criminal? The gutting of the Black Sea Fleet? The end of their oil based power? The exposing of their military tech as completely inferior to Western counterparts which destroyed their export business? Still got your head up your ass and acting smug about it huh? Sad.

At least you've embraced your clown status here cyka. I think they call that growth. Good for you.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
68,970
26,827
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So they were in possession of unusable nukes. Got it.

And no, Ukraine could not ‘operationalize’ or ‘rebuild’ nuclear bombs. That’s not the way it works. Even western controlled Wikipedia will tell you this:
Given that MAD had to work without question, the U.S. launch code system was designed to deny access only for someone with a limited time to act (the time it would take the U.S. to response to the seizure of a launch control center, silo, or weapons storage facility). In other words, there was a bias toward launch built into the system. I would be quite surprised if the Soviet system was any more complicated. I doubt the Ukrainians couldn't have worked through the system in short order if they had chosen to. At the time, Ukraine was under enormous pressure from both Russia and the West to give up the nukes.
 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
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So apparently it turns out that the train line attacks in the far East of Russia, did not occur on the lines to China;

the rail line attack (red circle) will hurt russia cutting it off from the far east for a little while...
the railroad attacked (brown), goes to the far east russia, not china.
BUT
it will not hurt trade with china or north korea... its the wrong rail road for that.. (maroon)
but with the success of the first 2 attacks means that the long unguarded rail road is now a good target for more attacks.

there is NO way to protect all the rail line, no way to really stop attacks. its too big and the force needed to protect it in the center of the country is in.... ukraine.
1701515432434.png

Source

A test run? Whats in the far East of Russia that Ukraine would love to slow down coming to the West? Or is it just part of a general harassment campaign.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,543
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In other words, they can kiss those territories under Russian control goodbye. Of course had they not backed out of their peace agreement with Russia, they would still have them, and 300k Ukrainians would still be alive.

I guess this is confirmation the ‘counteroffensive’ is over.

🤡


Nearly $100 billion of our tax dollars they’ve been given in aid and the result? The Russians expand their territory.

That’s what ‘winning’ looks like.

🤡

see, the world you live in isn't even interesting. Please try to be a better fucking moron.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,543
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So apparently it turns out that the train line attacks in the far East of Russia, did not occur on the lines to China;


View attachment 89702

Source

A test run? Whats in the far East of Russia that Ukraine would love to slow down coming to the West? Or is it just part of a general harassment campaign.

It slows down the meat wagons, depriving Putin of fresh deliveries to Ukraine of indigenous unwanteds, saving Ukrainian bullets, at least.